Not as glamorous as Brooklyn, as cool as Staten Island, or as private as Manhattan… ”*

*In the headlines this morning

Bit of jolt to stock market’s yesterday – US Retail Sales crash, Trade War concerns, slowdown in China, stagnation in Germany, and a growing realisation all these things plus a modest earnings season point to a downturn. Coke took a spanking as it warned it expects sales to slow. It’s all happening so soon? But what’s to worry about in bonds – the Fed looks to be on hold, long-term rates will hereabouts for eternity with zero inflation, while the Bank of China is likely to ease to reflate the economy with further stimulus, and the ECB-G (The European Central Bank of Germany) is (probably) dusting off plans to relaunch QE2 as the European economy slides in Germany’s wake.

Blain’s Morning Porridge is also carried on The Property Chronicle – “Real estate, alternative real assets and other diversions” – check it out on: https://www.propertychronicle.com/

Bloomberg reports that 75% of US CFOs expect recession by 2020, even though a majority of economists it surveys expect US Growth to remain positive this year. Meanwhile, issues such as the rising number of defaults on cards, student loans and auto-loans may be factors underlying Jeff Gundlach’s comments about the widening gap between consumer sentiment and expectations as the most recessionary signal at present. It sure feels like something isn’t quite right out there..