“France has no friends, only interests…”

In the headlines this morning.

When the Fed Chairman has to say he’s “insulated from short-term political pressures”, then you know his ears are bleeding from a full up-to 11 Trump rant. Apparently, Trump’s stooges have been sounding out other Fed governors for the job. Powell went onto say he remains sort-of dovish, which suggests he is paying attention. What do you do when you lose confidence in central banks? 

The market isn’t convinced – hence y’day’s sell off. But it was still probably a smart thing for Powell to say – come Friday the market is likely to be very disappointed by a very lacklustre G20 meeting. From the mumbleswerve it sounds the best can be hoped for is that Xi and Trump meet and agree wording about agreeing to agree to resume discussions re reaching agreement on trade. Which means they basically agree nothing. At which stage the Fed comes in more dovish gibberish about easing due to worsening global financial outlook to stem a major sell off, and we get a 25 cent cut in July. Sorted.

If only it was always so easy…

I’ve been thinking about Europe the last few days… and I am worried… yes, I know we are supposed to be trying to forget about our confusing love for Europe, (it’s us, it’s not you) and trying to pretend we are good Globalists… but I can’t help but think we are approaching something of a significant moment in terms of how thing are across Le Manche. Maybe it’s time for a rethink? (I can just imagine my mate Anthony spluttering in fury into his tea as he reads this).