So the Ukrainian counteroffensive is well and truly underway, even if progress is measured in metres rather than the rapid advances that characterised Ukraine’s highly successful push last autumn. Volodymyr Zelensky himself has confirmed this, saying progress has been “slower than desired” and noting that the Russian invaders have mined an estimated 200,000 sq km of frontline territory.
But then, as he has also noted, this war is not a “Hollywood movie” that will neatly resolve the way many might wish. And the analysts at think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe we are more likely to see a series of testing exercises, designed to highlight Russian weak points in preparation for a bigger push later in the campaigning season.
One expert pondering the timing of the counteroffensive is Cyrille Bret, an expert in defence studies at Sciences Po, who asks: why now and to what end?
On the one hand, waiting a month or so would undoubtedly give Ukraine the advantage of more advanced western military hardware. But there are other factors – strategic and political – that would have driven Zelensky to give the order to begin. Not least of these is that he faces a general election in Ukraine in the autumn and needs to have something to show voters.
And round about then is when the interminable US 2024 presidential election machinery starts to grind in earnest. A growing number of Americans becoming increasingly ambivalent about the huge sums their government is ploughing into the war. So some good news from Kyiv could be just what Biden needs to bolster his chances against Republican candidates who are openly questioning their country’s involvement. A great deal hangs on the next weeks and months.
There’s been a fair bit of politics going on inside Russia, too. It’s long been no secret that the country’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the boss of the Wagner Group private military company, Yevgeny Prigozhin loathe each other. Not being held back by the constraints of public office, Prigozhin has been liberal with his criticisms of Shoigu and Russia’s military commander, Valery Gerasimov, calling them “stupid” and responsible for “criminal orders”.
