Weebles Wobble but they don’t fall down..”
I oft get accused of being too bearish, too miserable, and too gloomy. That’s not true! I’m a very happy, smiley, even jovial chap. I’ve learnt it’s better to look at the facts, assume the worst and not be surprised. 30 plus years in markets also teaches me no matter how awful it looks, it’s never as bad as it might be, and it always gets better. So being aware of just how bad it might get, rather than fooling ourselves how good we hope it might be, seems the best plan.
And, on the subject of self-delusional behaviour, from today “Blain’s Brexit-Watch” will be a regular part of the daily porridge – at the bottom, after the Fun-Stuff.
The Fun Stuff today will be the Fed decision. Just how will the Fed frame a 25 basis point ease? Regular readers will know my view is a Fed ease is a pointless sop. The Feb will ease because they expect a now pretty-much unavoidable trade war and global slowdown, and really ought to be seen to be prepared for it.
The real issue isn’t even why we’re heading for global slowdown. These include Donald Trump’s tweets y’day accusing the Chinese of reneging on their “agreement” to buy more US agricultural products – effectively scuppering the resumed trade talks before they started. (Serious question to my US Republican friends: are you even remotely concerned about Donald’s increasing randomness?)