The debate on higher rates: let battle commence – The Property Chronicle
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The debate on higher rates: let battle commence Top economists Peter Warburton and Robin Marshall debate where rates are headed next

The Economist

Robin Marshall has responded to Peter Warburton’s article titled ‘What does the flattening yield curve mean’. 

The first paragraph ends with a perfectly reasonable question about the information content of a flattening yield curve and whether it signals the end of the US/UK expansion. However, the final question about buying bargain basement long-dated bonds seems mis-specified, since the flatness of the curve means an investor gets very little extra yield from buying long-dated bonds (eg, current US 30 year yield is about 3%, but the 10 year yields 2.85%, so pick-up is only 15bp for an extra 20 years of inflation and duration risk) ? It’s more likely to be a “ golden moment” to acquire 7-10 year bonds in that regard.

The Economist

About Robin Marshall

Robin Marshall is currently a Partner and Fixed Income Strategist, at Smith and Williamson investment Management, London. He also advises the Smith and Williamson Global Inflation Linked Bond Fund. He was formerly Managing Director, Economic and Policy Research, at JPMorgan Chase, London, and Chief Economist, Europe, Africa and Middle East. After graduating from Oxford University, Mr Marshall completed the M.Phil in Economics, in Oxford, and lectured in Economics at the University of London.

Articles by Robin Marshall

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