Originally published February 2021. For investors, the recent decline in retail property performance might suggest opportunity for acquiring property at distressed pricing. The challenge for such investors is to identify discounts associated with the covid-induced recession versus discounts associated with the structural distress in the retail sector. Investors might similarly expect distressed opportunity to emerge […]
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The Fed Hits 3,000 Percent Inflation
The US economy was pushed to extremes during the pandemic recession and subsequent recovery. The unemployment rate peaked at 14.7 percent, the highest in the post-World War II period. Inflation reached its highest rate in 40 years, prompting the Fed to raise short-term interest rates to their highest levels since 2007. As of June, the economy hit another dubious milestone: […]
Messi is Moving to Miami: Who’s the Biggest Winner?
In May 2021, one of the best soccer players in the world announced he was coming to play Major League Soccer (MLS). Lionel Messi, currently 36 years old, rejected a record-breaking $400 million a year in order to come to play for Inter Miami Football Club. Messi’s deal not only includes a paycheck of $50-60 million dollars a year, […]
REIT executives outlook in a rising interest rate environment
Recently, Armada ETF Advisors attended the NYU Schack REIT Symposium where multiple REIT CEOs and industry participants spoke on a variety of panels and topics such as interest rates, cap rates and the current lending environment. Speaking on these topics, VICI Properties noted that they continue to focus on transition from offense to defence (and […]
Can the Fed Continue to Fight Inflation without Risking a Financial Crisis?
Originally published May 2023. Since March, we have experienced three of the largest bank failures in United States history. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and New Republic Bank had combined assets worth over half a trillion dollars — roughly equivalent to the combined assets of the 165 banks that failed in 2008 and 2009. The Federal Reserve […]
Pentagon Corrects “Accounting Error.” As Always, the First Casualty of War is the Truth
In June, a spokesperson for the Department of Defense announced that the value of equipment transferred to Ukraine, originally valued at $6 billion, was “corrected” to $3 billion. The prior month, the Pentagon had made a similar correction. Initially, the equipment was valued at replacement cost. That is, the equipment was valued at the cost of […]
Climate change tools
This article was originally published April, 2023 in The Astronomy Cafe. Over the years I have collected a number of online tools that help me keep climate change in perspective. Here are some of my favorites! Riskfactor.com – Just enter your address and it will use a database from FEMA to give you a forecast of […]
Are GOP Presidential Contenders Prepared to Take On the Fed?
As the GOP’s presidential hopefuls formulate their national economic agendas, one question looms large: What are they going to do about the Federal Reserve? America’s central bank has gone off the rails. Its monetary mischief in the wake of COVID-19 caused the largest inflationary surge in 40 years. Its regulators have systematically failed to keep […]
How the WFH movement is changing office values
US office capital value will be 17% below 2021 values by 2030. Having just passed the three-year anniversary of the Covid lockdowns, it is a good moment to take stock of the impact of the pandemic on US office space. Overall, the shift to working from home following the Covid lockdowns has had a clear […]
The Debt Deal
O FRABJOUS DAY! CALLOOH, CALLAY! The debt limit deal takes an enormous load off my mind; weeks of worrying about what we’d do when the economy crashed, and we lose everything and live on the street near a soup kitchen. But now apparently the ship will not sink, and as I understand the deal, the […]