Serious investment thinking that doesn’t take itself too seriously.
Investment themes and trends
No signs of capital flight yet. Just two quick charts on the “Fade America, Long Europe” trade that’s become de jour. The basic premise is that big bad Trump is ruining America’s reputation as an exceptional place for risk assets, and that as a result, investors are going take their...
Short post today. This is just a fun chart that (a) speaks to the difficulty of forecasting, and also probably (b) the incentives inherent to sell-side research. Earnings...
There has been so much talk about the proposed new football regulator and anxious debate about exactly what he, she or it should or shouldn’t be responsible for that it is easy...
What does it mean for China to be "the future"? And what does that future look like? Most discussions that I see about China these days are about U.S.-China...
For the second time in five years, a scam involving sexing up a boring, centuries old financing business blew up in the faces of some of the world’s largest banks. You know the...
As the government's office portfolio faces dramatic cuts, what opportunities and challenges lie ahead? The Washington news cycle moves quickly, with major updates emerging almost...
How we would do things if we were serious. Trump’s current trade strategy will diminish American power and American technological capability, divide the U.S. from allies and...
Connecticut-based developer Juan Salas-Romer writes a first hand account of his conversion of a historic office building into apartments. In 2014, I stepped into a...
Generally I am only a modest believer in the role of sentiment in foreign affairs. Things like pride, hurt feelings, etc can make a difference (more than realists understand, for...
In case you missed it, Trump put the screws to China, while giving the rest of the world another 90 days to negotiate. Negotiate what? Unclear, but Random Walk thinks it’s...