Blain’s Morning Porridge – The Property Chronicle
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Blain’s Morning Porridge

The Macro View

“Anything of yours is mine, and what is mine me’s own..”

In the headlines this morning…

What next for this sad benighted isle? The one thing certain is more Brexit uncertainty. It probably gets worse long before it gets better!

As the clock ticks down to the April 12th second deadline, the political maths dictates there is simply no deal to be made. Logic would suggest the two options that came closest in last week’s parliamentary debate: soft Brexit or a second referendum would be likely outcomes, but this is Brexit. Logic be damned. Too many MPs – “sp**ktrumpters” being my favourite description so far – with too much ego…  

28 Tory Hard Brexiteers said no last week. Labour MPs will not shift – only a tiny number voted for the deal. The EU is planning, and is apparently reconciled to, a no-deal crash-out Brexit. Soft Brexit looks an unlikely compromise. A crash out-no deal could be avoided, but at the likely cost of an election, (with Europe agreeing that’s grounds for extension), or promises of a fraxious no-deal second referendum. I’m just guessing. 

I read the Sunday papers for guidance, and they don’t have a clue. They are full of stories about the self-immolation of the Conservative party – how entryist UKIP rightists have seized control of local constituencies, are deselecting waverers, and have a whole slate of mad-dogs set to unleash on the electorate. Yikes. 

We might be worrying about the wrong side of the political spectrum: what are Labour up to? Corbyn wants the election, but where would he take us? Labour’s current poll lead translates to a dozen or so MPs short of a majority – meaning he’d have to pander to the Scot Nats who will demand an Andrex Quilted Brexit so soft it feels just like Remain? Who would want to share power with SNP leader Ian Blackford? That’s one step more insane than dealing with the Norn Iron Taliban, the DUP…

The Macro View

About Bill Blain

Bill Blain

Bill Blain is Strategist for Shard Capital, a leading investment firm. Bill is a well known broadcaster and commentator, with over 30-years experience working for leading investment banks and brokerages at senior levels. He's been closely involved in the growth and development of the global fixed income markets, and pioneered complex financial products including capital, asset-backed securities and private placements. Increasingly, he's involved in the Real and Alternative Assets sector seeking to explain their complexity, how to generate decorrelated returns, and create liquidity in non-listed assets. Bill is a passionate sailor, talentless painter, plays guitar badly, is learning the bagpipes, and built a train-set in his attic.

Articles by Bill Blain

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