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In 1929, Ludwig von Mises rejected a job offer for a high position at the Austrian bank Kreditanstalt. He believed that a great crash was coming and didn’t want his name associated with it. Since then, economists of the Austrian school have successfully managed to avoid association with any economic crash. To prevent association with future crashes, Austrians should now warn about the bitcoin boom, which has reached new heights in 2021. It’s indeed impossible to deny the success of bitcoin... Read More >

Recent Articles:

It just isn’t possible to do away with boom and bust Mark Twain is alleged to have read a newspaper account of his own passing and declared, “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”. That story may well be apocryphal, but Read More >

We live in an era where central bankers have taken centre stage in economic policy. There has been a clear shift as elected politicians have stepped back and unelected technocrats have picked up many of the reins. Some of this is not a little Read More >

Destination shopping will return, says this writer. Having had so much change forced upon us by this cursed viral crisis, we can all be forgiven for despairing that things will never again ‘settle down’. And yet they will, Read More >

In 1862 we got the Gettysburg Address, in 1941 it was Roosevelt’s Day of Infamy and in 1983 it was Ronald Reagan’s Evil Empire speech. This year it appears we’ll have to settle for Greta Thunberg’s "Blah, blah, Read More >

Originally published May 2020. An exogenous crisis hit the world, followed by a stunningly fast disruption of the global economy. Political decisions led to the closing of business, to numerous bankruptcies, to ramped-up production in Read More >

These words are written soon after the end of the UK’s work protecting – what many claim was a ‘true’ job data distorting – furlough scheme. They come in the midst of a considerable spike in the price of gas and hikes across more Read More >

Originally published March 2021. Plus, reassessing the relationship between UK interest rates and REITs. This article was originally published in June 2019. The perceived wisdom has always been that reducing, and indeed low, UK interest Read More >

Originally published June 2021. As space requirements fall for offices and retail, residential will fill the gap. Much of the reflection on post-pandemic shifts in property has been focused on individual sectors, but how these interact Read More >

This morning has seen something of a different event, but it has given us an insight into the thoughts of the Bank of England. This is because QuickBooks arranged an 'Ask the Expert' session with Michael Saunders of the Bank of England on Read More >

That quote from a hit by Gwen Guthrie is rather echoing this morning as we look at another aspect of the housing crisis. I point out the song link partly because there was quite a miss last night on a reference to the film Escape from New York Read More >

The battle between inflation hawks and doves is heating up. The year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index is 5.4%, significantly above average. This figure, from the end of July, comes after several months of economy-wide price Read More >

Should we be worried? Two big takeover battles in the UK are a sign of the times: supermarket chain Wm Morrisons and respiratory medicines group Vectura are both the subject of bids in the billions of pounds by private Read More >

As agitation for Indyref2 grows, one of our favourite economists puts forward his view of what Scotland’s next move will be. Let me begin by making clear why I dismiss the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK in the foreseeable future. My Read More >

Cryptocurrency is something of a fairy tale, but the real story is one of central banks seeking financial repression by any means possible. Arguably, the best background reading for global finance over the past 30 years was written by the Read More >

To read The UK Economy – A picture of change, part one, visit Before the present crisis, the UK had scaled to its highest ever number employed, 33 million, and Read More >

The pandemic will have a long tail, resulting in a rollercoaster property cycle in the coming years. June 21st – hooray! We have a date for a return to normal (sort of). The pricing-in of some vaccine optimism in the financial markets in Read More >

The first in a three-part series examines how the country has been transformed (for the better) in the past few decades. The UK economy looks fundamentally different now from its image just 30 years ago. It is simply unrecognisable – and Read More >

Limitations to our flight movements due to the pandemic remain frustrating, but unrestricted personal air travel will have to resume. When it does, the eurozone’s tourist-hungry Club Med economies will have essentially lost two years of Read More >

This article was originally published in February 2021. Standing at close to £759bn, the ‘stock’ of UK state debt acquired by the Bank of England on behalf of the state is not merely a considerable number but, to many, a monetary Read More >

This article was originally published in November 2020. November 7th marked the 103rd anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution, where communist revolutionaries overthrew the czarist government of Russia, eventually leading to the establishment Read More >

As the pandemic is slowly brought under control, a changed world will emerge that offers new investment opportunities. Few people will be sorry to see the end of 2020, and many have subdued expectations for next year. I am forecasting Q4 Read More >

This article was originally published in December 2020. The benefits from adding real estate investments to a multi-asset portfolio have been well researched. Real estate has low correlation relative to other asset classes, high Sharpe Read More >

Only in the make-believe world of analytical models can negative nominal interest rates be argued to do any real good. Last October, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, ordered UK commercial banks to demonstrate their preparedness Read More >

Should economic freedom take a back seat to civil rights? Jack Ma found out the hard way that both are equally important. The Alibaba founder and Chinese billionaire has been missing for over two months now following his recent criticism of Read More >

The pandemic has created as many opportunities as it has removed, and there will be no lasting damage – not even for the young. At the outset of this crisis, there were widespread concerns that the UK residential market would suffer Read More >

Pornhub, the world’s largest aggregator of pornographic videos, has been cut off from accepting credit cards. The company is only accepting cryptocurrency for its premium service at present.  It happened quickly. On 4 December, New Read More >

This article was originally published in October 2020. As we adjust to what may be a permanent shift from 95% to 80% capacity in the economy, we face penalties in terms of price, choice and quality. Announcements of store closures and job Read More >

Biographers of John Maynard Keynes have a peculiar habit of treading very lightly around their subject matter’s involvement in the eugenics movement. The oversight is not for want of evidence. In one of his last public appearances before Read More >

This article was originally published in October 2020. A new book by Stephanie Kelton offers insights into an increasingly relevant monetary theory, but these are dangerous ideas. Like it or not, Stephanie Kelton is an economist whose Read More >

The covid-19 pandemic has afflicted India with its biggest economic shock since the oil crises of the 1970s. The Indian economy, among the world’s fastest-growing emerging markets four years ago, contracted by a ghastly 24% in Q2 2020 and Read More >

This article was originally published in autumn 2019. Of course they’re inherently illogical, but let’s unpack what they mean in practice for the wider investment market. How many economists does it take to screw in a lightbulb? Read More >

One of the loudest and most frequent defences of WFH (aka working from home) is that it is perfectly viable in this ultra tech-age. Perfectly viable that co-workers can connect without being practically conjoined in an office setting. Let me be Read More >

Like many of us, I had an iconic and charismatic high school teacher who left a lasting impression. He used to say something memorable about asking for forgiveness: “Apologise if you’re in the wrong,” he said, “but double down if Read More >

As the outline of a new property landscape appears through the settling dust, investment professionals can start to do their jobs again. When the UK moved into lockdown, inaction became the preferred strategy of many investors, and the Read More >

The global monetary and fiscal stimulus implemented since the coronavirus erupted has been sizable, and policy-makers have acted with unprecedented speed. While it is recognised that this stimulus was necessary, the resulting increases in Read More >

Assessing value is no easy task, even in normal times. But we believe that assessing the relative value of commercial property against a range of alternative asset classes, including government and corporate bonds, and equities, is a useful Read More >

Predictions for prolonged British misery are based on fears of a no-deal Brexit and a pandemic second spike – but both risks carry little economic downside. When any economy suffers significant job loss, three things need to follow to avoid Read More >

Floating on a sea of money, will asset prices eventually sink – or make landfall on the solid ground of economic recovery? Global equity markets have performed pretty well in the year to date, even as the world’s major economies are only Read More >

Asia Pacific’s real estate focused stocks outperformed in August, edging ahead of the wider market. This was led by the wider GPR/APREA Composite Listed Real Estate Index, which returned 5.8%, powered mainly by the Australian and Japanese Read More >