Thought for the month ahead:  While many Americans focus on who the Democrats might nominate for president next year, President Trump and China’s President Xi hope to conclude a trade deal.  The markets are counting on it already, and they expect to avoid further tariffs on EU autos and to eventually see the lifting of all tariffs.  One of the reasons President Xi has held off concluding a deal is his fear that mercurial President Trump might back out at the last minute, causing much loss of face.  Of note so far, only in Washington, is that many Republican senators and congressmen are pushing the White House hard to lift all of the tariffs.  That may not happen a quickly as they would like, but I do expect it to happen before next year.

Monetary Policy:  The Federal Open Market Committee will conclude its two-day meeting this afternoon with a statement at 2 PM EDT and Chair Powell’s news conference at 2:30 PM.  I can forward a transcript of Mr. Powell’s remarks upon request.  In additional to putting off any further rate increases until at least the end of this year, the Fed has launched a review of how it might respond to the next economic downturn.  See yesterday’s New York Timesarticlefor more.