Blain’s Morning Porridge – The Property Chronicle
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Blain’s Morning Porridge “I see trouble on the way, I see earthquakes and lightning, I see bad times today...”

The Macro View

In the headlines this morning:

I got up early to see the Super Blood Wolf Moon this morning. It hung in the western sky, a baleful dark pink ball in the sky – caused by the earth eclipsing the moon. Reading the headlines about Chinese growth this morning – annual growth at 6.6% is the slowest since 1990 – I can’t help but wonder if the Blood Moon was trying to tell us something? (Its going to be a quietish day – US closed for Martin Luther King holiday. Actually.. US is closed anyway.) Wow.. 6.6% Chinese growth? Any occidental economy would rejoice to even achieve half that number. What’s to worry about? Well… quite a lot..

Taken at face value, there is nothing particular in China to cause undue concern. The slowdown can be explained in terms of weaker than expected numbers reflecting businesses scaling back to counter any negative trade war events, related knocks to consumer and business confidence, slowing orders for consumer tech (like falling iPhone orders), and are all a natural reflection of the cycle. (I was about to write business cycle – but I’m not sure that’s what it is.) For years the likelihood of China economic collapse of has been one of the most overstated market threats.
But the world is changing and evolving. It’s worth considering the whole picture and outlook for China in light of just how different the world functions today.

The Macro View

About Bill Blain

Bill Blain

Bill Blain is Strategist for Shard Capital, a leading investment firm. Bill is a well known broadcaster and commentator, with over 30-years experience working for leading investment banks and brokerages at senior levels. He's been closely involved in the growth and development of the global fixed income markets, and pioneered complex financial products including capital, asset-backed securities and private placements. Increasingly, he's involved in the Real and Alternative Assets sector seeking to explain their complexity, how to generate decorrelated returns, and create liquidity in non-listed assets. Bill is a passionate sailor, talentless painter, plays guitar badly, is learning the bagpipes, and built a train-set in his attic.

Articles by Bill Blain

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