The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25 million people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April.

A widely available vaccine is the most important hurdle to getting the economy back to normal. No vaccine, no V-shaped recovery. If the superforecasters are correct this will be a triumph for mankind and for life as we once knew it. To foretell the conclusion – a return to normality looks under-priced.

F Scott Fitzgerald said: “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” To psychologists this would be a form of cognitive dissonance and we think the market has it.

In theory, the market is forward looking and sees an economic rebound. The market has rallied, but the companies leading the charge benefit most if we never return to normal. Let me explain…

The leaders have been the lockdown winners from e-commerce to subscription-based technology businesses. We have worked up a sweat on Peloton, whilst waiting for our Amazon Fresh delivery to eat dinner in front of Netflix. Imagine saying that sentence a decade ago!