“Trump team weighs surprise tariff cut in hopes of securing China trade deal.” Last night’s Washington Post article led with:
The Trump administration is considering eliminating tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese imports to spur progress toward a trade deal, less than two weeks before a high-level delegation from Beijing is scheduled to arrive in Washington for talks.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in recent weeks has proposed a tariff reduction as an incentive for China to sweeten its offer to the United States, according to two people familiar with the discussions who were not authorized to speak publicly.
Administration hard-liners, including U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer, are opposed to eliminating the tariffs before China has taken irreversible steps to meet U.S. demands.
President Trump last year imposed tariffs on Chinese industrial and consumer goods as leverage in talks aimed at shrinking the U.S. trade deficit and forcing China to abandon discriminatory trading practices.
If negotiations do not succeed by March 1, tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese products are scheduled to rise to 25 percent from 10 percent. Officials now are debating whether to instead eliminate the levies on some or all of the affected Chinese goods.
More in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal article.
Divisions within the Administration are a concern, but, somehow, I expect the March 2 tariff increase to be averted.
Russia sanctions: House disapproval resolution passed overwhelmingly, but the Senate won’t take it up. At 12:40 PM yesterday, the House voted 362-53 in favor of H.J.Res.30 to disapprove of Treasury’s decision to to lift sanctions on three Russian corporations, EN+, Rusal, and ESE, press release. Last Wednesday, the Senate fell three votes short of ending debate on S.J.Res.2, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) disapproval resolution, ending the possibility of overturning the Treasury action.
“Trump may see North Korean official in D.C. about next summit.” Yesterday’s Politico article led with:
A top North Korean official is headed to Washington with plans to meet President Donald Trump and discuss arranging a second summit between the president and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
The official, Kim Yong-chol, is one of North Korea’s top negotiators and a close aide to his country’s dictator. His visit comes as U.S. attempts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program have stalled, despite vague promises made during the first summit.
Kim was flying to the United States from China, a person familiar with the situation confirmed to POLITICO on Thursday. He’s expected to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday. It was not immediately clear when the negotiator would see Trump, but media reports say the North Korean government has demanded that he have a session with the U.S. president.
The North Korean official is also reported to be carrying a letter from Kim Jong Un for Trump. The two leaders have exchanged letters in the past.
U.S. officials have been considering locations for a potential second summit between Kim Jong Un and Trump. Vietnam is reportedly considered a strong possibility.
President Trump’s schedule (EST):
12:45 PM: Meets with Secretary of Treasury Mnuchin.
Shutdown: Vice President Pence and White House Adviser Kushner met with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell last night. I presume this meeting was about trying to find a way out of the shutdown. Senator McConnell (R-KY) is not about to stick his neck out again on reopening the government without a clear public statement from the President. I’ll be watching this morning to see if Mr. McConnell has anything to say on the matter when the Senate reopens at 10 AM. The House is on recess until next Tuesday.
Ways and Means Hearing on the Shutdown Set for January 24th. Wednesday night, Chair Richard Neal (D-CT) invited Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to testify “on the shutdown’s impact on the Department of Treasury and American Taxpayers.” Yesterday, Mnuchin declined, offering “senior Treasury and IRS officials” instead. Neal responded “Out of respect for Treasury and IRS employees, and this committee, I sincerely hope the Secretary reconsiders my request to appear before the committee next week.”
Six Appropriations Bills Set to Pass the House Next Week. H.R.648 would fund most unfunded federal agencies through September 30th. Summaries and more are in yesterday’s press release. As with previous House efforts to reopen the government, the Senate is not expected to take these up.
“Is Trump Trying To Politicize Agricultural Data? Some Former USDA Officials Suspect Yes.” Yesterday’s FiveThirtyEight article led with:
What proportion of U.S. fossil fuel consumption is attributable to our food system? How much are farmers earning from their crops? What percentage of American households have enough food to healthfully feed their members? How would various trade policies affect U.S. agriculture?
When policymakers and other interested parties need answers to these questions, they turn to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. However, ERS is at the center of a heated debate as the USDA moves to reorganize the agency and relocate it outside of Washington, D.C. The USDA says the plan will save money and improve the agency’s ability to serve its stakeholders. Critics, including at least 56 former USDA and federal statistical agency officials, say the plan undermines the agency’s ability to carry out its mission and threatens its independent status.
Unfortunately, this is only the latest example of Administration efforts to undermine government data. The 2020 Census is in jeopardy as are statistics at the EPA, IRS, and many other agencies.
“Will The Shutdown Hurt Trump’s Re-election Chances?” Last night’s FiveThirtyEight analysis by Nate Silver concluded:
There’s plenty of time for Trump’s numbers to improve, but for now, they’re getting worse. So while the shutdown’s consequences may not last into 2020, it has been another step in the wrong direction at a moment when presidents have usually pivoted to the center.
