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22nd April 2024
From the beginning of November – when the market decided that the Fed was hinting at rate cuts in Q1 of this year until the turn of the year – the quoted sector rallied by an astonishing 23%. The buying frenzy was indiscriminate, with no asset exposure correlation. In fact, some of the best performing shares both in the UK and Europe were those with the highest degrees of leverage. Short positions hurriedly closed and some fundamental buying meant that REITs spent 10 months of the year... Read More >
Recent Articles:
15th April 2024
Washington, DC is going through its annual budget charade. The US Congress is no longer capable of approving individual budgets and appropriations. Instead, a handful of leaders make omnibus deals among themselves and demand the people’s Read More >
8th April 2024
From obscure 12th century statutes to amusing judicial wigs, there’s much to admire in the gradual development of Britain’s legal order. However, the outdated leasehold system which plagues more than 5m homes in England and Wales is an Read More >
25th March 2024
Before it dies, I want to come out in favour of the hyperloop project in Minnesota to create underground tubes in which people would travel in capsules propelled by electromagnetic force at speeds up to 700 mph. No seat belts, no use of carbon Read More >
18th March 2024
In 1988 Michael Sklarz and I published a paper called “It’s Time for Some Options in Real Estate.” In 1995 David Geltner and I suggested that we needed a fourth asset class, Housing Equity Investment Trusts (HEITs), whereby an owner could Read More >
11th March 2024
The eyes of the world may be on the US presidential election. But another, usually sleepy campaign is underway: European Parliament elections in June 2024. Most of the action takes place in the executive and bureaucracy (the European Read More >
4th March 2024
In 1604, the English judge Sir Edward Coke declared that “the house of everyone is to him as his Castle and Fortress.” The intervening years turned the saying to “and Englishman’s home is his castle.” With apologies to the Scots, Irish Read More >
26th February 2024
The world is in turmoil. The war in Ukraine grinds on, with persistent calls for the United States to continue supplying Ukraine’s war effort. China may be poised to invade Taiwan in the coming years and assert its ambitions throughout the Read More >
19th February 2024
Back in July, I was invited to give a keynote speech at an international conference we hosted in Cambridge. In it, I took the opportunity to look back at Cambridge economics a hundred years ago; 1920s Cambridge economics means Keynes, of course. Read More >
12th February 2024
The great debate continues over Flaco the eagle-owl spotted recently flying around our home on New York’s Upper West Side, a year after he got loose from the Central Park Zoo: should he continue to roam the city freely, feeding on rats, or Read More >
29th January 2024
One of the hardest tasks in education now is to encourage students to develop critical thinking skills when information sources have fragmented, and debate and argument seem to have degenerated into simply restating positions with increasing Read More >
22nd January 2024
The new year is a time for both reflection and anticipation. It seems to me it is one of the most important of years to do both thoroughly.
2023 is described by many of my friends and business associates as one of the hardest of their lives. Read More >
15th January 2024
There are a number of reasons for the current litany of gloom about China, but the actual state of the economy is way down the list. This is primarily because narrative and emotion dominate facts in the short- and medium-term. The narrative on Read More >
18th December 2023
It is one of the most “identified” structural failings of the UK economy. A shortcoming, we are told, that lies at the core of why the UK will see no growth next year, and indeed more generally, why the British economy is the basket case of Read More >
11th December 2023
The younger generations seem increasingly crazed. A worrying proportion of the young sympathises with those who launch terror attacks against Israel, supports the immediate elimination of fossil fuels or demands the wiping out of Read More >
4th December 2023
In recent years, there has been a significant push for diversity and inclusion in various industries. The real estate industry, like many others, has taken steps to ensure that it is representative of the diverse demographics in our society. Read More >
27th November 2023
On 10 March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank failed, triggering fears of a new financial crisis. Over the next three weeks, US bank share prices fell by 14% and regional banks fared even worse, at 33%. In short order, Signature Bank and First Republic Read More >
20th November 2023
This is a question we are often asked at The Proptech Connection (The PTC). The answer is simple, but also complex. Simply, it’s a catch all term that describes technology that impacts space. The complex answer is that its constantly changing, Read More >
13th November 2023
It’s hard not to be infected by the brisk back-to-school mood that arrives with autumn. The French have a word for this time of new notebooks, sharpened pencils and squeaky school shoes: La Rentrée. That’s exactly what it feels like; a Read More >
6th November 2023
"The nature of Monkey was... irrepressible!"
The Chinese Economy looks awful. I challenge readers to find anything positive written about it in recent weeks. A few years ago – in the wake of Economic crisis in the West, attracted by Read More >
30th October 2023
My bank – a global behemoth with Asian origins – refused to honour my transaction. This was despite multiple attempts, and an agent on the telephone telling me everything was okay at their end.
The six-hour round trip to view, test drive, Read More >
23rd October 2023
In the summer 2023 issue of The Property Chronicle, we discussed the gathering stranded asset storm in commercial real estate, with one factor being the impact of energy performance certificate (EPC) ratings on the UK’s commercial real estate Read More >
16th October 2023
Recent European valuations data from MSCI for Q2 confirmed that capital values are still falling, but at a slower pace than they were last winter. This raises the question as to whether we have reached a turning point in this downturn. Our view Read More >
9th October 2023
I enjoy reading good journalism, whether it chimes with my political view or not. Sometimes, however, I wonder whether I am reading something which is deliberately misleading – “we send the EU £350 million a week – let’s fund our NHS Read More >
2nd October 2023
A lousy summer, an unsatisfactory conclusion to The Ashes, for us, wrapped up warm for the first day of the football season, and a job following the quoted real estate sector. Happy? Hmm…
So, rates up means REITs down, but the volatility Read More >
25th September 2023
Summary of Yolande Barnes’s contribution to “Where Next for House Prices” (with some additions) at FT Weekend Festival, 2 September 2023.
Where will house prices be this time next year?
I think it’s inflation that’s going to Read More >
18th September 2023
The Housing Act of ‘80 isn’t something many are likely to be overly familiar with. Yet, throughout the ‘80s, it "acted" to polarise public opinion like few other policies; of which there were many riotously triggering ones.
The Act gave Read More >
11th September 2023
A recent article by Knight Frank titled "The Secret to a Happy Workforce: Unveiling the Most Valued Office Perks" delves into the enticing world of workplace benefits. From beanbag-filled lounges to gourmet cafeterias, the piece paints a picture Read More >
4th September 2023
One good reason to travel around America is to meet American people, all the more so if you’re one of them yourself. I went out West for ten days and rediscovered what I always knew, that our people don’t mind talking about themselves. You Read More >
22nd August 2023
In the ever-evolving landscape of modern corporate culture, there's a new demographic speaking out: young professionals. In the race to attract the best and brightest, companies across the globe have invested millions, if not billions, in flashy Read More >
14th August 2023
There are many reasons why one could try to argue that a decent recession is on the way in the US; the economic engine room of the world.
I, though, like many others, have been surprised at the resilience of the US consumer and the relative Read More >
7th August 2023
Moving out of an apartment, as I’ve been doing recently, convinces me at last to resign from American consumer culture and live with only bedding, one towel, two changes of clothing, a pair of shoes, and one suit to wear for shows and also to Read More >
31st July 2023
It’s all a matter of judgement…
It was predictable for those of us with a few grey hairs that the woke agenda would eventually be checked by a good old dose of common sense, but I will admit that it has taken longer than I had expected Read More >
24th July 2023
My immediate response to the news that Lazard, the boutique investment bank, is to cut 10% of its staff amid a “dealmaking chill,” is that they should cut 10% off the fees they charge to their clients instead. Actually, they should cut a lot Read More >
3rd July 2023
The average member of the RICS – the institution that regulates standards, values, and protocols across the profession – must be holding their heads in their hands right now. Has the leadership just shot itself in the foot again, or is it Read More >
19th June 2023
I was an infant when Allied forces crossed the Channel and landed at Normandy in 1944 and none of my uncles were there. The only D-Day vet I knew was my high school biology teacher Lyle Bradley who dove into a foxhole under enemy fire and two Read More >
12th June 2023
UK commercial real estate (CRE) valuations are languishing at post-COVID lows, amid fears the sector faces “banking covenants being breached” and struggles with regard to occupancy. In this short article, we draw upon new Toscafund research Read More >
5th June 2023
None can deny whose strong arms made the winning difference in World War II. The same fingerprints can be found on the remnants of the Berlin Wall, and on the Iron Curtain not merely thrown open but torn off its rails in so doing lightening up Read More >
30th May 2023
With promising companies either leaving London or deciding not to list here in the first place, this week’s reforms to the UK’s stock market regime could not come soon enough.
Despite intense government lobbying, Cambridge-based software Read More >
22nd May 2023
Pretty much every renter in Britain has a horrible landlord story. Whether it’s a mouldy bathroom, exaggerated damage costs after a tenancy, delayed repairs, surprise rent increases or shock evictions, there is no shortage of horror stories. Read More >
15th May 2023
I salute the Hollywood writers who went out on strike this past week but I can tell you that we essayists won’t be joining them. For one thing, the essay is deeply imbedded in our nation’s very identity (U.S.A.) but for another thing, a Read More >
9th May 2023
"The Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill" is making its way through the legislative process and is now in the House of Lords. As one would hope from one’s government, there is a lot of good stuff in there.
There is, however, hidden in its Read More >
1st May 2023
When you bang up your knee so it swells up like an elephant’s and it brings tears to your eyes to take a step, the orthopaedic guy gives you a knee brace to wear requiring four straps to be wrapped tight around the leg and hooked and held Read More >
26th April 2023
“Every once in a while a book lands on your desk that changes the way you perceive the world you live in, a book that fundamentally challenges your understanding of human history.” So began the blurb that came with this book. Aha! I thought. Read More >
17th April 2023
Price inflation is starting to fall in many countries but it still remains way above the typical 2% target of most major economies. In the UK, inflation has been above target since August 2021 and in double Read More >
6th April 2023
When you look at the body camera video of Nashville cops, guns drawn, dashing into the school, throwing doors open, shouting, “Shots fired, shots fired, move!” and a line of cops moving swiftly down the hall and up the stairs and shooting Read More >
3rd April 2023
I am an old Democrat who’s been traveling around doing shows in Republican towns in the Midwest and it’s making me a better person. I stand up on a theater stage and I hum a note and the audience hums it back and I sing “My country ’tis Read More >
27th March 2023
This short piece focuses on Charts 1 and 2. The first maps the path taken since 1970 by sterling, as measured by a trade-weighted index, this charted alongside UK Consumer Price Inflation (CPI). In the second, we see the pound’s eventful ebbs Read More >
21st March 2023
When gas prices rose 150 percent from June 2020 to June 2023, politicians and the media didn’t hesitate to blame corporate greed. The evidence they offered was two-fold: rising prices and rising profits.
Yet over the past six Read More >
23rd February 2023
The latest IPD Monthly Index shows UK commercial property capital values declined by 14.2% in the calendar year 2022. Income was something of a saviour of total return though. This was not a great result for the investors, but it is Read More >
16th February 2023
Time to buy some discounts to NAV, Blackstone cede 11% and UK planning paralysis
What on earth is happening to our planning system? Is it absent without leave? I know it’s a bit of an overstatement to say that everywhere I go someone Read More >
9th February 2023
Real estate is a relationship business. It is sometimes an ego business. And it is often an emotional business.
So making the case that data-driven analysis should drive investment decision-making can be difficult.
But in Read More >
2nd February 2023
The apartment across the hall from where we’re staying in Minneapolis is undergoing extensive renovation – walls being moved, floors torn up and every day last week the noise from there was seismic, volcanic, like they were throwing pickup Read More >
19th January 2023
The CIO of Odey Asset Management, shares his thoughts on recent events inthe UK economy.
There was a time when markets were in the ascendancy, when they ruled, rather than were ruled. One of the sadnesses for those of us who have been around Read More >
12th January 2023
I saw the phrase ‘friendship recession’ in a headline last week, which has a musical swing to it, but refers to growing social isolation, particularly among men, due to people working from home, avoiding crowded places, being reluctant Read More >
15th December 2022
My head is full of grizzly mania, the Russian bear is trapped in Ukraine's military bear trap and the black gold bears are laughing all the way to the bank as Brent tanks to $76 and West Texas settled at $71. Does this week define the new Read More >
10th November 2022
Most financial crises have plenty in common. They tend to start in the banking sector and involve excessive borrowing, together with an asset bubble, usually related to property.
The global crisis of 2008 was no different, with the asset Read More >
3rd November 2022
Speculation regarding how secure Vladimir Putin’s position is surfaces every few years, but has intensified since the invasion of Ukraine, particularly in light of Russia’s military failures in recent months. Many of these speculative Read More >
20th October 2022
It’s easy to believe that life on Earth is getting ever worse. The media constantly highlight one catastrophe after another and make terrifying predictions. With a torrent of doom and gloom about climate change and the environment, it’s Read More >
13th October 2022
People really dislike inflation. Today, with US annual inflation still above 8%, one in five Americans consider it the country’s biggest problem – spelling trouble for the Democrats at the November mid-terms.
Inflation is also the top Read More >
6th October 2022
Comparing farmland and property.
This commentary argues that farmland values may double over the next 10 years, while over the same 10 years residential and commercial property values are unlikely to increase.
What happens to Read More >
29th September 2022
Truss can afford to be unpopular – for now.
'Consensus' was a swear word for Margaret Thatcher. She once declared:
“To me consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies in search of Read More >
22nd September 2022
As of September 6th, the UK has a new prime minister, in Liz Truss, and a new chancellor in Kwasi Kwarteng. To say they face immense challenges is no exaggeration. Then again, challenges abound across Europe, MENA and no less in the United Read More >
15th September 2022
Now, whatever one may believe concerning his past attempts to 'subvert parliamentary elections', it can be assured that Putin has affected how the UK next go to the polls. For, by invading Ukraine, Putin has had an impact on the UK’s political Read More >
8th September 2022
The powerful and prestigious Federal Reserve is having a tough year in 2022 in at least three ways:
It has failed with inflation forecasting and performance;It has giant mark-to-market losses in its own investments and looming operating Read More >
1st September 2022
Why the housing market is collapsing – and the risks to the wider economy.
China has been trimming interest rates recently – in contrast to other major economies – as it tries to stem the economic effects of its zero-COVID Read More >
25th August 2022
Disappointing GDP growth and high inflation have many commentators talking about stagflation. Advanced estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis suggest real GDP fell for a second straight quarter in 2022. At the same time, the Consumer Read More >
18th August 2022
Keen sport watchers will have witnessed the use of ‘head-fakes’ to deceive an unsuspecting opponent. Indeed, the phrase is used generally to describe not only using a fake move with one’s head to wrong-foot opponents, but legs, arms and Read More >
11th August 2022
The Bank of England (BoE) projects the UK will 'enter recession from Q4'. I will only accept we are heading into recession if the OBR says so when it next updates us in October.
Only those close to 60 will painfully know what a real Read More >
4th August 2022
We’re in the middle of a remote working revolution. In the UK, though remote working was slowly growing before the pandemic, in 2020 the number of people working from home doubled.
While this rapid rise can be explained by COVID Read More >
21st July 2022
A look at how accurate predictions proved to be.
If my thought process at the beginning of the year was ‘Buy the Discounts’, the corollary was to ‘Sell the Premiums’. Doing the latter would have saved you a lot of money, doing the Read More >
14th July 2022
Our reaction upon hearing the news of the shooting of former prime minister Shinzo Abe was one of shock and incredulity in equal measure. What followed was a frenzy of trying to piece news reports and gossip together to make sense of events, Read More >
7th July 2022
Last week (June 21), in its biannual circus, New York City housing regulators once again decided how much landlords will be able to raise rents. Despite inflation raging at a 40-year high of 8.6%, they decided on an increase of 3.25%. In Read More >
30th June 2022
Europe is highly vulnerable to Putin's gas blackmail.
European leaders believe they are part of the rich world, with the power to determine their future. After they return from their sacrosanct holidays in late August, they may begin to Read More >
23rd June 2022
Time and again during the Congressional hearings on the January 6 attack on the Capitol, the legislators and witnesses struggled to understand how Donald Trump could just flat-out deny he had lost the 2020 election. Didn’t matter what any Read More >
16th June 2022
Western sanctions are partly to blame.
In the days after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the west imposed sanctions, the rouble collapsed. The number of roubles to one US dollar quickly fell from about 78 to 138 – a huge move Read More >
9th June 2022
Lessons learnt by a new boy.
In 2021 some distinguished real estate figures, and me, started an entity to help the UK’s most disadvantaged students and, specifically, to introduce them to the huge range of jobs available in real estate and Read More >
26th May 2022
It won’t control interest rates and inequality will widen.
The UK local elections in May saw gains for nationalists in Scotland and Northern Ireland, raising the prospect of increased debates over the future make-up of the country. In Read More >
19th May 2022
Since first espousing it, I have not wavered in my view of the crypto marché. To wit, it is a fiction that ill inevitably be exposed. Now, while the crashing down of the crypto fiction will shock many, it should not come as a surprise at all. Read More >
12th May 2022
President Putin and his security institutions are no longer a united front.
Russia’s army is deeply unhappy at the new and curtailed strategy Putin has ordered them to adopt in Ukraine, abandoning the big goal of capturing Kyiv for a Read More >
5th May 2022
If certain criteria are met, this writer thinks so.
For those who are persuaded that we are still in the early stages of an inflationary resurgence, rather than the mature phase of an inflation spike, the search continues for protective Read More >
21st April 2022
...and from place to place.
Part one of a three-part mini-series written by economist Savvas Savouri.
If I were seeking an analogy for how best to forecast what awaits the UK economy, it would be meteorological. To wit, a weather forecast Read More >
7th April 2022
Tony Soprano, the eponymous fictional antihero of HBO’s iconic series about organised crime syndicates in northern New Jersey, tends to evoke images of cigars, strip clubs and guys getting their teeth bashed in or even 'whacked', because they Read More >
31st March 2022
A brief history of boycotts.
From government bans to customers pouring it in gutters by the gallon, Americans are saying “nyet” to Russian vodka, expressing their anger over the Kremlin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
Politicians Read More >
24th March 2022
How Russia’s economy will struggle to pay the price of invading Ukraine.
The invasion of Ukraine has placed Russia on the verge of bankruptcy. Interest rates have doubled, the stock market has closed and the rouble has fallen to Read More >
10th March 2022
As we’ve seen in previous articles, liquidity is ‘good’ only if your need for it isn’t shared by most other market participants at the same time. If everyone else wants to liquidate at the same time you do, liquidity can be a very bad Read More >
24th February 2022
Nick Clegg is doing the same useful job for Mark Zuckerberg as he did for David Cameron’s Tories.
In what many saw as a surprise move, Meta has promoted former UK Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg to its President of Global Read More >
17th February 2022
Here’s who’s better at making money in financial markets.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has now closely matched or even surpassed humans in what were previously considered unattainable areas. These include chess, arcade Read More >
10th February 2022
Inflation is skyrocketing in practically the entire world. Central banks are getting scared and beginning to announce the end of expansionary measures, also known as tapering.
Why do central banks find themselves in a dilemma? Why has Read More >
3rd February 2022
Inflation in the United States was over 7% in 2021. This is dramatically higher than just a couple of years ago when it was less than 2% per year.
Why did it go up? The most obvious answer – and the one consistent with an extraordinarily Read More >
27th January 2022
Radical overhaul of construction industry needed if UK to have any chance, according to new research.
As I entered the construction site in England a decade ago, I was filled with excitement. This was a new state-of-the-art housing Read More >
20th January 2022
When I was on honeymoon in Venice, I spotted a pair of Chinese dragons, one chewing a toenail and the other picking its nose. Smart shop, Grand Canal – my wife, Jane, and I set an upper limit on what we’d pay. We later walked out with the Read More >
13th January 2022
David Goldman offers an interesting take on the competition between the United States and China for global influence in his latest book, You Will Be Assimilated: China’s Plan to Sino-form the World. He focuses on technology and points Read More >
9th December 2021
The news on 2 December will have brought a beaming smile to the person responsible for the morning meeting at the Bank of England. They will have been able to leave all the house copies of the Financial Times open at this page.
UK household Read More >
2nd December 2021
China’s dominance in manufacturing has made it the factory of the world. The subsequent economic growth enriched an ever-expanding middle class, and the country’s retail industry has quickly adapted to supply a growing appetite for Read More >
25th November 2021
The investment drama of a-weighting currency change.
I was presented very recently with a piece of investment bank ‘research’ that made a bold change in recommendation. The piece heralded the first time in five years that the particular Read More >
18th November 2021
Former president Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit to block release of speech drafts, call logs and handwritten notes regarding the 6 January Capitol Clash. Trump is seeking to prohibit the National Archives from delivering those records to a Read More >
11th November 2021
Ms Shrina Kurani,
On 30 October I received from you a blast email requesting that I contribute to your political campaign. For reasons explained below, I’ll not do so. (The one and only time that I contributed money to a candidate for Read More >
4th November 2021
Our research gives a clue.
Flick through a news feed on your phone and you are likely to scroll across an article discussing the heated rivalries of the new space race. Forget the geopolitical struggles of a cold war. This Read More >
28th October 2021
Spoiler: No, they’re not. However much we love our homes and the dollar figures that realtors assign to them, those values are not ours until the day we sell.
But let’s start with the pizzas.
Say you run a pizzeria in Read More >
21st October 2021
We live in an era where central bankers have taken centre stage in economic policy. There has been a clear shift as elected politicians have stepped back and unelected technocrats have picked up many of the reins. Some of this is not a little Read More >
7th October 2021
Various aspects of cryptocurrency use have been banned in China numerous times over the better part of the past decade. The most stringent barriers yet, though, were announced on Friday, 24 September. In a series of statements, Chinese economic Read More >
23rd September 2021
“No wonder people f—–g hate landlords.” That was what comedian Andy Richter tweeted (since deleted). What caused that reaction? A landlord wanted six month's advance rent on an apartment he was seeking for his son. However, that Read More >
9th September 2021
In July, CNN reported that the Chinese hosted a formal Taliban envoy in Tianjin, demonstrating the CCP’s intentions to pursue greater engagement with the region on its western border. The move should send a signal to the United States that Read More >
2nd September 2021
It’s time we did it again.
There has been much talk about a potential inflation surge as countries lift pandemic restrictions and seek to resume normal economic activity. In recent months, US prices have risen more than 5% Read More >
26th August 2021
In mid-April 2021, President Biden declared an imminent and rapid withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan based upon a timeline handed down from the previous administration. Not surprisingly, this announcement prompted advances Read More >
19th August 2021
Even though air travel is in doubt, he might yet pull it off.
Harvard Business School strategy guru, Professor Michael Porter, famously described the airline industry as “one of the least profitable industries known to Read More >
12th August 2021
Summertime is the season of the blockbuster movie. And what could go better with a fast-paced action flick than a giant tub of buttered popcorn?
People everywhere are starting to return to pre-lockdown lives, which includes heading out to the Read More >
29th July 2021
How Japan’s moment of glory has become a millstone for the economy.
“Japan is back!” declared Shinzo Abe, the then Japanese prime minister, after he made a surprise appearance dressed as Super Mario at the closing ceremony of the Read More >
15th July 2021
If you are reading this, congratulations on surviving the latest Independence Day festivities, which our society somewhat arbitrarily celebrates on 4 July. Independence Day 2026 will mark the nation’s 250th 'birthday', but Americans that day Read More >
8th July 2021
Monetary policy isn’t about interest rates. It’s about money. Specifically, it’s about the supply of money relative to the demand to hold it. But you wouldn’t know that from financial journalists’ constant focus on interest rates. Read More >
1st July 2021
Leigh Perkins died last month. Most reading this likely weren’t aware of his passing or who he was for that matter. But his story has broad relevance in consideration of the times in which we live.
About Perkins, his New York Read More >
24th June 2021
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week to decide the stance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. In its official statement, the committee chose to maintain its effective federal funds rate target in the range of zero Read More >
17th June 2021
Housing is a topic that gets everyone riled up. Where you live is a sign of success, socially and financially; we take pride in what our houses are like and certainly their location. If you got in on the booming housing market at almost any time Read More >
10th June 2021
Suppose you lent someone $100 and when they paid you back they only handed you, say, $99 or $80. Would you consider the borrower to have kept his promise and contractual obligation? Or would you think that he had cheated you out of a part of the Read More >
3rd June 2021
As a once-devout environmentalist, I have a T-shirt with a slogan heavily used by activists. Often credited to the Abenaki Alanis Obomsawin, it speaks directly to our modernity-hating followers in the Church of Climate:
When the last Read More >
24th May 2021
I’m a heretic in a world where environmentalism is a leading religion. I think it’s OK to use a lot of paper and I generally ignore the little exhortation at the bottom of so many emails saying, ‘Think about the environment before printing Read More >
10th May 2021
President Joe Biden delivered a speech to a Joint Session of Congress on 28 April 2021, where he made the following remark that should be seen as a red flag:
“America is moving – moving forward – but we can’t stop now. We’re in Read More >
26th April 2021
Journalism is hard. To portray the world accurately to a lay audience without delving into the complexities and nuances of the universe we inhabit, writers must always simplify, explain, and make difficult content relatable for their readers. Read More >
19th April 2021
In a market economy, consumers vote with their dollars. The survival and growth of a business depends pivotally upon how effectively it convinces customers to buy its products over those of its competitors. But recently, consumers seem to expect Read More >
13th April 2021
The state of New York is an economic disaster area.
New York is ranked #50 in the Economic Freedom of North America.New York is ranked #48 in the State Business Tax Climate Index.New York is ranked Read More >
7th April 2021
The late Everett Dirksen, a long-serving Minority Leader of the Republicans in the US Senate, is famously quoted as saying a billion here, a billion there, and soon we’re talking real money. That was back in 1969. At the time, a billion Read More >
31st March 2021
An event in 1989 shook the world and radically changed how critical institutions operated. No, I’m not talking about the fall of communism and the following disintegration of the Soviet bloc, but of an obscure change of public policy in a land Read More >
22nd March 2021
Nicholas Kristof is elated. Of course, there lies the problem with elation found in the overly emotional. It’s not always grounded in reality.
To see why, consider what has the New York Times columnist overjoyed. It’s the $1.9tn Read More >
15th March 2021
“We don’t know what we don’t know,” as Donald Rumsfeld once said when asked whether intelligence gathered had been shared adequately across the US intelligence community. Applied to the economies of Africa, the meaning goes even deeper, Read More >
10th March 2021
With its resurrection following the Second World War and the unification of East and West, Germany has had a remarkable journey over the past 75 years. In particular its stable and reliable public service has been a model for others. This has Read More >
1st March 2021
For decades, those of us sceptical of our central banks’ monetary experiments have tried to punish them for their excesses – rein them in, have them follow a stated rule, or at least provide a way for us critics to opt out of their system. Read More >
16th February 2021
Recently I wrote part 1 of this article in the hope that with the coming of a new presidential administration we can start to think rationally about dealing with what is a tricky adversary. Tricky because it is clear that China is an existential Read More >
9th February 2021
US-China relations have an incredibly complicated history that dates back many years to when the United States first interacted with imperial China. There have been some periods of mutual benefit and trade. There have also been numerous armed Read More >
25th January 2021
I read with interest the recent piece in the Property Chronicle entitled “Universal Basic Income Decimates Big Cities”. The thought of UBI as a modern-day Godzilla stomping across our city landscapes decimating all in his path is one that I Read More >
20th January 2021
The research department behind this piece is run by Steen Jacobsen. A million years ago I worked with Steen Jacobsen on the trading floor of a large US investment bank. Steen was then, and still is, a brilliant, polemic mind. For 30+ years he Read More >
17th December 2020
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
24th November 2020
Two of our top contributors, Bill Blain and Ethan Yang, argue it out over bitcoin. Is it no more than imaginary money we'd be foolish to trust, or could it be a medium of growing substance that at the very least is telling us something Read More >
16th November 2020
Forget the doomsayers: we are on the verge of a golden age.
Former US vice-president Dan Quayle once said: “The future will be better tomorrow.” Right now, I’m willing to risk the ridicule of using this statement. Although it might not Read More >
9th November 2020
On the ghoulishly appropriate date of 31 October – Halloween – Boris Johnson announced new lockdown measures. “These measures above all will be time-limited,” the prime minister assured the people. “They will end on Wednesday 2 Read More >
27th October 2020
Early in the pandemic I advised readers to zone out, take a break, and read fiction and other works of art that have stood the test of time. There’s only so much crazy we can deal with and there’s only so much mental benefits to be had from Read More >
19th October 2020
The morning after Trump was elected, people in my university class were crying.
Fair enough, you think: you’ve heard about the emotional fragility of today’s youth, and perhaps you’ve read Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt’s Read More >
12th October 2020
On 12 October 1864, Chief Justice Roger Taney, author of the Dred Scott decision, passed away. Abraham Lincoln (finally!) had the opportunity to replace that man. There was never a doubt that Lincoln would nominate a successor. On the other Read More >
30th September 2020
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker will reflect on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Read More >
21st September 2020
The late Anwar Sadat, when president of Egypt, called 1973 his autumn of destiny. I call 2020 my autumn of destiny because four of the world’s top software/fintech will go public in IPOs in Hong Kong or New York. Each of these IPOs will be Read More >
8th September 2020
Money is an indispensable part of modern economic activity. It was not always so: barter, where goods trade directly for other goods, was the norm for most of human history. But the rise of money as an economic institution greatly increased Read More >
1st September 2020
City centres and suburbs have been subject to both centripetal and centrifugal forces in modern times. During the first four decades after World War II, rapidly growing middle-class incomes in the Western world translated into expanding city Read More >
25th August 2020
Inflation came in much stronger than economists anticipated across the major western economies in July, highlighting that the effects of the pandemic are not purely deflationary. In the UK, CPI inflation jumped up from +0.6% in June to +1.0% in Read More >
10th August 2020
Price discovery in the private real estate market is always a challenge when there is a sudden change in the market as we have now with COVID-19. As happened during past recessions, the number of transactions grinds almost to a halt Read More >
3rd August 2020
There is something slightly soul-crushing about the news that the Government is mulling a new digital sales tax to ‘save the high street’.
It isn’t just the prospect of ministers raising the cost of living for online shoppers at a Read More >
27th July 2020
From the beginning of this virus, political elites have used the language of war. The invisible enemy would be contained, suppressed, and beaten into submission. Then….it would go away.
The tactics would be travel bans, shutdowns, Read More >
20th July 2020
THE IMPACT of the coronavirus crisis on London is becoming clear to see. Yesterday the Evening Standard laid bare the scale of the economic devastation to the British capital. Let’s take the headline numbers: “50,000 West End Read More >
13th July 2020
Many millions of people have spent the last four months in sadness and depression. It’s hard to watch the world shattered by the bad behavior of governments – and to see too many among us cheer the destruction – and not feel a sense of Read More >
30th June 2020
In over 30 years of involvement in US real estate, I have never encountered a dilemma in institutional office investment similar to what we are experiencing today. About half of my peers at Barings, and around the industry, are expecting a Read More >
22nd June 2020
Assuming the U.S. elections still happen in November 2020– how might that affect the U.S. economy and investment returns going forward?
While no one can yet predict the outcome of the November election – it may be instructive Read More >
10th June 2020
Netflix has added twice as many new subscribers as it expected during lockdown. I am one of them, signing up to watch “The Last Dance”, a documentary based on Michael Jordan’s final season with the Chicago Bulls.
I loved the series, Read More >
26th May 2020
When your ideology states that climate change is the most important thing facing the world and some pesky pandemic has the poor judgement to interrupt The Cause, you need to act fast. There must be something that connects the pandemic back to my Read More >
20th May 2020
The spread of coronavirus has required us all to change our behaviour. One of the most significant shifts as far as property is concerned is the abrupt switch to home working by most office employees. The majority have found this a smooth, Read More >
13th May 2020
Balance sheets show the trade-off between resilience and optimisation
% of companies with net cash
Source: CLSA, Factset as at 21 April 2020
As we highlighted last month, coronavirus is especially dangerous for patients with Read More >
5th May 2020
We are starting to appreciate some of the damage that the Covid-19 crisis is doing to the economy but in the western world the first warning lights came when stock markets lurched downwards in late February. In the past 6 weeks There has been Read More >
27th April 2020
For most of human history matters of life and death lay almost entirely outside the material world. Saving a life at any cost feels to most of us like a moral imperative, but the astonishing leaps forward in science and technology that define Read More >
20th April 2020
In engineering, noise is a disturbance around a signal and engineers have become good at extracting signals from the noise. In investing, noise comes in many forms and actions are determined by noise, signals or a combination of Read More >
17th April 2020
In this article I look at the S&P 500’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, the impact on CAPE valuations and what that means for the index’s expected ten-year returns.
The world is in the grip of a rapidly expanding pandemic Read More >
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