Housing permits, considered a leading indicator for future construction activity and the broader economy, surged to a 15-year high in January. The jump was supported by increases in the dominant single-family category and the multifamily category. Total housing starts did fall for the month, but the drop comes on the heels of a sharp gain […]
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US real estate market cycles, 4Q2020
A physical market cycle analysis of four property typesacross 54 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 4Q2020. GDP ended 2020 at a negative -3.5% annual growth rate, after the largest decline (2Q20) and bounce-back (3Q20) in history. Covid revenue growth, while covid ‘have-not’ firms continued to struggle and downsize, close or go bankrupt. Government stimulus was […]
Investor gossip from NYC – the office evolves
For almost a year, we have personally witnessed friends and colleagues sharing pictures of their working-from-home digs. At the onset of the pandemic, we would see shots of a laptop on a bistro table situated on patios, balconies or even poolside. By last summer, we noticed more people converting under-utilised areas of their homes to […]
The future of the quick-service restaurant industry
“Drive-through and pickup-only is the quick-service restaurant business model of the future.” I remember having that conversation with prospective buyers in 2018 when I was selling a single-tenant Dutch Bros Coffee in Payson, Arizona. For those of you who are unfamiliar with Dutch Bros, it is the largest privately held coffee company in the US. […]
Get ready for the 21st century’s own Roaring Twenties
The Roaring Twenties hold a certain nostalgia in the collective American mindset, harkening back to the days of flappers, speakeasies, and the headiness of the economic boom that preceded the Great Depression. While most have some recollection of the period from their history books, it’s easy to lose sight of what fundamentally fuelled the age. […]
The coming ‘single-tenantisation’ of real estate
As 2021 begins, the real estate world is starting to process and plan for the achievement of herd immunity in the United States – the moment when transmission of covid-19 cases ceases due to mass vaccination and acquired immunity. Whether that occurs in July or December is beside the point; after one of the most […]
How to get it right with REITs
If you plan to play the REITs game next year, here’s what you need to know. “Bad News for REIT Investors” … “Negative Ratings Bias Rises as North American REITs Confront Effects of Covid-19” … “From Bad to Worse for REITs” … It’s not hard to find articles that talk about how unattractive the REITs […]
How I discovered the beauty of private debt
In the early years of my career, I wanted to start my own business. Stories of entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley captured my imagination, and in 1994 I took the plunge. In 2000 we sold our business to a public company, and promptly watched the stock we received in the acquisition drop by about 97% when […]
Five times this year the New York Times accidentally told the truth
The paper of record in 2020 shifted dramatically to the most illiberal stance possible on the virus, pushing for full lockdowns, and ignoring or burying any information that might contradict the case for this unprecedented experiment in social and economic control. This article highlights the exceptions. The first shocking sign of the placing of a […]
Walter Hagen, golf and Florida real estate How the world's most popular golfer was implicated in the Florida land boom
How the world’s most popular golfer was implicated in the Florida land boom. […]