Head Of Research
Our Heads of Research look up from their data and shed light on the direct property investment universe
Latest Article
8th April 2024
AI is transforming the working life of real estate professionals. We are all going to have to rethink and relearn our jobs.
Emerging academic research supports what many of us are finding out for ourselves; effectively utilizing AI allows people to do their work better and faster. Whether undertaking market analysis, building discounted cash flows, compiling fund reports, or writing thought pieces, early adopters are achieving significant efficiency gains.
Once these efficiencies emerge, what... Read More >
Recent Articles:
12th February 2024
On 30 November 2022, the world was introduced to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) AI, initially intended as a “research preview” to seek feedback from the public. What ensued was viral uptake and commentary around the Read More >
12th February 2024
If you are a real estate researcher working in the industry for several years, you may wonder how to take your career to the next level.
How can you position yourself to go beyond presenting what data shows to communicating what it Read More >
20th November 2023
This article is about a Premier League football game for the ages, the strange case of an unconventional failure it contained, and the lessons it offers for real estate investment managers.
But first, a quote about lemmings.
Warren Buffet Read More >
23rd October 2023
In the summer 2023 issue of The Property Chronicle, we discussed the gathering stranded asset storm in commercial real estate, with one factor being the impact of energy performance certificate (EPC) ratings on the UK’s commercial real estate Read More >
16th October 2023
Recent European valuations data from MSCI for Q2 confirmed that capital values are still falling, but at a slower pace than they were last winter. This raises the question as to whether we have reached a turning point in this downturn. Our view Read More >
18th September 2023
Originally published May 2023.
Innovations in fractional ownership and use of space
Fractionalisation means many things to many people. Shares in REITs, syndicates, tenants-in-common, even land subdivision and strata title are all Read More >
18th September 2023
Originally published May 2023.
H2 2023
At the time of writing (March 20th 2023) the news is dominated by the recent collapse or rescue of a number of banks. It remains to be seen how this story will develop. However, initial signs are that Read More >
18th September 2023
Originally published May 2023.
Many use experience and expertise interchangeably, but they are different. While experience comes from exposure to a particular field, expertise develops when that experience is refined, codified, and Read More >
12th August 2023
Originally published May 2023.
Do not write off the office
You may be forgiven for thinking that some people have forgotten how to wear trousers. Headline after headline for the past three years declaring that working life is now just one Read More >
12th August 2023
Originally published April 2023.
In one of financial history's key observations, Howard Marks warns, "we must never forget about the inevitability of cycles. Ignoring cycles and extrapolating trends is one of the most dangerous things an Read More >
12th August 2023
Originally published February 2021.
For investors, the recent decline in retail property performance might suggest opportunity for acquiring property at distressed pricing. The challenge for such investors is to identify discounts associated Read More >
7th August 2023
The adaptation to hybrid work continues to shape the modern workplace. Business leaders often hope their teams will spend more time in the office. But they may need to fully comprehend the significance of status-signalling and status-seeking Read More >
6th August 2023
And where PRS and PBSA are.
Originally published January 2022.
Across Europe, residential property is typically an emerging institutional asset class. Although at the national level, as is the case with many things in the ‘old world’, Read More >
6th August 2023
Originally published December 2022.
Investors should be concerned about socio-political development in China as it has profound economic and geopolitical implications that will reverberate around the world. The acts of public defiance in Read More >
6th August 2023
Originally published October 2022.
How it could elevate role of Vietnam and robotics in global supply chain
China’s population reached 1.45 billion in 2022 and is forecast to plateau around these levels early next decade, according to Read More >
31st July 2023
In the spring 2023 issue of the Property Chronicle, “stranded asset” was playfully cited as real estate’s phrase of the year. We tend to agree. Not only is commercial real estate (CRE) facing a once-in-a-generation disruption at the hands Read More >
24th July 2023
Growing interest in a blue ocean of opportunities in the luxury ryokan segment.
Ryokan is a type of accommodation considered to be unique to Japan, with many designed, constructed, and equipped in a typically traditional Japanese style. The Read More >
6th July 2023
My wife and I went pillow shopping on Oxford Street over the weekend – doing our bit for brick-and-mortar retail (you’re welcome, kind reader). On the way home, we were switching from London’s Elizabeth Line to the Overground when, to our Read More >
19th June 2023
How we think about the past influences how we think about the future, including what lies ahead for real estate. With many medium and long-term trends at play, not the least the curveballs thrown by the last pandemic, investors must be agile and Read More >
26th April 2023
Geoff Colvin wrote “The Upside of the Downturn” in the depths of the Global Financial Crisis. Few people were writing optimistic business books in 2009, so this one stands out.
Colvin presents that downturn as “The Greatest Read More >
27th March 2023
Global credit standards are set to tighten further in response to the recent bank funding turmoil, as suggested by movements in bank share prices and financial conditions during the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse and Credit Read More >
21st March 2023
Though a correction in values is firmly underway for European commercial real estate markets, we believe the worst is yet to come. This also means the best buying opportunities are not just around the corner. The gradual ramping up of Read More >
21st March 2023
Falling property prices and mortgage approvals since last autumn are the start of a sustained correction in the housing market, in our view. An average of the Nationwide and Halifax measures showed prices in January down 3.5% from last summer's Read More >
9th February 2023
Real estate is a relationship business. It is sometimes an ego business. And it is often an emotional business.
So making the case that data-driven analysis should drive investment decision-making can be difficult.
But in Read More >
6th December 2022
We are now a year on from the first central banks shifting into tightening mode and raising policy rates to bring inflation back under control. This central bank tightening trend broadened and accelerated in spring 2022 in response to the Read More >
24th November 2022
Originally published June 2022.
(Even though it might eventually cease to exist.)
Japan's death rate exceeds its birth rate, prompting speculation that the country could eventually cease to exist if nothing is done to change this. In Read More >
23rd November 2022
Originally published 16 March 2021.
Being a child in the 1960s was Utterly Brilliant. It was all so exciting – because we all knew we were going to space. The theme music from “Apollo” still resonates. Late at night peering at the Moon, Read More >
22nd November 2022
For a few dark days in summer 2022, England’s new Environmental Land Management scheme (ELMs) looked like it might be a casualty of Liz Truss’s bonfire. A coalition of farming unions and environmental NGOs alike jumped to its Read More >
21st September 2022
A stable market is at the root of its appeal.
Originally published September 2021.
Japan’s relative stability and favourable funding conditions continue to attract international capital. This trend is even more apparent in the increasing Read More >
20th September 2022
Why timber buildings may be key in limiting climate change.
Originally published September 2021.
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report makes for grim reading. It finds that climate change is here, it is Read More >
24th May 2022
Originally published October 2018.
The population of our big cities is projected to increase significantly by 2040. But physical growth is constrained by green belt, and these boundaries are unlikely to change significantly by 2040, given Read More >
9th May 2022
2021 was a year fraught with challenges, ranging from the emergence of new Covid-19 variants to regulatory pressure on China's property developers. Asia Pacific (APAC) saw an economic recovery despite these downside risks. Preliminary data from Read More >
25th April 2022
…and we simply don’t care enough.
Originally published October 2021.
The publication of the 3,949 page Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Report in early August elicited many different comments from governments, the media Read More >
9th March 2022
Following an unprecedented crisis due to Covid, Italy became Europe’s largest beneficiary of the EU’s €750bn recovery plan designed to “emerge stronger from the pandemic, transform economies and create opportunities and jobs.” In Read More >
10th February 2022
Asia Pacific now accounts for 35% of global GDP – exceeding the share of US and Europe – and in its aspirations has lifted millions out of poverty, but it's also responsible for about 80% of the world's coal consumption and up to 60% of CO2 Read More >
9th December 2021
The student housing market
Global demand for tertiary education has been on a rising trend, underpinned by a need for more skilled labour to support growing economies and socio-demographic trends of an increasing university-aged population Read More >
7th December 2021
It always comes back to supply and demand.
Inflation in small doses can stimulate property markets, diverting investor demand out of fixed income, but harmful should it lead to rate hikes.
Property offers long-term core investors Read More >
2nd November 2021
Singapore’s GDP growth is expected to reach 6-7% in 2021 and return to pre-Covid levels. The country’s strong economic performance was underpinned by the manufacturing sector, which expanded 17.7% y-o-y in Q2 2021. Amid strong economic Read More >
14th October 2021
A Property Chronicle regional series.
The Northeastern US is the most densely populated region of the country, with more than 30 million people living in the roughly 250-mile expanse of near-continuous urbanisation that stretches from Read More >
7th October 2021
…and we simply don’t care enough.
The publication of the 3,949 page Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Report in early August elicited many different comments from governments, the media and individuals around the world. This Read More >
5th October 2021
Falling below the red lines.
Evergrande, the most indebted real estate company globally, faces mounting bankruptcy risks as the company has defaulted on payments and struggles to meet its financial liabilities of over Read More >
2nd August 2021
Covid 19’s impact on the Asia Pacific office market has been that buoyant demand leading into the pandemic was quickly stymied as corporate occupiers sought to limit cost exposures and assess their real estate needs. In line with this, vacancy Read More >
26th May 2021
Originally published in February 2021.
The pandemic has been with us for over a year, infecting more than 100 million people. Although vaccinations have begun around the world, the damage to the global economy is done. According to the Read More >
20th April 2021
Some of you may remember Steven Bradbury, the Australian short-track speed skater, in the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. The unlikely finalist – he’d snuck through the semi-final after the defending champion fell three bends Read More >
3rd February 2021
Commercial real estate is priced to produce superior risk-adjusted returns compared with investments in both fixed income and public equities in coming years. This article will present two different frameworks to assess and validate this Read More >
25th January 2021
I read with interest the recent piece in the Property Chronicle entitled “Universal Basic Income Decimates Big Cities”. The thought of UBI as a modern-day Godzilla stomping across our city landscapes decimating all in his path is one that I Read More >
20th January 2021
The research department behind this piece is run by Steen Jacobsen. A million years ago I worked with Steen Jacobsen on the trading floor of a large US investment bank. Steen was then, and still is, a brilliant, polemic mind. For 30+ years he Read More >
2nd December 2020
Historically, political party control of the US government has not had much bearing on investment performance of commercial real estate. However, NCREIF data (since its 1978 inception) shows that Democratic administrations produced somewhat Read More >
19th October 2020
US home sales are soaring, and even renters now favour suburban units with ample space for home-working. Should urban landlords be worried?
A growing trend in the US housing market is the search for more space, light and air. It is evidenced Read More >
14th May 2020
(Article originally published Summer 2018)
Why agility is key for investors in dealing with new uncertainties
Seattle is the only market I’ve ever seen advance from secondary to primary market status. There are a few other secondary Read More >
25th April 2019
Some managers of physical stores are getting paid for online sales too – and landlords want a slice of the action
While in Downtown Los Angeles a few weeks ago, I saw a large sign – like an oasis in the desert – for Dunkin’ Donuts Read More >
17th January 2019
This morning’s report from the Resolution Foundation on the employment surge since the financial crisis is a healthy rejoinder to those who are pessimistic about the state of the British economy.
The Conservatives make great play of their Read More >
25th October 2018
Business parks have come a long way since the creation of the B1 office use class in 1987 (Class 4 in Scotland) which allowed office, industrial and research and development premises to shift between uses more freely than ever before, bringing Read More >
22nd October 2018
‘High rents and prices’, ‘foul air’, ‘excessive hours’, ‘closing out of nature’. These phrases might well define some of the urban issues of today, but they were, in fact, written in 1898 by the urban planner Ebenezer Howard to Read More >
5th September 2018
The matter of succession planning is something that gets a lot of focus from family businesses, and for good reason – it is one of the hardest things for both the business and the family to go through.
To give some context, people often Read More >
The Wall of Equity ‘WACCs’ Cap Rates Perhaps it’s time for us to stop relying on conventional wisdom
16th August 2018
Higher Interest Rates + Late Cycle = Lower Cap Rates. Huh? For the 22+ years I’ve been in this business, investors have relied on the relationship between cap rates and interest rates. But perhaps it’s time for us to stop relying on Read More >
15th May 2018
Those of you that have invested in the equity markets might remember the late Richard Crossley. Prior to his untimely death almost seven years ago, Richard was an “old school” technical analyst; always at his desk by 6.30am, he spent the Read More >
26th February 2018
Seattle is the only market I’ve ever seen advance from secondary to primary market status. There are a few other secondary cities that are nipping at its heels, led by Austin, Denver and Nashville in the U.S., and Sao Paolo, Brazil and Read More >
18th January 2018
“Liberty, freedom, justice. Now things have changed. Now everything comes to us on a platter. Man’s got nothing left to fight for.” — Logan’s Run
In the classic 1967 novel Logan’s Run the world of 2116 is an idyllic place where Read More >
11th December 2017
I am a big infrastructure guy. Everywhere I go, I tell local investors that their city’s growth potential is limited unless it has good transportation infrastructure (roads, airports and mass transit). Based on my experience, 'old school' Read More >
8th June 2017
With yet another general election upon us it seems like a good time to look back and see which government has presided over the best returns for homeowners during the past forty years or so. The starting point is a good one, coming just after the Read More >
9th May 2017
The other day I met an intelligent and successful property developer (not always the same), who told me that back in 1997 he had sold a business and used the proceeds to move into buy to lets. He explained that he had built up a geographically Read More >
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