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Unstructured data is your friend
30th March 2020
Data is either structured or unstructured. Structured data is neatly arranged in rows and columns, like a spreadsheet. Unstructured data is messy and disorganised. It shambles towards us as PDFs, Word documents, presentations, open-ended survey responses, webpages, blog posts, social media sites, audio files, images and emails.
Both types of data can support decision-making. For example, the free-form responses in a tenant survey enrich the data gathered from structured questions, and... Read More >
Recent Articles:
Heard on the road: office pricing, retail gossip and Belgium (not just for the beer) 27th March 2020
What do investors want right now? What are their preferred opportunities, and what do you need to know about them? This series sums up what one investment adviser has gathered from roadshows, conferences and meetings across Europe.
Heard in Read More >
Coronavirus is a one-off opportunity for the EU – can they take it? 26th March 2020
In terms of my political risk career, betting against Europe rising to superpower status—as many left-leaning commentators blithely predicated in the early 2000s—has, to put it mildly, not hurt me any.
This is not due to some hateful, Read More >
Pause for breath 26th March 2020
Jo Welman’s thoughts about the macro investment outlook communicated to his investment clients:
At the close of business last night the FTSE 100 had fallen 43% in 2020 and the FTSE 250 which includes medium sized companies had fallen even Read More >
Retail property – the next big funding gap? 25th March 2020
In 2009 the GFC, which was responsible for severe asset value losses, resulted in a large funding gap between the debt position and the asset value. As this was essentially negative equity, fund managers were often struggling to attract either Read More >
Politics is becoming the key factor in returns on German real estate 24th March 2020
Of course the MIPIM should have been cancelled earlier. When the decision was finally taken by Reed MIDEM, the fair organisers, large swathes of the gathering’s registered attendees had already taken the decision not to travel to Cannes for Read More >
A plague on both your houses! 23rd March 2020
The battle that has raged for many years between the proponents of deflation and inflation has faded into irrelevance as it is increasingly clear that we are going to have both, in swift succession. The deflationists, like Albert Edwards, will Read More >
How to win awards 23rd March 2020
Awards are show business, mining a deep human need or peer approval. Formed and shaped for profit by producers. Staged and fronted by directors nurturing sector nabobs. Marketed and sold with ‘your rivals are on board’ whispers to sponsors. Read More >
LIVERPOOL BAY: EPISODE 8 20th March 2020
The Final Episode of our Crime Thriller set in the world of property
Following the deaths of property tycoon Charles Rudd and his CEO Nick O’Keeffe in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, insurance investigator William Rohm travelled north Read More >
The Anatomy of the Crash of 2020 19th March 2020
After decades of predictions, warnings, wagers, prophecies, and what must be many trillions of dollars expended upon short sales, long puts and written calls, hedges and directional bets of every sort: the long-awaited “big Kahuna” – a Read More >
Performance of the Savills Prime Index: World Cities 18th March 2020
During 2019, the average capital value of prime residential properties across world cities remained flat, averaging an increase of 0.1%. This was down from 2.6% for 2018 and continued the slowdown in growth seen since 2016. The slowdown Read More >
DESIGN REVIEW PANELS 18th March 2020
Amidst the clamour for local authorities to give planning permission for new homes more easily and more speedily, there is thankfully a mechanism for upholding the quality of new dwellings and their associated public realm: Design Review.
The Read More >
Coronavirus recession – who’s most at risk? 17th March 2020
Corporate debt markets look vulnerable.
Probability of a recession priced into asset classes at end of February
Source: JPMorgan, prices at 29 February 2020
February saw concerns over coronavirus go truly global, as cases emerged Read More >
A few thoughts on coronavirus and the recent stock market crash 16th March 2020
Unless you are a hermit living in a very remote cave, I’m sure you’re aware of the coronavirus pandemic.
And if you have any interest in investing, then you also probably know that stock markets around the globe have suffered what can Read More >
Does London really need a hub airport? 16th March 2020
A few weeks ago, plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport hit the skids when the Court of Appeal ruled the Government’s decision-making process unlawful. For the moment at least, with ministers preoccupied by both Brexit and the small Read More >
South Korea Preserved the Open Society and Now Infection Rates are Falling 13th March 2020
What’s the better for dealing with pandemic disease: martial-law quarantines imposed by the state according to geography, or keeping society open while trusting medical professionals, individuals, families, and communities to make intelligent Read More >
Four Freedoms State Park: the spiritual heart of New York 13th March 2020
Louis Kahn’s greatest piece of architecture wasn’t a building at all – and wasn’t completed for decades after his death.
At Derwent London, we have always drawn inspiration from architectural past masters. One such was Louis Kahn Read More >
Men go mad in herds (again) 12th March 2020
Covid-19 may or may not trigger global recession, but financial market fragility is laid bare.
Here’s the conundrum: invest with the madness or against the madness? Credit and financial markets have become increasingly reflexive as Read More >
An interview with Paul Coates 12th March 2020
Tim Green speaks to Paul Coates, Head of Debt Advisory and Structured Finance (EMEA) at CBRE.
Paul Coates has been with CBRE for just under two years, having joined to build out the company’s debt advisory platform across EMEA. He Read More >
The Short Term and Long-Term Effects of the Coronavirus (Covid 19) on Commercial Real Estate 9th March 2020
No one can accurately predict how long the Coronavirus will last or when effective vaccines can be rolled out, so all we can do is speculate, based on some logic and our past experience with SARS, which seems less serious and less deadly than Read More >
Prop. Notes: Our Proprietor invents the Marlon Brando test for industry awards and misses some old City ways 6th March 2020
I am a LinkedIn new boy or, in the jargon, a late adopter. I didn’t join until last year, and now I realise that its main use is to approach total strangers with whom you might do business. What it is not is an interesting platform for Read More >
My golden Greek memories and the Athens property market in 2020 6th March 2020
It was a delight to discuss the Greek property market with one of my oldest investor friends in Dubai as our wives chatted over delicious Burmese Khowsuey in the patio of his villa under a starlit winter night in Jumeirah. Is Greece, like Read More >
A Brexit battle plan 6th March 2020
By signing the EU withdrawal agreement, the UK has put itself in a weak negotiating position for the establishment of future trading arrangements with the EU. However, the UK can still largely prevail in these negotiations if it prepares well Read More >
Despite Recent Slowdown, Asian Capital Remains a Global Force 6th March 2020
CBRE’s latest research into Asian outbound real estate investment has uncovered some compelling new insights into buyer behaviour and their markets and assets of choice.
Firstly, Asian buyers are spending less on overseas property. Outbound Read More >
Family offices: focus shifting to higher-risk sectors 5th March 2020
German family offices are looking to increase the proportion of their investments held in residential property to around 40% by 2025, says a new report by Catella Research. Investor focus is steadily shifting from offices to higher-risk sectors Read More >
GRAFFITI ON THE TRAIN 5th March 2020
This is the title of a Stereophonics song, but it also evokes yet another trend which Europe has sleepwalked into adopting from the US. Why, those subway trains covered from track to roof in graffiti have become synonymous with any Read More >
What awaits the Euro, yen and crude oil this week? 5th March 2020
The US dollar is the traditional safe haven currency during times of geopolitical or financial stress even when the cause of a risk aversion spasm is ultimately American, such as the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008, Obama’s epic budget Read More >
Back of the queue? A US trade agreement is within sight 4th March 2020
The Department for International Trade has now set out the UK government’s strategic objectives for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US. After all the negativity about Brexit over the last few years, this paper is a welcome breath of Read More >
Will coronavirus really tank the world economy? 3rd March 2020
Last week equity markets concluded that the spread of coronavirus has major implications for economic growth and corporate profits. The sell-off in US equities was the sharpest correction since the Great Depression in 1933. It is a measure of Read More >
Shutting out low-skilled migrants might be popular, but that doesn’t make it a good policy 27th February 2020
The government has released a policy statement outlining, in broad strokes, what its new points-based immigration system, due to come into effect next year, is going to look like.
As anticipated, the biggest change is that freedom Read More >
What I’ve been drinking this month… 27th February 2020
It’s been a rather excellent start to the vinous year, for I have been immersing myself in the joys of all things Piemonte, the jewel of NW Italy. Indeed, this was fully enabled by four days’ tasting amidst the rolling hills of the Langhe Read More >
Boar’s Head Theatre Excavation 25th February 2020
On an urban street corner, where Middlesex Street meets Whitechapel High Street in East London, lie the remains of a lost Shakespearean-era playhouse, the Boar’s Head. Its existence was already known due to references in historic records, such Read More >
German politics in disarray as Europe bids UK goodbye 24th February 2020
The British finally left the European Union last month. Ahead, in the negotiations, there will be much blood, much gnashing of teeth, and the devil will indeed be in the details. But, for the moment at least, the mood is of relief, that there is Read More >
Gulf Real Estate Woes: Not Just a Question of Supply 21st February 2020
The real estate market in Dubai (or for that matter, the entire Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which includes the UAE – Abu Dhabi and Dubai – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman), has not been a happy place to be invested in Read More >
LIVERPOOL BAY: EPISODE 7 21st February 2020
Insurance investigator William Rohm has discovered that before they were drowned in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, multi-millionaire Charles Rudd and his CEO Nick O’Keeffe had been threatened by a vengeful crime syndicate, less than Read More >
Online learning – a new model for Learn while you Earn 20th February 2020
Within the field of postgraduate education there has been a growing interest in providing (and undertaking) part-time courses, which are of the same academic standard and rigour as full time courses, but allow students to “earn while they Read More >
Desert Diary 7 20th February 2020
The new decade that was ushered in by the usual dazzling Burj Khalifa fireworks provoked some reflection on my part, for it was 10 years ago this year that I made the move to the Gulf.
Back then it was a leap into the unknown, where Read More >
The Green Line: Gravity – suspended until further notice 20th February 2020
What on earth is going on?
MSCI developed markets growth versus value
Source: Minack Advisors †Ratio of growth/value one year ahead forecast EPS *Growth/value indices for MSCI developed markets
Gravity is a universal constant. But Read More >
Watching For The “Full Employment Liquidity Trap” 19th February 2020
Full Employment Liquidity Trap" may sound like an oxymoron, but this phenomenon does exist in Japan, Europe and in many other places.
For example, both Japan and Germany have been stuck in a liquidity trap, where interest rates have fallen Read More >
BUYER BEWARE: THE LAW COMMISSION REPORTS 14th February 2020
The Law Commission has now (on 09 January 2020) published its much awaited paper on reform of our system of leasehold enfranchisement, the process by which tenants who own their property on a long lease can extend the lease or purchase the Read More >
What does ‘friction’ in trade really mean for the UK? 14th February 2020
It seems like every few weeks, a British minister says in no uncertain terms that there will be friction in the customs and administrative procedures between the UK and EU. Such pronouncements are followed by howls of anguish from the business Read More >
Global Economic Outlook: Positives Still Outweigh the Negatives 13th February 2020
Just as geopolitical headwinds eased in late January with a phase-one U.S./China trade deal and the U.K. formally leaving the European Union, worries about the Chinese coronavirus outbreak surged and the growing optimism on global growth Read More >
The Aga Khan and Lisbon’s fabulous property market 13th February 2020
Lisbon, Portugal’s capital, is the best performing property market in Western Europe, a magnet for investors from the EU and 8,000 plus non-EU citizens who have taken advantage of the minority Socialist government’s “golden visa” program Read More >
Are falling real wages the future for us all? 13th February 2020
The issue of wage growth is something we have found ourselves returning to time and time again. The cause is in one sense very simple there has been a lack of it. There are two components of this of which the first is just simply low numbers but Read More >
Technology, People, Retail & The Future of Shopping Centres 13th February 2020
5 decades of Moore’s Law (which states that computing power doubles every 18 months) means that in the 2020’s we will experience change at a pace that makes the current decade seem positively sluggish. A Trinity of Transformation, involving Read More >
Disasters keep coming: letter from New Zealand 12th February 2020
It's the time of year when my loyal half dozen readers expect a missive from the far end of the world. Usually a disaster, natural or man made accompanies my travels and this time is no exception.
The ghastly 'White Island' horror Read More >
The Saudi Aramco IPO shares face rising risks in 2020. 12th February 2020
A month and a half after Saudi Aramco’s historic IPO on the Tadawul exchange in Riyadh, I conclude a few salient themes from its price action and trading patterns. One, the $2 trillion valuation sought by the Royal Court in the kingdom since Read More >
History’s first virus triggered global recession has already begun – and the Fed is clueless. 11th February 2020
Thankfully, I was not in the global markets during the Black Death, the Great Plague and the Spanish flu pandemic but coronavirus cases have now crossed 40,000 infections and this is way beyond a local Wuhan outbreak. Despite the blowout 225,000 Read More >
Is micro-living the next small thing? 11th February 2020
We move to cities and we live in small groups when we get there. These two trends, urbanisation and smaller households, are contributing to housing shortages in cities across the world.
The challenge can be met by having the right sort Read More >
Railways and Agglomeration: Evidence from the Past 10th February 2020
“It promises to join up various portions of the metropolis with what has been described as an ‘inner ring’ represented by the Metropolitan District Railway. New lines will bring passengers from east, west, north and south to the District Read More >
Art for art’s sake: Nice paintings, shame about the building 7th February 2020
Philadelphia’s new downtown home for the Barnes Foundation’s stunning collection is a missed architectural opportunity – but worth a visit to check out the paintings.
A recent trip to the US included lunch with my godfather at the Read More >
It’s not that simple 7th February 2020
Simple comparison in property valuation involves greater complexity than some may assume – and it’s getting harder.
Comparison is the lynchpin of all valuations. In property, we use the term ‘comparable’ to describe the Read More >
LESSONS FROM THE RECENT WAR FILMS 1917 AND MIDWAY 6th February 2020
I have long maintained that films are powerful indications of the social mood and values of a society. Within that context, the comparison between two recent war films is highly informative as to the disparate perspectives on the importance of a Read More >
Not all animal farms are equal 5th February 2020
Activists who condemn all livestock agriculture indiscriminately might want to consider the ecological benefits of pasture.
At Montague farm we raise organic, grass-fed, single-suckled beef cattle as well as naturally reared lambs. The Read More >
Coronavirus Highlights Xi’s Vulnerability 4th February 2020
The coronavirus epidemic may be centre-stage for epidemiologists and other health professionals right now, but it is unquestionably also a political economy event in China with important repercussions for the rest of the world and financial Read More >
What made the world go round 4th February 2020
Talk about a long-term hold – it took 10m years just to form the spinning flat disc that was later to become our solar system.
The best theory we have today about how the solar system was formed – and one that has been supported by a Read More >
Twelve macro and strategy forecasts for a post virus world in 2020. 3rd February 2020
It is impossible to gaze into a macro crystal ball without being forced to swallow crushed glass at the best of times. This is definitely not the best of times but I will take the risk of choking on shattered glass anyway and take you into the Read More >
Why aren’t approved inspectors liable? 31st January 2020
The inspectors who certify new UK homes as safely built aren’t apparently liable if the homes are defective. This can’t be right.
How safe are our homes? This is a question with a tragic resonance these days as the public inquiry into the Read More >
Both China and the world economy are being impacted by the Corona Virus 30th January 2020
The weekend just gone was one where an epidemic began to have more economic consequences. In a world where there appears to be a Trump Tweet for pretty much everything this one from Friday is not going so well.
China has been working very Read More >
How Economist readers helped build India’s railways 30th January 2020
The history of infrastructure finance has much to teach us. Let’s look at Indian railway securities during the time of the British Empire and the role played by the Economist
The period 1880-1913, characterised as the first era of Read More >
A life on the ocean wave is better than going to work 29th January 2020
And while high-tech modern racing vessels can be seductively sophisticated, a classic yacht takes charm to another level
My absolute passion is sailing. I rather consider my 30-year City career a necessary distraction to keep me off Read More >
Comic art collecting comes of age 28th January 2020
A single page of comic art can command prices of up to $1m – this isn’t just a market for sentimental collectors
“Everything you can imagine is real,” Pablo Picasso once said. Nothing could better sum up the appeal of collecting comic Read More >
Cautiously optimistic? 27th January 2020
A famous quotation, probably erroneously dedicated to the financier J. P. Morgan, is that, when asked for an outlook on the stock market, he replied, “it will fluctuate”. The real estate market tends to fluctuate too, between two Read More >
Where are the forests when we need them? 27th January 2020
Farming uses too much land, thanks to wasteful practices and inappropriate incentives. Let’s plant trees and save the world instead
Woodland has a most remarkable effect on the climate, both at the extremely local level and as an essential Read More >
Branching out: what trees can do for farming 24th January 2020
As UK agriculture faces major funding changes, one important resource should not be overlooked in developing sustainable farming systems
Those who remember farming in the decades after the second world war, especially the 1970s, will know Read More >
The Aga Khan and Portugal’s golden real estate market! 24th January 2020
Portugal has been a fabulously profitable market for a few prescient real estate investors from the UAE since 2015, with close friends telling me that prices of their apartments in upscale districts of Lisbon and Porto are up an incredible 50% Read More >
LIVERPOOL BAY: EPISODE 6 23rd January 2020
Following the deaths of property tycoon Charles Rudd and his CEO Nick O’Keeffe in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, insurance investigator William Rohm has travelled north to sign-off their big-money life policies. When he discovers that Read More >
Let’s kick lower-league football up a notch 23rd January 2020
To stop small clubs going under requires not extra cash but an independent body charged with developing the game as a whole
After death throes worthy of a B-movie murder scene and with a parliamentary committee picking over the bones and Read More >
Heard on the road: residential, retail and London all appeal 22nd January 2020
What do investors want right now? Which are their preferred opportunities, and what do you need to know about them? This new series sums up what one investment adviser has gathered from roadshows, conferences and meetings across Europe
Heard Read More >
The poisoned prize: the quest for oil, money and power in Libya. 21st January 2020
Libya, more than any other province of the kingdom of black gold apart from Iraq, has been a tragic victim of the “oil curse”. Libya possesses 48 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, the largest in Africa, bigger than even Angola Read More >
The diary of an alternative assets dealer 21st January 2020
The looming crisis in list stocks and bonds is driving interest in alternatives – but their inherent illiquidity can defeat risk managers’ comprehension
Alternatives is becoming a busy market. It would appear the global asset allocation Read More >
What The Next Generation Of Investors Means For Financial Advisers 20th January 2020
The inter-generational transfer of wealth is a trend that has taken many analysts by surprise. With the asset-rich, baby-boomer generation slowly approaching retirement, their children and grandchildren are set to inherit an unprecedented amount Read More >
Flexible leasing isn’t going to change 17th January 2020
WeWork, with its space-as-a-service model, began a chain reaction that will have a lasting impact on the commercial property market
The term ‘smart building’ first appeared in an Iron Man comic from 1994, according to Propmodo’s Franco Read More >
2020: year of destiny, year of peril 16th January 2020
What a difference a year makes! And why should the calendar matter so much, if at all? Many investors began 2019 with their performance in shreds, bracing for the worst. They finished 2019 boasting that global stock markets had posted their best Read More >
Why property investment is like a game of darts 16th January 2020
A player’s three-dart shooting average offers a clear metric that can be analysed to reveal the best strategic options – investment management has parallels
Statistically, if a player’s three-dart shooting average is less than 80, Read More >
Tackling the UK housing crisis: is supply the answer? – A summary 16th January 2020
UK average house prices have risen by over 160% in real terms since the middle of 1996. Home ownership remains around its lowest level for a generation. Among political leaders, policymakers and commentators there is a broad consensus that these Read More >
A brand-new way to look at UK estate agents 15th January 2020
A different model is poised to take over the British market, with brands that are personal rather than corporate
If you are looking to buy, sell, let or rent, how important is the brand or reputation of the agent you deal with? And is that Read More >
Don’t get trampled by a grey rhino 14th January 2020
Hyped-up, high-profile risks can distract from more serious but mundane threats to business
Social media and the 24-hour news cycle are putting businesses at risk as hype-up threats distracts from more genuine ones. Business risk assessment Read More >
Why northern buy-to-lets are still a bargain 13th January 2020
Investment pouring in from the south hasn’t yet brought down northern England’s higher yields.
It has been widely reported for several years now that rental yields are typically higher in the north of England than they are in the south. Read More >
Stable Doors and Gated Funds 10th January 2020
To counter new rules on gating amid concerns over illiquidity, funds are holding higher levels of cash. But does this really make sense?
As we edge towards a Brexit resolution (apologies if the big reveal has already happened by the time you Read More >
LIVERPOOL BAY: EPISODE 5 10th January 2020
After property tycoon Charles Rudd and his CEO Nick O’Keeffe are drowned in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, insurance investigator William Rohm is sent north to sign-off their big-money life policies. But when Rudd’s widow casts doubt Read More >
GLOBAL PENSION FUNDS: THE COMING STORM 10th January 2020
The Gloomy Outlook for Returns & Pension Funds
This research note was originally published by the CFA Institute’s Enterprising Investor blog. Here is the link.
SUMMARY
The outlook for US equity and bond returns is low based on Read More >
Behavioural biases in real estate investment 9th January 2020
Human psychology can have a big impact on decision-making. We make cognitive errors on a routine basis by using rules of thumb and over-simplifications. We follow stories rather than facts. We are prone to social biases, such as groupthink and Read More >
If we can’t have lower taxes, let’s at least have fewer 9th January 2020
It wasn’t just Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party that lost the 2019 election – fiscal conservatism and proponents for small government took a hammering too. All the main parties promised increases in government expenditure, and most were Read More >
A good office building keeps the workers happy 9th January 2020
The real estate industry has a lot to learn about human behaviour and happiness: dissatisfied occupiers won’t stick around.
Richard Thaler, the behavioural economist, received long overdue recognition when he won the Nobel Prize for Read More >
What will boundary changes mean for British politics? 8th January 2020
Since last month’s general election, there’s been much talk about different types of constituencies, how they voted, and what the geography of party support tells us about how the country voted.
But it also matters for how the next Read More >
Short-term thinking in the home rental market 8th January 2020
Banning Airbnb investor units, as Boston has done, reduces market values by up to 40% – but should other social goals dominate?
Recently Boston decided to ban Airbnb-type rental units, suggesting that the growth of such short-term rentals Read More >
The last hour is now what matters in logistics 7th January 2020
It was always about the last mile, but tech is shifting the emphasis to time. So what makes an optimal last-hour location?
Earlier this year I was invited by the International Council of Shopping Centers to give a talk on the outlook for Read More >
Three types of NAV 6th January 2020
EPRA’s new best practice recommendations for NAV calculations, which kick in this January, introduce three discrete NAV measures to replace the old ones. Are you ready?
It is well known that the UK listed sector (in aggregate) currently Read More >
It’s not that simple 3rd January 2020
Simple comparison in property valuation involves greater complexity than some may assume – and it’s getting harder
Comparison is the lynchpin of all valuations. In property, we use the term ‘comparable’ to describe the transaction of Read More >
Has We killed the unicorns? 3rd January 2020
WeWork’s ill-fated IPO is the tip of an iceberg
WeWork revenue and operating losses and 'valuation' (US$)
Riddle me this. We eat $229,000 every hour, every day, year after year. We are in nearly 500 places at the same time. We lose a Read More >
Thinking the unthinkable: Lebanon’s sovereign debt default? 2nd January 2020
The unthinkable has finally happened in a secretive central bank’s digital ledger in the heart of Beirut. The rating agency Fitch predicts imminent default on Lebanon’s sovereign debt, at $88 a colossal 185% of GDP, making the once “Paris Read More >
Grow rich slowly with REITs: collecting and compounding in an uncertain world 2nd January 2020
Long-term property returns derive from income and its compounding potential – that’s precisely what REITs were created to deliver
During the first half of 2007, Apple launched its first iPhone and the UK government introduced the REIT Read More >
US and UK stock market valuations are now poles apart 1st January 2020
Yes, the S&P 500 has soared ahead of the FTSE All-Share, but beware its overstretched valuation ratios. It’s always best to get off the bull before it turns into a bear
For a long time, the US and UK stock markets were more or less Read More >
How much longer can this record expansion last? 31st December 2019
Several shocks, both positive and negative, have prevented the US economy entering an overdue recessionary phase
The US economy is in its longest economic expansion on record. The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.5% in September Read More >
Running low 30th December 2019
Ultra-low interest rates were only ever meant to be a short-term move, to stimulate investment. Where is the normalisation we were promised?
This has been a year in which, amid the many surprises that have made mugs of forecasters, the big Read More >
We need to bring Russia back into the fold 27th December 2019
As the global commodity price cycle begins its downward swing, Russia is set to be hit hard, forcing Putin to reassert himself – unless the West acts first
The impending worldwide recession will act as the final stage in the decline of Read More >
Life on the level 24th December 2019
If the property boom-bust cycle has permanently come to an end, what will that mean for investors?
I have previously written about the impact of low interest rates and quantitative easing on the Japanese economy in the 1990s and 2000s and how Read More >
Is this the age of permanently cheap credit? 23rd December 2019
It’s hard to know if debt refinancing at today’s rates is a gross distortion of reality or the shape of things to come
Are interest rate cycles a thing of the past? Have we entered an age of permanently cheap capital? It is astonishing to Read More >
Is it too late to invest in UK housebuilders? 20th December 2019
As a group, UK housebuilders have produced astonishingly good financial results over the last decade.
This has given their shareholders equally astonishing returns, with average share price gains from the largest housebuilders at close to Read More >
2020: new cycle ahead 20th December 2019
After a difficult year for the global economy, is the turning point drawing close?
Twelve months ago, many in the property industry were concerned about an approaching downturn for the global economy. Sadly, those fears about 2019 proved to Read More >
Alternatives are the new Core 19th December 2019
The demise of high street retailing in the UK has been a subject of national concern for some time – and even mainstream TV and radio has covered the issue from a variety of angles. The very public failure of big-name brands such as Read More >
Five ways Boris Johnson can reboot and rebalance the economy 19th December 2019
A political leader who has just secured a large majority has rarely regretted doing too much, too quickly. Boris Johnson’s extraordinary opportunity for radical reform of the structures of government and economy must not be wasted. The Read More >
The great mistake – QE and austerity 19th December 2019
Pumping cash into the economy was meant to make us all better off. Instead the money got locked into stocks and bonds to enrich the wealthy, while austerity made everyone else poorer
The editor of this esteemed publication recently asked me Read More >
Triumph, tragedy and trauma in the Arab capital markets! 18th December 2019
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Charles Dickens’s chronicle about Paris and London at the time of the French Revolution in the 1790’s captures my feelings about the Arab capital markets in 2019. The best of times? Saudi Read More >
Getting the right manager 18th December 2019
Institutions are increasingly pushing underperforming listed property companies to take steps to create value, Guy Barnard of Janus Henderson and Alan Carter of Stifel tell The Property Chronicle
Managers of UK-listed real estate companies Read More >
What now after Draghi, WeWork and Thomas Cook? 17th December 2019
Could this year be an inflection point for three key structural trends in the UK and European real estate markets?
The evolution of the European real estate markets is increasingly being influenced by structural trends, in particular the Read More >
Can Brussels help fix the Regional Retail Trap? 17th December 2019
Policies, events and innovations intend to deliver predefined goals or solve existing problems, but unintended consequences often determine the outcome. Hence traders thrive on spotting unintended consequences and taking positions before the Read More >
Can anything wobble this market? 17th December 2019
The markets go from strength to strength as the real world around them struggles to stay standing – surely this can’t last?
There’s a childhood game, whose name changes each generation – currently called Jenga. It starts as a wall of Read More >
The bullish case for $1650 an ounce gold by mid 2020 16th December 2019
I have been thinking a lot about the James Bond villain Auric Goldfinger in 2019 – and why not? Spot gold has generated a stellar 17% profit in 2019 to date, despite King Dollar, the fall in the Volatility Index to 13 (minimal fear, maximum Read More >
A REIT little firestorm 16th December 2019
With so much capital chasing anything with a decent yield and without excessive risk, property remains attractive – but are these shares as cheap as they look?
The property sector has enjoyed a 10% rally over the last few months, advancing Read More >
What is driving the regional UK office market? 16th December 2019
The rise of co-working and northshoring, along with increased infrastructure investment, are benefiting regional cities at the expense of London
While continental European real estate has become ever more expensive since the Brexit Read More >
LIVERPOOL BAY: EPISODE 4 13th December 2019
Following the deaths of property tycoon Charles Rudd and his CEO Nick O’Keeffe in a sailing accident, William Rohm has travelled to Liverpool to sign-off the life insurance claims. After meeting Rudd’s company secretary Guy Danvers, Rohm Read More >
With a General Election looming, the Labour Party has once again raised the prospect of re-nationalising our railway network. Good idea or not so good? 13th December 2019
Anyone under the age of 40 will have little experience of the nationalised British Rail and few people know which parts are now in private hands and which parts are either completely nationalised or are tightly controlled by the Department of Read More >
Waiting for the drop 13th December 2019
Watch share prices, brace for a bang.
“If something is true, no amount of wishful thinking will change it. - Richard Dawkins
Real estate currently beats any but the riskiest investment classes – doesn’t it? Provided interest rates Read More >
An interview with Oliver Fenn-Smith 12th December 2019
Oliver Fenn-Smith has almost 30 years’ experience in the commercial and residential property sectors in the West End of London and is chief executive of The Portman Estate. The 110-acre estate has been privately owned by the Portman family Read More >
It’s time to look again at the BBC licence fee 11th December 2019
Among the maelstrom of election news stories that broke yesterday was one that will be music to the ears of many free-marketeers. Responding to a question from a member of the public, Boris Johnson said that the BBC licence fee should be Read More >
Do the Wight thing with this island walk 11th December 2019
It’s time for another revitalising stroll, enjoying the stunning views and butterflies of this southern English isle
It’s not every day that you head to the station and buy a single ticket to Lymington Pier. This is the point where a Read More >
UK regional cities are a good investment bet 10th December 2019
With Brexit uncertainty hitting London hardest and high-grade office supply tight in the capital, investors are looking to other UK cities
Brexit and now the general election have been driving the current state of uncertainty in the UK Read More >
Prop. Notes: WeWork, Bakelite telephones and London tribes 9th December 2019
In my previous life as a RE Fund Manager, I was not very interested in meeting other professional investors. But one of the best bits about being proprietor of The Property Chronicle is that I get to meet with, and hear what is on the minds of, Read More >
Marina City, Chicago’s hidden gem 6th December 2019
The birthplace of the skyscraper overflows with famous buildings – but none as stunning as a lesser-known piece of architecture, Bertrand Goldberg’s brutalist ‘city within a city’
A recent architectural field trip with my company, Read More >
How to build a green economy that boosts growth and saves the planet 6th December 2019
In the past there has been scepticism about climate change. The scientific evidence has put paid to that. It is unequivocal.
Now, instead, the scepticism appears to be about whether economic growth can be achieved alongside addressing climate Read More >
Risk, ruin and leveraged madness for the Arabian Gulf’s bond investors. 6th December 2019
I was a tad unnerved by the thousands of views and hundreds of responses to my article that “This crazy bull market will crash and die in 2020”. Guess what? The Dow is down 700 points in the past two sessions – so my warning was priceless Read More >
Smart Buildings 6th December 2019
I just read a piece in Urban Land Magazinetitled "ULX: Smart Buildings." Smart in the UK typically means fashionable and expensive. In the US, it's clever or intelligent. It would be great if a building met both Read More >
For China, the 2020s will be a difficult decade 6th December 2019
At the dawn of the 2020s, China is facing challenges that are perhaps the most serious since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976.
Until relatively recently, these were predominantly home-grown problems gathering momentum slowly over the last Read More >
Control? Alter? Delete? What to do about the tech tax 5th December 2019
Nato’s birthday celebrations were marred by a row between two of the guests, Presidents Macron and Trump, over both the health of the military alliance and France’s decision to hit US firms with a new digital tax. This row has at least drawn Read More >
Why globalisation is good for the environment 5th December 2019
Globalisation is under attack in ways which would be scarcely imaginable even just a few years ago. That the President on the USA now proudly brands himself ‘Tariff Man’ is testimony to this fact.
But it’s not just sloganeering – Read More >
Labour’s train fare gimmick is already coming off the rails 4th December 2019
Labour’s plans to reduce rail fares by 33% takes from the poor to pay for the travel of the rich while inevitably providing less money for maintenance and upgrades.
As usual, with Labour’s giveaways of other people’s money, they are Read More >
The Saudi Aramco IPO and Brent crude oil prices will fly in December! 3rd December 2019
November was a beautiful month for bulls on the North Sea Brent futures contracts traded on the London IPE and Chicago Merc. After all, Brent crude surged from $58 in late October to almost $64 now as I write. The wet barrel market prices in a Read More >
The UK election and an anatomy of the coming sterling crisis! 2nd December 2019
Trading sterling based on the eccentricities of UK polling data has been historically a mug’s game – an existential reality magnified by the traumatic fall in cable after the June 23 2016 shocker on the Brexit referendum. So I had a 1.30 Read More >
Make or break 29th November 2019
Risk sentiment has improved further during the last month as the heightened recession fears that built over the summer are gradually getting priced out. Global equities have risen back towards their January 2018 highs, led by the US market; and Read More >
SAP shares are up 50% since my €82 buy conviction call in 2018! 29th November 2019
I had recommended SAP shares at €82 in the Gulf financial press in early 2018 as its then CEO Bill McDermott committed the firm to the digital transformation of the UAE at Dubai’s World Government Summit. I published a second article on Read More >
How to fix the housing shortage – permanently 29th November 2019
Recently released Government housebuilding data contains a pleasant surprise – the number of new dwellings in England was over 241,000. This is the highest rate of housebuilding in England since the target for 240,000 new homes a year for the Read More >
PPM Research Note: Italia 29th November 2019
This article is a republished version of one that appeared earlier in the year. Why? Because there’s another reason to sing about the virtues of Italian wines; the Trump administration have recently introduced a 25% tariff on all wines from Read More >
Forget tweaking business rates, we need a Land Value Tax 28th November 2019
One of the Conservatives’ key election pledges has been to cut business rates. In many ways, this is understandable, given the significant financial burden they represent for many small companies, especially retailers.
Despite the gross Read More >
The London Mayoral Contest: the first post-Brexit election? 28th November 2019
Imagine a British election that’s not – first and foremost – about Brexit. Given the one we’re having right now it’s tough, isn’t it? There are younger voters, now in their early 20s, who have gone to the ballot box a handful of Read More >
Lebanon: Ghosts, memories and monetary abyss 28th November 2019
I first encountered Lebanon as a teenager after the fabled Choueifat College opened its first UAE campus in Sharjah, fleeing the civil war in the Chouf. My ignorance of the country I was to know and love as my own patrie was monumental. When a Read More >
The Uber ban is a slap in the face to Londoners 27th November 2019
It’s a dark day for Londoners.
Uber – the ride-hailing app which launched in the city in 2012 and has since revolutionised transport across the world’s major cities – has been handed an effective ban from operating in the capital by Read More >
Christine Lagarde trolls Germany and asks for more fiscal stimulus 26th November 2019
This morning has seen the first set piece speech of the new ECB President Christine Lagarde and it would not be her without some empty rhetoric.
The idea of European renewal may, for some, elicit feelings of cynicism. We have heard it many Read More >
Home ownership must not be the sole focus of housing policy 25th November 2019
This Christmas, 126,000 children in England will be living in temporary accommodation, having been made homeless with their families. The failure by successive governments to build enough social housing has made it impossible for low income Read More >
Elections, government policies and UK house prices – the real story 25th November 2019
Government policies and elections affect house prices, but in what way and by how much? A new report from Birmingham City University researchers reveals why property professionals should take note when elections are in the air
The period of Read More >
The Green Line: How Corporate America stole its own future 21st November 2019
US Companies are paying shareholders more than they can afford
Dividends and buybacks have exceeded free cash flow levels since 2013
Source: Capital Group. Universe is made up of 2,902 non-financial US-based companies that represent Read More >
French Disconnection – Part 3 20th November 2019
Colleagues
So I got the job at Hampton’s in Paris. The golf connection seemed to have done the trick. At twenty-five I was going to jump head first into a new life across the Channel in the City of Light. I could scarcely believe it and in Read More >
Practical steps, not ideology, will close Britain’s digital divide 19th November 2019
The rural economy has extraordinary potential. Food production will always be the backbone of any farm, but landowners are now increasingly likely to be building affordable homes, renting holiday cottages, running renewable energy Read More >
Why tinkering with corporation tax is a bad idea 18th November 2019
Boris Johnson’s decision to postpone next year’s planned cut in corporation tax is risky – both as a piece of politics and as economics. If anyone can sell it, I suspect that he can, but it’s still not necessarily a good move.
To Read More >
Global real estate is set to badly overheat – but not quite yet 18th November 2019
Temperatures could hit 70ºC in 250m years’ time. Oh, and all the continents will be squished into one
The world is in a state of alarm – and rightly so – at how much damage will be caused by rising temperatures of even a few degrees as Read More >
LIVERPOOL BAY: EPISODE 3 15th November 2019
After property tycoon Charles Rudd and his CEO, Nick O’Keeffe, are lost in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, Will Rohm has travelled north to sign-off the resulting big-money life insurance claims. Following a meeting with Company Read More >
It’s a funny story: a comic collector tells all 15th November 2019
Pricing vintage comics isn’t just about scarcity and quality – the characters are the key to value
“Comic books to me are fairy tales for grown-ups.” So said renowned comic publisher Stan Lee in a 2014 interview. And while there Read More >
The German stock market is up 26% in 2019 despite zero economic growth! 14th November 2019
November 2019 is the thirtieth anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall that led to the collapse of the Soviet occupied, neo-Stalinist DDR and the eventual reunification of Germany forty-five years after the nightmarish end of the Third Reich. Read More >
Big-engine bargains 14th November 2019
As ecological fears drive big changes in motor cars, now could be your best – and perhaps last – chance to invest in an unethical fire-breather
I don’t suppose for one moment that luxury and sports cars will become extinct, but for how Read More >
Why and how statistics matter to investors 13th November 2019
This is the first in a series of articles covering some of the predominant issues regarding financial and economic statistics. This post seeks to introduce why and how statistics matter for investors.
The Why is simple: Read More >
Digging up a right royal history 13th November 2019
Archaeologists have been thrilled at some unique finds in a sixth-century princely burial site near Southend-on-Sea
In 2003 archaeologists from the Museum of London Archaeology excavated a small plot of land in Prittlewell, Essex, for Read More >
How Much of a Threat is Build to Let to the SME Landlord? 12th November 2019
At face value, high quality purpose-built units – complete with gyms, communal areas and concierge services – would appear to offer what the rental market has long demanded.
Whilst still in its relative infancy, build to let and co-living Read More >
Ten artists to invest in this year 12th November 2019
From blue-chips like Damien Hirst to rising stars like Sterling Ruby, these are the names whose values are on the rise
The global art market reached $67.4bn in 2018 and has grown exponentially in the last two decades. Investors see increasing Read More >
Goldman Sachs’s $1.6 – 2.3 trillion valuation range for the Saudi Aramco IPO is insane! 11th November 2019
I literally laughed when I heard that Goldman Sachs put a valuation range of $1.6 to $2.3 trillion on the Saudi Aramco IPO. One, a valuation range of $700 million only means the Goldie analyst bankers (deal promoters?) are clueless about what Read More >
Can Boris Johnson live up to Lord Palmerston? 11th November 2019
The new PM shares his 19th-century predecessor’s charm, but on statesmanship skills it’s another matter
Our new prime minister is said to be an admirer of Winston Churchill, but a better model for Boris Johnson would be Lord Read More >
Buy the Saudi Aramco IPO at a 7.4% forward dividend yield! 8th November 2019
Saudi Aramco is the biggest, most profitable company in history ($110 billion revenues in 2018, $40 billion more than Apple). It has been the economic engine of the Arab world’s preeminent superpower since Chevron geologists struck the mother Read More >
The Restaurant Group: Weak profitability, long leases and high debts 8th November 2019
The Restaurant Group (which I’ll shorten to TRG) joined the model portfolio in early 2016, shortly after the company published some very upbeat 2015 results.
Revenues were up 8% while earnings and dividends per share were up 13%, continuing Read More >
A wine of elegance but not fashion 8th November 2019
Hermitage is the supreme expression of the Syrah grape, but little recognised – making it a bargain among the Rhônes
There’s a regular tale of customer woe, familiar to all wine merchants, that goes something along the lines of: “I Read More >
Who can beat Trump? 8th November 2019
Insofar as age has been an issue in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, the focus has been the advancing years of two of the frontrunners.
Seventy-six-year-old Joe Biden’s circuitous soliloquies and memory lapses leave many Read More >
The Pains and Benefits of Transforming to a More Productive Society 7th November 2019
Introduction
The world can be viewed through the lens of economics and real estate markets in that whatever we do requires space, and whenever processes change it has both positive and negative impacts. You show me a more Read More >
How Will Alsop put architecture in its place 7th November 2019
While his buildings were strikingly modern and fun, he was keen to connect them to their context and the past
One of the most colourful members of the architectural community died last year at the relatively young age of 70. Will Alsop was a Read More >
There’s more to low pay than just the minimum wage 6th November 2019
The governmental art of calling for an independent study is making sure you’ll get the answer you want before it begins.
Much of that depends, of course, on appointing the right person to carry out the research. The ‘independence’ part Read More >
UK farming can flourish outside Europe 6th November 2019
Unleashing innovation is the key to a new, improved British agricultural policy
As discussions on the future of UK agriculture continue, many have given voice to their dreams – and indeed their nightmares. The vision of the Department Read More >
An interview with Benn Zemek 5th November 2019
Benn Zemek is the Chief Financial Officer of the Battersea Power Station project. Benn joined the project in early 2013, shortly after acquisition by the Malaysian consortium (SP Setia, Sime Darby Property and EPF). He has since played a key Read More >
Feeding an empty planet 5th November 2019
Global population will soon start to fall, making much farmland redundant
The world is heading for demographic change more quickly than many foresee, bringing challenges of a kind not faced since the fall of the Roman Empire. We will Read More >
What the tenant fee ban really means for agents 4th November 2019
Should letting agents be worried about the impact of new legislation?
The Tenant Fees Act 2019 or, as it’s more often referred to, the tenant fee ban, is a piece of legislation that came into effect on 1 June 2019 and basically prohibits Read More >
How to lose an unlosable election 3rd November 2019
In 1945 and again in 1974, the Tories lost an election they had been certain to win. Why? And is it about to happen again?
If Boris Johnson loses the election on 12 December, it will be in the long tradition of Conservative governments that Read More >
It’s all about MEES, MEES, MEES: the new rules on energy efficiency will change property forever 1st November 2019
UK legislation enforcing minimum emissions standards for existing buildings can no longer be ignored
“A change in the weather is sufficient to recreate the world and ourselves,” or so said Marcel Proust 99 years ago. I wish he had Read More >
What are the economic consequences of Brexit? 31st October 2019
After all the uncertainty in the UK we will have some sort of progress in that we will have an election putting the voters at least briefly in charge. Whether that will solve things is open to debate but let us take a look at what the economic Read More >
It’s about time offices went green 31st October 2019
The commercial property sector has slacked on sustainability, but smart monitoring offers cost savings which could change that
For everyone except Donald Trump – who seems to have buried his head under a rock for the past 50 years – Read More >
Have we already found the solution to climate change? 31st October 2019
Glory be, the International Energy Agency has declared that climate change is nearly solved – and it won’t require us all returning to medieval lifestyles or overthrowing globalised industrial capitalism, as Greta and Extinction Rebellion Read More >
Rebalancing Britain: Don’t count on new towns to regenerate the regions 30th October 2019
‘Rebalancing Britain’ is a major collaboration between CapX and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation focusing on how the Government should tackle the longstanding imbalances in the British economy. The project focuses not only on the Read More >
Because you’re worth it 30th October 2019
What do high-net-worth individuals look for in a financial services provider?
It’s fair to say that now is an exciting, if challenging, time for the UK financial services sector. The market is moving at a rapid pace as new technologies and Read More >
Consilia Capital Real Assets Funds Report Q3 2019 29th October 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:A summary of Fund performanc
A summary of Fund performance
The table below shows the average Q3 2019, YTD 2019, 3 and 5 year returns for the mandates in our database. As can be Read More >
Make way for Generation Z 29th October 2019
They’ll soon be two-fifths of consumers, so financial advisers must learn to see the world their way
In today’s world things change fast, and it can be hard to keep up with new trends and the opportunities they bring, especially in the Read More >
Don’t let emissions rules drive your property out of the market 28th October 2019
The new CRREM tool reduces the risk of properties being ‘stranded’ by non-compliance with changing regulations
Climate change represents an enormous challenge for real estate, requiring adjustments at numerous levels. The property Read More >
Where next for UK house prices? 25th October 2019
Today has brought a flurry of information on the state of play in the UK housing market as we wait to see how the slow sown in house price growth is developing. We start by noting that according to the official series things may have changed a Read More >
22 Bishopsgate: a rags-to-riches tale
25th October 2019
How Lipton Rogers turned around the fortunes of an abandoned stump in the City of London
With a net floor area of 1.4m sq. ft, when 22 Bishopsgate is completed it will be the largest single office building in Europe, and one that delivers Read More >
Politicians could use a lesson in neuroscience 24th October 2019
“Daddy, Daddy. Can we clean your car?”My then three and five-year-olds came bouncing up full of enthusiasm.
“How much?” I asked.
“£1”. Their opening offer.
50p. My counter offer.
“Deal”.
And Read More >
The answer to lobbying is laissez-faire 24th October 2019
The actual first rule of Fight Club is to get your retaliation in first.
It is this which explains the two linked stories today. Why are tech companies employing the likes of Nick Clegg and David Cameron? One is simply awaiting the Read More >
The UK has opened the fiscal taps and started a fiscal stimulus 23rd October 2019
The credit crunch era has seen some extraordinary changes in the establishment view of monetary policy. The latest is this from the Peterson Institute from earlier this month.
On October 1, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government raised the Read More >
Dead and Bury’d 23rd October 2019
So after death throes worthy of a B movie murder scene and with a Parliamentary Committee picking over the bones and extracting embarrassing platitudes from EFL and FA executives, it looks like Bury FC are finally gone – kicked into hell by a Read More >
The housing crisis is a symptom of our dysfunctional government 23rd October 2019
Britain’s housing crisis is unique in the Western world: in the 1970s, the average buyer needed under three gross annual salaries for a house. Now they need over seven.
In my recent book Raising the Roof, co-authored with Jacob Read More >
Big Moves in the Estate Agency Market 23rd October 2019
A planned new regulatory system aims to raise standards in a rapidly changing marketplace
Is competency finally going to be as important as competition in the UK residential estate agency market?
When in 1979 the Estate Agents Act Read More >
Restrictive Covenants Need Not Rob Developers of Profit 22nd October 2019
A recent legal case proves such restrictions on land are not necessarily an obstacle to development
Restrictive covenants on land can rob it of development value, burdening a potential site with limits on use and effectively handing control Read More >
The Blue Banana of Sensible Expansion 21st October 2019
Bavarian logistics property company VIB Vermoegen is using an admirable combination of trusted partnering and smart geographical thinking
I want to talk here about a blue banana, but so as not to confuse you, let me explain first that this is Read More >
Why inflation is bad for so many people 18th October 2019
Today I wish to address what is one of the major economic swizzles of our time. That is the drip drip feed by the establishment and a largely supine media that inflation is good for us, and in particular an inflation rate of 2% per annum is a Read More >
Extinction Rebellion are wrong – capping growth won’t solve climate change 18th October 2019
It is not only Extinction Rebellion who say the UK should no longer try to get our growth rate up. The Green Party and many others are inclined to agree. But there are very strong reasons for believing that this is not the right approach – Read More >
Why UK buyers are sitting tight 18th October 2019
Political risk factors have put the UK property market on pause, especially in London – but there are rewards to be had
Political risk factors have put the UK property market on pause, especially in London – but there are rewards to be Read More >
What I’ve been drinking this month… 17th October 2019
So, I have recently indulged in a return to the vodka bottle. Now there's a line I never thought I'd write in my advancing middle-age.Now, whenever it comes to a choice of a pre-prandial (if I'm not aiming for either beer, a glass of fizz, or Read More >
The world is changing fast – and Brexit Britain must adapt quickly 17th October 2019
Do you know much about Dar es Salaam? Perhaps you might only be vaguely aware of this remote coastal city in Tanzania. But by the time your grandchildren are your age, more people will live there than in all of France.
Population Read More >
Big data and the future of property 17th October 2019
How technological advances will reshape the real estate sector
Without new data systems to monitor and respond to market forces, property companies will fall behind the curve as new technologies are adopted. Real estate has always been a Read More >
A life in real estate, part II: French disconnection 16th October 2019
In the second of 12 episodes, Oliver Ash recalls how Parisian geography got him all hot and bothered on the way to a job interview
Sometime around the middle of 1983, I picked up a copy of Chartered Surveyor Weekly and opened it at random Read More >
Beware of long-term value drivers 15th October 2019
Property investors have an unfortunate habit of not looking very far ahead
The real estate sector has a propensity to underestimate change, perhaps because change has historically been at a rather glacial rate within the industry. In my 30 Read More >
LIVERPOOL BAY: EPISODE 2 15th October 2019
When two businessmen are drowned in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, Insurance Investigator William Rohm is sent north to sign-off the claims. It should be routine. But as one of the dead men is multi-millionaire Charles Rudd, a property Read More >
How Brexit was the making of Amsterdam 14th October 2019
Short on London, long on Europe was the traders’ cry after the referendum – but things didn’t quite work out as expected
Three years on from the referendum, we still cannot fully apprehend the effect of Brexit on the European real Read More >
September wine market comment – is it time to hit the bottle? 11th October 2019
At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, the market mood is sombre. It does, however, remain reasonably steady amidst a turbulent sea of macro factors.
Hong Kong is an important market for wine and the ongoing protests are a concern. The Read More >
How European property found a home 11th October 2019
It is exactly 20 years ago that Prologis stormed into Europe and transformed the landscape of property funds, announcing it had raised $1.07bn of equity for its first European fund. This was a game-changer for the European markets, and not just Read More >
Should we care that it takes 1,000 litres of water to make a chocolate bar? 10th October 2019
According to a recent article, the latest thing to worry about is the water content of food. That’s not to say the water in the food itself, but how much was used in production.
It’s a superficially appealing complaint, but one that Read More >
Lessons from the fall of a superstar fund manager 10th October 2019
I’m sure you will know that well-known fund manager Neil Woodford has recently fallen very much out of favour with investors. Reputedly in the wake of withdrawals by some big investors said to be worried by poor performance, he even suspended Read More >
What next for WeWork? 9th October 2019
In September, parent company WeCo pulled its IPO and announced that Adam Neumann would step down as CEO, as the conflict of interest between Adam Neumann’s funding requirements and Softbank’s valuation concerns came to an end. Here, we look Read More >
Does the bond market know something others don’t? 9th October 2019
More likely those yield falls are just an anticipation that policy-makers will cave in and cut interest rates
US political adviser James Carville is reputed to have said: “I used to think that, if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come Read More >
Undermining private sector innovation puts lives at risk 9th October 2019
For the first time ever, September’s UN General Assembly Meeting included a high-level meeting on universal health coverage (UHC), a broad initiative to promote policies that lead to better health outcomes.
The unprecedented advances in Read More >
Trains and Gains: The Impact of Public Transport on Property Rents – September 2019 8th October 2019
Today is my little boy’s sixth birthday. And as I sit here waiting for him to get home from school, ready for the joy and the chaos of his party, I can’t help but smile at his presents and the ever-so predictable train set.
He absolutely Read More >
Brexit: what are the chances? 8th October 2019
Exploring the outcome probabilities of the UK’s split from the EU
Febrile. That’s the word most commonly deployed to describe the state of British politics since the EU referendum of 2016. I recall being on College Green – that patch of Read More >
Investment Management Review – October 2019 8th October 2019
There’s a childhood game, whose name changes each generation – currently called Jenga. It starts as a wall of wooden bricks, and successive players remove individual pieces until the loser takes one out, and down falls the edifice. Its drama Read More >
Why is the collection of data seen as a successful outcome? 7th October 2019
My personal collecting habits go back to the early iteration of Panini football sticker albums. Before the days of internet and easy access to ‘missing’ stickers, the endless frustration of yet another Glen Hoddle or my fifth Peter Shilton Read More >
Making sense of negative interest rates 7th October 2019
Of course they’re inherently illogical, but let’s unpack what they mean in practice for the wider investment market
How many economists does it take to screw in a lightbulb? Twenty-three: one to screw it in, and 22 to hold everything else Read More >
Junk Bonds are Going to Kill Us All 5th October 2019
A few years ago I was on Bloomberg one morning and said something like, stocks looked overly expensive and should be due a correction if it wasn’t for the support they were getting from company buybacks and the low relative yields on bonds. Read More >
The writing on the wall 4th October 2019
Alexander Chartres of Ruffer tells Property Chronicle how past crises inform the wealth manager’s outlook as the world economy approaches a turning point
On the wall of Ruffer’s office in a modern glass block on London’s Victoria Street Read More >
How Brexit Britain Can Become a Global Trade Hub for Services 4th October 2019
The 21st century global economy is characterised by a number of trends, including the growth of cross-border trade in services, among others such as e-commerce. For Britain, focusing on services plays to its strengths as a largely services-based Read More >
My clash with BBC Newsnight’s Emily Maitlis 4th October 2019
Saying I favour a no-deal Brexit in order to buy property cheaply after a resulting crash was wrong – and illogical
Newsnight is a programme I have watched for years, with a great deal of respect for the quality of its journalism. I was Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 3rd October 2019
It’s going to be relatively short comment today – I just spent the last 1 ½ hours standing all the way from Southampton to the City. SouthWest Rail decided to reduce the busiest Up train of the day to 5 carriages. I suppose Read More >
The demise of retail is reshaping the REIT sector 3rd October 2019
REITs are becoming what they always should have been: low-leveraged balance sheets and long-term income streams with a sustainable, growing dividend
Three features stand out for me in the quoted property sector this year. First, the Read More >
The diary of an alternative assets dealer 2nd October 2019
Suddenly the alternative assets world has become much more difficult. Three fund management companies, GAM, Woodford and H20, have scared the little cotton socks off investment committees, prompting an outbreak of extreme caution. These three Read More >
There’s finance, and there’s reality 1st October 2019
Global financial markets seem increasingly disconnected from real world events – keep your eyes on the macro trends
I’ve spent 35 years in finance, and much of the market activity I’m watching just doesn’t make sense any more. Am I Read More >
Labour’s 4-day week plan won’t work 30th September 2019
John McDonnell has promised that a Labour government would reduce the average full-time working week to 32 hours within a decade, with no loss of pay. This would allow many people to work four days a week, rather than five or more, and enjoy a Read More >
Can UK property rise above a no-deal Brexit? 30th September 2019
How seriously should we take warnings that prices could fall by a third or more?
It goes without saying that we are in a period of extreme uncertainty. The main cause, of course, is Brexit, and the question of whether Britain can achieve an Read More >
What rural Britain needs from Brexit 27th September 2019
Against a backdrop of Westminster turmoil, the British economy has proven itself to be more robust than many predicted. But with many expecting a global economic downturn, it’s difficult to quantify the impact the current uncertainty is having Read More >
An interview with Caroline Rouse 26th September 2019
Tim Green speaks to Caroline Rouse, chief financial officer at Noé Group
Caroline Rouse has more than 25 years experience as a finance director within the commercial and residential property sectors and is CFO at the Noé Group, a Read More >
Liverpool Bay: Episode 1 26th September 2019
Episode one of our new crime thriller serial, set in the world of property
Will Rohm was hoping his drive north would be fast and uneventful and that this case would be trouble-free too. It was a big-money life insurance claim but if he could Read More >
A tale of two bosses 25th September 2019
With British Land and Landsec both reputedly ripe for new leadership, how do the legacies of chiefs Chris Grigg and Rob Noel compare? And what’s next?
Ignore gallery chatter that Landsec will either bloom or wilt when 55-year-old chief Read More >
Prop. Notes: Our Proprietor ruminates on Enoch Powell vs Roy Jenkins vs Tony Benn, negative interest rates and the crassness of BA 24th September 2019
Back in sticky, sweaty July, discussion over lunch turned to techniques for getting back to sleep at 4am. I confessed that my trick is to watch old political footage on YouTube, including conferences and US Presidential speeches.
Worse Read More >
Mad for growth 23rd September 2019
Investors chasing growth stocks creates both danger and opportunities
PE premium for UK growth stocks over UK value
Stock market manias always start with some grounding in solid fact, before investors get carried away and drive up Read More >
What to buy in wine this quarter 23rd September 2019
With Bordeaux and Burgundy offering lacklustre returns, the trading focus has moved to Piedmont, Champagne and the Rhone Valley
The second quarter of 2019 was largely tranquil for the fine wine market, with trade bobbing along nicely but no Read More >
Global capital flows into real estate: transparency is a key to inward investment 20th September 2019
Cross-border transactions now account for a third of property deals, and the most transparent markets hold the most appeal
Investment in many mature real estate markets is booming and this has been the case for about ten years now. At the Read More >
PCL property performing well despite twists and turns of Brexit 20th September 2019
On 28 August, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced he––with the Queen’s approval––was going to suspend Parliament between 10 September and 14 October.
The decision has been seen by many as an attempt to move the UK one step Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th September 2019
Why did the Fed Ease?
Last night’s Fed decision was anything but unanimous with 10 of the 17 members dissenting – views ranging from no cut to a larger ease. Powell described a “solid outlook” for the US economy but warned of Read More >
Who owns the sky? 20th September 2019
It’s not such a crazy question. For the last hundred years or so – as long as aircraft have been an important part of economies – governments have claimed ownership of the airspace above our heads. Individuals or corporations may own land Read More >
Brunel Building Launch – Wednesday 18th September 2019 19th September 2019
On Wednesday 19th September, The Property Chronicle attended the launch of the much anticipated Brunel Building, the latest building designed by Derwent London.
The Brunel Building is an architectural landmark for Paddington, providing a Read More >
Why Iran is risking war with Saudi Arabia and America 19th September 2019
Although the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for last week’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing plant, the audacious operation looks like the handiwork of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is Read More >
The case for withholding Royal Assent 18th September 2019
Last Monday, the Government capitulated to the Opposition’s attempt to bind its hands on Brexit via Hilary Benn’s bill (now the European Union (Withdrawal) (No.2) Act 2019) mandating it to seek and agree an extension of Article 50.
Having Read More >
“Promises Made! Promises Kept?” Links between Trump’s Economic Policy and County Level Unemployment Rates 18th September 2019
In the 34 months since November of 2016 the U.S. unemployment rate has declined -1.2% through August 2019. Across the counties that President Trump campaigned in, the average decline has been roughly -1% (through July 2019).
In Read More >
Working out WeWork 18th September 2019
As We Co, the parent of flexible office provider WeWork, prepares to now IPO later this year after postponing its September launch, many in the property industry are still struggling to define WeWork: is it a competitor, a client or just a Read More >
After U.S. Flop, Real Estate Brokerage Purplebricks Faces Mounting Headwinds In The U.K. 17th September 2019
Tech-driven real estate brokerage Purplebricks released its 2019 results last week. After a failed U.S. expansion, the core U.K. business is still growing and remains profitable, but is facing headwinds in a soft property market. The results Read More >
GOING OUT OF STYLE INTO FACTOR INVESTING 17th September 2019
We all know the classic four categories on the risk-return graph, Core, Core+, Value-Add and Opportunistic. These investment strategies are widely used, but are also arbitrary as investors define Core, Core+, Value-Add and Opportunistic Read More >
Residential property management is broken 16th September 2019
Proper regulation is needed, while far-reaching leasehold reform must accompany changes to the building safety regime
Residential property management is broken and the regulation of managing agents long overdue. Not just from a financial Read More >
White Collar Factory: the best of old and new 13th September 2019
Derwent London, the company I have worked for over the last 34 years, have built a variety of office buildings over that period. So, on this occasion, I’ve decided to choose one of them and add it to my list of favourite buildings.
I Read More >
Stroll your troubles away 13th September 2019
A good walk is a tonic, but it must meet certain criteria – and here’s one that ticks all the boxes
There’s plenty of evidence linking walking with wellbeing. It’s partly about giving the lungs a good workout and unleashing those Read More >
The case for reforming wealth taxes 13th September 2019
With an election on the way, all parties will be looking for ways to fund their pledges. The IPPR has a proposal that should appeal to parties on both the left and the right: reform our tax system so that those who earn their income from wealth Read More >
IS BREXIT A BLESSING IN DISGUISE FOR THE UK’S REAL ESTATE MARKET? 12th September 2019
By Richard Barkham, Global Chief Economist; Neil Blake, Global Head of Forecasting; Wei Luo, Associate Director, CBRE.
The UK’s long-term average share of global real estate investment is about 13%. Until early 2016, the level of UK Read More >
Why I became a sterling bull last week for a 1.30 cable target 12th September 2019
The political drama in Westminster last week was pure Sophocles, as nemesis gutted Boris Johnson’s hubris. Boris Johnson’s agenda for a “do or die” hard Brexit was killed by two humiliating defeats in the House of Commons parliamentary Read More >
Where will a general election be won and lost? 11th September 2019
The House of Commons has again opted against providing the two-thirds support needed to hold an early general election. However, it will be hard to avoid one for much longer. And although the outcome remains far from clear at this stage, it’s Read More >
Access-ibility 11th September 2019
Since the 1950s, accessibility using some form of time/distance measure has been considered a determinant of land use in American city and transportation planning theory and practice. But, due to the functionalist orientation of education and Read More >
Should we be anxious about the future of capitalism? 11th September 2019
There has been no shortage of serious-sounding warnings about the profound threats to capitalism in recent years. I would know. I’ve written some myself — including for this website.
You don’t have to look far to find cause for alarm. Read More >
Four heartbeats of global finance in September 2019 10th September 2019
Wall Street folklore contends that four data points reflect the interrelationship between the price of money, interest rates, the price of currency (US Dollar Index), the price of gold and price of crude oil, the four heartbeats of global Read More >
The truth is out about the real cost of HS2 10th September 2019
So now we know for sure. Thanks to Grant Shapps, Westminster’s biggest open secret is finally out there. HS2 is actually going to cost considerably more than we were told four years ago.
For us at the TaxPayers’ Alliance, this is a Read More >
Illiberal and economically illiterate – Germany’s new housing policy 6th September 2019
With the support of the Atlas Network, CapX is publishing a new series of essays on the theme of Illiberalism in Europe, looking at the different threats to liberal economies and societies across the continent, from populism to Read More >
Feed the world – with GM crops 5th September 2019
Last week South Australia announced it would be lifting its ban on the growth of genetically modified organisms (GMO). Starting December 1st, 2019 farmers in this state will have the ability to choose what types of crops they want to grow. The Read More >
Don’t forget the role capitalism played in winning World War II 4th September 2019
Today marks 80 years since the UK and France declared war on Nazi Germany following the invasion of Poland. Much is rightly said about the heroism of our armed forces, and the doughty attitude of civilians. Perhaps less heralded is the way Read More >
Why a points-based immigration system is a bad idea 4th September 2019
Unskilled immigration is a problem, we are told.
People argue about how to restrict unskilled immigration, and by how much: lots of people favour points-based immigration systems so we can restrict unskilled immigration while continuing to Read More >
John McDonnell’s housing policy is little more than theft 3rd September 2019
John McDonnell’s latest bright idea is that private sector tenants should have the right to buy the homes for below the market price. As perfect an example of McDonnell’s incapacity to think through an economic problem would be difficult to Read More >
Post-Brexit priorities for low-income voters in deprived areas across the UK 3rd September 2019
What do low-income voters in deprived areas want post-Brexit? How can political parties unlock opportunities for people on low incomes?
Three years after the EU Referendum in 2016, our political system is experiencing a crisis of Read More >
The influence of Foxtons on London Estate Agency 30th August 2019
40 odd years ago, Jon Hunt hit upon the idea of shaking up the Estate Agency business, creating an organisation that was very much out of his mould. I don't know him per se but by all accounts he is a dominant individual with an acute Read More >
Can Modular Homes Solve the UK Housing Crisis? 30th August 2019
With shorter construction times and cheaper manufacturing costs, are prefabricated homes set to become a trend that developers and investors alike should pay attention? The REalyst investigates whether modular homes are indeed becoming valuable Read More >
Berlin rent freeze draft likely to be watered down, Vonovia around 15% discount to YE NAV 30th August 2019
Whilst many of us were baking in in the sunshine on bank holiday Monday, the Berlin Senate cooked up its freeze for residential rents in Germany’s capital. That rocked the sector on Monday, neutered by a dead cat bounce yesterday, and steady Read More >
Is ‘local housing for local people’ a good strategy? 29th August 2019
“So many of the parishes in our district are merrily approving more houses around their village,” an official from Oxfordshire fumed to me last month, “and that’s against Council policy!” I had to pinch myself: living in London, it’s Read More >
Still going strong: Singapore REITs 29th August 2019
A continuing upward trend makes this a good defensive asset class amid global uncertainty
Early this summer the FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts index broke through the 875 level after 10 years of resistance, with a Read More >
Phoenix from the Flames 28th August 2019
As the global economy slips into the deep pit of despair, many market commentators are crying out for global central banks to wake-up and save the day. While many are intensely commenting on policymakers in Washington and the Global Trade Read More >
How to value football club businesses 23rd August 2019
(Oliver is joint-owner of Maidstone Utd FC, Director of Brive Rugby Club in French Top 14 and recent Board Member of The National League.)
Right now there is a heated debate on social media about the ill-health of many football clubs in the Read More >
Regulation is Coming 22nd August 2019
Last week saw the long- trailed publication of the Regulation of Property Agents Working Group report, introducing a raft of proposals to regulate sales, letting and leasehold managing agents in what has until now been essentially a collection Read More >
Can Corbyn get lucky? 21st August 2019
Successful political parties are coalitions of interests. The Labour Party was founded as the Labour Representation Committee in 1900 to bring the socialist movement together under one banner to fight parliamentary Read More >
Sajid Javid is right – tinkering with stamp duty will not solve the housing crisis 20th August 2019
Newspaper headlines over the weekend had suggested that the new Chancellor, Sajid Javid, was planning to switch the liability for stamp duty from house buyers to sellers. Thankfully, Javid has now quashed this story in no Read More >
Land of the long smug retirement 20th August 2019
When winter bites, there are few better places to escape to than New Zealand. I’m just not too sure about the names of the sports teams. ‘Tall Blacks’ and ‘White Caps’ anyone?
A degree of smugness accompanies those who leave these Read More >
Abolition of Section 21: Tipping the balance? 19th August 2019
In April of this year, Government made clear its intention to consult on the abolition of Section 21 of the Housing Act 1988, more commonly known as ‘no fault evictions’. Its stated objectives; to ensure that tenants have the security they Read More >
A different form of sporting heritage: the language of sport 19th August 2019
How sporting terms enter the mainstream
In 1976, a Canberra cricketer who had moved there from Western Australia complained about the quality of the local pitches, which were not like those in his native Perth where “the ball bounced truly Read More >
How Does WeWork Make Money 19th August 2019
How did WeWork get such a high valuation if its making such big losses?
After some debate in the office and lots of commentary from various talking heads about the subject, I sat down and read the company’s S-1 filing and kept reading Read More >
Rise of the second-hand book market 16th August 2019
How going online has restored the value of second-hand books
As a book dealer, I would like to respond to an article published on the BBC website on 28 December 2018, ‘The booming trade in second-hand books’. The business reporter, Lucy Read More >
The wine market is slow – but stirring 15th August 2019
Burgundy continues its slide, but Bordeaux might be coming into its own.
In the same way the media in March was completely dominated by Brexit, so was the wine market. Instead of squabbling and jostling for position, however, the main players Read More >
Hong Kong is going to cost China 14th August 2019
Over the last few weeks of protests in Hong Kong, culminating in the violence in the Legco building last week, most people have rightly concluded that:
at best, the end of the ‘one country two systems’ m.o. will be Read More >
How fake news is hindering farming 14th August 2019
Pesticides and GM crops: the facts
We live in a world of instant communication and 24-hour news, where the power of social media alone means any story can be transmitted at the press of a button. Such technology is both exciting and fantastic Read More >
Peter Zumthor: A controversial figure 13th August 2019
Uncompromising in his vision, architect Peter Zumthor faces his toughest challenge to date
Not long after his celebrated thermal baths were completed, Peter Zumthor, a reclusive Swiss architect, gave a rare lecture at the Royal Institute of Read More >
Peeping Toms at the Tate Modern 12th August 2019
Those who live in glass houses may not have enjoyed a recent verdict. But legal protection for privacy has not been weakened – quite the reverse.
You will probably have read in the newspapers about the flat owners in the all-glass Neo Read More >
A Japanese zoning system is no solution to England’s housing crisis 9th August 2019
The Centre for Cities recently suggested England should end its housing crisis by ‘turning Japanese’ and copying their planning system.
One can see the attraction. Japan uses a system of zoning where the government sets out in Read More >
Buying Banksy 9th August 2019
Challenging the opinion that only the wealthiest can buy Banksy art
Banksy’s art hit the headlines in October 2018 when a piece of artwork self-destructed in the midst of an auction. Since then, demand for the anonymous artist’s work has Read More >
Why Industrial Agriculture is Crucial to Fighting Climate Change 8th August 2019
What poor countries really need more of is supermarkets.
That’s the conclusion to draw from the latest leaked report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Of course, it’s not what the usual environmentalist suspects are Read More >
Architectural character on the big screen 8th August 2019
Architectural character on the big screen
As revealed in the last edition of The Property Chronicle, it’s pretty clear that in Hollywood movies of the past, architects have traditionally been cast as the Good Guys: creative, socially Read More >
Thatcher or Trump – the big choice awaiting the Right 7th August 2019
Just days in to the Johnson Premiership and there should be little doubt where we are heading. Dominic Cummings may revel in his contempt for Westminster Village groupthink, but this time the Prime Minister’s special adviser might have to Read More >
The strange business of modern farming 7th August 2019
Farms are peculiar assets. Returns are undeniable – but inaccessible. And subsidies, it seems, only make things worse.
Farms are capital-intensive businesses, with land, buildings, fixed equipment, working capital for labour, livestock, Read More >
Another downturn is looming – and UK banks are nowhere near ready 6th August 2019
The Bank of England’s latest round of bank stress tests in November 2018 painted a reassuring picture of bank resilience. The message was that the UK banking system is now so strong that it can come through another crisis that is more severe Read More >
Real estate and sustainability – the moral imperative 6th August 2019
Why the industry must be an active force in driving change
“Sustainable investment is about the responsibility and potential the real estate industry holds to reach climate and environmental sustainability targets. In a rapidly urbanising Read More >
All change in the countryside 2nd August 2019
Farming in the UK is changing faster than anyone realises. There will be winners – and losers…
The UK farming industry is facing a period of radical change that most farmers are underestimating both in extent and speed. There will be Read More >
Green infrastructure means business 1st August 2019
Why we need to encourage innovation and holistic solutions to the challenges facing real estate
“Silo busters unite!” is becoming a slogan here at the Real Estate Institute. We contest that few, if any, of the major problems that Read More >
Hong Kong may be destined to become another Shanghai 31st July 2019
Having spent the first part of July in Shanghai and Hong Kong the differences between these Chinese mega cities are stark.
Shanghai with 23 million people dwarfs Hong Kong’s population of 7.5 million. It is also less crowded and Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 31st July 2019
Weebles Wobble but they don’t fall down..”
In the headlines this morning
Blain’s Financial Porridge Podcaston Website (Subscribe to Audioboom podcast or go via Spotify or iTunes (Other channels Read More >
How the debt markets have changed since 2014 31st July 2019
A five-year review of the real estate debt demand
Twenty-nineteen marks five years since Laxfield Capital, a commercial property lending company, released their first report on the demand for debt in the UK property market. Such a report, Read More >
Blockchain leaves the blocks 30th July 2019
But first, the industry must digitise
News broke in March 2019 of the first successful global blockchain real estate transaction. It included participants from established organisations, such as Ashurst, Baker McKenzie, Barclays, Clifford Read More >
More borrowing, lower taxes? A plan for Rishi Sunak at the Treasury 29th July 2019
As the new Chief Secretary to the Treasury (CST), Rishi Sunak has one of the toughest jobs in government. The CST’s main responsibility is the control of public expenditure – even more challenging than usual given the political Read More >
Life on Mars: a guide to the next real estate frontier 29th July 2019
With the recent interest in Mars’ mineral resources, how far are we really from realising interplanetary living?
I’ll admit, I did listen to the Bowie classic to get some inspiration for this article. Although the lyrics seemed to be Read More >
Robert Jenrick – the quiet radical now in charge of housing 26th July 2019
Robert Jenrick, the new Secretary of State for Housing, wrote a striking call in 2017 to boost home ownership by building homes on government land and selling them at cost to the under-40s of that area. In the South East, that could mean a 75% Read More >
Life after Downing Street: What Prime Ministers do next 26th July 2019
As she exits the political stage pursued by a blond bear, Theresa May’s mind will inevitably turn to the question of ‘what next’?
As for the immediate future, she might follow John Major’s example. Hours after losing the top job in Read More >
When the skies fall silent 26th July 2019
Despite the best possible conditions, hundreds of species of bird are dying out before our very eyes. It may be too late for some – but action can still save others.
It is possible that part of my life’s work in conservation on the Read More >
Boris Johnson must get behind Britain’s internet economy 26th July 2019
No one wants the internet to be a source of harm. Our industry has always carried with it the optimism with which the internet was born. The ability of a single individual to speak to the whole world, to be connected with the all the learning Read More >
Reflecting on the magical sporting drama – 2019 Cricket World Cup 25th July 2019
Never in my life. Will I again witness such moments of utterly magical sporting drama. If a scriptwriter had penned the conclusion to the 2019 Cricket World Cup, they would have been laughed out of court. And told to pull themselves together. Read More >
Why are we modern? 25th July 2019
“In general, life is better than it ever has been,” P. J. O’Rourke wrote in All the Trouble in the World. “If you think that, in the past, there was some golden age of pleasure and plenty to which you would, if you were able, Read More >
Anti-HS2 hysteria misses the point 25th July 2019
The hidden benefits of Britain’s new railway are vast. The only problem is they’re hidden
In recent months there has been no shortage of ill-thought through articles in the British press urging the cancellation of High Speed 2, a Read More >
Anatomy of the next crude oil price crash! 24th July 2019
Brent crude oil plunged almost 4% from $67 to $63.50 a barrel after both President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo signaled progress in reducing geopolitical tensions with Iran in the Gulf. Iran Foreign Minister Javed Zarif's Read More >
Boris – what Real Estate Investors can expect 24th July 2019
Boris Johnson will survive the first hundred days of his Premiership if he delivers a Brexit divorce deal. There will soon follow opportunities for other events - a Budget, a Queen’s Speech, a General Election – to set out detailed plans Read More >
The big four – REIT dangers to watch out for 24th July 2019
Common difficulties and how to avoid them
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are a favourite asset class for income seeking investors looking for regular dividends. However, there are a number of difficulties regularly experienced by Read More >
A bold plan to renew home ownership in Britain 23rd July 2019
Britain’s housing crisis is uniquely severe. We build houses more slowly than anyone else, we have seen a fastest house price rise than any developed country, and our homes are the most expensive houses compared to the average salary.
Quite Read More >
European markets: an update on Spain post-2019 election 23rd July 2019
With the PSOE coming out on top, Spanish prospects are only looking up
Pedro Sanchez’ gamble to call a snap election has paid off. His PSOE (the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party) has become the biggest party in parliament, with its share Read More >
Populism vs prosperity? 22nd July 2019
Populism is in the ascendancy in today’s political environment. Loosely defined as any ideology that separates ‘the people’ from a ‘corrupt elite’, populism has existed in various forms over the last century. While it’s often Read More >
McDonnell’s startling sterling claims 19th July 2019
One of the many problems with John McDonnell is that he doesn’t understand how markets work.
His latest outlandish claim is that Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister will increase the value of the pound. And this really, really, Read More >
The millennial shift in US homebuying 19th July 2019
Homeownership in the U.S. is still being held back by two key demographic and lifestyle trends.
The millennial generation has delayed marrying and delayed starting families, both traditional trigger points for moving out of multifamily rental Read More >
50 years on, who really still believes people the moon landings were faked? 18th July 2019
Fifty years ago today, Neil Armstrong, Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin and Michael Collins took off from Cape Canaveral in a Saturn V rocket as tall as a football pitch is long. Five days later they stepped out onto the surface of the moon, the first Read More >
Bickle’s captivating Irish jig at Glenveagh 18th July 2019
Justin Bickle, formerly a Managing Director in Oaktree’s European Principal Group, tells Property Chronicle how turning around English National Ballet gave him the confidence to set up one of Ireland’s biggest housebuilders.
Justin Bickle Read More >
Are we drifting into recession? 17th July 2019
Figure 1 shows the CBRE ‘real time’ G7 economy tracker, made up of the best and most timely monthly economic data.
The main developed economies (U.S.A., Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, U.K.) known as the G7 have slowed Read More >
Commercial real estate lending is a disastrous black hole – and now we have the proof 17th July 2019
New research shows that lending at the end of a cycle always leads to disaster. The industry just can't seem to help itself
The CRE property lending industry seems to be magnetically attracted to accelerating its lending activity towards the Read More >
Thinking outside the box 16th July 2019
How forging a new path in the property market can reap big rewards
I have several guidelines to which I have mostly adhered when investing. Amongst others, this includes targeting high yielding properties: properties with sustainable income Read More >
What to look out for if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister 16th July 2019
Unless there’s an extraordinary upset in the Tory leadership election, Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister next week. What kind of government are we going to get?
Could this be the start of something extraordinarily significant, Read More >
Time to short the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Indices? 16th July 2019
The S&P 500 index trades at 2990 as I write. The risk-reward calculus on the broad index no longer flashes a buy signal to me. The economic data around the world has deteriorated at an accelerating pace, as the decline in global PMI’s, 9% Read More >
Don’t be fooled – big business loves the nanny state 12th July 2019
There is a big difference between being pro-freedom and being pro-business, and the public health debate illustrates this point very well.
Whilst advocates of authoritarian ‘nanny-state’ programmes often like to paint a picture of a Read More >
The Bitcoin madness will end in tears – once again! 12th July 2019
The crypto-bulls have regained their mojo now that Bitcoin is at $11600, though $2000 below its most recent peak. While financial history tells me parabolic moves always end in tears, the current euphoria does not surprise me. Facebook’s Libra Read More >
Business must do more to shape the politics of immigration after May 12th July 2019
Whichever candidate takes the keys to Number 10 later this month, the change of Conservative leader and Prime Minister looks set to mark the end of the net migration target.
As politics move on, those looking to advocate for a fresh approach Read More >
An incoherent proposal 12th July 2019
Most large funds hate development risk – but there are real success stories out there. You just have to avoid the more spurious schemes…
Monday morning’s first call is from an old market chum asking if I’ll meet his latest client. He Read More >
Will the Euro/dollar cross rate continue to fall in July? 11th July 2019
Nonfarm payrolls rose to 224,000 in June, the highest since January, thus popping the bond market consensus that the Federal Reserve would turn ultra-dovish at the July FOMC. Average hourly earnings are up 3.1% on an annual basis, another nail Read More >
Algorithms are the future of shopping – but at what cost? 11th July 2019
The internet has opened a huge window onto the range of products and services available to consumers, and revolutionised the way we purchase them. In the UK alone, E-commerce sales have rocketed up fifty-six per cent from £375.1 billion Read More >
The summer of discontent 10th July 2019
Widespread disaffection, income-inequality, Brexit and Donald Trump – will it get better?
I sense that summer 2019 in London is going to be a disruptive hell.
Climate change protests in April were both extraordinarily polite and Read More >
Ruffer Investment Review – July 9th July 2019
When the Governor of the Bank of England speaks, it is always worth listening to, and he is on to something when he writes about market liquidity; he is surely right to flag the dangers of the narrow exit doors in a crowded investment room. We Read More >
Why less council housing can help tackle unemployment 9th July 2019
In some quarters the proposed solution to Britain’s housing problems is lots and lots more social – ie below market rate – housing.
For the more extreme, this should mean local councils building, owning and renting out the dwellings. As Read More >
Work worries: get walking 8th July 2019
When I stepped out of the lift and onto the trading floor at Hoare Govett in Heron House 35 years ago, I am certain that employee wellbeing was not at the top of the senior partner’s agenda. Whilst the stresses and strains of the Read More >
The Hong Kong property bubble is about to pop! 8th July 2019
Governor Chris Patten and the Prince of Wales watched forlornly as the Union Jack slid down its flagpole for the last time as Hong Kong morphed from Her Majesty’s Crown Colony to a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of the People’s Republic Read More >
Silver linings in the property market 8th July 2019
A ray of hope for the central London property market
The prime central London market has been a tough place over the last year, with a continuing decline in both flats and houses. Against the trend of the past four years, flats in 2018 Read More >
Rental Demographics are Changing in the Suburbs 8th July 2019
We’ve sized up the opportunity in the suburbs and analysed the resurgence of the commuter town. In this article, the REalyst weighs in on the facts and figures, looking at how suburban demographics are shaping the rental market on Read More >
Political instability in the UK – Response to Andrew Hawkins 5th July 2019
How Brexit and the minority government pose a problem for international investors
Three factors continue to cause political instability in the UK.
The first and most important is that Britain is being run by a minority Read More >
Is there really a ‘problem’ with robots taking our jobs? 4th July 2019
That the robots are coming for all our jobs is entirely true. That this is a problem is less clear – after all, we’ve been trying to kill off jobs since we first started automating anything at all by replacing fingernails with knapped flint. Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 4th July 2019
“I know of no country in which there is so little independence of mind and real freedom of discussion as in America.”
In the headlines this morning
Subscribe to podcast
Happy birthday America! This morning’s intro-quote is over Read More >
Entropy or evolution: the UK’s changing political landscape 4th July 2019
To be sure, UK politics are in flux. A vocal huddle of mostly Remain protesters, and occasionally Leavers, have occupied a spot opposite the Houses of Parliament for the past two years. Voters have voiced at the ballot box their anger at the Read More >
Thatcher – my part in her downfall… 3rd July 2019
Listening to the Today programme a voice from my past comes over the airwaves. Lord, Kenneth of old, Baker was explaining how the toppling of Theresa compared to the Tory original sin of Mrs Thatcher’s removal in November Read More >
Time for an intervention in UK politics 3rd July 2019
As the current political impasse continues, the situation bears a resemblance to the events of 1931. As King George V once did, will the Queen advise?
On 24 August 1931, King George V called for a meeting at Buckingham Palace. There attended Read More >
Market Share: High Street estate agents crush online firms 2nd July 2019
New figures released show High Street estate agents taking an increasingly large market share as online operators continue to crumble.
According to the fortnightly update from The Advisory, a consultancy that monitors housing market Read More >
Is the 2018 Bordeaux a classic? 2nd July 2019
The wine world’s spin doctors are up to their usual hype. But last year’s weather has made for a fascinating vintage.
It’s that time of year again, when the latest claret vintage roars into view. There is the usual trumpeting, words Read More >
Experiencing the architectural highs and lows of South America 1st July 2019
Much as I believe in Samuel Johnson’s maxim, that a man bored of London is bored of life, I still find an escape from London invigorating. It offers clarity as well as new insights. Accordingly I recently escaped with a few friends for an Read More >
What next for bonds, gold and the dollar? 28th June 2019
US equities markets went ballistic after the Federal Reserve confirmed Wall Street consensus that it will cut the overnight borrowing rate by 50 basis points if the economy weakens. This did not surprise me. The current Fed Funds target rate is Read More >
The experiments of youth: unpacking the complexities of China’s real estate market 28th June 2019
With so many factors to consider, the division between doomsayers and optimists has never been so large
There seems to have always been two starkly different perspectives about China's real estate market. For years, doomsayers have warned of Read More >
Increasing number of large-scale landlords as buy to let amateurs quit 27th June 2019
A new survey by one of the sector’s most respected lenders, Paragon, suggests large scale landlords are now a bigger force in the buy to let sector following the exit of some small amateur landlords.
Paragon’s survey is small - just 200 Read More >
Purplebricks isn’t dead – it’s dangerous 27th June 2019
Rumours of the agency’s demise are premature. And even if such disruptors fail, the fortunes they are spending on marketing could change customers’ expectations forever.
If you believe everything you read in the media, you could be Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 26th June 2019
“France has no friends, only interests…”
In the headlines this morning.
When the Fed Chairman has to say he’s “insulated from short-term political pressures”, then you know his ears are bleeding from a full up-to 11 Trump rant. Read More >
How trade can help rebalance the post-Brexit economy 26th June 2019
It is no secret that the United Kingdom’s economy is imbalanced. London and the South East are head and shoulders above the country’s other regions with respect to economic indicators like gross value added per capita and median real Read More >
Let’s talk about homegrown sparkling wine 26th June 2019
The Property Chronicle speaks to Jim Nolan, CEO and founder of Black Dog Hill
Operating since 2007, Black Dog Hill is a family-run vineyard in Ditchling, Sussex. The Nolan family didn’t have to travel far to find one of the world’s Read More >
Are we doing better than we think? 25th June 2019
It is commonplace to say that the pace of technological change is speeding up. From Twitter to online shopping our everyday lives are, apparently, being transformed.
One of the central puzzles of modern economics is that this change is not Read More >
The end of the UK interest rate cycle 25th June 2019
Plus, reassessing the relationship between UK interest rates and REITs
The perceived wisdom has always been that reducing, and indeed low, UK interest rates are good for real estate in general. Equally, UK real estate investment trusts Read More >
Migration perils and unrequited love 24th June 2019
The chiffchaff, willow warbler and wood warbler are not easily distinguished from one another, except, as discovered by the curate of Selbourne, Gilbert White, at the end of the 18thcentury, by their respective songs.
To the casual birder Read More >
Reading the small print on subletting 24th June 2019
Plus, is the AirBnB boom coming to an end?
I write this camping beneath the canvas cover of a tent – a novel experience for me. I should add, though, the healthy caveat that I am glamping. Essentially, a luxurious form of camping. Camping Read More >
Can REITs keep up with the current demands of UK shopping centres? 21st June 2019
In the face of declining retail property values and highly leveraged companies, a new structure might be needed
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have been a huge success globally, providing an income-producing, liquid, tax-efficient Read More >
Jumping through hoops 20th June 2019
Why high-net-worth individuals are struggling to secure mortgages
It might seem counterintuitive to some, but high-net-worth (HNW) individuals often face difficulties when securing mortgages.
In February 2019, Butterfield Read More >
Emoov and Countrywide merge: it could have happened… 19th June 2019
Emoov and Countrywide: what a pair, observers might say.
They present a tale of two failures - although, in the case of Countrywide, it’s still theoretically possible that victory could be snatched from the actively-snapping jaws of Read More >
Saudi Arabia and the calculus of petro power 19th June 2019
It is impossible to analyze the real time dynamics of the global oil market without a grasp of the myriad domestic/regional economic, diplomatic and national security dilemmas that govern the formulation of Saudi Arabia’s oil pricing strategy. Read More >
Hollywood’s apocalypse obsession ignores the reality of human progress 19th June 2019
On his immensely popular HBO show last Friday, the host of Real Time with Bill Maher observed, “Not every movie set in the future has to be a super clean utopia or a smouldering post apocalypse.” “Isn’t there something in Read More >
Did government covertly restrict mortgage availability? 19th June 2019
Post war British economic policy and house-building
Macroeconomic policy frameworks followed by governments have definite impacts on all sectors of the economy including the housing sector. Post Second World War the British government was Read More >
The Pakistani rupee has now tanked to my 160 strategic target against the US dollar 18th June 2019
I had forecast a collapse in the Pakistani rupee to a 160 – 180 range against the US dollar and a plunge in the Karachi stock market index to 32000 after PMLN Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was sacked by the Supreme Court at the behest of the Read More >
The multifaceted problem of wealth transfer 18th June 2019
Politics, emigration and the modern family are only a few of the challenges of wealth and succession planning today
There is no lack of data on the vast, and growing, amounts of wealth set to be passed from generation to generation in the Read More >
The changing face of retail 17th June 2019
With so much negativity around CVAs, are they the only answer?
Increased footfall, falling unemployment and rising wages meant that the stars should have aligned for the UK’s high street retailers in the first quarter of 2019. Yet Read More >
An interview with Richard James 14th June 2019
Tim Green speaks to Richard James, Chief Financial Officer of Savills Investment Management
Richard James is the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Savills Investment Management (Savills IM), the wholly owned but independent investment Read More >
What would happen if a large object hit the Earth? 14th June 2019
So that we don’t take Real Estate, economics and investing too seriously and to keep our daily lives in perspective, here is our very own Property Chronicle NASA Astrophysicist and his column 'Nothing Really Matters'.
An asteroid for Read More >
The Property Chronicle Summer Issue 14th June 2019
Watch the video trailer for the latest edition of our magazine. The new issue is out now and includes a selection of brilliant articles from our expert contributors.
Subscribe now!
The latest issue of the magazine includes:
World’s Read More >
Is Sainsbury’s worth its heavily discounted share price? 13th June 2019
Poor old Sainsbury’s. Its share price is currently lower than at any time over the last 25 years and appears to be in free-fall.
But how can this be? Surely Sainsbury’s is a defensive dividend payer with a long record of unbroken dividend Read More >
Quoted German propcos – a brief history 12th June 2019
Back in 2007, left behind by the likes of the US, the UK and (shock horror!) France, the German government moved with its customary celerity to create its own REIT sector. A year before, and two years after Emmanuel Valavanis and I had set up Read More >
The Dramatic Slowdown in Germany Threatens Another Euro Crisis 12th June 2019
‘If membership of the Eurozone had been confined to the original ‘Deutschemark Block’ - Germany, France, Holland, Belgium and Luxembourg which met the Euro’s initial convergence criteria - the Euro could have been a success. However Read More >
What next for the Uber, Beyond Meat and Luckin IPO deals? 12th June 2019
Thanks to the orchestrated bullishness of a dozen Wall Street sell side analysts and the mother of all short covering rallies, Uber has managed to claw back its losses from 38 to its IPO offer price of $45 though the latest management disaster Read More >
A defining moment for infrastructure 12th June 2019
More people. More cities. More buildings. More infrastructure.
Infrastructure is turning out to be an asset class that, while appearing mostly immeuble, is fundamentally different from real estate requiring, among many things, strong and Read More >
Real Estate Market Cycle Monitor: First Quarter 2019 Analysis 11th June 2019
The Physical Market Cycle Analysis of 5 Property Types in 54 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
The economic expansion has been solid with 1Q GDP growth at 3.1%, which also drove continued job and wage growth so far in 2019. Trade Read More >
A sense of the sublime 10th June 2019
Unusual, yet awe-inspiring, the Ronchamp chapel has to been seen to be believed
I must confess that I am slightly privileged by the fact that, working constantly with architects, I am occasionally offered trips to see buildings of interest, Read More >
Getting started – A life in Real Estate 7th June 2019
In the following monthly series of articles Oliver Ash tells the story of his initial steps in the field of real estate, how this took him overseas to a new life, how he navigated the financial crises of 1991 and 2009, how real estate operations Read More >
How Britain’s housing market has created a mobility crisis 7th June 2019
The dynamics of the UK’s housing crisis are well-documented: millions prevented from getting on the housing ladder, sky-high rents for often woefully inadequate accommodation and, underpinning it all, a planning system seemingly designed to Read More >
A US-UK trade deal could be just the tonic the NHS needs 7th June 2019
President Trump’s visit has been the excuse for another burst of scaremongering about what a US-UK trade deal might mean for the NHS. You might expect dire warnings about ‘profits before people’ or ‘the Americanisation of healthcare’ Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 6th June 2019
“Every unresolved problem eventually creates something worse to solve it…”
In the headlines this morning...
I switched on the TV this morning and watched Naga sitting on the Brek-drek couch in Normandy, then a cut-away to a Piper at Read More >
China’s Winning the War that the U.S. is Ignoring 6th June 2019
Have you been to The Bahamas?
I was just in beautiful Nassau. And there’s no description for those waters other than 'exquisite.'
In fact, it's hard to take your eyes off of the stunning array of blues and greens, while you breathe in Read More >
A projected trading range for Citigroup shares in 2019 5th June 2019
Citigroup, the third largest US money center bank, owns subsidiaries in Latin America whose pedigrees go back almost a century. For instance, Banamex, Citi’s subsidiary in Mexico, is the second largest corporate/retail bank south of the Rio Read More >
Adam Smith and the trouble with peer-to-peer lending 4th June 2019
One cynical – but useful – view of modern technology is that it allows us to play through the scams and mistakes of the last few millennia at warp speed. Bitcoin and associated cryptos have gone through every fraud that anyone’s been able Read More >
Washington Monthly Diary 4th June 2019
Thoughts for the month ahead: Yipes! President Trump shocked the markets on May 10th by doubling down on tariffs against all Chinese imports. Last Friday, he again shocked everyone by threatening 5% tariffs, starting June 10th, Read More >
The earth has its problems, but a lack of resources is not one of them 3rd June 2019
“Is it OK to still have children?”
That’s a question that bothers the environmental consciousness of Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Comedian Bill Maher thinks that he has the answer. “The great under-discussed factor in Read More >
The Euros 2019 31st May 2019
No you have not missed a footie championship. The heading refers to the EU Parliamentary Elections last week, in which I stood and following which have been returned to Brussels as an MEP, for the Brexit Party, representing London.
I Read More >
The real problem with tech companies that go public 30th May 2019
If investor confidence was affected by the stock market slides of ‘Red October’, it seemed to have returned with the arrival of spring 2019 and a highly anticipated series of IPOs. Following Lyft’s going public in March, around $5.1 Read More >
UK commercial property could stay the course through waves of uncertainty 30th May 2019
Waves of political and economic uncertainty have become something of a norm for markets in recent years. Against a backdrop of significant events – from US-China trade tension to Brexit - investors are taking extra caution with their asset Read More >
2 Preferred Possibilities That Might Be Worth a Look 29th May 2019
As you might very well know, real estate investment trusts, also known as REITs, are legally required to pay out no less than 90% of their taxable income. That’s how they’re structured to operate in the U.S., and they’re not allowed to Read More >
The Resurgence of Commuter Towns 27th May 2019
The number of people leaving the capital hit a 10-year high in 2017, with 292,000 people deciding that they had enough of the Big Smoke. With much talk of London affordability and sizing-up opportunities in the suburbs, are we seeing a Read More >
Taking Weyerhaeuser to the Woodshed 24th May 2019
By Brad Thomas and Michael Boyd
Sometimes, you’ve got to switch it up to keep your portfolio properly diversified. That’s why this isn’t the first time we’ve sung the praises of buying into alternative asset classes.
When people Read More >
It’s time to let Europe go supersonic 24th May 2019
When France built its high-speed rail network, it revolutionised the way we looked at train travel. What takes 4-5 hours by long-distance bus from Brussels to Paris can now be completed in just over an hour with a Thalys train. Dumping slow Read More >
A one-size-fits-all Europe is doomed to failure 23rd May 2019
Fifteen years ago this month, on May 1, 2004, the European Union welcomed eight new member states. The “Eastern Enlargement” saw Eastern European and Baltic countries join the EU. Since then, other countries further to the east like Romania Read More >
Heads you win… tails you win? 22nd May 2019
UK long dated index-linked bond price
Image Source: Ruffer LLP and Bloomberg (UK 2055 index-linked bond)
We live in extraordinary times, and looking at recent political developments, both here and abroad, there is a risk that they Read More >
The Beyond Meat IPO is up 260% in two weeks! 20th May 2019
Despite the global fame of its brand ambassadors Leonardo DiCaprio and Snoop Dog, Alternative faux meat specialist Beyond Meat (symbol BYND) electrified Wall Street with its white-hot IPO. The recent panic in financial markets and rising Read More >
Betting on Retail 17th May 2019
A version of this article first appeared in the May 2019 edition of the Forbes Real Estate Investor.
Every May for the past 20 years, I’ve made a pilgrimage up to Las Vegas. I call it a pilgrimage because it’s a long flight with Read More >
Case Study Houses 17th May 2019
There is often a great desire for the keen student of architecture to see buildings in the flesh rather than as idealized photographic images which are so accessible in books and, especially now, on the internet. So how do you see the Read More >
If life is getting worse then why are we so happy? 17th May 2019
Last year I was asked to give a presentation on the challenges facing Western policymakers. We ranged widely across a depressing set of subjects, from stagnating incomes to inequality, public sector austerity, job insecurity and the rise of Read More >
The fall of Philip Green and the power of disruption 16th May 2019
Few tears will be shed for the disappearance of a considerable portion of Sir Philip Green’s fortune. According to The Sunday Times rich list, his Arcadia empire now has no net value. For many, this will be seen as a timely Read More >
How a million new homes could make the green belt greener 15th May 2019
When Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss made the bold call for one million homes to be built on the green belt, some were quick to point out that such a policy wouldn’t necessarily receive a warm welcome from voters.
Will Tanner, Read More >
The polls point towards a dramatic realignment. Are they right? 15th May 2019
For a year or more after the 2017 election, your columnist’s most frequently asked question from politicians, journalists and many others, was why the polls have remained so stable, in spite of all the political turbulence. That has completely Read More >
Are farmers’ glasses half full or half empty? 14th May 2019
As we look forward over the coming year, British agriculture is having to manage uncertainty – much like any other sector. Britain’s departure from the EU is not the only issue. Farms are also having to take on board the full implications of Read More >
The death of the small European investment manager 13th May 2019
Established talent is being hoovered up – where are all the start-ups vying for their place?
Small real estate investment managers are becoming a critically endangered species across Europe as property investors and international fund Read More >
What explains the wealth explosion? 11th May 2019
Most of the people alive now are incredibly fortunate compared to almost all of their ancestors. According to the World Bank, less than 10 per cent of the world’s population is now living in absolute poverty, at the edge of bare subsistence. Read More >
Control, Alt, Data: do we really understand the technology and data that will soon control our investment decisions? 10th May 2019
Data is all the buzz around real estate, but how do we categorise it, what data do we need, what are the concerns and why should I care about the content of the local water supply before I consider whether to purchase a real estate Read More >
Derry needs a Marshall Plan 10th May 2019
‘In the early morning the shirt factory horn called women from Creggan, the Moor, and the Bog.’
The lyrics of Phil Coulter’s popular song, ‘The Town I Iove so well,’ evoke a time when Derry, under fire in the early days of Northern Read More >
The Parisian skyscraper that’s a bit like Forrest Gump 10th May 2019
European commercial property has changed a lot in the last 30 years, and this building had a front-row seat for it all
A recent ride up in the lift of Cœur Défense in Paris shouldn’t have been notable. But, for me, it was exciting – Read More >
Uber’s IPO demonstrates the genius of capitalism 9th May 2019
On Friday, Uber will aim to raise as much as $9 billion on the New York Stock Exchange in an IPO that could give the ride-hailing company a market valuation of nearly $90 billion. What is expected to be the biggest US IPO of the year so far has Read More >
Seasonality: Is There a Pattern in Property Development? 9th May 2019
Summary: Last summer saw 44,740 ‘new builds’ constructed in the UK - a 12% increase to the previous quarter. But, does this indicate a seasonal pattern in the property market? The REalyst digs deeper into the data to determine the Read More >
The 2018 stock market correction and the art of being patient 8th May 2019
For most investors 2018 was a year to forget and from peak to trough, the FTSE All-Share index lost about 16% of its starting value.
For many this was too much to take and several subscribers informed me of their decision to exit the stock Read More >
Global Investing 7th May 2019
The Uber IPO is absurdly overvalued on NASDAQ
Uber Technologies goes public in the most controversial and global tech IPO since Facebook seven years ago. Uber bulls claim that the ride sharing colossus is another embryonic Amazon, a Read More >
Emissions targets are the wrong way to solve climate change 5th May 2019
The Committee On Climate Change is the panel of experts that is supposed to give impartial advice, based on the very best science, to the politicians. The problem is that they don’t appear to understand the underlying science being discussed. Read More >
Does an ageing population really mean tax hikes are inevitable? 4th May 2019
How will we cope with the costs of an ageing population? Yesterday, in an article for The Daily Telegraph, David Willetts made the case that this will soon become the issue in British politics.
His piece was prompted by a new report from Read More >
Wanted: A leader for Britain’s shale revolution 4th May 2019
The shale revolution in the United States has been of huge significance. Not only is that nation meeting its own energy needs but it has started exporting both oil and gas. It is astonishing to consider that only a decade ago few had heard of Read More >
Things just got a lot more difficult for commercial landlords 3rd May 2019
A recent Supreme Court case in the UK could have a serious impact on some long-term investors’ plans
Not every legal case is relevant to property investors, but be assured this column is devoted to showcasing only those recent decisions Read More >
The Brexit odds have changed – but perhaps not by as much as we might be led to believe 3rd May 2019
Much has happened since my last Brexit forecast but I reckon that odds on the core Brexit outcomes might have remained remarkably stable. The ‘No Deal’ option has evaporated for the time being while according to hints in the weekend's press, Read More >
Exactly how many stars are in the Milky Way? 2nd May 2019
So that we don’t take Real Estate, economics and investing too seriously and to keep our daily lives in perspective, here is our very own Property Chronicle NASA Astrophysicist and his column 'Nothing Really Matters'.
Based on tons of Read More >
Washington Monthly Diary 1st May 2019
Thought for the month ahead: While many Americans focus on who the Democrats might nominate for president next year, President Trump and China's President Xi hope to conclude a trade deal. The markets are counting on it Read More >
Why we cannot afford to ignore the care crisis 30th April 2019
One of the great success stories of the modern world has been the sustained increases in life expectancy we have seen in recent decades, and which are projected to continue for the foreseeable future.
The fact we are living longer, healthier Read More >
Investing in Polish Commercial Property 4 29th April 2019
How to earn double-digit returns from Polish property
As readers of my articles might recall we have, for many years, been earning double-digit returns from our property investments in Poland. There are many factors which have contributed to Read More >
What would Labour’s plan to scrap ‘slum housing’ actually achieve? 26th April 2019
Labour’s latest housing wheeze is a plan to scrap a scheme that allows office and industrial buildings to be converted into homes without planning permission. This will apparently put an end to “slum housing and rabbit hutch flats” and Read More >
How to sell the free market to millennials 25th April 2019
The millennial generation are ever so different, apparently. As they grow up, we’re told, an intergenerational shift is underway.
Those under the age of 35 not only think differently to the rest of us, claimed Matthew d’Ancona Read More >
Stores are still unbeatable advertisements 25th April 2019
Some managers of physical stores are getting paid for online sales too – and landlords want a slice of the action
While in Downtown Los Angeles a few weeks ago, I saw a large sign – like an oasis in the desert – for Dunkin’ Donuts Read More >
Hollywood’s love affair with the architect 24th April 2019
And why other property professionals get lumped with the bad guy roles
“I don’t build in order to have clients, I have clients in order to build!” raves Howard Roark, the architect hero of the 1949 film, The Fountainhead, based on Read More >
Consilia Capital Real Assets Monitor – Quarterly Performance Review 23rd April 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:
1) A summary of Fund performance
The table below shows the average March 2019, Q1 2019 and 5 year returns for the mandates in our Read More >
The false choice between capitalism and saving the planet 21st April 2019
The choice, apparently, is simple: capitalism or the planet.
In a television clip that quickly went viral last week, Guardian columnist George Monbiot said that the way to prevent climate breakdown was to “change the system”:
We have Read More >
Learn from my mistakes and avoid these three value traps 19th April 2019
Most investors found 2018 to be a bumpy ride and I was no exception.
The market price of my portfolio declined by more than 10% during the year, which was mildly annoying. But that’s not really what I’m talking about.
When I talk about Read More >
The Flames of Notre Dame and the Prowl of the Tiger 19th April 2019
My heart goes out to the people of France. The image of the burning cross taken from the air above the enflamed cathedral of Notre Dame is shattering. Its ruination, though, is causing immediate redemption. People all over France are pledging Read More >
Stable families and home ownership are the key to reducing poverty 18th April 2019
The Centre for Social Justice recently released an in-depth survey of people across Britain that found family breakdown was one of the most significant determinants of poor life outcomes.
When someone experiences trauma in childhood, linked Read More >
Cash flow 18th April 2019
‘Cash is king and the cash flow statement is arguably the most important of a company’s three main financial statements. We explain the relationship between profit and cash and how cash management is vital to keep companies in business.’ Read More >
Rightmove’s shares could be good value if you don’t care about dividends 17th April 2019
Rightmove is an incredible business. In the 11 years since it listed on the stock exchange its:
Revenues have gone up by more than 370%, going from £57 million to £268 millionEarnings have gone up by more than 1100%, going from 1.4p per Read More >
Plans to crack down on ‘no-fault’ evictions are a recipe for disaster 16th April 2019
The Government has decided, for reasons unknown, to effectively abolish the assured shorthold tenancy, leaving the assured tenancy as the only viable form of renting.
That sounds pretty trivial, but it is not far off a return to the situation Read More >
SINGAPORE REITS #10 16th April 2019
Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)
The FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REITs Index) continued its bullish rally, raising from 832.03 to 842.91 (+1.31%) as compared to my last post on Singapore REIT Read More >
Liz Truss is right to take a hard look at HS2 15th April 2019
The kings of Siam used to gift a white elephant to courtiers to whom they took a dislike. The elephants would be incredibly costly to maintain as they required special food and housing and it was illegal for the owner to sell them or to put them Read More >
Berlin embraces the folly of hard-left housing policies 12th April 2019
In Berlin, support is growing for a referendum on mass property expropriation. In a move reminiscent of East Germany’s communist past, the referendum’s supporters aim to seize property from all private landlords who own more than 3,000 Read More >
April 2019 12th April 2019
‘Timing is everything’ runs the investment cliché – actually it’s not: being right is better. In any event, spare a thought for the writer of this investment review who has been told that it must be in final form by 27 March. Of all Read More >
Should the Bank of England be responsible for controlling house prices? 12th April 2019
Labour is said to be considering whether the Bank of England should be mandated to limit house price growth. According to The Guardian, this would be done not via interest rates but via mortgage regulation as overseen by the financial policy Read More >
The ‘New Build’ Premium Conundrum 11th April 2019
While homeowners will pay a premium for their new build properties, a lower percentage of tenants will not. But does the data agree? In this month’s Market Mover, Gav delves deeper into the inconsistencies we’ve found in the ‘new build’ Read More >
Desert Diary 6 11th April 2019
How the peaceful Gulf state became one of the dominant economies in the world in under half a century
Here in the United Arab Emirates 2018 was the Year of Zayed, 12 months of commemoration to celebrate a century since the birth of the Read More >
What next in emerging markets and South African equities 10th April 2019
While China is up a stellar 30% since New Year’s Day 2019 and the post Bolsonaro rally in Brazil has been a license to print money in the Bovespa, the broader emerging markets have been a sucker’s bet in the past decade relative to the Read More >
What does a political crisis do to a party’s polling performance? 10th April 2019
As the Brexit crisis continues, many have expressed astonishment that the Labour Party has not (yet) been able to build up a substantial lead in voting intention polls. Their surprise is understandable – the government’s handling of Brexit Read More >
Cheaper food is good news for everyone 10th April 2019
Last week, I wrote about the cost of food in the United States between 1919 and 2019. Using historical data, I showed that, on average, basic food items have become much cheaper relative to the wages of unskilled laborers. I focused on unskilled Read More >
Shelter and Generation Rent? Radical? Don’t make me laugh… 8th April 2019
Campaigning groups like Generation Rent and Shelter like to think they are simultaneously edgy and radical; likewise some think tanks believe themselves to be lofty, worldly and above the fray of day-to-day politics.
So why, when it comes to Read More >
Don’t rely on the minimum wage in the fight against poverty 6th April 2019
The National Minimum Wage is 20 years old today. Despite the controversy surrounding its inception, it is now widely accepted across the political spectrum. As I noted recently, it looks as though Philip Hammond wants to increase it Read More >
Peter Zumthor, the architect monk 5th April 2019
Not long after his celebrated thermal baths were completed, Peter Zumthor, the idiosyncratic reclusive Swiss architect, gave a rare lecture in the elegant basement lecture hall at the RIBA. I had only recently qualified and I was eager to Read More >
Local tax powers would let Britons take back control 5th April 2019
With everything going on in Westminster at the moment, it’s easy to forget that Brexit was meant to be about taking back control. Some people dismiss that idea as mere campaign rhetoric, of course. Others see it as little more than jingoism. Read More >
The changing fortunes of the prime London housing market 4th April 2019
Source: LonRes
What does the chart show?
It’s easy to fixate on what’s happening now and block out the – even most recent - past. And this is never truer than when it comes to the housing market.
In prime central London Read More >
Waste to energy 3rd April 2019
‘China’s decision to stop importing waste materials from Europe for recycling has brought the problem of dealing with refuse into sharp focus. Waste-to-energy technology offers the potential for not only disposing of rubbish but using it to Read More >
Mumford’s mistake 2nd April 2019
The United States has experienced over 40 years of diminished economic growth. While different data sources and analyses yield different estimates, they all confirm several decades of slow economic growth. Earlier, from the 1890s to 1972, Read More >
The Golden Opportunity in Build-To-Rent Demand 2nd April 2019
Summary:
With the number of BTR developments expected to increase by 180% in the next 6 years, is this a golden opportunity for developers? The REalyst takes a closer look, using the REalyse platform to find potential BTR Read More >
Property’s broken crystal ball 1st April 2019
Real estate share prices have been implicitly forecasting property declines that are yet to materialise – what’s going on?
The most noticeable impact of the EU referendum in June 2016 upon the UK real estate sector has been the sharp Read More >
Yield curve a US recession signal? Maybe not this time 29th March 2019
Recent declines in US government bond yields have led to a flood of articles discussing the likelihood of a US recession over the next 12-18 months. This is understandable, first given the relatively strong correlation between yield curve Read More >
BAE Systems’ dividend yield is high, but is it good value? 27th March 2019
BAE Systems is an obvious choice for dividend investors.That's because:
(1) BAE Systems is the UK's largest defence manufacturer which should make it a relatively defensive company (governments may cut defence spending during Read More >
A king among cloud busters 27th March 2019
How a whisky magnate’s daughter fought to build a skyscraper that still takes the breath away
I must confess that I am not a huge fan of skyscrapers – or ‘cloud busters’ as they were first described in Chicago in the 1920s. Read More >
What could Brexit Britain learn from Venice? 26th March 2019
Today is Venice’s birthday. According to legend, the city was founded exactly 1,598 years ago today. A small, independent trading state beyond the reach of any overbearing European power, it flourished for many centuries.
Young Venice not Read More >
Safe as houses? 25th March 2019
Over almost 30 years UK house price gains have outperformed the best of British businesses. What next?
Index performance rebased to 100 in January 1990 %
What’s your biggest financial asset? For most Britons, it’s their Read More >
Why I am buying sterling, selling euros 21st March 2019
I might look very silly by the end of the month but there will not be a no deal Brexit. Neither side can afford this outcome. Sadly my crystal ball doesn’t run to how soft the Brexit will be, but what we do know is that a process of Read More >
Why Centrica no longer meets my investment criteria 21st March 2019
In 2012, one of the first companies I invested in as a defensive value investor was Centrica, the company behind British Gas.
It seemed like a good idea at the time. Centrica was a leading player in the defensive utilities sector, with a Read More >
Shopping Centre Valuation: The changing face of retail 21st March 2019
(How Much Is) That Doggie in the Window? - Bob Merrill (January 1953)
As the quote above reminds us, retail is all about enticing shoppers to part with their money to buy the goods on display. Historically, retailers have displayed their Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th March 2019
“There seem to be more banks in Germany than bicycles in Beijing…”
In the headlines this morning...
Unfortunately, a number of readers responded to yesterdays not-terribly-serious Morning Porridge by asking what I really think Read More >
An interview with Sandy Gumm 19th March 2019
Tim Green speaks to Sandy Gumm, Chief Operating Officer of Prestbury Investments LLP
Sandy Gumm is an Australian-qualified chartered accountant. She is chief operating officer of Prestbury Investments LLP, which is investment adviser to Read More >
Ignore the Spending Review at your peril – the stakes have never been higher 18th March 2019
You could be forgiven for not having noticed, but last week the Chancellor delivered his Spring Statement.
This is essentially just a response to the biannual fiscal updates which the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is mandated to Read More >
How to tame the tech giants 16th March 2019
Wednesday’s Spring Statement was always likely to be a sideshow compared to the Autumn Budget, even if Brexit hadn’t taken centre stage. But the Chancellor still managed to say a few interesting things, including on “tech and the Read More >
Keeping up with the Taxes: Investing Efficiently in Changing Times 15th March 2019
While the UK’s impending exit from the European Union may have dampened demand in UK property, particularly in the City, the same is not uniformly true elsewhere, and this year is nevertheless set to be strong if European investors are Read More >
Why we’re getting inflation wrong: The paradox of the Amazon Echo 14th March 2019
Amazon’s Echo speaker and similar smart speakers have recently been added to the basket of goods the Office for National Statistics uses to calculate inflation. It’s another useful reminder of how we tend to overstate inflation and thus Read More >
SINGAPORE REITS #9 14th March 2019
The FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REITs Index) continued its bullish rally, raising from 832.03 to 842.91 (+1.31%) as compared to my last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Feb Read More >
If the point of Help to Buy is to help people buy, there are other and better ways 12th March 2019
The housing minister describes being stopped in the street by people wanting to thank him for Help to Buy. ‘Several people have stopped me and thanked me for it, because it gives young people access to homes that otherwise they would not Read More >
Divergence in Leeds: Why Are House Prices Behind the Curve? 12th March 2019
Last quarter’s reports showed Leeds lagging behind the upward house price curve, while Birmingham and Manchester prices steamed ahead. In this month’s Market Mover, REalyse’s CEO and Statistical Mastermind, Gavriel Merkado, takes a closer Read More >
In defence of outsourcing 12th March 2019
The outsourcing firm Capita doesn’t seem to have done very well in its Army recruitment contract, according to a scathing report from MPs.
This is actually one of the advantages of outsourcing to a private sector organisation, being Read More >
Subscribe to The Property Chronicle magazine for as little as £25… 11th March 2019
Subscribe now to get the magazine delivered to your door or a PDF version sent to your inbox four times a year.
If you're interested in real estate, architecture, investing, classic cars and wine, then you'll love the Property Chronicle Read More >
Aldi, Lidl and the beauty of competitive capitalism 10th March 2019
One doesn’t expect to find the Guardian extolling the virtues of capitalism, but yesterday’s long-read on Aldi may be the exception that proves the rule.
The story of the deep discounting supermarket and its near identical rival, Lidl, is Read More >
Deal or no deal, Britain should pursue unilateral free trade 9th March 2019
A recent study estimates that the full burden of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump fell on American consumers. As reports claim that the Department for International Trade (DIT) intends to cut 80-90 per cent of the Read More >
Fewer landlords does not mean fewer homes – let’s not design policy as if it does 8th March 2019
I keep hearing it said that we should not re-regulate private renting, or if we do then we need to be very careful about it, lest landlords disinvest. This would exacerbate supply issues in places like London, it is claimed. One policy type told Read More >
Cheltenham Festival 2019 – George marks your card 7th March 2019
Shortly after 1.30pm next Tuesday afternoon, "The Roar" will signal the start of four days of compelling sport. 60,000 voices greeting the start of the Cheltenham Festival as the runners are sent on their way for the meeting's opening contest, Read More >
The houses that sugar built 6th March 2019
The early history of the Caribbean (and especially Barbados) is well told in the book Sugar Barons by Matthew Parker. Even by the cruel standards of the time, the descriptions of the treatment of indentured servants and slaves (who were Read More >
March Madness: REIT Bracketology Begins 6th March 2019
Excerpts of this article appeared in the March 2019 edition of the Forbes Real Estate Investor.
March is one of my favorite months in the year, especially because that’s when the biggest college basketball tournament takes place, and Read More >
3 Things I learnt about the UK Housing Market this week. 5th March 2019
Housebuilders Make Money
This week saw three of the biggest housebuilders in the UK deliver increases in the number of homes they built and the profits they made. Bovis sold 3,759 homes; Taylor Wimpey 15,275 homes and Persimmon 16,449 homes Read More >
Rot and decay are life giving processes, and environments without these processes are ultimately doomed 5th March 2019
There are two types of invertebrate on our farm that I refer to as “the enemy”. They are the fly and the liver fluke, one an external parasite and the other an internal one, each the bane of the health of our cattle and sheep across the Read More >
How Big Data Could Prevent Miscalculating Revenue Forecasts in the UK Property Market 4th March 2019
Purplebricks, the online estate agent, was in the headlines last week for all the wrong reasons: shares nose-dived by 40%, revenue forecasts came in short of £35m and management resigned. But could this all have been avoided with the help of Read More >
Response to ‘What do we mean by #RethinkRealEstate?’ by Yolanda Barnes 4th March 2019
I started perusing The Property Chronicle a few months ago when I came across a good piece by John Ratcliffe. This morning I knew I had to respond to Yolande Barnes' What do we mean by #RethinkRealEstate?
She's a professor of real Read More >
Letter from Washington 4th March 2019
"U.S., China Close In on Trade Deal." Sunday afternoon's Wall Street Journal article led with:
China and the U.S. are in the final stage of completing a trade deal, with Beijing offering to lower tariffs and other restrictions on Read More >
Real Estate Market Cycle Monitor – Fourth Quarter 2018 Analysis 4th March 2019
The Physical Market Cycle Analysis of 5 Property Types in 54 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
The 2018 economic expansion continued at a moderate pace with a slightly higher GDP growth rate than the past five years. Employment growth Read More >
REITs & Recessions – A Historical Reminder 1st March 2019
As readers know, I’ve shown time and again how REITs are a great source of generous, safe, and growing income over time, and a favorite among high-yield investors – a group that includes those with low-risk tolerances such as retirees Read More >
Good News, Bad News and Walls of Worry 1st March 2019
The MSCI All Country World Index is up some 250% since the financial crisis. But was there ever a cycle in which investors were more skeptical about the market’s upward momentum, where stock valuations had to climb so many “walls of Read More >
Six Tech trends to watch out for in 2019 1st March 2019
1. It’s time to take responsbility
Unease about big tech’s impact on society is driving a movement towards responsibility. Fifty-one per cent of Americans think that major technology companies should be regulated more than they currently Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 1st March 2019
“Dydd Gwyl Dewi Hapus”
In the headlines this morning...
A moment of frostiness in the Blain household this morning after I failed to provide my very Welsh “She-Who-Is-Now-Mrs-Blain” with Daffodils for St David’s Day. Cup of tea Read More >
Fund managers look beyond retail woe 1st March 2019
Marcus Phayre-Mudge of BMO and Adrian Elwood of Clerkenwell Capital tells Property Chronicle that there are plenty of alternatives to back beyond shopping centres.
Investors in listed European property companies may feel at a disadvantage. A Read More >
Diary of a Traveling Academic – When property sold for ten cents on the dollar 28th February 2019
These last six months have been full of terrific opportunities for this travelling academic to feed her real estate addiction.
First up was a trip home to Madison for the Wisconsin Real Estate Alumni Association. Since I hold three Read More >
Spare us the crocodile tears about tiny homes and co-living spaces 27th February 2019
A new report from the Social Market Foundation, suggesting building co-living spaces for sale to mitigate the housing crisis, has attracted the usual backlash.
Much of the opposition to tiny homes, co-living facilities and the like comes from Read More >
Diary of a Real Estate Professor 26th February 2019
What do we mean by #RethinkRealEstate?
If you are wondering what your life is about and want to get rather philosophical about it all, there is nothing quite like acquiring a new job title –particularly when you have to make it up yourself. Read More >
Chopping down the Magic Money Tree: The pitfalls of Modern Monetary Theory 26th February 2019
Austerity, welfare, pensions – all our fiscal dilemmas could be easily solved by printing money. This is the conclusion of a fashionable strand of macroeconomics called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) — but does it stand up to scrutiny?
At Read More >
Has austerity really cost us £100bn? 25th February 2019
Writing in a blog for the New Economics Foundation (NEF), Alfie Sterling has made the striking claim that fixing the public sector finances has “suppressed the economy by almost £100 billion”, or “around £1,500 for every Read More >
Yet another tax is no way to ‘level the playing field’ for the high street 25th February 2019
A new report from the lengthily titled Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee has made for some exciting headlines this morning. Beware, Britain could be about to turn into a nation of “ghost towns” unless we take urgent action Read More >
The UK Housing Market in 2019 | The Deep Trends (part 3) 25th February 2019
PART III: the UK Macro and Micro Factors
Following on from Part 2 of The UK Housing Market in 2019: the Deep Trends, where I analysed domestic macro factors in the forecasting the near-term future of house prices here in the UK and for 2019, Read More >
Honda’s Swindon plant is a victim of the electrification revolution 22nd February 2019
Despite giddy excitement in Westminster regarding the formation of The Independent Group, the most sobering news of the week was the announcement that Honda would be closing its Swindon factory in 2021, taking 7000 jobs with it.
The news Read More >
The Multibillion-Dollar Retail Logistics Challenge: Handling Online Returns 22nd February 2019
This past holiday season, as with many other times of the year, the difference between making or losing money online came down to one thing for many retailers: How effectively and efficiently they handle returns of merchandise.
Returns are as Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 22nd February 2019
“She was a Stradivarius of an Airplane!”
In the headlines this morning...
Some marvellous stuff in the papers this morning and on the screens – slight delay to the porridge this morning is because we watched the USAF RAF flypast from Read More >
Letter from Washington 21st February 2019
President Trump's schedule (EST):
11:30 AM: Daily intelligence briefing;
12:15 PM: Lunch with Acting Interior Secretary Bernhardt; and
6:15 PM: Reception for National African American History Month.
China Read More >
No definition, no soul, no purpose – what is the point of the Independent Group? 21st February 2019
And then there were eleven. The “Independent Group” of MPs can, for the time being, field a cricket team. They now hold more seats in the House of Commons than the Democratic Unionist Party. They are not so much a third way as the fourth Read More >
How overseas investment impacts developers and the UK Property Market 21st February 2019
Summary:
Will overseas investment into UK property continue at the same rate as recent years as we career towards the Brexit deadline? Our REalyst analyses the future of overseas investment into UK properties and weighs up the Read More >
Letter from Washington 20th February 2019
The Federal Government in D.C. is closed today because of an ice and snow storm.
"Federal Reserve Board offices in Washington, D.C. are closed due to inclement weather.
The FOMC minutes will be released as scheduled at 2:00 p.m. The daily Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th February 2019
“A February Super Snow Moon? Its warmer than a Scottish Summer out there...”
In the headlines this morning...
I note with some delight Bernie Sanders plans to stand for US President. One of my US chums sent me the story of the Read More >
Banning short selling stops the market from doing its job 20th February 2019
The German authorities have recently banned short selling in a company called Wirecard – this is the wrong decision.
It misses the point of what markets are actually about, namely finding the correct price for something. If that happens to Read More >
In maritime investments it pays to cast your network wide 20th February 2019
In our last article we looked at how Ship Owners were attracting financial investments through innovating their product offering and slowly catching up with the digital age. This commentary will now focus on the softer skills required in dealing Read More >
Letter from Washington 19th February 2019
FOMC Minutes -- 2 PM Wednesday
Fed Monetary Policy Report -- 11 AM Friday
2019 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, NY:
Fed Vice Chair Clarida, 12 PM Friday, "The Federal Reserve's Review of Monetary Policy Strategies, Tools, and Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 19th February 2019
“Any customer can have a car painted any colour they want, so long as it is black.”
In the headlines this morning
Reasons to be cheerful….? Can’t really think of anything this morning. Just more snapshots on why we should remain Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 18th February 2019
“Once I built a tower, now its done, Brother, can you spare a dime?”
In the headlines this morning
Another fascinating weekend… It’s a holiday in the US, and much of UK is off for mid-term. I’m still trying to digest the Read More >
The UK Housing Market in 2019 – The Deep Trends (Part 2) 18th February 2019
PART II: the UK Macro Factors
Following on from Part 1, where I analysed global macro factors in the forecasting the near-term future of house prices here in the UK and for 2019, I will now shift my focus to the meaty questions: what Read More >
The Green Line – February 2019 15th February 2019
Once a month we will bring you an interesting chart with a short commentary. Our aim is to illuminate the corners of financial markets.
TINA turning?
Rising returns on cash may cause investors to withdraw from riskier assets such as Read More >
The V in Volatility 15th February 2019
The equity rally is likely just the start of a volatile adjustment to a new fundamental reality.
“Investors who sit out now could miss a chunk of this year’s returns.”
Those were the last words that I wrote in one of our CIO Weekly Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 15th February 2019
Not as glamorous as Brooklyn, as cool as Staten Island, or as private as Manhattan… ”*
*In the headlines this morning
Bit of jolt to stock market’s yesterday – US Retail Sales crash, Trade War concerns, slowdown in China, Read More >
Blain’s Morning Porridge 14th February 2019
“I was going to buy you a thousand red-roses my darling Mrs Blain.. but they were a bit expensive.. ”
In the headlines this morning: https://morningporridge.com/stuff-im-watching
There was a girl selling very expensive roses Read More >
Believe it or not, Britain isn’t a nation of NIMBYs 14th February 2019
Last week, polling for CapX found broad agreement that there is a housing crisis in Britain, though people in all regions thought it was less bad in their local area, with politicians the most likely culprits in the eyes of voters.
This week Read More >
Supermarket Income REIT – Visible income and growth potential 13th February 2019
Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR) reported strong H119 earnings growth on the back of its growing portfolio, contracted RPI-linked rental uplifts, and well-controlled costs. The Q219 DPS was increased by 3.2%, in line with RPI. Rental growth also Read More >
The UK Housing Market in 2019 – The Deep Trends (Part one) 13th February 2019
PART I: The Global Macro Factors
Time and again, I am asked: What about the future? What can you tell me about what will happen tomorrow? Next week? Next month? Next year?
In this series, I will be doing just that and forecasting the Read More >
Jeremy Corbyn Provides the Best Chance of Retrieving Margaret Thatcher’s Property-Owning Democracy 12th February 2019
When considering the investment risks that would arise from the implementation of an anti-capitalist labour manifesto, we should start by considering both the likelihood of this outcome and the form of Brexit that will provide the economic and Read More >
London, UK: Strengthening ties between capital and country 12th February 2019
As the political, financial and cultural centre of the United Kingdom, is London too dominant? This report explores how London's relationship with the UK has changed and sets out new thinking on how the capital can better connect with its nation Read More >
The German real estate market 11th February 2019
The availability of German real estate has fallen, illustrated by a 5.3% year-on-year decline in 2017 residential permits. Since then, there has been little to no movement, with the German Federal Statistical Office reporting a 0.5% increase in Read More >
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