There are many reasons why one could try to argue that a decent recession is on the way in the US; the economic engine room of the world.

I, though, like many others, have been surprised at the resilience of the US consumer and the relative strength of their economy. It has been a feature of the last 15 years that the US Consumer has pulled the world through moments of worry on the economic front. It seems, from the performance of shares recently, that the world thinks they will do so again.

Whilst we can all take some comfort from this current “soft-landing” narrative, I also have to say that the voice in my head is ringing all sorts of alarm bells. The reason for this is that I have discovered recently that there is a half decent explanation for the resilience of the US consumer which I am not seeing reported in the papers.

Specifically, I did not know that the COVID Employee Retention Tax Credit, brought in by the US Government in 2020, is still delivering the goods to US companies.  Apparently, even though it expired in September 2021, qualified businesses can still file paperwork retroactively and receive claims throughout 2023. Employers receive up to $26,000 per employee. Tax refunds were $30 billion in just the last month!