“A February Super Snow Moon? Its warmer than a Scottish Summer out there…”
In the headlines this morning…
I note with some delight Bernie Sanders plans to stand for US President. One of my US chums sent me the story of the Half-a-Bernie sign propped up against a wall. Someone had cut it neatly in two and left the wooden handle affixed to the remaining half. Attached was a note: “Dear Bernie; you had a sign and I didn’t, so I took half. I’m sure you understand.”
I did feel something of a market judder y’day – just a moment where it felt like all the negativity was on the verge of swamping markets. Whether is the cumulative effect of US rate path expectations (Fed today), China Trade Wars, Trump vs Europe, (ECB tomorrow), Brexit, and all the rest.. or the UK mid-term holidays, the whole market feels thin and rudderless. At least Wal-Mart surprised to the upside! One of my top stock technical commentators is my old buddy Steve Previs of Mint who calls it “complacent.” That’s never a good thing. His charts are telling him to look for a “corrective C wave” but for now he’s patient as “FOMO” (Fear of Missing Out) continues to drive the current trend.
I am fortunate enough to work with some very bright folk here at Shard. Yesterday we were shooting the breeze on the current market uncertainties, threats and fears. We came to the conclusion we’ll know the moment we hit the Reefs of Crisis when we hear the crashing wail of market liquidity vanishing. What’s that sound – it’s the Macro Liquidity Storm! Coming to a market near you. Maybe Very Soon!
As always, we try to find positives in all the bad stuff. We found ourselves wondering why EM markets are higher when the Global Growth outlook looks to be slowing, uncertainty is rising, and the potential risk opportunities could be multiple. Why? Maybe things are only so bad because they are going to get better?
