The Economist
Leading economists share their thoughts on money, rates and prices
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19th January 2021
Only in the make-believe world of analytical models can negative nominal interest rates be argued to do any real good.
Last October, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, ordered UK commercial banks to demonstrate their preparedness for the possible introduction of a negative interest rate policy (NIRP). From one perspective, this is merely a prudent step that enhances the central bank’s policy toolkit. From another, it is a further unwarranted and ill-advised step towards the complete... Read More >
Recent Articles:
12th January 2021
Should economic freedom take a back seat to civil rights? Jack Ma found out the hard way that both are equally important. The Alibaba founder and Chinese billionaire has been missing for over two months now following his recent criticism of Read More >
5th January 2021
The pandemic has created as many opportunities as it has removed, and there will be no lasting damage – not even for the young.
At the outset of this crisis, there were widespread concerns that the UK residential market would suffer Read More >
26th December 2020
Pornhub, the world’s largest aggregator of pornographic videos, has been cut off from accepting credit cards. The company is only accepting cryptocurrency for its premium service at present.
It happened quickly. On 4 December, New Read More >
10th December 2020
Biographers of John Maynard Keynes have a peculiar habit of treading very lightly around their subject matter’s involvement in the eugenics movement. The oversight is not for want of evidence.
In one of his last public appearances before Read More >
9th November 2020
The covid-19 pandemic has afflicted India with its biggest economic shock since the oil crises of the 1970s. The Indian economy, among the world’s fastest-growing emerging markets four years ago, contracted by a ghastly 24% in Q2 2020 and Read More >
2nd November 2020
One of the loudest and most frequent defences of WFH (aka working from home) is that it is perfectly viable in this ultra tech-age. Perfectly viable that co-workers can connect without being practically conjoined in an office setting. Let me be Read More >
29th October 2020
Like many of us, I had an iconic and charismatic high school teacher who left a lasting impression. He used to say something memorable about asking for forgiveness: “Apologise if you’re in the wrong,” he said, “but double down if Read More >
20th October 2020
As the outline of a new property landscape appears through the settling dust, investment professionals can start to do their jobs again.
When the UK moved into lockdown, inaction became the preferred strategy of many investors, and the Read More >
14th October 2020
Assessing value is no easy task, even in normal times. But we believe that assessing the relative value of commercial property against a range of alternative asset classes, including government and corporate bonds, and equities, is a useful Read More >
14th October 2020
The global monetary and fiscal stimulus implemented since the coronavirus erupted has been sizable, and policy-makers have acted with unprecedented speed. While it is recognised that this stimulus was necessary, the resulting increases in Read More >
12th October 2020
Predictions for prolonged British misery are based on fears of a no-deal Brexit and a pandemic second spike – but both risks carry little economic downside.
When any economy suffers significant job loss, three things need to follow to avoid Read More >
28th September 2020
Floating on a sea of money, will asset prices eventually sink – or make landfall on the solid ground of economic recovery?
Global equity markets have performed pretty well in the year to date, even as the world’s major economies are only Read More >
24th September 2020
Asia Pacific’s real estate focused stocks outperformed in August, edging ahead of the wider market. This was led by the wider GPR/APREA Composite Listed Real Estate Index, which returned 5.8%, powered mainly by the Australian and Japanese Read More >
23rd September 2020
Here at CBRE Global Investors we are knee-deep in our semi-annual ‘global house views’ process, where we update all our real assets forecasts, risk-adjusted returns, model portfolios and preferred strategies. In the pre-covid days, the Read More >
8th September 2020
Money is an indispensable part of modern economic activity. It was not always so: barter, where goods trade directly for other goods, was the norm for most of human history. But the rise of money as an economic institution greatly increased Read More >
25th August 2020
Inflation came in much stronger than economists anticipated across the major western economies in July, highlighting that the effects of the pandemic are not purely deflationary. In the UK, CPI inflation jumped up from +0.6% in June to +1.0% in Read More >
11th August 2020
This morning there will have been scenes at the Bank of England. Indeed there will have been jostling amongst the staff as they rush to be the one who presents the morning meeting. Whoever grabbed the gig will be facing a Governor who has a wide Read More >
10th August 2020
The disruption and uncertainty permeating Australia’s economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will mark the local housing market for some time to come. Demand in the market is always a challenge to predict and even more so given the rapid Read More >
29th July 2020
It is time to look again at a subject which pops up every now and then and this morning has done exactly that. From The Guardian:
The price of gold hit $1,865 per ounce for the first time since September 2011 this morning.
Gold has surged Read More >
25th July 2020
The resignation letter from former New York Times editor and writer Bari Weiss was so powerful because it seemed to state what many once-loyal readers – I’ve been among them for many years, even given the obvious bias of the paper – Read More >
16th July 2020
After digesting the initial shock of the coronavirus and its economic disruption, analysts are starting to assess the longer term impact of the pandemic. Not surprisingly, there has been much speculation about how the world could emerge, often Read More >
15th July 2020
Orthodox economics, we’re told more and more often these days, isn’t up to the task of dealing with a post-pandemic reality. The latest exemplar in the Observer complains, for instance, that old-fashioned economics relies too much on Read More >
13th July 2020
Many millions of people have spent the last four months in sadness and depression. It’s hard to watch the world shattered by the bad behavior of governments – and to see too many among us cheer the destruction – and not feel a sense of Read More >
9th July 2020
Sometimes you spot something that you cannot let pass and that has happened this morning. There is an interesting article in the Financial Times Alphaville section by a couple of portfolio manager’s at Man Group suggesting inflation is coming. Read More >
16th June 2020
Even before the crisis we remain engulfed in, there were those so distrustful of China’s actions and ambitions, they demanded the UK keep it at a long arms-length. So much so in fact they insisted we allow Huawei no part of our G5 telecom Read More >
2nd June 2020
A TV series about a struggling lawyer gives us some clues on what the post-Covid office might look like.
The announcement by Twitter that it will no longer oblige employees to ever return to the office has fuelled the “death of Read More >
14th May 2020
There may not be many reasons for optimism about the economic outlook, but one is the relative flexibility of the UK labour market. This should help unemployment to fall back and activity to recover more quickly – provided government gets out Read More >
1st May 2020
Long term interest rates, in real and nominal terms, have fallen continuously since the early 1980s, and yields on commercial real estate have come down with them. Most recent analysis, suggests that it is real rather than nominal interest Read More >
27th April 2020
For most of human history matters of life and death lay almost entirely outside the material world. Saving a life at any cost feels to most of us like a moral imperative, but the astonishing leaps forward in science and technology that define Read More >
23rd April 2020
veryone agrees that people’s life and wellness are more important than GDP figures. But GDP figures are not only the invention of cold-hearted economists with nothing but monetary transactions on their mind. They capture something in the real Read More >
15th April 2020
Incredibly, I have been involved in preparing forecasts of the UK economy for 45 years. I have a reputation for making bearish calls – occasionally successfully – but have never produced, or agonised over, a forecast as terrible as the one Read More >
8th April 2020
The property industry faces a ‘U’ shaped recession, which will lead to investors reshaping portfolios with liquidity in mind.
In early April, the PMI indices from IHS Markit were released for most leading economies, and they were Read More >
6th April 2020
According to Times columnist James Marriott, local councils should “think twice” before selling off their collections of Venetian paintings, Egyptian pots and Roman coins to raise funds.
His case sounds reasonable enough – that Read More >
2nd April 2020
This morning has seen a does of economic news from the epicentre of the current pandemic and hence crisis which is China. This is keenly awaited as we see how the economy responds to the pandemic. Sadly we seem already to be charging into what Read More >
1st April 2020
The correct use of language may not appear to be a priority in our straitened circumstances, but the misuse of technical terms has a capacity to spread confusion and misunderstanding. This, in turn, leads to poor decision-making and financial Read More >
23rd March 2020
The battle that has raged for many years between the proponents of deflation and inflation has faded into irrelevance as it is increasingly clear that we are going to have both, in swift succession. The deflationists, like Albert Edwards, will Read More >
13th March 2020
What’s the better for dealing with pandemic disease: martial-law quarantines imposed by the state according to geography, or keeping society open while trusting medical professionals, individuals, families, and communities to make intelligent Read More >
12th March 2020
Covid-19 may or may not trigger global recession, but financial market fragility is laid bare.
Here’s the conundrum: invest with the madness or against the madness? Credit and financial markets have become increasingly reflexive as Read More >
3rd March 2020
Last week equity markets concluded that the spread of coronavirus has major implications for economic growth and corporate profits. The sell-off in US equities was the sharpest correction since the Great Depression in 1933. It is a measure of Read More >
28th February 2020
With a new Chancellor in place, all bets are off when it comes to next month’s Budget. So what can business leaders hope for from the Treasury?
As a Yorkshire MP, Rishi Sunak will no doubt be fully behind the Prime Minister’s ‘levelling Read More >
21st February 2020
This weekend saw the collapse of yet another attempt to fix the deeply broken British system of property tax. A trial balloon of a new ‘mansion tax’, floated to the papers, was quickly shot down by a barrage of outrage from the Conservative Read More >
13th February 2020
Just as geopolitical headwinds eased in late January with a phase-one U.S./China trade deal and the U.K. formally leaving the European Union, worries about the Chinese coronavirus outbreak surged and the growing optimism on global growth Read More >
30th January 2020
The weekend just gone was one where an epidemic began to have more economic consequences. In a world where there appears to be a Trump Tweet for pretty much everything this one from Friday is not going so well.
China has been working very Read More >
27th January 2020
Almost all the commentary ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting at the end of the month has focused on whether interest rates should be cut, or left on hold. In contrast, I would be itching to vote for a hike.
There does at Read More >
23rd January 2020
The internet is an integral part of our daily lives, providing vital products and services, but most of us probably don’t realise just how much it contributes to our economy.
In fact, the internet sector accounts for almost 400,000 Read More >
16th January 2020
What a difference a year makes! And why should the calendar matter so much, if at all? Many investors began 2019 with their performance in shreds, bracing for the worst. They finished 2019 boasting that global stock markets had posted their best Read More >
15th January 2020
The forecasts for 2020 suggest another lacklustre year in store for the British economy.
The median prediction for GDP growth, according to the latest survey of independent forecasters compiled by HM Treasury, is just 1%. That would Read More >
31st December 2019
Several shocks, both positive and negative, have prevented the US economy entering an overdue recessionary phase
The US economy is in its longest economic expansion on record. The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.5% in September Read More >
30th December 2019
Ultra-low interest rates were only ever meant to be a short-term move, to stimulate investment. Where is the normalisation we were promised?
This has been a year in which, amid the many surprises that have made mugs of forecasters, the big Read More >
23rd December 2019
It’s hard to know if debt refinancing at today’s rates is a gross distortion of reality or the shape of things to come
Are interest rate cycles a thing of the past? Have we entered an age of permanently cheap capital? It is astonishing to Read More >
20th December 2019
The most important policy of Boris Johnson’s new government may be one that wasn’t in the manifesto at all. Today’s news that the government intends radical planning reform is welcome to everyone who understands the profound damage to Read More >
20th December 2019
After a difficult year for the global economy, is the turning point drawing close?
Twelve months ago, many in the property industry were concerned about an approaching downturn for the global economy. Sadly, those fears about 2019 proved to Read More >
6th December 2019
In the past there has been scepticism about climate change. The scientific evidence has put paid to that. It is unequivocal.
Now, instead, the scepticism appears to be about whether economic growth can be achieved alongside addressing climate Read More >
6th December 2019
At the dawn of the 2020s, China is facing challenges that are perhaps the most serious since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976.
Until relatively recently, these were predominantly home-grown problems gathering momentum slowly over the last Read More >
5th December 2019
Globalisation is under attack in ways which would be scarcely imaginable even just a few years ago. That the President on the USA now proudly brands himself ‘Tariff Man’ is testimony to this fact.
But it’s not just sloganeering – Read More >
29th November 2019
Recently released Government housebuilding data contains a pleasant surprise – the number of new dwellings in England was over 241,000. This is the highest rate of housebuilding in England since the target for 240,000 new homes a year for the Read More >
25th November 2019
This Christmas, 126,000 children in England will be living in temporary accommodation, having been made homeless with their families. The failure by successive governments to build enough social housing has made it impossible for low income Read More >
18th November 2019
Boris Johnson’s decision to postpone next year’s planned cut in corporation tax is risky – both as a piece of politics and as economics. If anyone can sell it, I suspect that he can, but it’s still not necessarily a good move.
To Read More >
6th November 2019
The governmental art of calling for an independent study is making sure you’ll get the answer you want before it begins.
Much of that depends, of course, on appointing the right person to carry out the research. The ‘independence’ part Read More >
31st October 2019
Glory be, the International Energy Agency has declared that climate change is nearly solved – and it won’t require us all returning to medieval lifestyles or overthrowing globalised industrial capitalism, as Greta and Extinction Rebellion Read More >
30th October 2019
‘Rebalancing Britain’ is a major collaboration between CapX and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation focusing on how the Government should tackle the longstanding imbalances in the British economy. The project focuses not only on the Read More >
24th October 2019
The actual first rule of Fight Club is to get your retaliation in first.
It is this which explains the two linked stories today. Why are tech companies employing the likes of Nick Clegg and David Cameron? One is simply awaiting the Read More >
17th October 2019
How technological advances will reshape the real estate sector
Without new data systems to monitor and respond to market forces, property companies will fall behind the curve as new technologies are adopted. Real estate has always been a Read More >
10th October 2019
According to a recent article, the latest thing to worry about is the water content of food. That’s not to say the water in the food itself, but how much was used in production.
It’s a superficially appealing complaint, but one that Read More >
9th October 2019
More likely those yield falls are just an anticipation that policy-makers will cave in and cut interest rates
US political adviser James Carville is reputed to have said: “I used to think that, if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come Read More >
4th October 2019
The 21st century global economy is characterised by a number of trends, including the growth of cross-border trade in services, among others such as e-commerce. For Britain, focusing on services plays to its strengths as a largely services-based Read More >
30th September 2019
How seriously should we take warnings that prices could fall by a third or more?
It goes without saying that we are in a period of extreme uncertainty. The main cause, of course, is Brexit, and the question of whether Britain can achieve an Read More >
13th September 2019
With an election on the way, all parties will be looking for ways to fund their pledges. The IPPR has a proposal that should appeal to parties on both the left and the right: reform our tax system so that those who earn their income from wealth Read More >
11th September 2019
There has been no shortage of serious-sounding warnings about the profound threats to capitalism in recent years. I would know. I’ve written some myself — including for this website.
You don’t have to look far to find cause for alarm. Read More >
5th September 2019
Last week South Australia announced it would be lifting its ban on the growth of genetically modified organisms (GMO). Starting December 1st, 2019 farmers in this state will have the ability to choose what types of crops they want to grow. The Read More >
30th August 2019
The conventional explanation for the protests that have gripped Hong Kong in recent weeks is that they have been triggered by opposition to the government’s extradition bill, but the true causes run much deeper.
Planning consultants Read More >
19th August 2019
In April of this year, Government made clear its intention to consult on the abolition of Section 21 of the Housing Act 1988, more commonly known as ‘no fault evictions’. Its stated objectives; to ensure that tenants have the security they Read More >
16th August 2019
“We’ve had a change in the laws,” says Gavin Sathianathan. “But that’s a necessary, not a sufficient, condition towards people getting access to cannabis medicines.”
More and more people are using cannabis as a medicine, both in Read More >
16th August 2019
Even as the United Kingdom hurtles inexorably closer towards October 31 – the legal default date for exiting the European Union with no deal – official data continues to confound the received wisdom of most economic commentators.
Just Read More >
14th August 2019
Over the last few weeks of protests in Hong Kong, culminating in the violence in the Legco building last week, most people have rightly concluded that:
at best, the end of the ‘one country two systems’ m.o. will be Read More >
9th August 2019
The Centre for Cities recently suggested England should end its housing crisis by ‘turning Japanese’ and copying their planning system.
One can see the attraction. Japan uses a system of zoning where the government sets out in Read More >
8th August 2019
What poor countries really need more of is supermarkets.
That’s the conclusion to draw from the latest leaked report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Of course, it’s not what the usual environmentalist suspects are Read More >
6th August 2019
The Bank of England’s latest round of bank stress tests in November 2018 painted a reassuring picture of bank resilience. The message was that the UK banking system is now so strong that it can come through another crisis that is more severe Read More >
29th July 2019
As the new Chief Secretary to the Treasury (CST), Rishi Sunak has one of the toughest jobs in government. The CST’s main responsibility is the control of public expenditure – even more challenging than usual given the political Read More >
29th July 2019
With the recent interest in Mars’ mineral resources, how far are we really from realising interplanetary living?
I’ll admit, I did listen to the Bowie classic to get some inspiration for this article. Although the lyrics seemed to be Read More >
19th July 2019
One of the many problems with John McDonnell is that he doesn’t understand how markets work.
His latest outlandish claim is that Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister will increase the value of the pound. And this really, really, Read More >
19th July 2019
Homeownership in the U.S. is still being held back by two key demographic and lifestyle trends.
The millennial generation has delayed marrying and delayed starting families, both traditional trigger points for moving out of multifamily rental Read More >
17th July 2019
Figure 1 shows the CBRE ‘real time’ G7 economy tracker, made up of the best and most timely monthly economic data.
The main developed economies (U.S.A., Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, U.K.) known as the G7 have slowed Read More >
4th July 2019
Take a quick stroll through a bustling city like London or New York, and you can’t help but feel that such places are the antithesis of environmental sustainability. Yet counterintuitively, large metropolises like these might just be some of Read More >
28th June 2019
The UK made headlines this week, becoming the first major economy to commit to reduce its climate harming emissions to net zero by 2050. Although well received by business and the national farmers union, some critics have raised concerns about Read More >
19th June 2019
On his immensely popular HBO show last Friday, the host of Real Time with Bill Maher observed, “Not every movie set in the future has to be a super clean utopia or a smouldering post apocalypse.” “Isn’t there something in Read More >
7th June 2019
The dynamics of the UK’s housing crisis are well-documented: millions prevented from getting on the housing ladder, sky-high rents for often woefully inadequate accommodation and, underpinning it all, a planning system seemingly designed to Read More >
3rd June 2019
“Is it OK to still have children?”
That’s a question that bothers the environmental consciousness of Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Comedian Bill Maher thinks that he has the answer. “The great under-discussed factor in Read More >
16th May 2019
Few tears will be shed for the disappearance of a considerable portion of Sir Philip Green’s fortune. According to The Sunday Times rich list, his Arcadia empire now has no net value. For many, this will be seen as a timely Read More >
15th May 2019
When Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss made the bold call for one million homes to be built on the green belt, some were quick to point out that such a policy wouldn’t necessarily receive a warm welcome from voters.
Will Tanner, Read More >
11th May 2019
Most of the people alive now are incredibly fortunate compared to almost all of their ancestors. According to the World Bank, less than 10 per cent of the world’s population is now living in absolute poverty, at the edge of bare subsistence. Read More >
10th May 2019
‘In the early morning the shirt factory horn called women from Creggan, the Moor, and the Bog.’
The lyrics of Phil Coulter’s popular song, ‘The Town I Iove so well,’ evoke a time when Derry, under fire in the early days of Northern Read More >
4th May 2019
How will we cope with the costs of an ageing population? Yesterday, in an article for The Daily Telegraph, David Willetts made the case that this will soon become the issue in British politics.
His piece was prompted by a new report from Read More >
4th May 2019
The shale revolution in the United States has been of huge significance. Not only is that nation meeting its own energy needs but it has started exporting both oil and gas. It is astonishing to consider that only a decade ago few had heard of Read More >
21st April 2019
The choice, apparently, is simple: capitalism or the planet.
In a television clip that quickly went viral last week, Guardian columnist George Monbiot said that the way to prevent climate breakdown was to “change the system”:
We have Read More >
16th April 2019
The Government has decided, for reasons unknown, to effectively abolish the assured shorthold tenancy, leaving the assured tenancy as the only viable form of renting.
That sounds pretty trivial, but it is not far off a return to the situation Read More >
10th April 2019
Last week, I wrote about the cost of food in the United States between 1919 and 2019. Using historical data, I showed that, on average, basic food items have become much cheaper relative to the wages of unskilled laborers. I focused on unskilled Read More >
6th April 2019
The National Minimum Wage is 20 years old today. Despite the controversy surrounding its inception, it is now widely accepted across the political spectrum. As I noted recently, it looks as though Philip Hammond wants to increase it Read More >
5th April 2019
With everything going on in Westminster at the moment, it’s easy to forget that Brexit was meant to be about taking back control. Some people dismiss that idea as mere campaign rhetoric, of course. Others see it as little more than jingoism. Read More >
29th March 2019
The struggle for women’s liberation is often framed in terms of the campaign to secure the vote in the early years of the 20th century. Less heralded is the way women in several Western nations acquired property rights in the middle decades of Read More >
27th March 2019
Yesterday’s report from the Campaign to Protect Rural England about the brownfield land with space for a million homes perfectly illustrates the organisation’s many strengths, and its weaknesses.
With exquisite attention to detail, it Read More >
21st March 2019
South of the Limpopo, the South African government has been busy restructuring the economy along racial lines for decades. The “colour bar,” which was a system of racial preferences designed to protect white workers from their black Read More >
17th March 2019
When the European Central Bank announced the end of quantitative easing in December, it was conveying a very clear message to markets and governments alike: we are approaching the end of expansionary monetary policies, so get ready for Read More >
15th March 2019
The great train debate is not just a minor contretemps between the small-state supporters and scorners. It is one that has implications for millions of people everyday.
You may have read other authors on this site extol the virtues of Read More >
13th March 2019
Who has been the greatest force for economic liberalisation over the past 40 or 50 years?
Was it Margaret Thatcher in Britain, who led the way with a programme of privatisation? What about Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who did so much Read More >
10th March 2019
One doesn’t expect to find the Guardian extolling the virtues of capitalism, but yesterday’s long-read on Aldi may be the exception that proves the rule.
The story of the deep discounting supermarket and its near identical rival, Lidl, is Read More >
9th March 2019
A recent study estimates that the full burden of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump fell on American consumers. As reports claim that the Department for International Trade (DIT) intends to cut 80-90 per cent of the Read More >
8th March 2019
We may be less than a month from leaving the European Union, but so much about our future remains unclear. One of the critical questions that we need to be asking is, post Brexit, what is Britain’s role in the world?
Our report Global Read More >
28th February 2019
There’s nothing so dangerous to the public interest as the entire political class agreeing on a single idea. Yet this is what is happening in Washington, DC, about the issue of share buybacks and dividends. That Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Read More >
27th February 2019
A new report from the Social Market Foundation, suggesting building co-living spaces for sale to mitigate the housing crisis, has attracted the usual backlash.
Much of the opposition to tiny homes, co-living facilities and the like comes from Read More >
25th February 2019
Writing in a blog for the New Economics Foundation (NEF), Alfie Sterling has made the striking claim that fixing the public sector finances has “suppressed the economy by almost £100 billion”, or “around £1,500 for every Read More >
25th February 2019
A new report from the lengthily titled Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee has made for some exciting headlines this morning. Beware, Britain could be about to turn into a nation of “ghost towns” unless we take urgent action Read More >
25th February 2019
PART III: the UK Macro and Micro Factors
Following on from Part 2 of The UK Housing Market in 2019: the Deep Trends, where I analysed domestic macro factors in the forecasting the near-term future of house prices here in the UK and for 2019, Read More >
22nd February 2019
Despite giddy excitement in Westminster regarding the formation of The Independent Group, the most sobering news of the week was the announcement that Honda would be closing its Swindon factory in 2021, taking 7000 jobs with it.
The news Read More >
22nd February 2019
Last week, I wrote about Jason Hickel’s romantic idea that people in the past “lived well” with little or no monetary income. I noted that prior to the Industrial Revolution, clothing was immensely expensive and uncomfortable. The cotton Read More >
21st February 2019
Unlike most issues in politics today, there is widespread agreement that the UK is facing a housing crisis.
While new-build volumes have risen since the financial crisis of 2008/09, they are still way short of the 300,000 per year target that Read More >
20th February 2019
The German authorities have recently banned short selling in a company called Wirecard – this is the wrong decision.
It misses the point of what markets are actually about, namely finding the correct price for something. If that happens to Read More >
18th February 2019
PART II: the UK Macro Factors
Following on from Part 1, where I analysed global macro factors in the forecasting the near-term future of house prices here in the UK and for 2019, I will now shift my focus to the meaty questions: what Read More >
15th February 2019
On January 29, the Guardian ran a column that sparked an interesting debate on two continents. Anthropologist Jason Hickel from the University of London rejected the generally-accepted estimate of reduction in absolute poverty “from 94 percent Read More >
14th February 2019
Last week, polling for CapX found broad agreement that there is a housing crisis in Britain, though people in all regions thought it was less bad in their local area, with politicians the most likely culprits in the eyes of voters.
This week Read More >
13th February 2019
PART I: The Global Macro Factors
Time and again, I am asked: What about the future? What can you tell me about what will happen tomorrow? Next week? Next month? Next year?
In this series, I will be doing just that and forecasting the Read More >
9th February 2019
London is the lodestar of the UK economy - but it has an image problem
According to a newly released report, it’s time for London to shed its uncaring image and show the rest of the UK a little love. The Centre for London’s London, Read More >
4th February 2019
According to the Times, stamp duty receipts fell by nearly £1 billion last year as a result of another misguided bit of tax tinkering introduced by George Osborne back in 2014. Osborne had planned to shift the tax burden onto the most expensive Read More >
2nd February 2019
Civil unrest in Venezuela has dominated headlines over the last few weeks. The Venezuelan people are protesting against the continued autocratic rule of President Nicolas Maduro. Following his sham re-election last May, during which he Read More >
2nd February 2019
The annual Halifax quality of life survey tells us that Orkney is the best place to live in the UK. This is something of a puzzling conclusion, as only those 22,000 people living on the remote islands seem to agree.
The confusion increases Read More >
1st February 2019
As the “news” breaks that perhaps nearly one per cent of the enormous green belt surrounding London has been allocated for 200,000 homes, let us ask: who benefits?
News of potential green belt encroachment is the Campaign to Protect Rural Read More >
31st January 2019
This month Oxfam released a report, as it does every year, pointing out that there are some very rich people in the world and how terrible this is. The report gained a great deal of media attention (as it does every year), with the vast majority Read More >
26th January 2019
“Economic progress, in capitalist society, means turmoil” wrote Joseph Schumpeter. Society can’t move forward if we don’t make space for new ideas. If we want creation then we must accept the destruction that comes with it. You can’t Read More >
25th January 2019
Article by Centre for London Research Manager, Silviya Barrett.
The number of people living in rented accommodation in London has been growing for years. Private renters now outnumber mortgaged home owners in the capital. It’s not that Read More >
25th January 2019
“The chairman of the People’s Vote campaign now joins us from Davos” announced a BBC Radio 4 interviewer yesterday.
No surprises there, then.
The World Economic Forum in Davos is precisely where one would expect to find the kind of Read More >
18th January 2019
With the US government in such a state of paralysis that Donald Trump has taken to ordering vast amounts of fast food to the White House, it’s a good time for a study on the actual costs and benefits of the President’s border wall with Read More >
16th January 2019
Around the time the US Congress debated the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”), opinion surveys on the subject showed an intriguing divide. When voters were asked about individual components of Obamacare, it turned out Read More >
15th January 2019
Can I start by thanking the CPS for hosting this event? Everyone knows the CPS matters, not just for Conservatives, but for politics as a whole. Robert Colvile, Alex Morton and the rest of the team are producing exceptional work, and Westminster Read More >
4th January 2019
Are we running out of resources? That’s been a hotly debated question since the publication of Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb in 1968. The Stanford University biologist warned that population growth would result in the exhaustion of Read More >
2nd January 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:
1) A summary of November performance
As can be seen from the table below, (which is ranked by average November 2018 returns for each main mandate) the last month was positive for most Read More >
1st January 2019
As has long been predicted, HS2 is blasting through its budget limits. The latest difficulty is buying the land needed to build the train line over. As is normal in such things there’s more than a little vituperation about the prices paid and Read More >
31st December 2018
I have had two contrasting experiences. First, I had a student come to office hours saying it was hard to figure which of all the cacophony of economy ideas put forward in the news to take seriously. I pointed out that unlike climate science, Read More >
29th December 2018
Are we running out of resources? That’s been a hotly debated question since the publication of Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb in 1968. The Stanford University biologist warned that population growth would result in the exhaustion of Read More >
28th December 2018
The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, is reported to be considering bringing in rent controls.
It is not clear that he has power to do that, or how it would work. Rent control might improve the lot of suffering existing tenants, at least for a Read More >
27th December 2018
Christopher Cole of Artemis Capital Management in Texas, published a research article in July entitled, What is water in the markets?, which has resonated powerfully with the investment community and performed a valuable service in identifying Read More >
25th December 2018
Britain has undergone a jobs revolution since 2010. On average, 1,000 jobs have been created every single day, and at the time of writing, only six have been taken by George Osborne. Despite this, Britain’s productivity growth has struggled to Read More >
18th December 2018
Much was made of the amount the UK contributes to the EU budget during the EU referendum campaign and much is still being made of it, with talk of a “Brexit dividend” and a “divorce bill”, as we approach Britain’s exit. With Read More >
17th December 2018
The two economists Hayek and Keynes agreed on one thing. They both believed that ideas and the climate of opinion determined how politicians behaved. Indeed, the Institute of Economic Affairs was set up as a result of advice from Hayek. He told Read More >
14th December 2018
Around the world, growing numbers of governments are using economic sanctions as a tool to influence the behaviour of other countries. Their tactics are nothing new. Sanctions and embargoes have a long and chequered past, dating back to Read More >
14th December 2018
At our recent Economic Perspectives breakfast seminar, ‘Who saves the world from 2020 peril?’, I identified three bear scenarios for the global economy and financial markets. While the threats to prosperity and tranquillity that they Read More >
12th December 2018
Britain in 2025 will be very different from today. London and the UK reached peak inequality in 2018. That was when income inequalities at the very top were first seen to fall. We are past the peak of income inequality today. House prices have Read More >
10th December 2018
The internet is ubiquitous and essential in our daily lives. But to many policymakers, it badly lacks visibility. When it comes to the availability of statistics and real hard numbers about the contribution that the internet makes to the UK’s Read More >
8th December 2018
Thanks to John McDonnell, a four-day working week is back in the news. The Shadow Chancellor has asked the economist Lord Skidelsky to write a report examining the case for working less and relaxing more.
Skidelsky, who has been a member of Read More >
7th December 2018
More news of Britain’s declining high street, with a Northumbria University study suggesting more than a quarter of Britain’s retail space has been abandoned since the 2008 financial crash.
There are a few reasons for this change, not all Read More >
6th December 2018
1) A summary of October performance
As can be seen from the table below, (which is ranked by average October 2018 returns for each main mandate) the last month again proved a difficult one, with average YTD returns now all negative.
2) Read More >
5th December 2018
With the benefit of hindsight, we have come to understand the true importance of China’s strategic policy interventions in 2009 and 2015. China’s reflationary actions had a material impact on the global economy. The question posed at a recent Read More >
1st December 2018
In recent years, many US politicians and journalists have warned that the millennials are at the risk of ending up “poorer than their parents.” The evidence certainly suggests that the Great Recession has led to wage stagnation and high Read More >
30th November 2018
Philip Hammond’s decision in last month's budget to abandon the Private Finance Initiative has been regarded by some commentators as the adoption of a “Corbyn-lite” policy by the Conservatives. Such a claim misses the point. After all, PFI Read More >
29th November 2018
In last month's budget Philip Hammond finally unveiled his long-trailed plan to tax tech giants. From April 2020 onwards profitable digital businesses that bring in over £500m worth of global revenue must pay a 2 per cent tax on any revenue made Read More >
28th November 2018
In a now-famous essay, “What is Seen and What Is Not Seen”, the great economist Frederic Bastiat warned against judging the value of any activity in a vacuum.
Bastiat’s “broken window fallacy” brilliantly exposes a common tendency to Read More >
23rd November 2018
Brexit-backing industrialist/engineer James Dyson has chosen to build his new electric car in Singapore.
Naturally, the likes of Andrew Adonis and Alastair Campbell were quick to weigh in, accusing Sir James of hypocrisy. Best for Britain, the Read More >
19th November 2018
Oxfam thinks that Singapore is an unsuccessful economy – ranking it 149th out of 157 countries – because it has inequality. Singapore thinks that turning a fetid swamp into one of the world’s richest countries in only 80 years looks a lot Read More >
14th November 2018
About a dozen times a year, Halkin Services holds a speaker event in London. The interests of our group of mainly financial professions are vast and wide, spanning macroeconomics and credit, global investment strategy and risk, intelligent Read More >
13th November 2018
Patents are a rather controversial topic among pro-market thinkers. Some are very much in favour of them, seeing intellectual property as just another kind of property and as entitled to legal protection as any other. Others see patents as Read More >
12th November 2018
For some time now, the UK Government has taken an open-minded approach to the potential development of UK shale gas, stating that it has the capacity to provide the “UK with greater energy security, growth and jobs” (HM Government, 2017). Read More >
6th November 2018
Quantitative Easing (QE) has come under fire from many sides; it is charged with lowering capital expenditure and productivity, inflating pension costs, discouraging saving and widening inequality. The central banking alumni of Goldman Sachs, Read More >
6th November 2018
As I loaded up the boxes full of kitchen utensils, clothing and work, there was a different, more certain feeling about returning to Cambridge to start my second year. The certainty of having an established group of friends meant that the Read More >
31st October 2018
1) A summary of Q3 performance
As can be seen from the table below, (which is ranked by average Q3 returns for each main mandate) The third quarter proved a difficult one, with only Income Funds moving into positive territory, and average Read More >
24th October 2018
If you’ve seen the film Forrest Gump, you’ll probably recall that the central character ends up the multi-millionaire owner of a shrimp-fishing business and an investor in the nascent Apple computer company (I hope he held on to those Read More >
23rd October 2018
For a while we have been interested in the relationship between global M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) activity and CRE (Commercial Real Estate) investment. Strong M&A activity is highly correlated with strong CRE investment levels.
The Read More >
18th October 2018
I was recently at an event hosted by the Urban Land Institute and Transport for London, and there was a question raised about the impact on property values made by the transportation infrastructure in London. Most of us assumed that there is a Read More >
12th October 2018
I have had it verified by those in a position to know that among many economists in the city of Minneapolis, there is an view that can be summarized as;
General equilibrium good, partial equilibrium bad.
I would like to contest the second Read More >
11th October 2018
Despite global trade tensions, the global economy reached an estimated growth rate of 3.8% in the first half of 2018, the fastest since 2011, driven by growing consumer spending and massive fiscal stimulus enacted in the U.S. We might even argue Read More >
9th October 2018
As a Cambridge Student, your first interaction with other members of the University tends to be through the College Parent system. Though this may sound odd, it is Cambridge’s system of assigning each newcomer with a set of parents, who are Read More >
30th September 2018
Barack Obama once referred to income inequality as “the defining challenge of our time.” Not terrorism, sluggish economic growth or the ballooning national debt, but income inequality.
And, to be fair to the departed president, income Read More >
28th September 2018
Today, London contributes nearly a third of UK GDP. In the late 1990s it was less than 15 per cent. Despite being home to just 13 per cent of the population, it contributes a dramatically outsized share of national output. London saw a 49 per Read More >
27th September 2018
We tend to conceptualise the housing crisis in terms of affordability – and justifiably so. Over the last two decades, the ratio of median house prices to earnings in England and Wales has more than doubled.
Back in 1997, house prices Read More >
25th September 2018
Tesco is returning to the happy days of founder Jack Cohen’s “pile it high and sell it cheap” philosophy with the opening of its new discount arm, Jack’s.
Or to be more precise, Tesco has been forced to improve their offering to Read More >
11th September 2018
Peter Warburton replies to Robin Marshall's response to his article.
I am grateful to Robin Marshall for his comments on my article. I would like to respond to his substantive points, as follows.
It is true that real yields on Tips have Read More >
10th September 2018
Robin Marshall has responded to Peter Warburton's article titled 'What does the flattening yield curve mean'.
The first paragraph ends with a perfectly reasonable question about the information content of a flattening yield curve and whether Read More >
3rd September 2018
Despite stronger economic growth in Q2 2018, further Fed tightening and a bearish consensus that US interest rates would go substantially higher in 2018/19, financial markets now signal concern about weaker economic growth and inflation. This is Read More >
22nd August 2018
In recent weeks the debate about the significance of the flattening yield curve has reached fever pitch. Does a flat curve spell curtains for the US/UK economic expansion – and by extension, the global economic expansion? Can we hear the Read More >
17th August 2018
The latest US jobs report showed that the American economy gained 157,000 jobs in July, and the unemployment rate inched down to 3.9 per cent. Meanwhile, the quarterly economic reportshowed the economy growing at 4.1 per cent, the highest Read More >
7th August 2018
With real estate prices at cyclical highs, investors must look to the long term for outperformance. Understanding the evolution of global cities provides the best framework for alpha-generating real estate strategies in the current economic Read More >
2nd August 2018
If there is one thing that the Cambridge Analytica scandal taught us, it’s that politicians are mostly clueless about the political implications tech and social media bring about for society.
What went largely unreported is that they also Read More >
28th July 2018
The Great Moderation, the period of stable growth between the early-90s and late-2000s, has been back underway again for several years, but with noticeably less momentum. In the US, UK and Eurozone, annual rates of GDP growth of 3 per cent and 4 Read More >
26th July 2018
Here is a link to my 68th Quartz column, "Economics is unemotional—and that's why it could help bridge America's partisan divide." Note: You can see all of my previous Quartz columns listed in order of popularity here.
In order to keep Read More >
24th July 2018
Though the ongoing Brexit tussles in Parliament and Brussels have unsurprisingly created something of a policy vacuum, there is perhaps no greater crisis in contemporary British politics than housing.
The extent of the problem is truly Read More >
19th July 2018
Town versus country may seem like a question of personal preference, but it’s really a matter of human progress. Cities are the engines of human liberation and economic growth. Urbanisation is also good for the planet, for people in the cities Read More >
17th July 2018
Many shops on the high street are struggling to make a profit and business rates are widely identified as one of the main causes of this slump.
On Monday, Paul Johnson, the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, joined the debate. In a column Read More >
11th July 2018
Across the world, more than a billion people raised out of poverty. At home, a greater array of goods and services than our grandparents could imagine along with cleaner, safer, and frankly more interesting jobs.
And now the icing on the Read More >
10th July 2018
If the Government ever wants to solve the housing crisis, they need to step up and dispel the Green Belt myth that has become so entrenched within the British psyche. The romanticised notion of a “green and pleasant land” is strangling our Read More >
9th July 2018
Quick question: if I asked you to lend me £10 and then asked you to pay me for borrowing it from you, you’d think I was mad, right? Well this is currently the deal the world is getting when it lends money to Germany over any duration for the Read More >
6th July 2018
Employment growth is one of the key indicators of the economic cycle in the U.S. It drops off just ahead of a recession, falls to negative in the trough and bounces back in recovery. Most industries follow this pattern, except for one – Read More >
5th July 2018
Mariana Mazzucato is a professor of economics at University College London. She came to prominence following the publication of her 2013 book, The Entrepreneurial State, in which she argued for a bigger economic role for the state, claiming that Read More >
3rd July 2018
For some Conservatives, home ownership is a precondition for support for capitalism. But is that really the case? After all, you don’t need to own a farm or a factory to enjoy the benefits of their products.
You can do very well in a Read More >
2nd July 2018
Having agreed a £20 billion “70th birthday present” for the NHS, the Government is now, naturally enough, facing pressure to raise spending in other areas.
If Theresa May agrees to raise NHS spending and defence spending, schools will Read More >
29th June 2018
The Brexit referendum in the UK taught me a great number of different things. The most important one of which is that I never quite realized just how many experts there are out there willing and able to offer an opinion, write a headline, and Read More >
26th June 2018
If, as seems very likely, Parliament decides to endorse the Government’s plans to approve the building of a third runway at Heathrow Airport later today, there remains a very good chance that that runway will never actually be built. Indeed, it Read More >
22nd June 2018
If you were to invent an immigration system from scratch, only a lunatic would come up with the bureaucratic mess we have in the UK.
Fortunately, new Home Secretary Sajid Javid is reversing some of the damage. First on his hit list was the Tier Read More >
21st June 2018
2018 has registered a very healthy start with strong global GDP growth and historically low G7 unemployment rate. The global economy is poised to record the fastest growth (3.1%) in seven years, driven by the turbo charged U.S. economy and Read More >
20th June 2018
According to the World Bank, the true and proper economic emancipation of women would make the world $160 trillion richer. However, this eye-catching figure gets things the wrong way round, confusing cause and effect. In fact, the correct Read More >
14th June 2018
To extend credit to people in the knowledge that they are unlikely to repay is decried by some as predatory lending. Those suspected of engaging in this practice will face scorn from regulators and opprobrium in the media.
Yet predatory is not Read More >
12th June 2018
Getting rid of a unit of currency is a step usually only taken in extreme circumstances or after long, careful planning — Zimbabwe’s battle with hyperinflation is an example of the former, the transition to the euro the latter.
India’s Read More >
5th June 2018
Politics can often feel like a tug of war between two opposing tribes. On one end, small government conservatives pull society towards free markets and away from the forces of “big government”. On the other, social democrats pull with equal Read More >
1st June 2018
Whatever the popular story of the time, the reason that cycles come to an end is that central banks raise interest rates to suppress inflation.
Initially, business and consumer confidence prevents interest rates from having an immediate Read More >
29th May 2018
The Resolution Foundation recently proposed to introduce a “citizen’s inheritance” of £10,000 in order to offset the growing wealth gap between generations.
Free-market advocates did not welcome the report with open arms, and for good Read More >
29th May 2018
On yesterday’s Sunday Politics, John McDonnell explained his party’s policy on profit sharing. He proposed that businesses should be required to share profits with workers either in the form of bonuses or share distributions.
He said he Read More >
22nd May 2018
Welcome to this new column in which I will provide readers with an insider’s view of how family offices manage their assets. As a graduate of economics, I have applied my knowledge analysing economic and financial trends and applying it to Read More >
17th May 2018
Interesting proof that Thomas Piketty got the modern economy wrong comes from The Sunday Times’s annual rich list, which was published yesterday. Some 94 per cent of the 1,000 people made the cut not by getting rich the old fashioned way — Read More >
16th May 2018
One fascinating theme when looking across the history of politics in general, and of public opinion in particular, is that the great philosophical debates of one era simply don’t crop up in another. Some of the great ideological clashes of the Read More >
9th May 2018
While Q1 2018 was expected to be a quiet one for the UK economy, last week’s news from the ONS that growth has slowed to just 0.1% - the lowest rate in five years – came as an unwelcome reminder of the economy’s vulnerability. Potholes and Read More >
6th May 2018
The ONS published its preliminary estimate for GDP growth in the first three months of 2018. This found that growth that quarter was a stuttering 0.1 per cent.
The figure is slower than the already-modest 0.4 per cent growth seen in the last Read More >
5th May 2018
The news that Wembley Stadium looks like it is about to bought by Shahid Khan, the owner of NFL team the Jacksonville Jaguars and Fulham FC, has been greeted with dismay by many commentators. It is all part of the narrative which takes issue Read More >
4th May 2018
By anyone’s reckoning Britain faces a housing crisis. We simply do not have enough houses in the places that people want to work and live. Why is our planning system so broken?
Well, folks, the clue is in the name: planning.
We have tested to Read More >
3rd May 2018
In 1996, at the start of the dot-com boom, the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the United States reached 677. This marked the peak of new share offerings on American exchanges. It seems particularly fitting that, at the end of that Read More >
27th April 2018
U.S real estate is having ‘a good cycle’. It is a long one by any standards. We are also seeing shifts between sectors. Single family homes have given way to apartments; but the way in which the retail has ceded ground to industrial and Read More >
26th April 2018
The 19th of April was David Ricardo’s birthday. Or at least it would have been were he still alive. The classical economist has been dead for nearly 200 years, but his insights and theories remain immeasurably valuable today.
Yet Ricardo was, Read More >
24th April 2018
I’ve just been listening to a radio interview with Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, in which he prevaricated endlessly about whether UK Bank Rate was going to rise. Not specifically in May, but at all. Since taking on the role in Read More >
29th March 2018
In recent years, a growing number of prominent economists, including Michael Woodford, Christina Romer and Larry Summers, have switched their allegiance from inflation targeting to targeting nominal GDP, the non-inflation-adjusted sum of all Read More >
22nd March 2018
Most real estate value is created at the urban level, but some of the most expensive cities in the world are the least well-functioning. So, it does not follow that improvements in the ways cities are run will flow directly into increased real Read More >
16th March 2018
Be more like Japan. That is the takeaway from a Bloomberg column by the always-interesting Noah Smith. His is the latest article to look at Tokyo’s approach to housing for answers to the spiralling cost of homes in comparable Western Read More >
14th March 2018
Lord Willetts today gave a speech at the Resolution Foundation calling for wealth taxes to be imposed on the baby boomer generation in order to fund their health and social care in old age and to prevent the burden being placed on younger Read More >
20th February 2018
Fifty years have passed since Milton Friedman delivered his groundbreaking American Economic Association Presidential address on the role of monetary policy. Unfortunately, many of Friedman’s insights are neglected today. Friedman demolished Read More >
9th February 2018
Keeping your funds in cash is generally viewed as much safer than holding them in stocks. This is because, on any given day, the value of the US and UK capital stock – as measured by the NYSE and FTSE indices – can easily fluctuate by one or Read More >
17th January 2018
In 2005, futurist Ray Kurzweil shocked the world with his book, The Singularity is Near. He speculated that around the year 2045, the Singularity, which is to say a humanity which has merged with technology, will turn artificial intelligence (AI) Read More >
30th August 2017
Central banks do not set interest rates.
To be specific, central banks in large western democracies with open capital markets and flexible exchange rates do not set interest rates, other than for overnight money. That’s right! If Read More >
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