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Yesterday evening I stopped to take a look at the twin towers at the Vauxhall end of the Nine Elms development which look nearly complete. As they have changed hands they symbolise the problems that China is experiencing in the real estate sector and we can this morning take a further look at the numbers for the domestic state of play. BEIJING: China’s new home prices dropped for an eighth straight month in February, official data showed on Friday, suggesting the fragile property market is... Read More >

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The Washington State House has passed a bill to cap rent increases at 7 percent a year. The Senate has yet to vote on it, and the governor has not taken a position. If enacted, this law would hurt renters, including low-income Read More >

The eyes of the world may be on the US presidential election. But another, usually sleepy campaign is underway: European Parliament elections in June 2024. Most of the action takes place in the executive and bureaucracy (the European Read More >

A deal was signed between San Diego Zoo and China’s Wildlife Conservation Association in February 2024 that paved the way for Chinese giant pandas to return to the US by the end of the summer. But this is far more than just a deal Read More >

Argentine President Javier Milei’s address to the World Economic Forum was, as you’ve no doubt heard, a real corker. The principles of classical liberalism have not been so vehemently promoted on the world stage since the Gipper and Read More >

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in November, yet the prevailing money supply indicators strongly suggest an impending recession in 2024. A decline in M4x of over £3b. during the month, has resulted in both annual and annualised quarterly growth Read More >

Finally, I think the Bitcoin improbability bubble has burst. Ever since it claimed it was mainstream and respectable back in January when the SEC was bounced into giving regulatory approval for Bitcoin ETFs, it has crashed 15%! How loudly be the Read More >

On January 10, over a decade after the first Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) application, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved eleven applications on the same day. Trading began the next day, January Read More >

It is one of the most “identified” structural failings of the UK economy. A shortcoming, we are told, that lies at the core of why the UK will see no growth next year, and indeed more generally, why the British economy is the basket case of Read More >

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hold their federal funds rate target in the 5.25 to 5.5 percent range on Tuesday. The move was widely expected, with financial markets pricing in a mere 1.8 percent chance of a rate Read More >

The Economic Affairs Committee of the House of Lords has produced its report on the Bank of England. Correctly, it is critical of the Bank, but it could have been much more so. As expected, the Bank is said to suffer from “groupthink” and Read More >

If asked to separate forecasting consistency from obstinacy, my reply is categorical. Consistency is sticking to an economic prediction based on fundamentals; an outlook one must persist with, until & unless something occurs to markedly Read More >

On 10 March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank failed, triggering fears of a new financial crisis. Over the next three weeks, US bank share prices fell by 14% and regional banks fared even worse, at 33%. In short order, Signature Bank and First Republic Read More >

The Bank of England (BoE) has been strongly criticised for failing to predict the surge in inflation. Had it done so, it could have reacted more quickly and prevented inflation from rising as high as 11% in autumn Read More >

Now, I find myself having endless chats on internships, which I am told as line items on CVs, pay generous dividends. Meetings start by me asking the aspirant intern their thoughts on indentured apprenticeships. To this, I invariably receive Read More >

Inflation is back! Or so the commentariat would have you believe. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 0.6 percent in August, significantly higher than the previous six monthly increases. Consumer prices have grown 3.7 percent over the last Read More >

The Housing Act of ‘80 isn’t something many are likely to be overly familiar with. Yet, throughout the ‘80s, it "acted" to polarise public opinion like few other policies; of which there were many riotously triggering ones. The Act gave Read More >

After more than two years of high inflation, the Federal Reserve finally has inflation back on target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) has grown at a continuously compounding annual rate of 2.1 percent over the last Read More >

The US economy was pushed to extremes during the pandemic recession and subsequent recovery. The unemployment rate peaked at 14.7 percent, the highest in the post-World War II period. Inflation reached its highest rate in 40 years, prompting Read More >

If being entirely honest, we’d accept our wish-lists invariably include items that, without some huge leap of wealth, opportunity, or technology, will always remain beyond us. Well, whilst most elements on my wish-list are unicorn-like, there Read More >

When Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting mini-budget triggered a UK debt crisis in autumn 2022, the pound plummeted to almost parity with the US dollar. In 2023 the UK has endured weak growth, falling Read More >

During the pandemic, a frequently re-iterated claim was that the contraction of the economy was not dramatically less severe in areas that adopted milder policies but reported higher levels of mortality. This was taken as an argument that the Read More >

Originally published May 2023. Since March, we have experienced three of the largest bank failures in United States history. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and New Republic Bank had combined assets worth over half a trillion Read More >

Originally published May 2023. Of the great many motives for one ‘labouring a point’, despite a backdrop of derision and dismissal, most are far from great. Of these, the most disagreeable is an unyielding stubbornness even when reasoning Read More >

Working from Home in the USA. Originally published in May 2023. “I haven’t been back to the office since COVID,” has become a commonplace response among US employees when asked about their day-to-day work commute. In 2019, 6% of US Read More >

“[Wittgenstein] once greeted me with the question: ‘why do people say that it was natural to think that the sun went round the earth rather than that the earth turned on its axis?’ I replied: ‘I suppose, because it looked as if the Read More >

UK commercial real estate (CRE) valuations are languishing at post-COVID lows, amid fears the sector faces “banking covenants being breached” and struggles with regard to occupancy. In this short article, we draw upon new Toscafund research Read More >

None can deny whose strong arms made the winning difference in World War II. The same fingerprints can be found on the remnants of the Berlin Wall, and on the Iron Curtain not merely thrown open but torn off its rails in so doing lightening up Read More >

The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures changes in housing costs in ways that change slowly and arrive too late. Studies from the BLS, Federal Reserve Banks and prominent economists find lags of 12-18 months before changes in rents and/or house Read More >

Or is the whole financial orchard at risk? In the past two months, four US banks – with combined assets of over $450 billion – have failed. Credit Suisse, the once venerable Swiss institution, also shut its doors for the last time. Yet Read More >

With promising companies either leaving London or deciding not to list here in the first place, this week’s reforms to the UK’s stock market regime could not come soon enough. Despite intense government lobbying, Cambridge-based software Read More >

The 2022/2023 season will go down as a landmark year in world football. The first World Cup held in the European winter. The attempt to create a European Super League quashed by UEFA and, seemingly, Gary Neville on Twitter. FIFA levelling Read More >

Ask its bulls why they are evangelically in Au of gold, and you will never be short of reasons for being long. They point to it being a class insurance against dollar weakness; identifying too its lucrative luxury status in the eyes of Read More >

ederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently testified before Congress on the current state of the US economy. In addition to monetary policy, Powell was questioned about the Fed’s regulatory proposals regarding cryptocurrencies Read More >

Price inflation is starting to fall in many countries but it still remains way above the typical 2% target of most major economies. In the UK, inflation has been above target since August 2021 and in double Read More >

I’ve yet to come across anyone who has a better way of describing current monetary policy than Louis Gave from Gavekal.  Paraphrasing Louis, ‘the Fed is dynamite fishing, they’ve lit the fuse, thrown the stick of TNT in the water, Read More >

Is fractional-reserve banking inherently unstable? Over at National Review, Edwin Burton, a visiting economics professor at the University of Virginia, argues that the “mismatch between the maturity of the source of funds and Read More >

A nuanced picture for real assets’ demand Demographic trends throughout the eurozone, between member states and within nations, vary markedly. At the macro level, Europe’s working-age population is shrinking, which poses challenges to Read More >

This short piece focuses on Charts 1 and 2. The first maps the path taken since 1970 by sterling, as measured by a trade-weighted index, this charted alongside UK Consumer Price Inflation (CPI). In the second, we see the pound’s eventful ebbs Read More >

Insights into how financial contagion changed how central banks react during a crisis. This year’s Nobel prize in economics, known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, has gone to Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig and Read More >

Once upon a time there was… Well, an Old World which two-thirds of the UK population – those not into their mid-50s – will fail to comprehend and could not possibly want to live in. A time when if you wanted to do practically anything you Read More >

Time to stop defending the rest of the world. A new year dawns bright, with the US hurtling over the fiscal cliff. The lame duck Congress voted for a pork-packed $1.7tr budget bill. As the saying goes, it’s only money! At a Read More >

Alongside the Private Rental Sector, there is another segment of British property which can reasonably be considered to fulfil dual residential and commercial roles; where ones living abode doubles as a workspace. And whilst home working is Read More >

Originally published October 2022. In what follows, I will do my best to remain as sensitive to the calamitous human toll the war in Ukraine has and continues to take. Do my best to do so, in the context of trying to gauge what impact these Read More >

Originally published November 2022. In his quest to ensure that no pound is left circulating outside of the Treasury’s coffers, Jeremy Hunt is attempting to set out some £60bn in tax rises and spending cuts. This is quite a lot of money, Read More >

 The UK did NOT enter recession in 2022 Last week’s news will come as a surprise to many (and a great disappointment to some) as the Bank of England’s forecasts from as recently as November suggested we should now be seven months Read More >

Originally published December 2022. It began in 1947 as a refreshing new measure, but has long since become a Ridiculously poor price index; unless, that is, you own what it links to and/or happen to like antiquities. It is full of relics we Read More >

On our journey looking at world economic developments, crises are sadly rarely far away. Indeed, our subject of today has in many ways been one long-running crisis. But the 2022 energy crisis and its consequences has given another shove to the Read More >

With apologies for stating the bleedin‘ obvious, but most of us work to pay bills and no small part of these are accounted for by our mortgage. Consequently, for those who, on having thankfully made their last payment and received the Read More >

Last week brought some news which caught my eye. On Thursday, Bloomberg told us this: Germany’s housing boom is over as prices for residential properties dropped for the first time in over a decade. For newer readers the significance of Read More >

In what follows I will call upon youthful memories of when we used a mixture of washing-up liquid, water, and a plastic circle to aimlessly and harmlessly blow bubbles into the air. I raise this childish image because a series of bubbles is Read More >

The top five films coming your way, according to this writer. The bricks and mortar cinema experience may be in terminal decline, particularly in the USA. Only a handful of established blockbuster franchises are able to pack theatres on Read More >

Whether we consider the dollar’s level against a trade-weighted basket of other currencies or against a basket of commodities, its strength is arguably 'the market story' of 2022. As to why we have seen it move upwards in practically all Read More >

Today’s title is a little tongue in cheek, but there is also quite a lot of truth in it. The chair of the US Federal Reserve has had particular influence over foreign interest rates this year via the 'King Dollar' period that exacerbated Read More >

And not just for the City of London. Higher pay for bankers and in the middle of a cost of living crisis. The politics of this may not look good, but the economics behind this make sense and should be seen as a separate issue to the pay Read More >

And it's not the greener firms that will save us. To be an economist one cannot also be a diplomat, in as much as to be truly economically objective, one risks making statements which will very often prove objectionable and open oneself up to Read More >

Global housing markets face a potentially significant downturn as rising interest rates, high valuations, and squeezed real incomes start to bite. Risks look especially acute in some markets, where they are already starting to Read More >

People really dislike inflation. Today, with US annual inflation still above 8%, one in five Americans consider it the country’s biggest problem – spelling trouble for the Democrats at the November mid-terms. Inflation is also the top Read More >

Consumer price inflation in the UK slowed for the first time in nearly a year in August. A fall in petrol prices helped slow the overall rate but food prices continue to rise rapidly. But even with a slowdown to 9.9%, from 10.1% in July, Read More >

Battle lines redrawn for our consumer good. By the time coronavirus so abruptly and harmfully struck, those businesses plying their consumer goods trade from premises on high streets, shopping centres and retail parks, had already lost Read More >

As of September 6th, the UK has a new prime minister, in Liz Truss, and a new chancellor in Kwasi Kwarteng. To say they face immense challenges is no exaggeration. Then again, challenges abound across Europe, MENA and no less in the United Read More >

The change of Government has rightly produced a change of policy. We are now expecting a mini-Budget next week that will reverse the Treasury’s long-standing insistence on balancing the books and cut taxes by at least £30bn. The Government Read More >

Now, whatever one may believe concerning his past attempts to 'subvert parliamentary elections', it can be assured that Putin has affected how the UK next go to the polls. For, by invading Ukraine, Putin has had an impact on the UK’s political Read More >

Seldom does another topic supplant the weather as the most common conversation topic amongst Brits. And yet, for six months now, temperature has been eclipsed by heated talk of sharply accelerating consumer price inflation. Now, when discussing Read More >

Back in April, we released The UK Economy over Time (‘23 – ‘30) & from Place to Place, which made the case that in the years to 2030, Central and Northern England (CaNE) would record the strongest economic performance of the UK’s 12 Read More >

Disappointing GDP growth and high inflation have many commentators talking about stagflation. Advanced estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis suggest real GDP fell for a second straight quarter in 2022. At the same time, the Consumer Read More >

Keen sport watchers will have witnessed the use of ‘head-fakes’ to deceive an unsuspecting opponent. Indeed, the phrase is used generally to describe not only using a fake move with one’s head to wrong-foot opponents, but legs, arms and Read More >

The Bank of England (BoE) projects the UK will 'enter recession from Q4'. I will only accept we are heading into recession if the OBR says so when it next updates us in October.  Only those close to 60 will painfully know what a real Read More >

Property and inflation. My friend, colleague and fellow co-head of research, Kevin White, has spent the past few months quoting Mark Twain and telling me that, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. The reason for the Read More >

It spoke volumes of her promised fiscal approach ‘on becoming’ PM that Liz Truss cited Professor Patrick Minford as an ‘endorser’. Then, in light of revelations of just how far off-grid his eccentric views can be, team Truss distanced Read More >

Europe sweats over the future of Russia’s gas supply. The invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and the nearly five months of war that have followed have reminded many European countries of the stark reality of their energy dependence on Read More >

Originally published May 2022. Economists have shaped the modern world in many ways. Governments make policy choices in response to the data that we produce about things like GDP and inflation. Social media companies use our insights about Read More >

Originally published June 2022. How the metaverse may impact on the real world. Sweat streaming down my face, I landed a punch straight into his midriff. The force of the blow sent him stumbling backwards. Now was the time to finish this. Read More >

Originally published 6 July 2022. Having claimed the UK will avoid such a fate, I want to explore whether Continental Europe can avoid falling victim to recession. To do so I consider 10 channels through which the recession virus could spread Read More >

It’s more than a case of semantics Deglobalisation, as a concept, has been mentioned quite a bit recently (along with the topics of onshoring and nearshoring), but the evidence of it happening on a significant scale thus far is scant, at Read More >

The Liberal politician Joseph Chamberlain is recorded in 1886 as having said: “In politics, there is no use in looking beyond the next fortnight.” Fast forward to 1964 and this myopic political horizon was halved by Labour’s Harold Read More >

The US dollar has been on a major surge against major global currencies in the past year, recently hitting levels not seen in 20 years. It has gained 15% against the British pound, 16% against the euro and 23% against the Japanese Read More >

News of a big pay rise might see you booking the nearest fancy restaurant for a slap-up meal to celebrate, or encourage you to go on a shopping spree even before your raise hits your bank account. Recent research shows that this is also Read More >

The ‘potato cycle’ is a staple (sic) of the economics menu. The first thing, in fact, I was taught on the first day I began as an undergraduate, so, so many years ago. This simple rule uses the demand and supply curves for potatoes to Read More >

While decomposing inflation into its constituent parts is empirically tricky, its essence is simple. Inflation results from too much money chasing too few goods. Milton Friedman popularised this rule of thumb. Its combination of Read More >

Time and again during the Congressional hearings on the January 6 attack on the Capitol, the legislators and witnesses struggled to understand how Donald Trump could just flat-out deny he had lost the 2020 election. Didn’t matter what any Read More >

Data from London Underground stations points to a V-shaped recovery for commuting and reveals which days we prefer to work from home. A huge debate in property since the pandemic began has surrounded the future balance between time Read More >

High inflation rates have been making headlines since the beginning of the year. Inflation seems to have caught even investors by surprise. While I’m optimistic that inflation will fall over the next year, this belief is formed with the Read More >

Since first espousing it, I have not wavered in my view of the crypto marché. To wit, it is a fiction that ill inevitably be exposed. Now, while the crashing down of the crypto fiction will shock many, it should not come as a surprise at all. Read More >

...and from place to place  Our forecasts offer an economic outlook for the UK in terms of both time, out to 2030, and space, across its 12 regions. Among factors we consider are spatial differences in employment shares by sector, Read More >

Economic research shows that monetary policy works best when conducted by an independent central bank. After Fed chairs in the 1960s and 70s caved to pressure from American presidents, those who followed sought, at least to some Read More >

...and from place to place. The third of a four-part mini-series written by economist Savvas Savouri. Housing matters are a crucial component in the composition of our regional outlook for the UK. One aspect is affordability and with this Read More >

...and from place to place. Part two of a three-part mini-series written by economist Savvas Savouri. I claim that UK regions with established and comparatively large manufacturing sectors will economically outperform over the rest of the Read More >

...and from place to place. Part one of a three-part mini-series written by economist Savvas Savouri. If I were seeking an analogy for how best to forecast what awaits the UK economy, it would be meteorological. To wit, a weather forecast Read More >

How Russia’s economy will struggle to pay the price of invading Ukraine. The invasion of Ukraine has placed Russia on the verge of bankruptcy. Interest rates have doubled, the stock market has closed and the rouble has fallen to Read More >

The Federal Reserve System manages the US’s money supply, increasing or decreasing bank credit and other circulating media to reach a target interest rate usually announced at meetings of the Open Market Committee, which meets eight times a Read More >

Everything old is new again: Inflation plagues the US economy. The Consumer Price Index is up 7.9% from a year ago. The Personal Consumptions Expenditures index is up 6.1%from a year ago. We haven’t seen price pressures like these in 40 Read More >

Where the Fed’s digital currency proposal goes wrong. The Fed’s long-awaited report on central bank digital currencies is finally out. Although the report makes it clear that the Fed has no immediate plans to issue a digital Read More >

Summary AIER’s Leading Indicators Index posted a solid gain in January, rising to 63 following three consecutive months at the neutral 50 mark. The gain was the largest one-month increase since September 2020, leaving the index at Read More >

The preliminary February results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment fell sharply in early February, hitting the lowest level since October 2011 (see top of first chart). The composite Read More >

And we may see falls, says this writer. One of the features of the modern era is the way that central banks have come to regard house prices as one of their main agents of monetary policy. Come rain or shine they must be pumped up. The Read More >

On Tuesday, February 1, 2022, the United States national debt surpassed $30tr for the first time.  It’s the latest in a series of recent fiscal and monetary benchmarks received with increasing blitheness. I counted only a handful of Read More >

Most commentators were complacent about the risks of higher inflation in 2021 and seem determined not to be caught out again this year. But some of the rhetoric is now running well ahead of reality. Take the warnings that UK families are Read More >

Central banks will do far more harm trying to tackle it. It remains to be seen whether the Omicron variant will shift Sars-CoV-2 towards becoming manageably endemic. But as and when this happens, there will still be long Covid to contend Read More >

The news on 2 December will have brought a beaming smile to the person responsible for the morning meeting at the Bank of England. They will have been able to leave all the house copies of the Financial Times open at this page. UK household Read More >

Inching toward a multi-layered future China’s highly anticipated REIT pilot programme finally came to fruition in June, with the listing of the country’s first batch of nine REITs. Packaged in a mutual fund structure, the initial C-REIT Read More >

Cities are central to property performance and the largest cities are seen as hugely important by investors. But the pandemic has turned many received ideas about real estate on their head and we think that performance in these large gateway Read More >

Seldom since its civil war and prior to that its battle for independence, has America’s internal future/fortunes been so vulnerable to the actions of outsiders serving their own ambitions. This time, however, it isn’t dealing with the Read More >

World’s biggest banks’ latest initiative at COP26 is a step backwards. Over 450 of the world’s banks have committed to a new initiative at the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference, which is designed to decarbonise their Read More >

How long can it last? Visiting logistics facilities is a big part of my working life. Not my favourite part – memories of teenage nights spent toiling away in a Shropshire butter factory may have something to do with that – but a Read More >

Those of you who have followed my LinkedIn posts or been on Zoom calls with me during the pandemic will know that I am an avid book reader. My Napoleonic War military drum bookcase, full of a mix of Waterloo, cricket and college history books, Read More >

The International Energy Agency recently reported that shifting to clean energy will create between 13 and 26 million jobs by 2030. They present this as a benefit, but that’s misleading: jobs are not a benefit, but a cost. That Read More >

In 1929, Ludwig von Mises rejected a job offer for a high position at the Austrian bank Kreditanstalt. He believed that a great crash was coming and didn’t want his name associated with it. Since then, economists of the Austrian school Read More >

It just isn’t possible to do away with boom and bust Mark Twain is alleged to have read a newspaper account of his own passing and declared, “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”. That story may well be apocryphal, but Read More >

We live in an era where central bankers have taken centre stage in economic policy. There has been a clear shift as elected politicians have stepped back and unelected technocrats have picked up many of the reins. Some of this is not a little Read More >

Destination shopping will return, says this writer. Having had so much change forced upon us by this cursed viral crisis, we can all be forgiven for despairing that things will never again ‘settle down’. And yet they will, Read More >

In 1862 we got the Gettysburg Address, in 1941 it was Roosevelt’s Day of Infamy and in 1983 it was Ronald Reagan’s Evil Empire speech. This year it appears we’ll have to settle for Greta Thunberg’s "Blah, blah, Read More >

Originally published May 2020. An exogenous crisis hit the world, followed by a stunningly fast disruption of the global economy. Political decisions led to the closing of business, to numerous bankruptcies, to ramped-up production in Read More >

These words are written soon after the end of the UK’s work protecting – what many claim was a ‘true’ job data distorting – furlough scheme. They come in the midst of a considerable spike in the price of gas and hikes across more Read More >

Originally published March 2021. Plus, reassessing the relationship between UK interest rates and REITs. This article was originally published in June 2019. The perceived wisdom has always been that reducing, and indeed low, UK interest Read More >

Originally published June 2021. As space requirements fall for offices and retail, residential will fill the gap. Much of the reflection on post-pandemic shifts in property has been focused on individual sectors, but how these interact Read More >

This morning has seen something of a different event, but it has given us an insight into the thoughts of the Bank of England. This is because QuickBooks arranged an 'Ask the Expert' session with Michael Saunders of the Bank of England on Read More >

That quote from a hit by Gwen Guthrie is rather echoing this morning as we look at another aspect of the housing crisis. I point out the song link partly because there was quite a miss last night on a reference to the film Escape from New York Read More >

The battle between inflation hawks and doves is heating up. The year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index is 5.4%, significantly above average. This figure, from the end of July, comes after several months of economy-wide price Read More >

Should we be worried? Two big takeover battles in the UK are a sign of the times: supermarket chain Wm Morrisons and respiratory medicines group Vectura are both the subject of bids in the billions of pounds by private Read More >

As agitation for Indyref2 grows, one of our favourite economists puts forward his view of what Scotland’s next move will be. Let me begin by making clear why I dismiss the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK in the foreseeable future. My Read More >

Cryptocurrency is something of a fairy tale, but the real story is one of central banks seeking financial repression by any means possible. Arguably, the best background reading for global finance over the past 30 years was written by the Read More >

To read The UK Economy – A picture of change, part one, visit https://www.propertychronicle.com/the-uk-economy-a-picture-of-change-part-one/. Before the present crisis, the UK had scaled to its highest ever number employed, 33 million, and Read More >

The pandemic will have a long tail, resulting in a rollercoaster property cycle in the coming years. June 21st – hooray! We have a date for a return to normal (sort of). The pricing-in of some vaccine optimism in the financial markets in Read More >

The first in a three-part series examines how the country has been transformed (for the better) in the past few decades. The UK economy looks fundamentally different now from its image just 30 years ago. It is simply unrecognisable – and Read More >

Limitations to our flight movements due to the pandemic remain frustrating, but unrestricted personal air travel will have to resume. When it does, the eurozone’s tourist-hungry Club Med economies will have essentially lost two years of Read More >

This article was originally published in February 2021. Standing at close to £759bn, the ‘stock’ of UK state debt acquired by the Bank of England on behalf of the state is not merely a considerable number but, to many, a monetary Read More >

This article was originally published in November 2020. November 7th marked the 103rd anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution, where communist revolutionaries overthrew the czarist government of Russia, eventually leading to the establishment Read More >

As the pandemic is slowly brought under control, a changed world will emerge that offers new investment opportunities. Few people will be sorry to see the end of 2020, and many have subdued expectations for next year. I am forecasting Q4 Read More >

This article was originally published in December 2020. The benefits from adding real estate investments to a multi-asset portfolio have been well researched. Real estate has low correlation relative to other asset classes, high Sharpe Read More >

Only in the make-believe world of analytical models can negative nominal interest rates be argued to do any real good. Last October, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, ordered UK commercial banks to demonstrate their preparedness Read More >

Should economic freedom take a back seat to civil rights? Jack Ma found out the hard way that both are equally important. The Alibaba founder and Chinese billionaire has been missing for over two months now following his recent criticism of Read More >

The pandemic has created as many opportunities as it has removed, and there will be no lasting damage – not even for the young. At the outset of this crisis, there were widespread concerns that the UK residential market would suffer Read More >

Pornhub, the world’s largest aggregator of pornographic videos, has been cut off from accepting credit cards. The company is only accepting cryptocurrency for its premium service at present.  It happened quickly. On 4 December, New Read More >

This article was originally published in October 2020. As we adjust to what may be a permanent shift from 95% to 80% capacity in the economy, we face penalties in terms of price, choice and quality. Announcements of store closures and job Read More >

Biographers of John Maynard Keynes have a peculiar habit of treading very lightly around their subject matter’s involvement in the eugenics movement. The oversight is not for want of evidence. In one of his last public appearances before Read More >

This article was originally published in October 2020. A new book by Stephanie Kelton offers insights into an increasingly relevant monetary theory, but these are dangerous ideas. Like it or not, Stephanie Kelton is an economist whose Read More >

The covid-19 pandemic has afflicted India with its biggest economic shock since the oil crises of the 1970s. The Indian economy, among the world’s fastest-growing emerging markets four years ago, contracted by a ghastly 24% in Q2 2020 and Read More >

This article was originally published in autumn 2019. Of course they’re inherently illogical, but let’s unpack what they mean in practice for the wider investment market. How many economists does it take to screw in a lightbulb? Read More >

One of the loudest and most frequent defences of WFH (aka working from home) is that it is perfectly viable in this ultra tech-age. Perfectly viable that co-workers can connect without being practically conjoined in an office setting. Let me be Read More >

Like many of us, I had an iconic and charismatic high school teacher who left a lasting impression. He used to say something memorable about asking for forgiveness: “Apologise if you’re in the wrong,” he said, “but double down if Read More >

As the outline of a new property landscape appears through the settling dust, investment professionals can start to do their jobs again. When the UK moved into lockdown, inaction became the preferred strategy of many investors, and the Read More >

Assessing value is no easy task, even in normal times. But we believe that assessing the relative value of commercial property against a range of alternative asset classes, including government and corporate bonds, and equities, is a useful Read More >

The global monetary and fiscal stimulus implemented since the coronavirus erupted has been sizable, and policy-makers have acted with unprecedented speed. While it is recognised that this stimulus was necessary, the resulting increases in Read More >

Predictions for prolonged British misery are based on fears of a no-deal Brexit and a pandemic second spike – but both risks carry little economic downside. When any economy suffers significant job loss, three things need to follow to avoid Read More >

Floating on a sea of money, will asset prices eventually sink – or make landfall on the solid ground of economic recovery? Global equity markets have performed pretty well in the year to date, even as the world’s major economies are only Read More >

Asia Pacific’s real estate focused stocks outperformed in August, edging ahead of the wider market. This was led by the wider GPR/APREA Composite Listed Real Estate Index, which returned 5.8%, powered mainly by the Australian and Japanese Read More >

Here at CBRE Global Investors we are knee-deep in our semi-annual ‘global house views’ process, where we update all our real assets forecasts, risk-adjusted returns, model portfolios and preferred strategies. In the pre-covid days, the Read More >

Money is an indispensable part of modern economic activity. It was not always so: barter, where goods trade directly for other goods, was the norm for most of human history. But the rise of money as an economic institution greatly increased Read More >

Inflation came in much stronger than economists anticipated across the major western economies in July, highlighting that the effects of the pandemic are not purely deflationary. In the UK, CPI inflation jumped up from +0.6% in June to +1.0% in Read More >

This morning there will have been scenes at the Bank of England. Indeed there will have been jostling amongst the staff as they rush to be the one who presents the morning meeting. Whoever grabbed the gig will be facing a Governor who has a wide Read More >

The disruption and uncertainty permeating Australia’s economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will mark the local housing market for some time to come. Demand in the market is always a challenge to predict and even more so given the rapid Read More >

It is time to look again at a subject which pops up every now and then and this morning has done exactly that. From The Guardian: The price of gold hit $1,865 per ounce for the first time since September 2011 this morning. Gold has surged Read More >

The resignation letter from former New York Times editor and writer Bari Weiss was so powerful because it seemed to state what many once-loyal readers – I’ve been among them for many years, even given the obvious bias of the paper – Read More >

After digesting the initial shock of the coronavirus and its economic disruption, analysts are starting to assess the longer term impact of the pandemic. Not surprisingly, there has been much speculation about how the world could emerge, often Read More >

Orthodox economics, we’re told more and more often these days, isn’t up to the task of dealing with a post-pandemic reality. The latest exemplar in the Observer complains, for instance, that old-fashioned economics relies too much on Read More >

Many millions of people have spent the last four months in sadness and depression. It’s hard to watch the world shattered by the bad behavior of governments – and to see too many among us cheer the destruction – and not feel a sense of Read More >

Sometimes you spot something that you cannot let pass and that has happened this morning. There is an interesting article in the Financial Times Alphaville section by a couple of portfolio manager’s at Man Group suggesting inflation is coming. Read More >

ARTICLE ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 17TH NOVEMBER 2017 Richard Thaler was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics in October 2017 for his work in behavioural economics. His citation refers to his contribution to building a bridge between economic and Read More >

Even before the crisis we remain engulfed in, there were those so distrustful of China’s actions and ambitions, they demanded the UK keep it at a long arms-length. So much so in fact they insisted we allow Huawei no part of our G5 telecom Read More >

A TV series about a struggling lawyer gives us some clues on what the post-Covid office might look like.   The announcement by Twitter that it will no longer oblige employees to ever return to the office has fuelled the “death of Read More >

There may not be many reasons for optimism about the economic outlook, but one is the relative flexibility of the UK labour market. This should help unemployment to fall back and activity to recover more quickly – provided government gets out Read More >

Long term interest rates, in real and nominal terms, have fallen continuously since the early 1980s, and yields on commercial real estate have come down with them.  Most recent analysis, suggests that it is real rather than nominal interest Read More >

For most of human history matters of life and death lay almost entirely outside the material world. Saving a life at any cost feels to most of us like a moral imperative, but the astonishing leaps forward in science and technology that define Read More >

veryone agrees that people’s life and wellness are more important than GDP figures. But GDP figures are not only the invention of cold-hearted economists with nothing but monetary transactions on their mind. They capture something in the real Read More >

Incredibly, I have been involved in preparing forecasts of the UK economy for 45 years. I have a reputation for making bearish calls – occasionally successfully – but have never produced, or agonised over, a forecast as terrible as the one Read More >

The property industry faces a ‘U’ shaped recession, which will lead to investors reshaping portfolios with liquidity in mind.  In early April, the PMI indices from IHS Markit were released for most leading economies, and they were Read More >

According to Times columnist James Marriott, local councils should “think twice” before selling off their collections of Venetian paintings, Egyptian pots and Roman coins to raise funds. His case sounds reasonable enough – that Read More >

This morning has seen a does of economic news from the epicentre of the current pandemic and hence crisis which is China. This is keenly awaited as we see how the economy responds to the pandemic. Sadly we seem already to be charging into what Read More >

The correct use of language may not appear to be a priority in our straitened circumstances, but the misuse of technical terms has a capacity to spread confusion and misunderstanding. This, in turn, leads to poor decision-making and financial Read More >

The battle that has raged for many years between the proponents of deflation and inflation has faded into irrelevance as it is increasingly clear that we are going to have both, in swift succession. The deflationists, like Albert Edwards, will Read More >

What’s the better for dealing with pandemic disease: martial-law quarantines imposed by the state according to geography, or keeping society open while trusting medical professionals, individuals, families, and communities to make intelligent Read More >

Covid-19 may or may not trigger global recession, but financial market fragility is laid bare. Here’s the conundrum: invest with the madness or against the madness? Credit and financial markets have become increasingly reflexive as Read More >

Last week equity markets concluded that the spread of coronavirus has major implications for economic growth and corporate profits. The sell-off in US equities was the sharpest correction since the Great Depression in 1933. It is a measure of Read More >

With a new Chancellor in place, all bets are off when it comes to next month’s Budget. So what can business leaders hope for from the Treasury? As a Yorkshire MP, Rishi Sunak will no doubt be fully behind the Prime Minister’s ‘levelling Read More >

This weekend saw the collapse of yet another attempt to fix the deeply broken British system of property tax. A trial balloon of a new ‘mansion tax’, floated to the papers, was quickly shot down by a barrage of outrage from the Conservative Read More >

Just as geopolitical headwinds eased in late January with a phase-one U.S./China trade deal and the U.K. formally leaving the European Union, worries about the Chinese coronavirus outbreak surged and the growing optimism on global growth Read More >

The weekend just gone was one where an epidemic began to have more economic consequences. In a world where there appears to be a Trump Tweet for pretty much everything this one from Friday is not going so well. China has been working very Read More >

Almost all the commentary ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting at the end of the month has focused on whether interest rates should be cut, or left on hold. In contrast, I would be itching to vote for a hike. There does at Read More >

The internet is an integral part of our daily lives, providing vital products and services, but most of us probably don’t realise just how much it contributes to our economy. In fact, the internet sector accounts for almost 400,000 Read More >

What a difference a year makes! And why should the calendar matter so much, if at all? Many investors began 2019 with their performance in shreds, bracing for the worst. They finished 2019 boasting that global stock markets had posted their best Read More >

The forecasts for 2020 suggest another lacklustre year in store for the British economy. The median prediction for GDP growth, according to the latest survey of independent forecasters compiled by HM Treasury, is just 1%. That would Read More >

Several shocks, both positive and negative, have prevented the US economy entering an overdue recessionary phase The US economy is in its longest economic expansion on record. The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.5% in September Read More >

Ultra-low interest rates were only ever meant to be a short-term move, to stimulate investment. Where is the normalisation we were promised? This has been a year in which, amid the many surprises that have made mugs of forecasters, the big Read More >

It’s hard to know if debt refinancing at today’s rates is a gross distortion of reality or the shape of things to come Are interest rate cycles a thing of the past? Have we entered an age of permanently cheap capital? It is astonishing to Read More >

The most important policy of Boris Johnson’s new government may be one that wasn’t in the manifesto at all. Today’s news that the government intends radical planning reform is welcome to everyone who understands the profound damage to Read More >

After a difficult year for the global economy, is the turning point drawing close? Twelve months ago, many in the property industry were concerned about an approaching downturn for the global economy. Sadly, those fears about 2019 proved to Read More >

In the past there has been scepticism about climate change. The scientific evidence has put paid to that. It is unequivocal. Now, instead, the scepticism appears to be about whether economic growth can be achieved alongside addressing climate Read More >

At the dawn of the 2020s, China is facing challenges that are perhaps the most serious since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976. Until relatively recently, these were predominantly home-grown problems gathering momentum slowly over the last Read More >

Globalisation is under attack in ways which would be scarcely imaginable even just a few years ago. That the President on the USA now proudly brands himself ‘Tariff Man’ is testimony to this fact. But it’s not just sloganeering – Read More >

Recently released Government housebuilding data contains a pleasant surprise – the number of new dwellings in England was over 241,000. This is the highest rate of housebuilding in England since the target for 240,000 new homes a year for the Read More >

This Christmas, 126,000 children in England will be living in temporary accommodation, having been made homeless with their families. The failure by successive governments to build enough social housing has made it impossible for low income Read More >

Boris Johnson’s decision to postpone next year’s planned cut in corporation tax is risky – both as a piece of politics and as economics. If anyone can sell it, I suspect that he can, but it’s still not necessarily a good move. To Read More >

The governmental art of calling for an independent study is making sure you’ll get the answer you want before it begins. Much of that depends, of course, on appointing the right person to carry out the research. The ‘independence’ part Read More >

Glory be, the International Energy Agency has declared that climate change is nearly solved – and it won’t require us all returning to medieval lifestyles or overthrowing globalised industrial capitalism, as Greta and Extinction Rebellion Read More >

‘Rebalancing Britain’ is a major collaboration between CapX and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation focusing on how the Government should tackle the longstanding imbalances in the British economy. The project focuses not only on the Read More >

The actual first rule of Fight Club is to get your retaliation in first. It is this which explains the two linked stories today. Why are tech companies employing the likes of Nick Clegg and David Cameron? One is simply awaiting the Read More >

How technological advances will reshape the real estate sector Without new data systems to monitor and respond to market forces, property companies will fall behind the curve as new technologies are adopted. Real estate has always been a Read More >

According to a recent article, the latest thing to worry about is the water content of food. That’s not to say the water in the food itself, but how much was used in production. It’s a superficially appealing complaint, but one that Read More >

More likely those yield falls are just an anticipation that policy-makers will cave in and cut interest rates US political adviser James Carville is reputed to have said: “I used to think that, if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come Read More >

The 21st century global economy is characterised by a number of trends, including the growth of cross-border trade in services, among others such as e-commerce. For Britain, focusing on services plays to its strengths as a largely services-based Read More >

How seriously should we take warnings that prices could fall by a third or more? It goes without saying that we are in a period of extreme uncertainty. The main cause, of course, is Brexit, and the question of whether Britain can achieve an Read More >

With an election on the way, all parties will be looking for ways to fund their pledges. The IPPR has a proposal that should appeal to parties on both the left and the right: reform our tax system so that those who earn their income from wealth Read More >

There has been no shortage of serious-sounding warnings about the profound threats to capitalism in recent years. I would know. I’ve written some myself — including for this website. You don’t have to look far to find cause for alarm. Read More >

Last week South Australia announced it would be lifting its ban on the growth of genetically modified organisms (GMO). Starting December 1st, 2019 farmers in this state will have the ability to choose what types of crops they want to grow. The Read More >

The conventional explanation for the protests that have gripped Hong Kong in recent weeks is that they have been triggered by opposition to the government’s extradition bill, but the true causes run much deeper. Planning consultants Read More >

In April of this year, Government made clear its intention to consult on the abolition of Section 21 of the Housing Act 1988, more commonly known as ‘no fault evictions’. Its stated objectives; to ensure that tenants have the security they Read More >

“We’ve had a change in the laws,” says Gavin Sathianathan. “But that’s a necessary, not a sufficient, condition towards people getting access to cannabis medicines.” More and more people are using cannabis as a medicine, both in Read More >

Even as the United Kingdom hurtles inexorably closer towards October 31 – the legal default date for exiting the European Union with no deal – official data continues to confound the received wisdom of most economic commentators. Just Read More >

Over the last few weeks of protests in Hong Kong, culminating in the violence in the Legco building last week, most people have rightly concluded that: at best, the end of the ‘one country two systems’  m.o. will be Read More >

The Centre for Cities recently suggested England should end its housing crisis by ‘turning Japanese’ and copying their planning system. One can see the attraction. Japan uses a system of zoning where the government sets out in Read More >

What poor countries really need more of is supermarkets. That’s the conclusion to draw from the latest leaked report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Of course, it’s not what the usual environmentalist suspects are Read More >

The Bank of England’s latest round of bank stress tests in November 2018 painted a reassuring picture of bank resilience. The message was that the UK banking system is now so strong that it can come through another crisis that is more severe Read More >

As the new Chief Secretary to the Treasury (CST), Rishi Sunak has one of the toughest jobs in government. The CST’s main responsibility is the control of public expenditure – even more challenging than usual given the political Read More >

With the recent interest in Mars’ mineral resources, how far are we really from realising interplanetary living? I’ll admit, I did listen to the Bowie classic to get some inspiration for this article. Although the lyrics seemed to be Read More >

One of the many problems with John McDonnell is that he doesn’t understand how markets work. His latest outlandish claim is that Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister will increase the value of the pound. And this really, really, Read More >

Homeownership in the U.S. is still being held back by two key demographic and lifestyle trends. The millennial generation has delayed marrying and delayed starting families, both traditional trigger points for moving out of multifamily rental Read More >

Figure 1 shows the CBRE ‘real time’ G7 economy tracker, made up of the best and most timely monthly economic data.   The main developed economies (U.S.A., Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, U.K.) known as the G7 have slowed Read More >

Take a quick stroll through a bustling city like London or New York, and you can’t help but feel that such places are the antithesis of environmental sustainability. Yet counterintuitively, large metropolises like these might just be some of Read More >

The UK made headlines this week, becoming the first major economy to commit to reduce its climate harming emissions to net zero by 2050. Although well received by business and the national farmers union, some critics have raised concerns about Read More >

On his immensely popular HBO show last Friday, the host of Real Time with Bill Maher observed, “Not every movie set in the future has to be a super clean utopia or a smouldering post apocalypse.” “Isn’t there something in Read More >

The dynamics of the UK’s housing crisis are well-documented: millions prevented from getting on the housing ladder, sky-high rents for often woefully inadequate accommodation and, underpinning it all, a planning system seemingly designed to Read More >

“Is it OK to still have children?” That’s a question that bothers the environmental consciousness of Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Comedian Bill Maher thinks that he has the answer. “The great under-discussed factor in Read More >

Few tears will be shed for the disappearance of a considerable portion of Sir Philip Green’s fortune.  According to The Sunday Times rich list, his Arcadia empire now has no net value. For many, this will be seen as a timely Read More >

When Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss made the bold call for one million homes to be built on the green belt, some were quick to point out that such a policy wouldn’t necessarily receive a warm welcome from voters. Will Tanner, Read More >

Most of the people alive now are incredibly fortunate compared to almost all of their ancestors. According to the World Bank, less than 10 per cent of the world’s population is now living in absolute poverty, at the edge of bare subsistence. Read More >

‘In the early morning the shirt factory horn called women from Creggan, the Moor, and the Bog.’ The lyrics of Phil Coulter’s popular song, ‘The Town I Iove so well,’ evoke a time when Derry, under fire in the early days of Northern Read More >

How will we cope with the costs of an ageing population? Yesterday, in an article for The Daily Telegraph, David Willetts made the case that this will soon become the issue in British politics. His piece was prompted by a new report from Read More >

The shale revolution in the United States has been of huge significance. Not only is that nation meeting its own energy needs but it has started exporting both oil and gas. It is astonishing to consider that only a decade ago few had heard of Read More >

The choice, apparently, is simple: capitalism or the planet. In a television clip that quickly went viral last week, Guardian columnist George Monbiot said that the way to prevent climate breakdown was to “change the system”: We have Read More >

The Government has decided, for reasons unknown, to effectively abolish the assured shorthold tenancy, leaving the assured tenancy as the only viable form of renting. That sounds pretty trivial, but it is not far off a return to the situation Read More >

Last week, I wrote about the cost of food in the United States between 1919 and 2019. Using historical data, I showed that, on average, basic food items have become much cheaper relative to the wages of unskilled laborers. I focused on unskilled Read More >

The National Minimum Wage is 20 years old today. Despite the controversy surrounding its inception, it is now widely accepted across the political spectrum. As I noted recently, it looks as though Philip Hammond wants to increase it Read More >

With everything going on in Westminster at the moment, it’s easy to forget that Brexit was meant to be about taking back control. Some people dismiss that idea as mere campaign rhetoric, of course. Others see it as little more than jingoism. Read More >

The struggle for women’s liberation is often framed in terms of the campaign to secure the vote in the early years of the 20th century. Less heralded is the way women in several Western nations acquired property rights in the middle decades of Read More >

Yesterday’s report from the Campaign to Protect Rural England about the brownfield land with space for a million homes perfectly illustrates the organisation’s many strengths, and its weaknesses. With exquisite attention to detail, it Read More >

South of the Limpopo, the South African government has been busy restructuring the economy along racial lines for decades. The “colour bar,” which was a system of racial preferences designed to protect white workers from their black Read More >

When the European Central Bank announced the end of quantitative easing in December, it was conveying a very clear message to markets and governments alike: we are approaching the end of expansionary monetary policies, so get ready for Read More >

The great train debate is not just a minor contretemps between the small-state supporters and scorners. It is one that has implications for millions of people everyday. You may have read other authors on this site extol the virtues of Read More >

Who has been the greatest force for economic liberalisation over the past 40 or 50 years? Was it Margaret Thatcher in Britain, who led the way with a programme of privatisation? What about Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who did so much Read More >

One doesn’t expect to find the Guardian extolling the virtues of capitalism, but yesterday’s long-read on Aldi may be the exception that proves the rule. The story of the deep discounting supermarket and its near identical rival, Lidl, is Read More >

A recent study estimates that the full burden of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump fell on American consumers. As reports claim that the Department for International Trade (DIT) intends to cut 80-90 per cent of the Read More >

We may be less than a month from leaving the European Union, but so much about our future remains unclear. One of the critical questions that we need to be asking is, post Brexit, what is Britain’s role in the world? Our report Global Read More >

There’s nothing so dangerous to the public interest as the entire political class agreeing on a single idea. Yet this is what is happening in Washington, DC, about the issue of share buybacks and dividends. That Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Read More >

A new report from the Social Market Foundation, suggesting building co-living spaces for sale to mitigate the housing crisis, has attracted the usual backlash. Much of the opposition to tiny homes, co-living facilities and the like comes from Read More >

Writing in a blog for the New Economics Foundation (NEF), Alfie Sterling has made the striking claim that fixing the public sector finances has “suppressed the economy by almost £100 billion”, or “around £1,500 for every Read More >

A new report from the lengthily titled Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee has made for some exciting headlines this morning. Beware, Britain could be about to turn into a nation of “ghost towns” unless we take urgent action Read More >

PART III: the UK Macro and Micro Factors Following on from Part 2 of The UK Housing Market in 2019: the Deep Trends, where I analysed domestic macro factors in the forecasting the near-term future of house prices here in the UK and for 2019, Read More >

Despite giddy excitement in Westminster regarding the formation of The Independent Group, the most sobering news of the week was the announcement that Honda would be closing its Swindon factory in 2021, taking 7000 jobs with it. The news Read More >

Last week, I wrote about Jason Hickel’s romantic idea that people in the past “lived well” with little or no monetary income. I noted that prior to the Industrial Revolution, clothing was immensely expensive and uncomfortable. The cotton Read More >

Unlike most issues in politics today, there is widespread agreement that the UK is facing a housing crisis. While new-build volumes have risen since the financial crisis of 2008/09, they are still way short of the 300,000 per year target that Read More >

The German authorities have recently banned short selling in a company called Wirecard – this is the wrong decision. It misses the point of what markets are actually about, namely finding the correct price for something. If that happens to Read More >

PART II: the UK Macro Factors Following on from Part 1, where I analysed global macro factors in the forecasting the near-term future of house prices here in the UK and for 2019, I will now shift my focus to the meaty questions: what Read More >

On January 29, the Guardian ran a column that sparked an interesting debate on two continents. Anthropologist Jason Hickel from the University of London rejected the generally-accepted estimate of reduction in absolute poverty “from 94 percent Read More >

Last week, polling for CapX found broad agreement that there is a housing crisis in Britain, though people in all regions thought it was less bad in their local area, with politicians the most likely culprits in the eyes of voters. This week Read More >

PART I: The Global Macro Factors Time and again, I am asked: What about the future? What can you tell me about what will happen tomorrow? Next week? Next month? Next year?  In this series, I will be doing just that and forecasting the Read More >

London is the lodestar of the UK economy - but it has an image problem According to a newly released report, it’s time for London to shed its uncaring image and show the rest of the UK a little love. The Centre for London’s London, Read More >

According to the Times, stamp duty receipts fell by nearly £1 billion last year as a result of another misguided bit of tax tinkering introduced by George Osborne back in 2014. Osborne had planned to shift the tax burden onto the most expensive Read More >

Civil unrest in Venezuela has dominated headlines over the last few weeks. The Venezuelan people are protesting against the continued autocratic rule of President Nicolas Maduro. Following his sham re-election last May, during which he Read More >

The annual Halifax quality of life survey tells us that Orkney is the best place to live in the UK. This is something of a puzzling conclusion, as only those 22,000 people living on the remote islands seem to agree. The confusion increases Read More >

As the “news” breaks that perhaps nearly one per cent of the enormous green belt surrounding London has been allocated for 200,000 homes, let us ask: who benefits? News of potential green belt encroachment is the Campaign to Protect Rural Read More >

This month Oxfam released a report, as it does every year, pointing out that there are some very rich people in the world and how terrible this is. The report gained a great deal of media attention (as it does every year), with the vast majority Read More >

“Economic progress, in capitalist society, means turmoil” wrote Joseph Schumpeter. Society can’t move forward if we don’t make space for new ideas. If we want creation then we must accept the destruction that comes with it. You can’t Read More >

Article by Centre for London Research Manager, Silviya Barrett. The number of people living in rented accommodation in London has been growing for years. Private renters now outnumber mortgaged home owners in the capital. It’s not that Read More >

“The chairman of the People’s Vote campaign now joins us from Davos” announced a BBC Radio 4 interviewer yesterday. No surprises there, then. The World Economic Forum in Davos is precisely where one would expect to find the kind of Read More >

With the US government in such a state of paralysis that Donald Trump has taken to ordering vast amounts of fast food to the White House, it’s a good time for a study on the actual costs and benefits of the President’s border wall with Read More >

Around the time the US Congress debated the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”), opinion surveys on the subject showed an intriguing divide. When voters were asked about individual components of Obamacare, it turned out Read More >

Can I start by thanking the CPS for hosting this event? Everyone knows the CPS matters, not just for Conservatives, but for politics as a whole. Robert Colvile, Alex Morton and the rest of the team are producing exceptional work, and Westminster Read More >

Are we running out of resources? That’s been a hotly debated question since the publication of Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb in 1968. The Stanford University biologist warned that population growth would result in the exhaustion of Read More >

The report is divided into the following sections: 1) A summary of November performance As can be seen from the table below, (which is ranked by average November 2018 returns for each main mandate) the last month was positive for most Read More >

As has long been predicted, HS2 is blasting through its budget limits. The latest difficulty is buying the land needed to build the train line over. As is normal in such things there’s more than a little vituperation about the prices paid and Read More >

I have had two contrasting experiences. First, I had a student come to office hours saying it was hard to figure which of all the cacophony of economy ideas put forward in the news to take seriously. I pointed out that unlike climate science, Read More >

Are we running out of resources? That’s been a hotly debated question since the publication of Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb in 1968. The Stanford University biologist warned that population growth would result in the exhaustion of Read More >

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, is reported to be considering bringing in rent controls. It is not clear that he has power to do that, or how it would work. Rent control might improve the lot of suffering existing tenants, at least for a Read More >

Christopher Cole of Artemis Capital Management in Texas, published a research article in July entitled, What is water in the markets?, which has resonated powerfully with the investment community and performed a valuable service in identifying Read More >

Britain has undergone a jobs revolution since 2010. On average, 1,000 jobs have been created every single day, and at the time of writing, only six have been taken by George Osborne. Despite this, Britain’s productivity growth has struggled to Read More >

Much was made of the amount the UK contributes to the EU budget during the EU referendum campaign and much is still being made of it, with talk of a “Brexit dividend” and a “divorce bill”, as we approach Britain’s exit. With Read More >

The two economists Hayek and Keynes agreed on one thing. They both believed that ideas and the climate of opinion determined how politicians behaved. Indeed, the Institute of Economic Affairs was set up as a result of advice from Hayek. He told Read More >

Around the world, growing numbers of governments are using economic sanctions as a tool to influence the behaviour of other countries. Their tactics are nothing new. Sanctions and embargoes have a long and chequered past, dating back to Read More >

At our recent Economic Perspectives breakfast seminar, ‘Who saves the world from 2020 peril?’, I identified three bear scenarios for the global economy and financial markets. While the threats to prosperity and tranquillity that they Read More >

Britain in 2025 will be very different from today. London and the UK reached peak inequality in 2018. That was when income inequalities at the very top were first seen to fall. We are past the peak of income inequality today. House prices have Read More >

The internet is ubiquitous and essential in our daily lives. But to many policymakers, it badly lacks visibility. When it comes to the availability of statistics and real hard numbers about the contribution that the internet makes to the UK’s Read More >

Thanks to John McDonnell, a four-day working week is back in the news. The Shadow Chancellor has asked the economist Lord Skidelsky to write a report examining the case for working less and relaxing more. Skidelsky, who has been a member of Read More >

More news of Britain’s declining high street, with a Northumbria University study suggesting more than a quarter of Britain’s retail space has been abandoned since the 2008 financial crash. There are a few reasons for this change, not all Read More >

1) A summary of October performance As can be seen from the table below, (which is ranked by average October 2018 returns for each main mandate) the last month again proved a difficult one, with average YTD returns now all negative. 2) Read More >

With the benefit of hindsight, we have come to understand the true importance of China’s strategic policy interventions in 2009 and 2015. China’s reflationary actions had a material impact on the global economy. The question posed at a recent Read More >

In recent years, many US politicians and journalists have warned that the millennials are at the risk of ending up “poorer than their parents.” The evidence certainly suggests that the Great Recession has led to wage stagnation and high Read More >

Philip Hammond’s decision in last month's budget to abandon the Private Finance Initiative has been regarded by some commentators as the adoption of a “Corbyn-lite” policy by the Conservatives. Such a claim misses the point. After all, PFI Read More >

In last month's budget Philip Hammond finally unveiled his long-trailed plan to tax tech giants. From April 2020 onwards profitable digital businesses that bring in over £500m worth of global revenue must pay a 2 per cent tax on any revenue made Read More >

In a now-famous essay, “What is Seen and What Is Not Seen”, the great economist Frederic Bastiat warned against judging the value of any activity in a vacuum. Bastiat’s “broken window fallacy” brilliantly exposes a common tendency to Read More >

Brexit-backing industrialist/engineer James Dyson has chosen to build his new electric car in Singapore. Naturally, the likes of Andrew Adonis and Alastair Campbell were quick to weigh in, accusing Sir James of hypocrisy. Best for Britain, the Read More >

Oxfam thinks that Singapore is an unsuccessful economy – ranking it 149th out of 157 countries – because it has inequality. Singapore thinks that turning a fetid swamp into one of the world’s richest countries in only 80 years looks a lot Read More >

About a dozen times a year, Halkin Services holds a speaker event in London. The interests of our group of mainly financial professions are vast and wide, spanning macroeconomics and credit, global investment strategy and risk, intelligent Read More >

Patents are a rather controversial topic among pro-market thinkers. Some are very much in favour of them, seeing intellectual property as just another kind of property and as entitled to legal protection as any other. Others see patents as Read More >

For some time now, the UK Government has taken an open-minded approach to the potential development of UK shale gas, stating that it has the capacity to provide the “UK with greater energy security, growth and jobs” (HM Government, 2017). Read More >

Quantitative Easing (QE) has come under fire from many sides; it is charged with lowering capital expenditure and productivity, inflating pension costs, discouraging saving and widening inequality. The central banking alumni of Goldman Sachs, Read More >

As I loaded up the boxes full of kitchen utensils, clothing and work, there was a different, more certain feeling about returning to Cambridge to start my second year. The certainty of having an established group of friends meant that the Read More >

1) A summary of Q3 performance As can be seen from the table below, (which is ranked by average Q3 returns for each main mandate) The third quarter proved a difficult one, with only Income Funds moving into positive territory, and average Read More >

If you’ve seen the film Forrest Gump, you’ll probably recall that the central character ends up the multi-millionaire owner of a shrimp-fishing business and an investor in the nascent Apple computer company (I hope he held on to those Read More >

For a while we have been interested in the relationship between global M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) activity and CRE (Commercial Real Estate) investment. Strong M&A activity is highly correlated with strong CRE investment levels. The Read More >

I was recently at an event hosted by the Urban Land Institute and Transport for London, and there was a question raised about the impact on property values made by the transportation infrastructure in London. Most of us assumed that there is a Read More >

I have had it verified by those in a position to know that among many economists in the city of Minneapolis, there is an view that can be summarized as; General equilibrium good, partial equilibrium bad. I would like to contest the second Read More >

Despite global trade tensions, the global economy reached an estimated growth rate of 3.8% in the first half of 2018, the fastest since 2011, driven by growing consumer spending and massive fiscal stimulus enacted in the U.S. We might even argue Read More >

As a Cambridge Student, your first interaction with other members of the University tends to be through the College Parent system. Though this may sound odd, it is Cambridge’s system of assigning each newcomer with a set of parents, who are Read More >

Barack Obama once referred to income inequality as “the defining challenge of our time.” Not terrorism, sluggish economic growth or the ballooning national debt, but income inequality. And, to be fair to the departed president, income Read More >

Today, London contributes nearly a third of UK GDP. In the late 1990s it was less than 15 per cent. Despite being home to just 13 per cent of the population, it contributes a dramatically outsized share of national output. London saw a 49 per Read More >

We tend to conceptualise the housing crisis in terms of affordability – and justifiably so. Over the last two decades, the ratio of median house prices to earnings in England and Wales has more than doubled. Back in 1997, house prices Read More >

Tesco is returning to the happy days of founder Jack Cohen’s “pile it high and sell it cheap” philosophy with the opening of its new discount arm, Jack’s. Or to be more precise, Tesco has been forced to improve their offering to Read More >

Peter Warburton replies to Robin Marshall's response to his article. I am grateful to Robin Marshall for his comments on my article. I would like to respond to his substantive points, as follows. It is true that real yields on Tips have Read More >

Robin Marshall has responded to Peter Warburton's article titled 'What does the flattening yield curve mean'.  The first paragraph ends with a perfectly reasonable question about the information content of a flattening yield curve and whether Read More >

Despite stronger economic growth in Q2 2018, further Fed tightening and a bearish consensus that US interest rates would go substantially higher in 2018/19, financial markets now signal concern about weaker economic growth and inflation. This is Read More >

In recent weeks the debate about the significance of the flattening yield curve has reached fever pitch. Does a flat curve spell curtains for the US/UK economic expansion – and by extension, the global economic expansion? Can we hear the Read More >

The latest US jobs report showed that the American economy gained 157,000 jobs in July, and the unemployment rate inched down to 3.9 per cent. Meanwhile, the quarterly economic reportshowed the economy growing at 4.1 per cent, the highest Read More >

With real estate prices at cyclical highs, investors must look to the long term for outperformance. Understanding the evolution of global cities provides the best framework for alpha-generating real estate strategies in the current economic Read More >

If there is one thing that the Cambridge Analytica scandal taught us, it’s that politicians are mostly clueless about the political implications tech and social media bring about for society. What went largely unreported is that they also Read More >

The Great Moderation, the period of stable growth between the early-90s and late-2000s, has been back underway again for several years, but with noticeably less momentum. In the US, UK and Eurozone, annual rates of GDP growth of 3 per cent and 4 Read More >

Here is a link to my 68th Quartz column, "Economics is unemotional—and that's why it could help bridge America's partisan divide."    Note: You can see all of my previous Quartz columns listed in order of popularity here. In order to keep Read More >

Though the ongoing Brexit tussles in Parliament and Brussels have unsurprisingly created something of a policy vacuum, there is perhaps no greater crisis in contemporary British politics than housing. The extent of the problem is truly Read More >

Town versus country may seem like a question of personal preference, but it’s really a matter of human progress. Cities are the engines of human liberation and economic growth. Urbanisation is also good for the planet, for people in the cities Read More >

Many shops on the high street are struggling to make a profit and business rates are widely identified as one of the main causes of this slump. On Monday, Paul Johnson, the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, joined the debate. In a column Read More >

Across the world, more than a billion people raised out of poverty. At home, a greater array of goods and services than our grandparents could imagine along with cleaner, safer, and frankly more interesting jobs. And now the icing on the Read More >

If the Government ever wants to solve the housing crisis, they need to step up and dispel the Green Belt myth that has become so entrenched within the British psyche. The romanticised notion of a “green and pleasant land” is strangling our Read More >

Quick question: if I asked you to lend me £10 and then asked you to pay me for borrowing it from you, you’d think I was mad, right? Well this is currently the deal the world is getting when it lends money to Germany over any duration for the Read More >

Employment growth is one of the key indicators of the economic cycle in the U.S. It drops off just ahead of a recession, falls to negative in the trough and bounces back in recovery. Most industries follow this pattern, except for one – Read More >

Mariana Mazzucato is a professor of economics at University College London. She came to prominence following the publication of her 2013 book, The Entrepreneurial State, in which she argued for a bigger economic role for the state, claiming that Read More >

For some Conservatives, home ownership is a precondition for support for capitalism. But is that really the case? After all, you don’t need to own a farm or a factory to enjoy the benefits of their products. You can do very well in a Read More >

Having agreed a £20 billion “70th birthday present” for the NHS, the Government is now, naturally enough, facing pressure to raise spending in other areas. If Theresa May agrees to raise NHS spending and defence spending, schools will Read More >

The Brexit referendum in the UK taught me a great number of different things. The most important one of which is that I never quite realized just how many experts there are out there willing and able to offer an opinion, write a headline, and Read More >

If, as seems very likely, Parliament decides to endorse the Government’s plans to approve the building of a third runway at Heathrow Airport later today, there remains a very good chance that that runway will never actually be built. Indeed, it Read More >

If you were to invent an immigration system from scratch, only a lunatic would come up with the bureaucratic mess we have in the UK. Fortunately, new Home Secretary Sajid Javid is reversing some of the damage. First on his hit list was the Tier Read More >

2018 has registered a very healthy start with strong global GDP growth and historically low G7 unemployment rate. The global economy is poised to record the fastest growth (3.1%) in seven years, driven by the turbo charged U.S. economy and Read More >

According to the World Bank, the true and proper economic emancipation of women would make the world $160 trillion richer. However, this eye-catching figure gets things the wrong way round, confusing cause and effect. In fact, the correct Read More >

To extend credit to people in the knowledge that they are unlikely to repay is decried by some as predatory lending. Those suspected of engaging in this practice will face scorn from regulators and opprobrium in the media. Yet predatory is not Read More >

Getting rid of a unit of currency is a step usually only taken in extreme circumstances or after long, careful planning — Zimbabwe’s battle with hyperinflation is an example of the former, the transition to the euro the latter. India’s Read More >

Politics can often feel like a tug of war between two opposing tribes. On one end, small government conservatives pull society towards free markets and away from the forces of “big government”. On the other, social democrats pull with equal Read More >

Whatever the popular story of the time, the reason that cycles come to an end is that central banks raise interest rates to suppress inflation. Initially, business and consumer confidence prevents interest rates from having an immediate Read More >

The Resolution Foundation recently proposed to introduce a “citizen’s inheritance” of £10,000 in order to offset the growing wealth gap between generations. Free-market advocates did not welcome the report with open arms, and for good Read More >

On yesterday’s Sunday Politics, John McDonnell explained his party’s policy on profit sharing. He proposed that businesses should be required to share profits with workers either in the form of bonuses or share distributions. He said he Read More >

Welcome to this new column in which I will provide readers with an insider’s view of how family offices manage their assets. As a graduate of economics, I have applied my knowledge analysing economic and financial trends and applying it to Read More >

Interesting proof that Thomas Piketty got the modern economy wrong comes from The Sunday Times’s annual rich list, which was published yesterday. Some 94 per cent of the 1,000 people made the cut not by getting rich the old fashioned way — Read More >

One fascinating theme when looking across the history of politics in general, and of public opinion in particular, is that the great philosophical debates of one era simply don’t crop up in another. Some of the great ideological clashes of the Read More >

While Q1 2018 was expected to be a quiet one for the UK economy, last week’s news from the ONS that growth has slowed to just 0.1% - the lowest rate in five years – came as an unwelcome reminder of the economy’s vulnerability. Potholes and Read More >

The ONS published its preliminary estimate for GDP growth in the first three months of 2018. This found that growth that quarter was a stuttering 0.1 per cent. The figure is slower than the already-modest 0.4 per cent growth seen in the last Read More >

The news that Wembley Stadium looks like it is about to bought by Shahid Khan, the owner of  NFL team the Jacksonville Jaguars and Fulham FC, has been greeted with dismay by many commentators. It is all part of the narrative which takes issue Read More >

By anyone’s reckoning Britain faces a housing crisis. We simply do not have enough houses in the places that people want to work and live. Why is our planning system so broken? Well, folks, the clue is in the name: planning. We have tested to Read More >

In 1996, at the start of the dot-com boom, the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the United States reached 677. This marked the peak of new share offerings on American exchanges. It seems particularly fitting that, at the end of that Read More >

U.S real estate is having ‘a good cycle’. It is a long one by any standards.  We are also seeing shifts between sectors. Single family homes have given way to apartments; but the way in which the retail has ceded ground to industrial and Read More >

The 19th of April was David Ricardo’s birthday. Or at least it would have been were he still alive. The classical economist has been dead for nearly 200 years, but his insights and theories remain immeasurably valuable today. Yet Ricardo was, Read More >

I’ve just been listening to a radio interview with Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, in which he prevaricated endlessly about whether UK Bank Rate was going to rise. Not specifically in May, but at all. Since taking on the role in Read More >

In recent years, a growing number of prominent economists, including Michael Woodford, Christina Romer and Larry Summers, have switched their allegiance from inflation targeting to targeting nominal GDP, the non-inflation-adjusted sum of all Read More >

Most real estate value is created at the urban level, but some of the most expensive cities in the world are the least well-functioning.  So, it does not follow that improvements in the ways cities are run will flow directly into increased real Read More >

Be more like Japan. That is the takeaway from a Bloomberg column by the always-interesting Noah Smith. His is the latest article to look at Tokyo’s approach to housing for answers to the spiralling cost of homes in comparable Western Read More >

Lord Willetts today gave a speech at the Resolution Foundation calling for wealth taxes to be imposed on the baby boomer generation in order to fund their health and social care in old age and to prevent the burden being placed on younger Read More >

Fifty years have passed since Milton Friedman delivered his groundbreaking American Economic Association Presidential address on the role of monetary policy. Unfortunately, many of Friedman’s insights are neglected today. Friedman demolished Read More >

Keeping your funds in cash is generally viewed as much safer than holding them in stocks. This is because, on any given day, the value of the US and UK capital stock – as measured by the NYSE and FTSE indices – can easily fluctuate by one or Read More >

In 2005, futurist Ray Kurzweil shocked the world with his book, The Singularity is Near. He speculated that around the year 2045, the Singularity, which is to say a humanity which has merged with technology, will turn artificial intelligence (AI) Read More >

Central banks do not set interest rates. To be specific, central banks in large western democracies with open capital markets and flexible exchange rates do not set interest rates, other than for overnight money. That’s right! If Read More >

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