“Trump Threatens to Bust Border Deal as Shutdown Deadline Nears.” This morning’s Bloomberg article leads with:
Congress has only a few days left to come up with an agreement on border security spending to prevent a government shutdown and may yet see the process upended once President Donald Trump delivers his State of the Union address on Tuesday.
Trump in recent days has repeatedly declared the negotiations a waste of time and said Feb. 1 that his speech to a joint session of Congress would reveal more of his own plans. He suggested that might include a politically and legally fraught emergency declaration to circumvent Congress to begin building a border wall.
While the government has funding to keep operating until Feb. 15, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said the 17 Republicans and Democrats on a House-Senate conference committee need to wrap up their work by Friday to allow time to vote on any plan to resolve the stalemate. While staff members talked over the weekend, real progress isn’t expected until after party meetings on Tuesday.
These negotiations are bound to go to the wire. I don’t expect another shutdown because Republicans in both houses of Congress are so concerned about the electoral consequences of another one that they might go along with a veto override. Of course, none will say that publicly yet.
“For Some Companies, Tax-Cut Gains Are Smaller Than They Once Appeared.” Sunday’s Wall Street Journal article led with:
With earnings season in full swing, investors are starting to learn which companies were overly optimistic about their tax cuts.
Casino chain Las Vegas Sands Corp. has already taken a $727 million hit to its fourth-quarter profit, after a corporate tax regulation proposed in November made the 2017 tax overhaul less favorable than the company expected. International Business Machines Corp. said the same provision reduced its profit by $1.9 billion in the fourth quarter.
As more companies report year-end results in coming weeks, investors can expect more dents in more bottom lines—plus, presumably, at least a few pleasant surprises.
It’s always challenging for researchers to distill real world effects of tax policy changes from other effects, but it will be particularly hard this year because the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changed so much.
Israel anti-boycott bill expected to pass the Senate this week. Last night’s The Hill article stated:
The Senate this week is expected to pass an Israel anti-boycott provision — championed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and tucked into a larger foreign policy package — sending it to the House, where pro-Israel Democrats are eager to consider the issue, even if they oppose the specifics of Rubio’s bill.
Washington Calendar, February 4 – February 8
7 PM, Wednesday, February 6: Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Teacher Town Hall Meeting in D.C.
President Trump’s schedule (EST):
11:45 AM: Daily intelligence briefing; and
12:45 PM: Lunch with Vice President Pence
Wednesday: Dinner with “faith leaders.”
Thursday: Remarks at the National Prayer Breakfast and lunch with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Friday: Annual physical at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.
9 PM, Tuesday, February 5: State of the Union Address. Watch it live on C-SPAN. Yesterday’s Associated Press preview led with:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Facing clear political peril, President Donald Trump will deliver his second State of the Union address at a moment when his bully pulpit is uncertain and his negotiating skills in question after a monthlong government shutdown that exposed fractures in his party and sent his poll numbers tumbling.
Trump hopes to use his Tuesday speech to reset his agenda and begin to gear up for his 2020 re-election campaign. But even as the president promises a theme of unity, his performance is likely to draw cheers from one side of the deeply divided Congress and stony silence from the other.
The Senate will return at 3 PM today, and, at 5:30 PM, will hold three votes on amendments and cloture on S.1, the Strengthening America’s Security in the Middle East Act.
The House will return at noon Tuesday with no votes until Wednesday afternoon on 5 bills from the Suspension Calendar. Thursday afternoon and Friday until 3 PM, the House will take up 4 more bills from the Suspension Calendar and H.R.840, the Veterans’ Access to Child Care Act.
Tuesday 5 9:30 AM U.S. Central Command, Senate Armed Services
10 AM Energy and Mineral Markets, Senate Energy
10 AM “How Primary Care Affects Health Care Costs and Outcomes,” Senate HELP
10 AM MARK-UP, nominations and 4 bills, Senate Environment
10:15 AM Nominations, including Michael Desmond to be IRS Chief Counsel and
Michael Faulkender to be an assistant Treasury secretary for Economic Policy,
Senate Finance
Wednesday 6 9:30 AM Financial Security in Retirement, Senate Aging
10 AM Nominations, including Bill Beach to be BLS Commissioner, Senate HELP
10 AM Worldwide Threats, Senate Armed Services
10 AM 5G Deployment, Senate Commerce
10 AM Improving Retirement Security, House Ways and Means
10 AM Climate Change, House Natural Resources
10 AM Climate Change, House Energy and Commerce
10 AM DOD’s Counterterrorism Approach, House Armed Services
10 AM “American Policy in the Arabian Peninsula,” House Foreign Affairs
10 AM National Election/Ethics Rules Reform, H.R.1, House Oversight
10 AM Agency Spending Restrictions During a Shutdown, House Appropriations
10 AM Affordable Care Act Policies, House Appropriations
10 AM Preventing Gun Violence, House Judiciary
10:15 AM “Examining Threats to Workers with Preexisting Conditions,” House Education and Labor
10:15 AM Texas v. US Impact on Health Care, House Energy and Commerce
11 AM The Shutdown’s Economic Impact, House Small Business
12 PM MARK-UP, Removal of U.S. Forces in Yemen, H.J.Res.37, House Foreign Affairs
2:30 PM Army Readiness, Senate Armed Services
Thursday 7 9:30 AM “Why Investing in Our Nation’s Infrastructure Cannot Wait,” House Transportation
10 AM Energy Trends and Outlook, House Appropriations
10 AM “Quality of Life in the Military,” House Appropriations
10 AM Economic and National Security Investments, House Budget
10 AM Challenges and Opportunities of Underserved Businesses, House Small Business
10 AM Energy Innovation, Senate Energy
10:15 AM U.S. Africa, Southern Commands, Senate Armed Services
10:15 AM Raising the Minimum Wage, House Education and Labor
10:30 AM Family Separation, House Energy and Commerce
11 AM “Preserving an Open Internet,” House Energy and Commerce
2 PM Presidential and Vice-Presidential Tax Returns, House Ways and Means
2 PM “”Healthy Oceans and Healthy Economies,” House Natural Resources
Friday 8 9:30 AM Justice Department Oversight, House Judiciary
Pete Davis is an economist who worked on the tax and budget committees of Congress for 11 years and who follows Washington for money managers.
