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21st July 2021
“Videos posted on social media showed security agents and groups of soldiers beating up demonstrators on Sunday. Protesters ripped up portraits of Fidel Castro, while others destroyed police motorbikes and overturned police cars.” Those are the words of Wall Street Journal reporters Jose de Cordoba and Santiago Perez.
Hopefully the video images downloaded from the streets of Havana signal a successful push by the Cuban people to finally free themselves from tyranny. Those in power... Read More >
Recent Articles:
20th July 2021
We always get slightly nervous at REFIRE when Germany goes all bullish on the stock market. It's not that we don't believe in the stock market as a source of capital and wealth building – we do – but it's just that, well... Germans in Read More >
19th July 2021
“Let China Sleep. When she awakes, she will shake the world…”
This Morning: The media is full of China noise – does the rising tension mean it may become un-investible? The Chinese economy is very different, but recognisably similar. Read More >
14th July 2021
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased slightly from 849.11 to 868.08 (2.23%) compared to the last monthly update. Currently the Singapore REIT index is still trading with a range between 816 and 880.Yield spread Read More >
13th July 2021
One summer night in August, 1935, a young Soviet miner named Alexei Stakhanov managed to extract 102 tonnes of coal in a single shift. This was nothing short of extraordinary (according to Soviet planning, the official average for a single shift Read More >
12th July 2021
Surfing a wave of institutional adoption... and liquidity.
The best investments are often the least comfortable ones. This is certainly the case with our decision to add bitcoin exposure to Ruffer’s portfolios in November last year.
Many Read More >
7th July 2021
Here’s what will happen as global warming accelerates.
Climate change will affect every aspect of our lives – including the buildings we live and work in. Most people in the US, for example, spend about 90% of their Read More >
30th June 2021
Samaila Zubairu, president and CEO, Africa Finance Corporation, outlines Africa’s infrastructure needs and opportunities the continent has to achieve for economic success and independence.
What is required for Africa to meet its industrial Read More >
29th June 2021
The efficiency of the UK’s vaccination roll-out and the subsequent easing of lockdown restrictions have brought a renewed sense of confidence into London’s Prime Central London (PCL) market. This is most welcome, given how challenging, Read More >
28th June 2021
The brasserie next to my office is a classic. A chalkboard shows the plats du jour. The waiters in crisp black waistcoats glide between tables. The corner terrasse catches the lunchtime sun. Customers watch the world from wicker chairs facing Read More >
23rd June 2021
Substantial reductions in the UK’s CO2 production will not be achieved without improving the energy efficiency of the built environment. This means fixing existing buildings, not just building more efficient new ones.
Heat pumps are Read More >
22nd June 2021
“£180 billion of lockdown savings”, “Retail sales back to pre-pandemic levels”, “High street footfall shows signs of recovery” (Source: Financial Times, BBC, Modern Retail). While the positive headlines surrounding the reopening of Read More >
21st June 2021
I love companies that can grow for decades.
The best sort of growth reinforces the business model, which in turn makes future growth more likely. Network effects and economies of scale from greater purchasing power, or leveraging fixed Read More >
17th June 2021
Following the tragic events at Grenfell Tower in June 2017, the UK Government signalled its intention to end the unsafe cladding of highrise residential buildings, providing funding of over £5b to date, towards the cost of replacing such Read More >
15th June 2021
“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the US economy will likely boom. This Read More >
14th June 2021
I was five years old when my father decided to move to the north of Scotland, to farm at the edge of the world and the edge of the farming world. Why do I describe it thus? To the north, the east and southeast, his neighbours did not Read More >
10th June 2021
Suppose you lent someone $100 and when they paid you back they only handed you, say, $99 or $80. Would you consider the borrower to have kept his promise and contractual obligation? Or would you think that he had cheated you out of a part of the Read More >
9th June 2021
In the climate crisis, there is a big bloody great elephant in the room: our homes. residential housing contributes 20% of the UK’s CO2e, yet what is being done to tackle it?
The carbon linked to transport, food and buying stuff is Read More >
8th June 2021
Rising interest rates are of concern for global economists and practitioners, as an increasing level of government bonds have been employed throughout the world during the Covid pandemic. To read my forecast of the incremental interest rates, Read More >
7th June 2021
On 4 June 1989, an estimated one million peaceful protestors in China were met with machine gun fire and tank columns in what would be known forever as the Tiananmen Square Massacre. Simply known as the ‘June 4th Incident’ in China, where Read More >
3rd June 2021
As a once-devout environmentalist, I have a T-shirt with a slogan heavily used by activists. Often credited to the Abenaki Alanis Obomsawin, it speaks directly to our modernity-hating followers in the Church of Climate:
When the last Read More >
2nd June 2021
Covid-19 is not over yet. New variants; second, third and fourth waves; and the logistical challenges of vaccinating 7.8b people around the world means that ‘post-COVID’ is likely a way off. As some United States’ cities begin to Read More >
27th May 2021
Following the crash of 2008/2009 the S&P 500 went on a record-breaking run, gaining around 400% over 11 years before peaking in early 2020.
It then suffered a record-breaking crash thanks to Covid-19, but that was short-lived and the Read More >
26th May 2021
The UK economy: an ever-changing picture of work in progress, part three.
In what follows I wish to make the case that persistent unemployment is not some inevitability whenever the UK is shocked. To do so, I will cast my mind back to the UK Read More >
25th May 2021
China is close to launching nine infrastructure REITs to finance national infrastructure projects (eg, industrial parks, warehouses, tollways, sewage plants) for the first time, with an estimated market capitalisation of US$4.7b by May 2021. Read More >
24th May 2021
I’m a heretic in a world where environmentalism is a leading religion. I think it’s OK to use a lot of paper and I generally ignore the little exhortation at the bottom of so many emails saying, ‘Think about the environment before printing Read More >
20th May 2021
An economist once relayed to me a conversation that he had with his teenage niece regarding the content of her high school global history class. When he asked her about the Industrial Revolution, she replied that there were good and bad things Read More >
19th May 2021
Sure, the sector suffered last year, but it’s overcome troubles before and will do so again.
Real estate investment trusts, or REITs, were misunderstood for years after they debuted in 1960 – even for decades. When they were first written Read More >
18th May 2021
This article was originally published in September 2020.
(Oliver is joint-owner of Maidstone Utd FC, Director of Brive Rugby Club in French Top 14 and recent Board Member of The National League.)
Right now there is a heated debate on Read More >
17th May 2021
The long view of property.
In light of the latest review of the long-term economic and financial market outlook, Capital Economics recently revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next few decades. Given the shake-up Read More >
13th May 2021
This article was originally published in December 2020..
The spring lockdown did not stop UK M&A in its tracks, but activity slowed. Faced with the fog of economic uncertainty, some buyers put their chequebooks back in the drawer, and Read More >
12th May 2021
Working at home is something many of us have got used to – maybe too used to – over the past year. In a strange way we are recapitulating the experience of our ancestors. For most of human history, home working was the norm – whether Read More >
12th May 2021
This article was originally published in January 2021.
Traditionally, real estate was often viewed as little more than a downside hedge for a diversified portfolio. This reflects its low correlation with equities and bonds and its perceived Read More >
11th May 2021
“Vino treba slugu, a ne gospodara” (A vineyard needs a servant, not a master). This old Croatian saying, which has been handed down by winemaking families for centuries entails the single most important truth about wine making: it's darn Read More >
10th May 2021
President Joe Biden delivered a speech to a Joint Session of Congress on 28 April 2021, where he made the following remark that should be seen as a red flag:
“America is moving – moving forward – but we can’t stop now. We’re in Read More >
6th May 2021
In their desperation to find a reason for why bitcoin is terrible-bad-destructive-awful and morally reprehensible, the crypto-obsessed authors of the Financial Times blog Alphaville – Jemima Kelly, Jamie Powell, Izabella Kaminska – are Read More >
5th May 2021
The IMF released a sobering Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Sub-Saharan Africa last month. In 2020, the regional economy shrank by 1.9% and this year the IMF forecasts only 3.4% year-on-year growth for Sub-Saharan Africa compared to 5.8% for Read More >
29th April 2021
The pandemic will have a long tail, resulting in a rollercoaster property cycle in the coming years.
June 21st – hooray! We have a date for a return to normal (sort of). The pricing-in of some vaccine optimism in the financial markets in Read More >
28th April 2021
The island nation of Taiwan may be in the spotlight today for handling covid-19 without a lockdown but it’s about to become one of the most contentious geopolitical flashpoints of the decade. On 17 April 2021, The South China Morning Post Read More >
28th April 2021
Offices are starting to strengthen, and reduced supply is making even retail more attractive – as value emerges, it’s time to get back in the game.
The UK quoted property sector and indeed much of the direct property market has not had Read More >
27th April 2021
Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.
Whichever side of the inflation debate you are on, it makes sense to Read More >
27th April 2021
The first in a three-part series examines how the country has been transformed (for the better) in the past few decades.
The UK economy looks fundamentally different now from its image just 30 years ago. It is simply unrecognisable – and Read More >
26th April 2021
A fascinating exchange played out in the UK’s House of Lords on 2 June 2020. Neil Ferguson, the physicist from Imperial College London who created the main epidemiology model behind the lockdowns, faced his first serious questioning about the Read More >
26th April 2021
Journalism is hard. To portray the world accurately to a lay audience without delving into the complexities and nuances of the universe we inhabit, writers must always simplify, explain, and make difficult content relatable for their readers. Read More >
22nd April 2021
While institutional investors of the 1990s preferred passive investment vehicles with a diversified portfolio of multiple real estate sectors, recent real estate investment strategies have shifted from diversified REIT portfolios to specialised Read More >
21st April 2021
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
20th April 2021
On 16 December 2020 the following joint statement was issued by the FBI, the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence: “Over the course of the past several days, the FBI, CISA, Read More >
20th April 2021
Some of you may remember Steven Bradbury, the Australian short-track speed skater, in the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. The unlikely finalist – he’d snuck through the semi-final after the defending champion fell three bends Read More >
19th April 2021
In a market economy, consumers vote with their dollars. The survival and growth of a business depends pivotally upon how effectively it convinces customers to buy its products over those of its competitors. But recently, consumers seem to expect Read More >
15th April 2021
Limitations to our flight movements due to the pandemic remain frustrating, but unrestricted personal air travel will have to resume. When it does, the eurozone’s tourist-hungry Club Med economies will have essentially lost two years of Read More >
15th April 2021
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 826.65 to 859.68 (+3.99%) compared with last month’s update. Currently the Singapore REIT index is still trading with a range between 816 and 874.
Yield spread Read More >
14th April 2021
When thinking about successful emerging market investing, the following quote comes to mind: “In an unfamiliar culture, it is wise to offer no innovations, no suggestions, or lessons.” (Maya Angelou, American poet and civil rights Read More >
13th April 2021
Proptech is not new: a conversation with (above, from left to right) Jim Young, founder and CEO of Realcomm, Michael Beckerman, CEO of CREtech, and Matt Ellis, CEO of Measurabl.
Biographies
Jim Young is the founder of Realcomm Conference Read More >
13th April 2021
The state of New York is an economic disaster area.
New York is ranked #50 in the Economic Freedom of North America.New York is ranked #48 in the State Business Tax Climate Index.New York is ranked Read More >
8th April 2021
This year, a Paris property pioneer celebrates 50 years living and working in France. In half a century of developing office properties, the resilient Paul Raingold has navigated many cycles of boom, bust and recovery. In late 2020 he recovered Read More >
7th April 2021
3 July 1938 was a milestone for British engineering. The LNER 4468 Mallard set a new world speed record for steam-powered locomotives between Little Bytham and Essendine in South Lancashire at 203km/hr. More importantly though at the time, it Read More >
7th April 2021
The late Everett Dirksen, a long-serving Minority Leader of the Republicans in the US Senate, is famously quoted as saying a billion here, a billion there, and soon we’re talking real money. That was back in 1969. At the time, a billion Read More >
6th April 2021
Despite the pandemic, restrictive government policies, and the worst economic contraction in history, US household net worth rose again in the fourth quarter to a new record. Household net worth rose to $130.155tn, up 5.6% from the previous Read More >
5th April 2021
The campaign in Berlin to drive a stake through the heart of large German residential landlords moved into its second phase last week, when the Expropriate Deutsche Wohnen & Co. movement began collecting signatures in its petition to cut Read More >
1st April 2021
Who’s right about the best way to reduce child poverty?
Reading through the recent intellectual proxy fight between NYT columnist Nicholas Kristof and Fox News panelist John Tamny (Property Chronicle, 22 March), I couldn’t help but recall Read More >
31st March 2021
Although the covid pandemic has had a major impact on the Pacific Rim office markets, Real Capital Analytics reports show that considerable regional real estate investment attention has focused on the traditional office sector in recent years. Read More >
31st March 2021
An event in 1989 shook the world and radically changed how critical institutions operated. No, I’m not talking about the fall of communism and the following disintegration of the Soviet bloc, but of an obscure change of public policy in a land Read More >
30th March 2021
The constraints of newspaper reporting helped hone the style of many great novelists, including Hemingway
Before they were literary celebrities, many authors spent time as jobbing journalists. Charles Dickens, Rudyard Kipling, H.G. Wells, Read More >
30th March 2021
Abandoned golf courses are ripe for redevelopment and offer ideal locations for distribution.
E-commerce fulfilment does not usually trigger an image of grassy meadows and gently rolling landscapes, but there’s a growing convergence as Read More >
29th March 2021
The collapse of Greensill involved a predicable cast of unwise enablers, but it should serve as a warning to the growing number of alternative asset buyers on the dangers of complex deals which promise much but deliver less. Due diligence is Read More >
29th March 2021
This newly trendy approach is not just environmentally and consumer friendly, it’s practical too – and at root it’s as old as the hills.
Regenerative agriculture is the groundswell movement shaking up land investment at the moment. The Read More >
29th March 2021
Earlier this month, the UK and Ghana announced the signing of a long-anticipated bilateral economic partnership agreement (EPA) aiming to replicate pre-Brexit trading arrangements and provide for the two countries’ respective long-term Read More >
26th March 2021
You might be surprised to hear that when it comes to applying for debt, high net worth individuals (HNWIs) find themselves at an immediate disadvantage. This stems from the inherent complexity of their income structures and finances.
There is Read More >
26th March 2021
Total housing starts fell to a 1.421 million annual rate from a 1.584 million pace in January, a 10.3% decrease. Month-to-month volatility in housing construction can be influenced by weather conditions and conditions in significant portions of Read More >
25th March 2021
We are at a key moment in economic history right now. This is the definitive movement of the world and economic life from a world of territorial states and economies to one of cities. Cities have been a feature of human life for almost 6,000 Read More >
24th March 2021
The state of Massachusetts has now entered Phase III Step 2 of a reopening, which means all sorts of amazing nonsense cobbled together by people with power who imagine that their high-end credentials grant them the intelligence to outsmart a Read More >
24th March 2021
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
23rd March 2021
For many years retail has been the second-largest invested asset class in the commercial real estate world. But now, being one of the sectors most hard-hit by covid-19, it is often leaving investors nervy, and has become an area that many are Read More >
23rd March 2021
“A railroad station? That was sort of a primitive airport, only you didn't have to take a cab 20 miles out of town to reach it.” Reading through a recent Economist article discussing the runaway success of the Chinese high-speed rail Read More >
22nd March 2021
Nicholas Kristof is elated. Of course, there lies the problem with elation found in the overly emotional. It’s not always grounded in reality.
To see why, consider what has the New York Times columnist overjoyed. It’s the $1.9tn Read More >
18th March 2021
While French springtime brings familiar rituals like Easter bells and poissons d’avril, the south coast of France offers property professionals their own familiar spring ritual. Every year, in the second week of March, tens of thousands of Read More >
18th March 2021
The best can come out of the worst – if we work (in our office) at it!
As an architect I need to be an optimist – it is part of my survival kit. That does not make me unaware of the bad – but it does make me look for the good (I am ever Read More >
17th March 2021
In the wake of the interview of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle with Oprah Winfrey, numerous pundits questioned the relevance of having monarchs serve in a ceremonial function of head of state. And to be sure, that does not apply merely to Great Read More >
17th March 2021
Proptech aims to disrupt in multiple ways, but equity markets may hold a clue to the future.
This is the third article in our proptech series. The first looked at how to connect finance and property markets; the second explained how a huge Read More >
16th March 2021
Some trends in investing are cyclical (mean reverting) and some are structural (permanent). Distinguishing between the two is crucial for investors.
Cyclical trends mean-revert eventually, but can spend long periods at either extreme. The Read More >
15th March 2021
“We don’t know what we don’t know,” as Donald Rumsfeld once said when asked whether intelligence gathered had been shared adequately across the US intelligence community. Applied to the economies of Africa, the meaning goes even deeper, Read More >
11th March 2021
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreased from 877.59 to 826.65 (-5.80%) compared with last month’s update. Currently the Singapore REIT index is moving sideways after a false breakout at resistance around Read More >
10th March 2021
With its resurrection following the Second World War and the unification of East and West, Germany has had a remarkable journey over the past 75 years. In particular its stable and reliable public service has been a model for others. This has Read More >
9th March 2021
We live in a world of virtual reality: virtual conversations, virtual relationships, virtual work, and virtual leisure. Artificial intelligence is on a mission to replace us all with avatars: bright, shiny versions of ourselves. Central banks Read More >
4th March 2021
The Property Chronicle is delighted to be a supporter of the Royal Marsden Cancer Charity’s Oak Cancer Centre Appeal. To help them raise awareness and money we thought you would enjoy it if we asked Mike Slade, chairman of the appeal, a Read More >
3rd March 2021
David Baddiel’s polemic Jews Don’t Count has proved surprisingly controversial. He seems to have gone out of his way to rile political opponents – mostly antisemites, and their enablers and apologists.
Rightly so. There will never Read More >
3rd March 2021
I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the markets have been a little volatile in 2021. Or have they been volatile for the last 12 months? Maybe even longer than that? It’s getting difficult to say, when this seems to be the new norm.
Take Read More >
2nd March 2021
Private real estate partnerships tend to outperform institutional real estate investments by a significant margin for several reasons. First, they include a greater proportion of higher risk investments and value-add opportunities while Read More >
1st March 2021
For decades, those of us sceptical of our central banks’ monetary experiments have tried to punish them for their excesses – rein them in, have them follow a stated rule, or at least provide a way for us critics to opt out of their system. Read More >
1st March 2021
Global capital markets rallied at the beginning of the year, riding on expectations of a global economic recovery; investors also cheered the swearing-in of US president Joe Biden and the implications of anticipated policy reversals that could Read More >
26th February 2021
Housing permits, considered a leading indicator for future construction activity and the broader economy, surged to a 15-year high in January. The jump was supported by increases in the dominant single-family category and the multifamily Read More >
25th February 2021
David Attenborough, a well-known BBC film presenter and climate activist, has a fantastic quote about growth and economists. It’s so captivating that I suspect it lies at the foundation for ridiculing every sensible environmental comment by Read More >
24th February 2021
Exponentiality not linearity is the way forward for proptech.
This is our second article on how the power of data will change the real estate investment landscape. In the first article we explained how ownership data can connect finance and Read More >
23rd February 2021
THE word of this extraordinary winter in Paris has been couvre-feu. The very expression is still heavy with associations from the 1940s occupation, even if the order to “cover your fires!” was originally intended to protect medieval wooden Read More >
23rd February 2021
This integrated approach offers a handy way to tailor risk/return solutions in the current market.
Back in 2003, Susan Hudson-Wilson, Frank Fabozzi and Jacques Gordon wrote an influential academic paper entitled “Why Real Estate?”, which Read More >
23rd February 2021
Öslem Tureci and Uğur Şahin – the founders of BionTech, which, together with Pfizer, pioneered one of the first covid-19 vaccines – are remarkable individuals in a wider sense. While their scientific research and business success, leading Read More >
22nd February 2021
New retail leasing models and platforms capture the uplift a physical store can bring to online sales.
It is no secret that the retail sector has been in decline for some years, largely because the economics of online retailers and their Read More >
22nd February 2021
“The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”For a nation battling with working-from-home fatigue, this statement from Aristotle takes on a new meaning. As we edge closer to the anniversary of the UK’s first lockdown, office-based Read More >
19th February 2021
A physical market cycle analysis of four property typesacross 54 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 4Q2020.
GDP ended 2020 at a negative -3.5% annual growth rate, after the largest decline (2Q20) and bounce-back (3Q20) in history. Read More >
18th February 2021
In a year of ‘special advisers’ falling on swords, the tale of Thomas Becket, martyred on 29 December 1170, can read like an overdramatized telling of Dominic Cummings’ resignation – sacrificing himself for his colleague, though Read More >
16th February 2021
The historical role of female investors is belatedly coming under the spotlight.
In recent years, industry research has documented the rise of female investors. A report by the Center for Talent Innovation titled Harnessing the Power of the Read More >
16th February 2021
Recently I wrote part 1 of this article in the hope that with the coming of a new presidential administration we can start to think rationally about dealing with what is a tricky adversary. Tricky because it is clear that China is an existential Read More >
15th February 2021
For almost a year, we have personally witnessed friends and colleagues sharing pictures of their working-from-home digs. At the onset of the pandemic, we would see shots of a laptop on a bistro table situated on patios, balconies or even Read More >
15th February 2021
CAP subsidies aren’t why farmland prices rose, so removing them won’t reverse that.
My favourite Savills Rural Research graph is the one that has tracked land values in the UK since the 1970s. We have data going way back before that too, Read More >
12th February 2021
“Drive-through and pickup-only is the quick-service restaurant business model of the future.” I remember having that conversation with prospective buyers in 2018 when I was selling a single-tenant Dutch Bros Coffee in Payson, Arizona. For Read More >
11th February 2021
A novelist in our post-God world where ideology has so often replaced faith, and where the very value of truth and what constitutes betrayal (that most Christian of themes) becomes a moral battlefield.
My favourite novel of le Carré’s is A Read More >
10th February 2021
Has adapting to a distributed workforce really been such a big change for organisations? Martin Schwarzburg finds out, with a recruiter’s viewpoint provided by Tim Green.
With the pictures of camouflaged men storming the US Capitol fresh on Read More >
9th February 2021
US-China relations have an incredibly complicated history that dates back many years to when the United States first interacted with imperial China. There have been some periods of mutual benefit and trade. There have also been numerous armed Read More >
8th February 2021
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
8th February 2021
The resilience of prime residential markets was highlighted over the second half of 2020. Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index recorded an average capital value increase of 0.8% for the cities in the index at a time when global GDP was Read More >
5th February 2021
That I have worked and lived on three continents has given me the chance to create amazing relationships with many different people and cultures, and more importantly, to develop the ability to put things into perspective and context. In my many Read More >
5th February 2021
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 854.19 to 877.59 (+2.74%) since last month’s update. Currently the Singapore REIT index has started an uptrend after breaking resistance around 852 and Read More >
4th February 2021
On 20 January 2021 the Czech lower house of parliament passed a bipartisan bill that, if enacted, would potentially pose a significant threat to one of the EU’s core elements, its single market with 450 million consumers.
If approved in the Read More >
3rd February 2021
Investing is one of those rare pursuits where amateurs can have an advantage over the professionals.
It happens in almost no other field. If I competed against any professional sports person, I’d lose every time. If I was asked to perform Read More >
3rd February 2021
As investors, how will humans behave following the effects of covid-19? On the one hand, there is the line of thought that humans have short memories and once we are through this pandemic we will very quickly bounce back to what may be Read More >
3rd February 2021
Commercial real estate is priced to produce superior risk-adjusted returns compared with investments in both fixed income and public equities in coming years. This article will present two different frameworks to assess and validate this Read More >
3rd February 2021
The Roaring Twenties hold a certain nostalgia in the collective American mindset, harkening back to the days of flappers, speakeasies, and the headiness of the economic boom that preceded the Great Depression. While most have some recollection Read More >
3rd February 2021
As often happens following major market events, some high-quality but less familiar stocks can find themselves overly discounted in the subsequent recovery. UK property investors have been well aware of the attractions of industrial property for Read More >
2nd February 2021
As 2021 begins, the real estate world is starting to process and plan for the achievement of herd immunity in the United States – the moment when transmission of covid-19 cases ceases due to mass vaccination and acquired immunity. Whether that Read More >
1st February 2021
While some argue that covid-19 measures are the start of a permanent new universal basic income (UBI) to mitigate the risk that societies are entirely torn apart, others see UBI as a draw for (younger) people to migrate to cities. Another line Read More >
1st February 2021
We have been inundated. Well, that is perhaps an exaggeration, but there has been a very noticeable acceleration in the number of new young and youngish families buying property in our village since the pandemic began; and it has continued Read More >
1st February 2021
As the calendar turns to 2021 and we talk about the great digital pivot everyone experienced in 2020, one of the many themes that comes up in any digitally focused conversation is 5G. A lot of fun stuff comes up in any 5G talk, including (but Read More >
28th January 2021
The past year has seen unprecedented change as all have faced up to the challenge of the pandemic. It has created challenge and not a little confusion, but it has also provided time and space to evaluate what really matters in life and the Read More >
26th January 2021
With each economic crisis that has hit since 2008, we have witnessed the central banks of many developed nations engaging in ever more voluminous quantitative easing. Against this backdrop, we should not have been surprised that supporters of Read More >
26th January 2021
Conducive global developments placed financial markets on a risk-on mode in the final month of 2020. The prospect of widely available coronavirus vaccines, the US bipartisan agreement on fiscal stimulus, and the EU-UK post-Brexit trade Read More >
26th January 2021
China’s position on the world stage is changing rapidly as it moves to become a strategic competitor to incumbent economic powerhouses. Not least because of the recent trade conflict between the US and China and its long-term fallout as well Read More >
25th January 2021
I read with interest the recent piece in the Property Chronicle entitled “Universal Basic Income Decimates Big Cities”. The thought of UBI as a modern-day Godzilla stomping across our city landscapes decimating all in his path is one that I Read More >
25th January 2021
After the exceptional challenges brought by covid-19, the distribution of a vaccine brings new hope for 2021. Sustained economic recovery is now on the horizon, led by advanced economies where vaccines are being introduced first. This Read More >
22nd January 2021
… and why ownership capital structures matter
Much is written about data in today’s world. Those that have it, and more importantly those that control it, are seen as the new masters of the universe. Some people say it is overcooked, but Read More >
21st January 2021
Nick Sleep is one of the greatest investors I’ve ever come across. Sleep managed the Nomad Investment Partnership for over a decade, along with his partner Qais Zakaria, delivering returns of 921% versus 117% for the MSCI World Index Read More >
20th January 2021
The research department behind this piece is run by Steen Jacobsen. A million years ago I worked with Steen Jacobsen on the trading floor of a large US investment bank. Steen was then, and still is, a brilliant, polemic mind. For 30+ years he Read More >
19th January 2021
Following a look at historical proptech impacts and then the current innovation and productivity challenges faced by the wider real estate industry, this final piece in our three-part mini-series will conclude by mapping the current proptech Read More >
18th January 2021
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
15th January 2021
The global financial crisis had a significant influence on the present tax framework – so how might the battering now being taken by state finances manifest itself in tax policy?
As the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, Rishi Sunak, stood Read More >
14th January 2021
In the early years of my career, I wanted to start my own business. Stories of entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley captured my imagination, and in 1994 I took the plunge. In 2000 we sold our business to a public company, and promptly watched the Read More >
13th January 2021
China’s position on the world stage is changing rapidly as it moves to become a strategic competitor to incumbent economic powerhouses. Not least because of the recent trade conflict between the US and China and its long-term fallout as well Read More >
7th January 2021
The paper of record in 2020 shifted dramatically to the most illiberal stance possible on the virus, pushing for full lockdowns, and ignoring or burying any information that might contradict the case for this unprecedented experiment in social Read More >
7th January 2021
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
6th January 2021
After lumbering around the $1trn-$2trn assets under management mark for quite some time, central bank policies in the wake of the global financial crisis were a long-awaited shot in the arm for the private capital industry.
Faced with Read More >
4th January 2021
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
3rd January 2021
In the fourth chapter of his professional memoirs, a Francophile continues his tales of Parisian real estate – and tells how comedy cabaret led to his big career break.
In my years at Hampton’s in Paris between 1983 and 1987 the markets Read More >
1st January 2021
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
30th December 2020
Many farming and food companies are investing or plan to invest in improving the sustainability of food production. This Craigmore commentary, the second in a three-part mini-series, examines the strategies of food companies and farmers to Read More >
26th December 2020
Pornhub, the world’s largest aggregator of pornographic videos, has been cut off from accepting credit cards. The company is only accepting cryptocurrency for its premium service at present.
It happened quickly. On 4 December, New Read More >
26th December 2020
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
24th December 2020
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 828.26 to 854.19 (+3.13%) compared with last month’s update. Currently the REIT index is testing the resistance of about 852 of a sideways consolidation Read More >
22nd December 2020
Regional property stocks reversed two consecutive months of falls in November as successful trials of vaccines in development raised hopes for an end to the pandemic. As a Joe Biden victory bred expectations of a more stable geopolitical Read More >
21st December 2020
Continuing our series on horse race syndicates, how sometimes tearing up the best-laid plans can lead to the greatest of luck.
The previous four articles on getting an edge in the world of horse race syndication concluded with suggestions on Read More >
17th December 2020
Most people today regard America’s experiment with alcohol prohibition as a national embarrassment, rightly repealed in 1933. So it will be with the closures and lockdowns of 2020, some day.
In 1920, however, to be for the repeal of Read More >
17th December 2020
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
16th December 2020
Continuing our three-part series on proptech, a look at the innovation gap in real estate.
Following our walk down proptech’s memory lane last week, today we will look at the real estate industry’s innovation gap. This in turn will set Read More >
16th December 2020
It was my friend and sometime neighbour John Stewart’s recent “Blog 7” which started me thinking about the discrediting of historical buildings as well as historical figures.
He was writing on Guiseppe Terragni’s Casa del Fascio in Read More >
15th December 2020
In the world of commercial real estate office leasing, the sublease market offers a less transparent subset of supply and demand that is difficult to track at best, and frustratingly illogical at worst. Because sublessors are in cost recovery Read More >
15th December 2020
Near-zero yields are making it difficult for pensions and endowments to hit the targets they need to meet their future obligations. It’s pushing disciples of the classic investing strategy of 60% stocks/40% bonds to get more creative.
As an Read More >
14th December 2020
Investment into Swedish and German care homes between January and September 2020 has increased by 80% and 21% year-on-year respectively, according to our latest research. These two countries accounted for 42% (Germany) and 23% (Sweden) of the Read More >
11th December 2020
So, just as one is beginning to adjust to the reality that there will be no Christmas trip home to Britain this year, no family gathering under the exuberantly giant tree culled from a neighbour’s plantation, no bleary eyed brisk Downland Read More >
11th December 2020
Along with air miles and an agenda, a passport was probably the least useful accessory of 2020. For those of us as familiar with business lounges as we were with sun loungers, this has been an unusual year. But the signs, for passports at least, Read More >
9th December 2020
Kicking off a three-part series on proptech, in its very widest sense, let’s look back first of all to the Stone Age.
Urbanisation has been a key driver for technological breakthroughs. But what was the catalyst for urbanisation and the Read More >
8th December 2020
Frank Gehry’s cultural centre in the Bois de Boulogne was born into controversy but is now accepted as a phenomenal piece of architecture whose structural gymnastics defy belief.
La Fondation Louis Vuitton, a remarkable building by any Read More >
8th December 2020
The consensus is that we are in a K-shaped recovery – that means winners and losers. We are not all in this together.
The unique shape of the covid-19 crisis and accompanying recession has meant some industries have thrived whilst others Read More >
7th December 2020
Last week we looked at historical lessons derived from prior pandemics. Today we will expand into determining the likely economic fallout of covid-19, consider the capital market feedback and map the way forward.
How do we value the covid-19 Read More >
4th December 2020
The property market was allowed to continue operating during the second lockdown, which was good news for the 500,000 or so current transactions that are proceeding (albeit slowly). However, strict protocols on viewings and valuation Read More >
3rd December 2020
Many people concerned about the possibility of inflation caused by the debasement of currencies, such as myself, were strongly influenced by the 2009 book by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time is Different, which catalogues the causes Read More >
3rd December 2020
What can real estate expect in 2021?
After rain there is sunshine, as a Dutch saying goes. And if you have as much rain as we do, you know what you are talking about. So, can we expect sunshine to return in 2021, after this very ‘rainy’ Read More >
2nd December 2020
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased slightly from 822.03 to 828.26 (+0.76%) on the monthly update. Currently the REIT index is currently back in trading on sideways consolidation, after recovered from a Read More >
2nd December 2020
Historically, political party control of the US government has not had much bearing on investment performance of commercial real estate. However, NCREIF data (since its 1978 inception) shows that Democratic administrations produced somewhat Read More >
1st December 2020
Equity investors might need to top up funds by tens of billions in Germany and the UK, thanks to covid.
Declines in capital values and more conservative lending in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis created a major Read More >
30th November 2020
When looking at a chart of the S&P 500, you would think we were entering a depression or nearing the apocalypse. But what are the real impacts of a pandemic like covid-19? The stock market is an easy gauge to follow for sentiment, but how Read More >
30th November 2020
A physical market cycle analysis of four property types across 54 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 3Q2020.
The V-shaped recovery happened (-32% GDP in Q2 then +33% GDP in Q3) but only for a portion of the economy. Any business Read More >
26th November 2020
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
26th November 2020
Each one of these trends is underpinned by a higher weighting afforded to individual needs, preferences and experiences – meaning that real estate developers and landlords can no longer take a cookie-cutter Read More >
25th November 2020
When 2020 dawned, no one could have fathomed what eventually would envelop the world and define how history will remember it for future generations – the covid-19 pandemic. As we near the end of a tumultuous year, market watchers will no doubt Read More >
25th November 2020
I yield to no one in my admiration for the office as a social centre, but it's no place actually to get any work done. – Katharine Whitehorn, View from a Column (1981)
The king is dead; long live the king. The dominance of centralised Read More >
24th November 2020
Two of our top contributors, Bill Blain and Ethan Yang, argue it out over bitcoin. Is it no more than imaginary money we'd be foolish to trust, or could it be a medium of growing substance that at the very least is telling us something Read More >
24th November 2020
The year 2020 has been exceptional in its radical push for adaptation in social and economic norms globally. In the last 20 years, we have seen a rapid increase in the movement of people, goods and services around the world. The modern global Read More >
23rd November 2020
The likes of LA, London and Mumbai are being challenged as consumer appetites becomes more global.
Media cities are hubs of creativity where films, television, and music are produced, edited, and consumed. A new analysis by Savills of media Read More >
21st November 2020
Why low bond yields may mean you need to rethink your portfolio construction.
The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets Read More >
20th November 2020
Retail REITs in Singapore have rebounded since phase 2 in Singapore began. In this article, we will be covering five predominantly retail REITs in Singapore, namely Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, SPH REIT, Read More >
18th November 2020
London’s West End, the ultimate UK town centre and home to hundreds of impressive landmarks and just 65,000 residents, was hit by the pandemic harder than other parts of the capital. But the famous central London area is not just responding to Read More >
18th November 2020
Who can resist being provided with a soapbox? The Property Chronicle asked whether, as a partner in a reasonably sized London law firm, I would reveal some of the black arts of solicitors, the most famously egregious being hourly billing and my Read More >
17th November 2020
It has been one of the few good weeks for ‘man’ (occupied offices and physical retail) versus ‘machine’ (logistics), with Landsec and British Land both up 20% but declines for Zoom (-15%), Amazon (-6%) and even the seemingly unstoppable Read More >
17th November 2020
In a development that will be viewed with alarm by all property investors, Germany’s politicians and government authorities are looking at whether the purchase of residential apartments should be restricted by law.
A recent meeting in July Read More >
16th November 2020
Forget the doomsayers: we are on the verge of a golden age.
Former US vice-president Dan Quayle once said: “The future will be better tomorrow.” Right now, I’m willing to risk the ridicule of using this statement. Although it might not Read More >
12th November 2020
As the pandemic disrupted life around the globe, nearly everyone’s routine changed, including the way we communicate with one another and how we send and receive data.
With an abrupt shift in the way we work, and a dramatic increase of data Read More >
11th November 2020
“I’d rather be dumb and antifragile than extremely smart and fragile” – Nassim Taleb, in Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (2012), p4
Looking beyond covid-19 (see our previous article), the future performance of real estate Read More >
10th November 2020
The statement has become almost cliché by this point, but when looking more closely at the indices that are commonly referred to as ‘the stock market’, one finds a more nuanced view.
True, the S&P 500 has performed uncannily well Read More >
10th November 2020
According to NPR, Ant Group, a massive Chinese financial technology company, was suddenly halted from listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange just days before its IPO date. NPR reports: “What was supposed to be the world’s largest initial Read More >
9th November 2020
On the ghoulishly appropriate date of 31 October – Halloween – Boris Johnson announced new lockdown measures. “These measures above all will be time-limited,” the prime minister assured the people. “They will end on Wednesday 2 Read More >
3rd November 2020
The broad-based REIT indexes were relatively flat last week, which was in tandem with the broader based indices.But the biggest talking point has been the two recent activist campaigns launched on Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) by Cygnus Read More >
3rd November 2020
I believe it is now time to bottom fish in Singapore property developers and selected REITs on SGX. Why?
One, Singapore benefits from US supply chain reconfigurations away from China and Hong Kong’s pro-democracy political unrest. Two, Read More >
29th October 2020
Like many of us, I had an iconic and charismatic high school teacher who left a lasting impression. He used to say something memorable about asking for forgiveness: “Apologise if you’re in the wrong,” he said, “but double down if Read More >
28th October 2020
Asia Pacific property stocks lost ground in September as risk aversion gripped investors, ahead of a US presidential election and continued concerns that a global economic recovery remains volatile.
Investors went on the defensive, even as Read More >
28th October 2020
Housing activity – starts and permits – posted strong results in September as the single-family segment made gains across most of the country while multifamily housing appears to be trending flat. Total housing starts rose to a 1.415 million Read More >
27th October 2020
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
27th October 2020
Early in the pandemic I advised readers to zone out, take a break, and read fiction and other works of art that have stood the test of time. There’s only so much crazy we can deal with and there’s only so much mental benefits to be had from Read More >
26th October 2020
FTSE ST REIT Index decreased slightly from 854.51 to 822.03 (-3.80%) on the month update.REIT Index has rebounded by about 45% as of 21 September from the bottom on 23 March 2020.Yield spread (reference to 10-year Singapore government bond of Read More >
23rd October 2020
Source: Ruffer, MacroHistory database, TS Lombard
Chancellor Sunak will need a Plan B.
The coronavirus pandemic has hit public finances like a war. Across the world governments have scrambled to offset the economic and social impact of the Read More >
22nd October 2020
We all need reminding of why investment returns are so important for so many in the private sector. Until the 1980s most employees retired on pensions provided by their employers and related to their final salaries. Employers put aside and Read More >
21st October 2020
Given the lack of relatively significant news in the wine market, this is the first report since early in the second quarter of the year.
In fact, it is fair to say that the world of fine wine has been relatively boring, and in this world, Read More >
20th October 2020
Since the industrial revolution, energy consumption and production has played a central role in economic development as it has set a path for many countries to move from a predominantly agrarian economy into a modern developed country. Petroleum Read More >
19th October 2020
The morning after Trump was elected, people in my university class were crying.
Fair enough, you think: you’ve heard about the emotional fragility of today’s youth, and perhaps you’ve read Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt’s Read More >
15th October 2020
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker reflects on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Norman Read More >
14th October 2020
The global monetary and fiscal stimulus implemented since the coronavirus erupted has been sizable, and policy-makers have acted with unprecedented speed. While it is recognised that this stimulus was necessary, the resulting increases in Read More >
13th October 2020
The world has been turned upside down by this pandemic, along with the prospects of many companies.
Perhaps some of your own holdings have soared to unexpected highs, or collapsed to unexpected lows. Several of my holdings certainly have. Read More >
12th October 2020
On 12 October 1864, Chief Justice Roger Taney, author of the Dred Scott decision, passed away. Abraham Lincoln (finally!) had the opportunity to replace that man. There was never a doubt that Lincoln would nominate a successor. On the other Read More >
12th October 2020
Predictions for prolonged British misery are based on fears of a no-deal Brexit and a pandemic second spike – but both risks carry little economic downside.
When any economy suffers significant job loss, three things need to follow to avoid Read More >
7th October 2020
Industrial and logistics (I&L) REITs in the Pacific Rim played an added-value and strategic role in multi-asset portfolios, according to our new analysis published in the Journal of Property Investment & Finance.
E-commerce is Read More >
7th October 2020
“Back to life, back to reality” – prescient words written by Mr Jazzie B. OBE for his number one hit in the summer of 1989. Industries, livelihoods and, undoubtedly, future geopolitical direction currently ride on the answer to when Read More >
6th October 2020
Retailing is going through a structural change and asset values are tumbling as the effect of falling rents and a lack of investment appetite feeds through to the market value of the properties. The impact of the covid restrictions has been to Read More >
6th October 2020
UK:
Total value of exports to EU 27 countries in February 2020: £13,869bn
As percentage of total overseas exports: 51%Percentage change since previous year: -7%
Percentage change in retail sales in April 2020 compared with last year: Read More >
1st October 2020
Rents are known to be volatile as demand and supply interact to create cycles. Rents are also known to vary enormously across properties based on their planning use class, location and condition. This article explores whether the rent setting Read More >
1st October 2020
Real estate probably isn’t one of the first industries that comes to mind when thinking about climate change – but it should be. Globally, the built environment is responsible for around 40% of energy-related carbon emissions, so getting to Read More >
30th September 2020
As the real estate industry looks to learn from the fallout of covid-19, one issue which should be at the top of the list is to recognise the glaring mathematical limitations in the traditional performance measurement models. Engineering a Read More >
30th September 2020
In this very special series of exclusive articles for the Property Chronicle, Australian property legend Norman Harker will reflect on his extraordinary 50-year life in real estate. He will pull no punches partly because, as he freely admits, Read More >
25th September 2020
What policy approach can support the advance of post-Brexit Britain both nationally, especially in our northern regions, and globally?
Contrarily, my starting point is Asia. Vietnam, a fertile coastally populated medium-sized nation near to Read More >
24th September 2020
Asia Pacific’s real estate focused stocks outperformed in August, edging ahead of the wider market. This was led by the wider GPR/APREA Composite Listed Real Estate Index, which returned 5.8%, powered mainly by the Australian and Japanese Read More >
23rd September 2020
What will be the lasting impact of the stamp duty holiday announced in July by the UK chancellor, Rishi Sunak? The holiday has been great for the vast numbers of purchasers who are acquiring UK properties up to £500,000 in value. The maximum Read More >
23rd September 2020
Here at CBRE Global Investors we are knee-deep in our semi-annual ‘global house views’ process, where we update all our real assets forecasts, risk-adjusted returns, model portfolios and preferred strategies. In the pre-covid days, the Read More >
21st September 2020
The late Anwar Sadat, when president of Egypt, called 1973 his autumn of destiny. I call 2020 my autumn of destiny because four of the world’s top software/fintech will go public in IPOs in Hong Kong or New York. Each of these IPOs will be Read More >
15th September 2020
There is talk that working from home has become so ingrained and old working arrangements so untenable in this new, socially distanced world that it will force city-centre offices to repurpose. When I hear such a claim that office blocks will Read More >
14th September 2020
Do Americans “vote with their wallets?” This near-ubiquitous cliche seems at first to pass the test of common sense. Why wouldn’t people vote for the candidates under whom they’ll do the best financially? A wealthy voter should favor the Read More >
10th September 2020
With yields averaging 3.35%, the asset category ‘multi-family housing’ is moving out of the ‘alternative’ sector and becoming ‘core’, according to property adviser Savills. Germany, with its disproportionately large rental market, Read More >
9th September 2020
Rapid changes are under way across the spectrum of different asset classes, and investors will need to adapt their approach.
Investors are working hard to assess what recent pandemic-driven changes will mean for different asset classes. In Read More >
4th September 2020
BACKGROUND
There has been much discussion and commentary concerning the presumed, hoped for, and anticipated days when we are in post-pandemic times. Questions abound, such as: When will life be back to normal? Will the rebound from the Read More >
3rd September 2020
The A-level exams were cancelled in March in response to the spread of COVID-19. Subject grades in the UK were originally awarded according to a teacher-assessed ranking of students at each centre and the expected grade distribution of the Read More >
1st September 2020
City centres and suburbs have been subject to both centripetal and centrifugal forces in modern times. During the first four decades after World War II, rapidly growing middle-class incomes in the Western world translated into expanding city Read More >
27th August 2020
German financial analysts are forecasting an increase in property foreclosures of at least 20%, and loan defaults of up to €100bn as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic, once the laws introduced on 23rd March to protect borrowers lose Read More >
25th August 2020
Inflation came in much stronger than economists anticipated across the major western economies in July, highlighting that the effects of the pandemic are not purely deflationary. In the UK, CPI inflation jumped up from +0.6% in June to +1.0% in Read More >
25th August 2020
FTSE ST REIT Index has little changes from 837.43 to 835.40 (-0.35%) on the month update.REIT Index has rebounded c43% as of July 12 from the bottom on Mar 23, 2020.Yield spread (reference to 10-year Singapore government bond of Read More >
18th August 2020
Source: FactSet, data to 31 July 2020. Download the data set
The US internet shares have been roaring ahead, particularly in recent months. The coronavirus crisis has accelerated the shift toward online retail and smart communications, Read More >
13th August 2020
The last 12 years have seen a myriad of crises in various areas - international relations, climate, economies and, most recently, a global pandemic. Though the economic repercussions of COVID19 haven’t been because of inadequate Read More >
12th August 2020
Everyone loves an underdog. Most certainly so when it’s wrapped up with extraordinary financial returns, scary new technologies like Bitcoin, and an establishment villain that everyone despises.
In Bitcoin Billionaires: A True Story Read More >
12th August 2020
WACC is an acronym that stands for “weighted average cost of capital” and this is one of the most important metrics we use in the REIT sector.
The WACC is similar to the required rate of return that an investor expects from his investment Read More >
11th August 2020
Impacts fast, recoveries slow
Just as tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods quickly change urban landscapes, so too economic disruptions, erratic business cycles, and pandemics impact real estate expectations and forecasts. Black swan Read More >
10th August 2020
Price discovery in the private real estate market is always a challenge when there is a sudden change in the market as we have now with COVID-19. As happened during past recessions, the number of transactions grinds almost to a halt Read More >
10th August 2020
The disruption and uncertainty permeating Australia’s economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will mark the local housing market for some time to come. Demand in the market is always a challenge to predict and even more so given the rapid Read More >
6th August 2020
What’s the solution to the great pandemic debt pile-up? Tax Britain’s housing wealth. According to James Kirkup, head of the Social Market Foundation think tank, writing in the Times, higher property taxes are both sensible and inevitable Read More >
6th August 2020
There are few forces more powerful than incentives. As usual Charlie Munger says it best:
Well, I think I’ve been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life I’ve underestimated it. Read More >
5th August 2020
There are about 6.3 million highly skilled tech workers across the U.S. and Canada that are leading global innovation. This subset of 20 technical occupations is known as “Tech Talent” and these professionals are the ones that have made it Read More >
4th August 2020
THE CORRELATION between being overweight and being in ICU with Covid-19 is so well known outside of Downing Street, that there is already at least one published Covid Diet. Like all diets it suggests that you eat plenty of protein, Read More >
4th August 2020
As coronavirus (covid-19) is reshaping the real estate landscape, property professionals need to rethink their approach to extreme risk events. It is now evident that mainstream risk management techniques are insufficient to deal with irregular Read More >
3rd August 2020
There is something slightly soul-crushing about the news that the Government is mulling a new digital sales tax to ‘save the high street’.
It isn’t just the prospect of ministers raising the cost of living for online shoppers at a Read More >
31st July 2020
With zero cases of Covid-19 in the community, New Zealand is one of the very few countries where life has returned to normal. After two months of lockdown, the country's property market is demonstrating healthy market dynamics on its road Read More >
30th July 2020
The US Dollar Index has fallen almost 6% since its March 2020 highs. This is no surprise given the sheer scale and speed of the Federal Reserve’s response to the pandemic – a $3 trillion rise in the balance sheet, a buying spree in US Read More >
30th July 2020
In the past 18 years, after a series of spectacular and occasionally failed rocket launches, Elon Musk’s SpaceX has emerged as Silicon Valley’s next colossus, a once in a generation business in the same league as an Amazon, a Google or a Read More >
29th July 2020
It is time to look again at a subject which pops up every now and then and this morning has done exactly that. From The Guardian:
The price of gold hit $1,865 per ounce for the first time since September 2011 this morning.
Gold has surged Read More >
29th July 2020
Another speech from Downing Street will not turn around the economy – a vaccine will.
In mid-July, Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave a speech suggesting that employers start bringing their staff back to work. In the coming weeks I Read More >
28th July 2020
The R rate has become synonymous with the COVID-19 pandemic. If R is above 1, infections rise exponentially, if R is below 1, the virus eventually disappears.
The impact of online spending on retail rental growth is also Read More >
28th July 2020
It is not news that the coronavirus has changed the real estate industry, in some cases irrevocably. The move towards home working has raised some questions over how offices will operate, while our dependence on efficient supply chains has seen Read More >
27th July 2020
From the beginning of this virus, political elites have used the language of war. The invisible enemy would be contained, suppressed, and beaten into submission. Then….it would go away.
The tactics would be travel bans, shutdowns, Read More >
26th July 2020
There is a raging debate in the UK about whether and how UK farmers should be protected from foreign competition in the execution of its trade policy. It threatens to divide the Conservative Party between their classical free traders and those Read More >
23rd July 2020
Last week witnessed a feeding frenzy from the crème de la crème of Wall Street’s smart money (and some Dubai’s smart money LOL!) to be part of the private market financing of Reliance Jio, the emerging supernova of India’s digital Read More >
23rd July 2020
In 1533-4, Henry VIII rejected the Pope’s authority and broke away from the Church of Rome, declaring himself Supreme Head of the Church in England. This country thus detached itself from a large supra-national institution that had Read More >
22nd July 2020
The coronavirus economic shock has already caused UK house prices to wobble – and they may yet tumble if the narrative worsens. As the virus changes society and the way we live, it will inevitably change the factors that drive the demand and Read More >
22nd July 2020
Macrobond Household Index
Euro Area:
Consumer confidence survey results for April 2020: -22Lowest number since survey started: -24Expectation of becoming unemployed in next 12 months: 62 (High)
Household gross total income in Q4 2019: Read More >
21st July 2020
Income-hungry investors beware: coronavirus fallout makes High Yield even higher risk
Value investing is dead! Warren Buffet knows nothing! Long live drawing random Scrabble tiles out of a bag to pick stocks!
So says day-trading Read More >
20th July 2020
THE IMPACT of the coronavirus crisis on London is becoming clear to see. Yesterday the Evening Standard laid bare the scale of the economic devastation to the British capital. Let’s take the headline numbers: “50,000 West End Read More >
15th July 2020
Investing is about competing visions of the future. Different perspectives on the outlook at a macro, market and asset level are embedded in estimates of an asset’s value. Given the long-term nature of real estate, understanding structural Read More >
8th July 2020
As placemaking is rapidly changing the urban landscape, the way we view real estate value needs to adapt to meet evolving community demands,wherepeople create places where they want to actually live, play and work. Increasingly, space in Read More >
8th July 2020
Even for the most absentminded amongst us (myself included), life offers unforgettable moments. Some are historically and globally impactful: Neil Armstrong’s ‘giant leap’, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, or the COVID-19 pandemic we Read More >
7th July 2020
After the shock of COVID-19, the U.S. industrial market is expected to bounce back stronger than previously forecasted.
In fact, demand will more than triple the previous forecast based on new metrics that CBRE Econometric Advisors has Read More >
3rd July 2020
As a former infantry officer, then international businessman, Parish Priest, and Chaplain to both metropolitan and county Police Forces, I have seen much of what works and what does not in corporate and institutional life. Today, the Read More >
1st July 2020
In my opinion, culture is probably the single most important thing in business.
A good business model can be destroyed by bad management and poor cultural practices. The recent example of Wirecard is a case in point, but there are many Read More >
1st July 2020
Call it what you will. The Covid-19 pandemic. The Great Lockdown. The Coronavirus Recession. Whatever label you give it, it remains unprecedented. Never in history has more than 60% of the global population come under this kind of lock-and-key Read More >
29th June 2020
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on German real estate began to be quantifiable in April, according to new figures released by property advisor Savills, and based on research provided by Bulwiengesa.
While investors transacted Read More >
22nd June 2020
Assuming the U.S. elections still happen in November 2020– how might that affect the U.S. economy and investment returns going forward?
While no one can yet predict the outcome of the November election – it may be instructive Read More >
19th June 2020
Once a month we will bring you an interesting chart with a short commentary. Our aim is to illuminate the corners of financial markets.
This time really is different - US unemployment is ‘off the scale’
The sheer scale of the Read More >
12th June 2020
Why understanding the sequence of investment returns is so important
For investors, the order in which returns arrive can make the difference between success and failure. Imagine you are saving for 25 years (perhaps to help your Read More >
10th June 2020
Blain's Morning Porridge - June 10 2020: A Wicked Game “It’s strange what desire will make foolish people do..”
Where do financial markets go from here? Yesterday headlines were screaming US stocks are now positive for the year! Today Read More >
9th June 2020
Coronavirus was the catalyst for the market turmoil, but it was the pathology of the financial world, and its interaction with the markets – not a prediction of a pandemic – which gave us our dispositions. The sharp falls, and the buoyancy Read More >
5th June 2020
It is my experience that, when travelling, the best way to understand a country is to follow in the footsteps of an artist or architect of that country’s culture. This leads to some unexpected results. On my last Read More >
4th June 2020
Michael Levitt is Professor of computer science and structural biology at Stanford Medical School and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry. He has been a close observer of the pandemic and the response from the outset through its movement Read More >
3rd June 2020
The policy response to COVID-19 has been extreme by most past standards. A simple look at the data tells us where we are concerning the past. What caused this response - I will not venture to explore - but at the root of it all must have been Read More >
2nd June 2020
A TV series about a struggling lawyer gives us some clues on what the post-Covid office might look like.
The announcement by Twitter that it will no longer oblige employees to ever return to the office has fuelled the “death of Read More >
1st June 2020
My World: June 2021...
This is part of a series of articles where our contributors describe how they think things will look a year from now.
The accelerated switch to e-commerce will boost demand for larger warehouses
At Tritax, Read More >
1st June 2020
It’s hard to overstate the power of incentives. Charlie Munger says: “Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome”.
The biggest factor determining how well incentivised you are is whether you own something. If you own your own Read More >
29th May 2020
It’s a bit of a bold statement, but before we talk about why, let’s first of all go through what’s in it. The black line is my composite valuation indicator for treasuries, and it’s showing them just over 2 standard deviations Read More >
27th May 2020
The rise in gold prices to $1750 an ounce, as I write, makes impeccable macroeconomic sense. After all, the Federal Reserve has increased its balance sheet by 65% since March alone, a policy response to the pandemic echoed by all the world’s Read More >
26th May 2020
The S&P 500 has dropped considerably since the advent of COVID-19 although well off the lows. Although the economy is slowly starting to open up, it seems inevitable that we will have at least a short-term Read More >
20th May 2020
The most significant policy innovation during the 2008-2009 financial crisis was Quantitative Easing (QE); the central bank purchase of financial assets using printed money. During and after that financial crisis many investors who Read More >
20th May 2020
The spread of coronavirus has required us all to change our behaviour. One of the most significant shifts as far as property is concerned is the abrupt switch to home working by most office employees. The majority have found this a smooth, Read More >
18th May 2020
My world: June 2021...
This is part of a series of articles where our contributors describe how they think things will look a year from now.
I see a friend on the way into the New York office building where I have a presentation to an Read More >
15th May 2020
The price level for German residential housing has remained so far unchanged since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, according to German consulting group F+B, whose CEO Bernd Leutner warned it would be wrong to make premature and knee-jerk Read More >
14th May 2020
There may not be many reasons for optimism about the economic outlook, but one is the relative flexibility of the UK labour market. This should help unemployment to fall back and activity to recover more quickly – provided government gets out Read More >
14th May 2020
(Article originally published Summer 2018)
Why agility is key for investors in dealing with new uncertainties
Seattle is the only market I’ve ever seen advance from secondary to primary market status. There are a few other secondary Read More >
14th May 2020
Many landlords, tenants in house-shares and neighbours of anti-social tenants will be filled with despair at the latest news that there may be a three-month extension to the current three-month moratorium on evictions in the private rented Read More >
13th May 2020
Balance sheets show the trade-off between resilience and optimisation
% of companies with net cash
Source: CLSA, Factset as at 21 April 2020
As we highlighted last month, coronavirus is especially dangerous for patients with Read More >
12th May 2020
Over just a few months, Covid-19 has disrupted almost every corner of the globe. In the residential market, this has led to transaction numbers drawing to a standstill in many countries as lockdown measures prevent sales. In Savills Research, we Read More >
8th May 2020
Farmers will gain new opportunities from carbon offsetting, which will change how land is used and valued
Investors are increasingly familiar with the concept of stranded assets: previously investible assets that a changing framework makes Read More >
7th May 2020
Proptech evangelists would have you believe that emerging digital technologies can and will be applied imminently to any real estate use, in the process resolving all of the industry’s current inefficiencies overnight. However, as the saying Read More >
7th May 2020
There aren’t many things capable of uniting hardline climate sceptics and the sort of far-left environmental activists you might find at an Extinction Rebellion rally. However, Planet of the Humans, a new documentary by Jeff Gibbs which Read More >
6th May 2020
The law has been quick to react to the current health emergency. First of course came the Coronavirus Act 2020, given Royal assent and commencing on 25 March 2020. The Act made contained multi-various provisions to deal with the pandemic in Read More >
5th May 2020
We are starting to appreciate some of the damage that the Covid-19 crisis is doing to the economy but in the western world the first warning lights came when stock markets lurched downwards in late February. In the past 6 weeks There has been Read More >
4th May 2020
Poland’s commercial real estate sector has just recorded what some reporters are calling it's "best-ever" first-quarter, which is quite something to achieve over the precise period in which the world was waking up to the horrors of Read More >
1st May 2020
There is no such thing as an Independent Central Bank. They are all the creatures of the states that own them. To those who thought otherwise the virus is changing the reality and rhetoric. Central Banks and treasuries are working together to Read More >
30th April 2020
An inevitable consequence of the Coronavirus will be the acceleration or magnification of existing trends – be it towards home working or the intensification of the shift from physical to online shopping. Doomsayers who have portended the high Read More >
29th April 2020
WE ARE TOLD that China is a challenge for the West, that its emergence as an economic power is a “Sputnik” moment for American leadership and will affect UK post-Brexit economic prospects. It’s said this requires a major Read More >
28th April 2020
Dear Friends and Colleagues,
1. Will agriculture finally out-perform energy?
This Commentary explores the likely pathways of food vs. energy commodities in the 2020s and ‘30s. It explores key factors including renewable energy and Read More >
27th April 2020
For most of human history matters of life and death lay almost entirely outside the material world. Saving a life at any cost feels to most of us like a moral imperative, but the astonishing leaps forward in science and technology that define Read More >
24th April 2020
The Stamp Duty and BREXIT issues that have beset the UK housing market for the last 3 years feel like a walk in the park (no pun intended) when compared to the current economic paralysis.
2020 felt like a new start, a chance to reset the Read More >
24th April 2020
“The economic mechanism of Europe is jammed.” - J M Keynes [1]
The Dutch finance minister Wopka Hoekstra is somewhat brazen. Like his German counterpart, he caused consternation across the Union by rejecting a Read More >
23rd April 2020
veryone agrees that people’s life and wellness are more important than GDP figures. But GDP figures are not only the invention of cold-hearted economists with nothing but monetary transactions on their mind. They capture something in the real Read More >
22nd April 2020
The go-to tool for puncturing outlandish conspiracy theories is Occam’s razor, the principle that the simplest explanation for something is also the most likely to be true.
For example, maybe Canadian pop star Avril Lavigne’s departure Read More >
21st April 2020
According to the old Sufi tale, a man and his son lived in a valley. They were happy but very poor and they wanted desperately to change this. So, feeling entrepreneurial, the man decided that he would breed horses. With money borrowed heavily Read More >
20th April 2020
In engineering, noise is a disturbance around a signal and engineers have become good at extracting signals from the noise. In investing, noise comes in many forms and actions are determined by noise, signals or a combination of Read More >
16th April 2020
The economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic should not be underestimated.
It is, in my opinion, likely to produce a severe recession in the UK as well as a global recession, and has already led to a swathe of dividend cuts and suspensions Read More >
16th April 2020
Having recently completed proptech investments in Unissu and Dashflow, I was interested to read Andy Saull’s article, “Proptech disruption won’t hit any time soon”, in the last issue of Property Chronicle. It introduced me to the Read More >
15th April 2020
Incredibly, I have been involved in preparing forecasts of the UK economy for 45 years. I have a reputation for making bearish calls – occasionally successfully – but have never produced, or agonised over, a forecast as terrible as the one Read More >
14th April 2020
This is the third article in our series on how to develop an edge in the world of racehorse syndication. The first two articles reviewed the trials, triumphs and tribulations of racehorse syndicates, then finding a system to beat the market. The Read More >
13th April 2020
Extensive records survive of Cromwell’s speeches during his years as Lord Protector (1653-58), and they tell us much about both the man and the age in which he lived. They reflect his intense religious faith and his grappling with Read More >
10th April 2020
Around the world, landlords of all types are being asked by tenants, or even required by governments, to waive rents, grant rent holidays or write off arrears as tenants struggle to stay in business and household incomes fall or Read More >
9th April 2020
The last few weeks has seen a great deal of ideological navel-gazing; from the end of globalism to the cancellation of capitalism, pundits are convinced this time is different, everything has changed, and once the dust settles they’ll have Read More >
9th April 2020
The price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has wreaked havoc on the global crude oil market. Brent crude, $74 a barrel just after the US drone hit on Iran’s General Soleimani’s motorcade in early January, plummeted to 2002 pre-Iraq War Read More >
8th April 2020
The property industry faces a ‘U’ shaped recession, which will lead to investors reshaping portfolios with liquidity in mind.
In early April, the PMI indices from IHS Markit were released for most leading economies, and they were Read More >
8th April 2020
Since the financial crisis in 2008, interest rates have been low and borrowing costs for commercial property similarly low. With such low rates, relatively high yields and seemingly ever-increasing values, many have chosen to use Read More >
8th April 2020
It is axiomatic of crises that things happen too quickly for decision makers to be able to plan ahead. Well they better be planning now. Desperate measures, little different to those used 102 years ago, have bought governments a second Read More >
7th April 2020
This is the second article in our series on how to develop an edge in the world of racehorse syndication. The first article reviewed the trials, triumphs and tribulations of racehorse syndicates. Future articles cover choosing your trainer and Read More >
7th April 2020
Germany’s residential market remains buoyant, despite deals taking longer to go through due to an operational slowdown in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
‘The market hasn’t stopped yet but deals are getting slower because of the Read More >
3rd April 2020
When the elements speak, elemental forces are unleashed, and it is important, in the middle of this storm, to capture the right tone of voice. Any false attempt to give reassurance, to boast about early success, to bury oneself in clichés, is Read More >
2nd April 2020
At some time last year, a bat passed on a mutated virus to a trafficked pangolin (a scaly ant-eater) in a wet market in Wuhan, China. Now, that same virus has spread to unknown thousands of people across the globe and there is only Read More >
2nd April 2020
Introduction
I think that it is fair to say the effect of the coronavirus worldwide is something that is unprecedented in our careers. I know that there are a few survivors of the “Spanish flu” of 1918/19 who are still alive but for most Read More >
2nd April 2020
It is generally perceived that as you build up your credit history, financial portfolio and investment experience, you’ll be better positioned to access and successfully receive new forms of debt. The reality, however, is far more complex. The Read More >
2nd April 2020
As I write on the 31st March, the reported number of global active cases of Covid-19 is around 786,000 with 37,500 dead. The number of dead is rising fast but still only equates to 0.0625 per cent of the 60 million deaths each year Read More >
2nd April 2020
This morning has seen a does of economic news from the epicentre of the current pandemic and hence crisis which is China. This is keenly awaited as we see how the economy responds to the pandemic. Sadly we seem already to be charging into what Read More >
1st April 2020
Investors who rely on dividends for a large part of their income should prepare for significant dividend cuts and suspensions in 2020.
In recent weeks, stock markets around the world have crashed as a direct result of the coronavirus Read More >
1st April 2020
The correct use of language may not appear to be a priority in our straitened circumstances, but the misuse of technical terms has a capacity to spread confusion and misunderstanding. This, in turn, leads to poor decision-making and financial Read More >
1st April 2020
All leaders, not just generals, tend to fight the last “war.” All readers of Hayek know why: they feel compelled to promulgate a response but lack sufficient information to make optimal decisions. They all have a vague sense that historical Read More >
1st April 2020
The Covid-19 crisis is a tough time for everybody: family, friends, business, we’re all suffering in different ways. In England people are only just having to get used to living in lockdown and it is likely to last a few more weeks yet. The Read More >
31st March 2020
The Covid-19 crisis is approaching its economic peak. Most Western economies are largely closed. Stock markets have been in freefall for several weeks, and may yet test deeper lows. Companies are in shell-shocked reaction mode, scrambling to Read More >
31st March 2020
This is the first of four articles on how to develop an edge in the world of racehorse syndication. The three future articles cover finding a system to beat the market, choosing your trainer and bloodstock agent, and structuring and managing a Read More >
30th March 2020
Data is either structured or unstructured. Structured data is neatly arranged in rows and columns, like a spreadsheet. Unstructured data is messy and disorganised. It shambles towards us as PDFs, Word documents, presentations, open-ended survey Read More >
27th March 2020
What do investors want right now? What are their preferred opportunities, and what do you need to know about them? This series sums up what one investment adviser has gathered from roadshows, conferences and meetings across Europe.
Heard in Read More >
26th March 2020
In terms of my political risk career, betting against Europe rising to superpower status—as many left-leaning commentators blithely predicated in the early 2000s—has, to put it mildly, not hurt me any.
This is not due to some hateful, Read More >
26th March 2020
Jo Welman’s thoughts about the macro investment outlook communicated to his investment clients:
At the close of business last night the FTSE 100 had fallen 43% in 2020 and the FTSE 250 which includes medium sized companies had fallen even Read More >
25th March 2020
In 2009 the GFC, which was responsible for severe asset value losses, resulted in a large funding gap between the debt position and the asset value. As this was essentially negative equity, fund managers were often struggling to attract either Read More >
24th March 2020
Of course the MIPIM should have been cancelled earlier. When the decision was finally taken by Reed MIDEM, the fair organisers, large swathes of the gathering’s registered attendees had already taken the decision not to travel to Cannes for Read More >
23rd March 2020
The battle that has raged for many years between the proponents of deflation and inflation has faded into irrelevance as it is increasingly clear that we are going to have both, in swift succession. The deflationists, like Albert Edwards, will Read More >
23rd March 2020
Awards are show business, mining a deep human need or peer approval. Formed and shaped for profit by producers. Staged and fronted by directors nurturing sector nabobs. Marketed and sold with ‘your rivals are on board’ whispers to sponsors. Read More >
20th March 2020
The Final Episode of our Crime Thriller set in the world of property
Following the deaths of property tycoon Charles Rudd and his CEO Nick O’Keeffe in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, insurance investigator William Rohm travelled north Read More >
19th March 2020
After decades of predictions, warnings, wagers, prophecies, and what must be many trillions of dollars expended upon short sales, long puts and written calls, hedges and directional bets of every sort: the long-awaited “big Kahuna” – a Read More >
18th March 2020
During 2019, the average capital value of prime residential properties across world cities remained flat, averaging an increase of 0.1%. This was down from 2.6% for 2018 and continued the slowdown in growth seen since 2016. The slowdown Read More >
18th March 2020
Amidst the clamour for local authorities to give planning permission for new homes more easily and more speedily, there is thankfully a mechanism for upholding the quality of new dwellings and their associated public realm: Design Review.
The Read More >
17th March 2020
Corporate debt markets look vulnerable.
Probability of a recession priced into asset classes at end of February
Source: JPMorgan, prices at 29 February 2020
February saw concerns over coronavirus go truly global, as cases emerged Read More >
16th March 2020
Unless you are a hermit living in a very remote cave, I’m sure you’re aware of the coronavirus pandemic.
And if you have any interest in investing, then you also probably know that stock markets around the globe have suffered what can Read More >
16th March 2020
A few weeks ago, plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport hit the skids when the Court of Appeal ruled the Government’s decision-making process unlawful. For the moment at least, with ministers preoccupied by both Brexit and the small Read More >
13th March 2020
What’s the better for dealing with pandemic disease: martial-law quarantines imposed by the state according to geography, or keeping society open while trusting medical professionals, individuals, families, and communities to make intelligent Read More >
13th March 2020
Louis Kahn’s greatest piece of architecture wasn’t a building at all – and wasn’t completed for decades after his death.
At Derwent London, we have always drawn inspiration from architectural past masters. One such was Louis Kahn Read More >
12th March 2020
Covid-19 may or may not trigger global recession, but financial market fragility is laid bare.
Here’s the conundrum: invest with the madness or against the madness? Credit and financial markets have become increasingly reflexive as Read More >
12th March 2020
Tim Green speaks to Paul Coates, Head of Debt Advisory and Structured Finance (EMEA) at CBRE.
Paul Coates has been with CBRE for just under two years, having joined to build out the company’s debt advisory platform across EMEA. He Read More >
9th March 2020
No one can accurately predict how long the Coronavirus will last or when effective vaccines can be rolled out, so all we can do is speculate, based on some logic and our past experience with SARS, which seems less serious and less deadly than Read More >
6th March 2020
It was a delight to discuss the Greek property market with one of my oldest investor friends in Dubai as our wives chatted over delicious Burmese Khowsuey in the patio of his villa under a starlit winter night in Jumeirah. Is Greece, like Read More >
6th March 2020
By signing the EU withdrawal agreement, the UK has put itself in a weak negotiating position for the establishment of future trading arrangements with the EU. However, the UK can still largely prevail in these negotiations if it prepares well Read More >
6th March 2020
CBRE’s latest research into Asian outbound real estate investment has uncovered some compelling new insights into buyer behaviour and their markets and assets of choice.
Firstly, Asian buyers are spending less on overseas property. Outbound Read More >
5th March 2020
German family offices are looking to increase the proportion of their investments held in residential property to around 40% by 2025, says a new report by Catella Research. Investor focus is steadily shifting from offices to higher-risk sectors Read More >
5th March 2020
The US dollar is the traditional safe haven currency during times of geopolitical or financial stress even when the cause of a risk aversion spasm is ultimately American, such as the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008, Obama’s epic budget Read More >
4th March 2020
The Department for International Trade has now set out the UK government’s strategic objectives for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US. After all the negativity about Brexit over the last few years, this paper is a welcome breath of Read More >
3rd March 2020
Last week equity markets concluded that the spread of coronavirus has major implications for economic growth and corporate profits. The sell-off in US equities was the sharpest correction since the Great Depression in 1933. It is a measure of Read More >
27th February 2020
The government has released a policy statement outlining, in broad strokes, what its new points-based immigration system, due to come into effect next year, is going to look like.
As anticipated, the biggest change is that freedom Read More >
27th February 2020
It’s been a rather excellent start to the vinous year, for I have been immersing myself in the joys of all things Piemonte, the jewel of NW Italy. Indeed, this was fully enabled by four days’ tasting amidst the rolling hills of the Langhe Read More >
25th February 2020
On an urban street corner, where Middlesex Street meets Whitechapel High Street in East London, lie the remains of a lost Shakespearean-era playhouse, the Boar’s Head. Its existence was already known due to references in historic records, such Read More >
24th February 2020
The British finally left the European Union last month. Ahead, in the negotiations, there will be much blood, much gnashing of teeth, and the devil will indeed be in the details. But, for the moment at least, the mood is of relief, that there is Read More >
21st February 2020
The real estate market in Dubai (or for that matter, the entire Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which includes the UAE – Abu Dhabi and Dubai – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman), has not been a happy place to be invested in Read More >
21st February 2020
Insurance investigator William Rohm has discovered that before they were drowned in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, multi-millionaire Charles Rudd and his CEO Nick O’Keeffe had been threatened by a vengeful crime syndicate, less than Read More >
20th February 2020
Within the field of postgraduate education there has been a growing interest in providing (and undertaking) part-time courses, which are of the same academic standard and rigour as full time courses, but allow students to “earn while they Read More >
20th February 2020
The new decade that was ushered in by the usual dazzling Burj Khalifa fireworks provoked some reflection on my part, for it was 10 years ago this year that I made the move to the Gulf.
Back then it was a leap into the unknown, where Read More >
20th February 2020
What on earth is going on?
MSCI developed markets growth versus value
Source: Minack Advisors †Ratio of growth/value one year ahead forecast EPS *Growth/value indices for MSCI developed markets
Gravity is a universal constant. But Read More >
19th February 2020
Full Employment Liquidity Trap" may sound like an oxymoron, but this phenomenon does exist in Japan, Europe and in many other places.
For example, both Japan and Germany have been stuck in a liquidity trap, where interest rates have fallen Read More >
14th February 2020
The Law Commission has now (on 09 January 2020) published its much awaited paper on reform of our system of leasehold enfranchisement, the process by which tenants who own their property on a long lease can extend the lease or purchase the Read More >
14th February 2020
It seems like every few weeks, a British minister says in no uncertain terms that there will be friction in the customs and administrative procedures between the UK and EU. Such pronouncements are followed by howls of anguish from the business Read More >
13th February 2020
Just as geopolitical headwinds eased in late January with a phase-one U.S./China trade deal and the U.K. formally leaving the European Union, worries about the Chinese coronavirus outbreak surged and the growing optimism on global growth Read More >
13th February 2020
Lisbon, Portugal’s capital, is the best performing property market in Western Europe, a magnet for investors from the EU and 8,000 plus non-EU citizens who have taken advantage of the minority Socialist government’s “golden visa” program Read More >
13th February 2020
The issue of wage growth is something we have found ourselves returning to time and time again. The cause is in one sense very simple there has been a lack of it. There are two components of this of which the first is just simply low numbers but Read More >
13th February 2020
5 decades of Moore’s Law (which states that computing power doubles every 18 months) means that in the 2020’s we will experience change at a pace that makes the current decade seem positively sluggish. A Trinity of Transformation, involving Read More >
12th February 2020
It's the time of year when my loyal half dozen readers expect a missive from the far end of the world. Usually a disaster, natural or man made accompanies my travels and this time is no exception.
The ghastly 'White Island' horror Read More >
12th February 2020
A month and a half after Saudi Aramco’s historic IPO on the Tadawul exchange in Riyadh, I conclude a few salient themes from its price action and trading patterns. One, the $2 trillion valuation sought by the Royal Court in the kingdom since Read More >
11th February 2020
Thankfully, I was not in the global markets during the Black Death, the Great Plague and the Spanish flu pandemic but coronavirus cases have now crossed 40,000 infections and this is way beyond a local Wuhan outbreak. Despite the blowout 225,000 Read More >
11th February 2020
We move to cities and we live in small groups when we get there. These two trends, urbanisation and smaller households, are contributing to housing shortages in cities across the world.
The challenge can be met by having the right sort Read More >
10th February 2020
“It promises to join up various portions of the metropolis with what has been described as an ‘inner ring’ represented by the Metropolitan District Railway. New lines will bring passengers from east, west, north and south to the District Read More >
7th February 2020
Philadelphia’s new downtown home for the Barnes Foundation’s stunning collection is a missed architectural opportunity – but worth a visit to check out the paintings.
A recent trip to the US included lunch with my godfather at the Read More >
7th February 2020
Simple comparison in property valuation involves greater complexity than some may assume – and it’s getting harder.
Comparison is the lynchpin of all valuations. In property, we use the term ‘comparable’ to describe the Read More >
6th February 2020
I have long maintained that films are powerful indications of the social mood and values of a society. Within that context, the comparison between two recent war films is highly informative as to the disparate perspectives on the importance of a Read More >
4th February 2020
The coronavirus epidemic may be centre-stage for epidemiologists and other health professionals right now, but it is unquestionably also a political economy event in China with important repercussions for the rest of the world and financial Read More >
3rd February 2020
It is impossible to gaze into a macro crystal ball without being forced to swallow crushed glass at the best of times. This is definitely not the best of times but I will take the risk of choking on shattered glass anyway and take you into the Read More >
31st January 2020
The inspectors who certify new UK homes as safely built aren’t apparently liable if the homes are defective. This can’t be right.
How safe are our homes? This is a question with a tragic resonance these days as the public inquiry into the Read More >
30th January 2020
The weekend just gone was one where an epidemic began to have more economic consequences. In a world where there appears to be a Trump Tweet for pretty much everything this one from Friday is not going so well.
China has been working very Read More >
30th January 2020
The history of infrastructure finance has much to teach us. Let’s look at Indian railway securities during the time of the British Empire and the role played by the Economist
The period 1880-1913, characterised as the first era of Read More >
28th January 2020
A single page of comic art can command prices of up to $1m – this isn’t just a market for sentimental collectors
“Everything you can imagine is real,” Pablo Picasso once said. Nothing could better sum up the appeal of collecting comic Read More >
27th January 2020
A famous quotation, probably erroneously dedicated to the financier J. P. Morgan, is that, when asked for an outlook on the stock market, he replied, “it will fluctuate”. The real estate market tends to fluctuate too, between two Read More >
27th January 2020
Farming uses too much land, thanks to wasteful practices and inappropriate incentives. Let’s plant trees and save the world instead
Woodland has a most remarkable effect on the climate, both at the extremely local level and as an essential Read More >
24th January 2020
Portugal has been a fabulously profitable market for a few prescient real estate investors from the UAE since 2015, with close friends telling me that prices of their apartments in upscale districts of Lisbon and Porto are up an incredible 50% Read More >
23rd January 2020
Following the deaths of property tycoon Charles Rudd and his CEO Nick O’Keeffe in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, insurance investigator William Rohm has travelled north to sign-off their big-money life policies. When he discovers that Read More >
23rd January 2020
To stop small clubs going under requires not extra cash but an independent body charged with developing the game as a whole
After death throes worthy of a B-movie murder scene and with a parliamentary committee picking over the bones and Read More >
22nd January 2020
What do investors want right now? Which are their preferred opportunities, and what do you need to know about them? This new series sums up what one investment adviser has gathered from roadshows, conferences and meetings across Europe
Heard Read More >
21st January 2020
Libya, more than any other province of the kingdom of black gold apart from Iraq, has been a tragic victim of the “oil curse”. Libya possesses 48 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, the largest in Africa, bigger than even Angola Read More >
21st January 2020
The looming crisis in list stocks and bonds is driving interest in alternatives – but their inherent illiquidity can defeat risk managers’ comprehension.
Alternatives is becoming a busy market. It would appear the global asset allocation Read More >
20th January 2020
The inter-generational transfer of wealth is a trend that has taken many analysts by surprise. With the asset-rich, baby-boomer generation slowly approaching retirement, their children and grandchildren are set to inherit an unprecedented amount Read More >
17th January 2020
WeWork, with its space-as-a-service model, began a chain reaction that will have a lasting impact on the commercial property market
The term ‘smart building’ first appeared in an Iron Man comic from 1994, according to Propmodo’s Franco Read More >
16th January 2020
What a difference a year makes! And why should the calendar matter so much, if at all? Many investors began 2019 with their performance in shreds, bracing for the worst. They finished 2019 boasting that global stock markets had posted their best Read More >
16th January 2020
UK average house prices have risen by over 160% in real terms since the middle of 1996. Home ownership remains around its lowest level for a generation. Among political leaders, policymakers and commentators there is a broad consensus that these Read More >
15th January 2020
A different model is poised to take over the British market, with brands that are personal rather than corporate
If you are looking to buy, sell, let or rent, how important is the brand or reputation of the agent you deal with? And is that Read More >
14th January 2020
Hyped-up, high-profile risks can distract from more serious but mundane threats to business
Social media and the 24-hour news cycle are putting businesses at risk as hype-up threats distracts from more genuine ones. Business risk assessment Read More >
13th January 2020
Investment pouring in from the south hasn’t yet brought down northern England’s higher yields.
It has been widely reported for several years now that rental yields are typically higher in the north of England than they are in the Read More >
10th January 2020
To counter new rules on gating amid concerns over illiquidity, funds are holding higher levels of cash. But does this really make sense?
As we edge towards a Brexit resolution (apologies if the big reveal has already happened by the time you Read More >
10th January 2020
After property tycoon Charles Rudd and his CEO Nick O’Keeffe are drowned in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, insurance investigator William Rohm is sent north to sign-off their big-money life policies. But when Rudd’s widow casts doubt Read More >
10th January 2020
The Gloomy Outlook for Returns & Pension Funds
This research note was originally published by the CFA Institute’s Enterprising Investor blog. Here is the link.
SUMMARY
The outlook for US equity and bond returns is low based on Read More >
9th January 2020
Human psychology can have a big impact on decision-making. We make cognitive errors on a routine basis by using rules of thumb and over-simplifications. We follow stories rather than facts. We are prone to social biases, such as groupthink and Read More >
9th January 2020
It wasn’t just Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party that lost the 2019 election – fiscal conservatism and proponents for small government took a hammering too. All the main parties promised increases in government expenditure, and most were Read More >
9th January 2020
The real estate industry has a lot to learn about human behaviour and happiness: dissatisfied occupiers won’t stick around.
Richard Thaler, the behavioural economist, received long overdue recognition when he won the Nobel Prize for Read More >
8th January 2020
Since last month’s general election, there’s been much talk about different types of constituencies, how they voted, and what the geography of party support tells us about how the country voted.
But it also matters for how the next Read More >
8th January 2020
Banning Airbnb investor units, as Boston has done, reduces market values by up to 40% – but should other social goals dominate?
Recently Boston decided to ban Airbnb-type rental units, suggesting that the growth of such short-term rentals Read More >
3rd January 2020
Simple comparison in property valuation involves greater complexity than some may assume – and it’s getting harder
Comparison is the lynchpin of all valuations. In property, we use the term ‘comparable’ to describe the transaction of Read More >
3rd January 2020
WeWork’s ill-fated IPO is the tip of an iceberg
WeWork revenue and operating losses and 'valuation' (US$)
Riddle me this. We eat $229,000 every hour, every day, year after year. We are in nearly 500 places at the same time. We lose a Read More >
2nd January 2020
The unthinkable has finally happened in a secretive central bank’s digital ledger in the heart of Beirut. The rating agency Fitch predicts imminent default on Lebanon’s sovereign debt, at $88 a colossal 185% of GDP, making the once “Paris Read More >
2nd January 2020
Long-term property returns derive from income and its compounding potential – that’s precisely what REITs were created to deliver
During the first half of 2007, Apple launched its first iPhone and the UK government introduced the REIT Read More >
31st December 2019
Several shocks, both positive and negative, have prevented the US economy entering an overdue recessionary phase
The US economy is in its longest economic expansion on record. The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.5% in September Read More >
30th December 2019
Ultra-low interest rates were only ever meant to be a short-term move, to stimulate investment. Where is the normalisation we were promised?
This has been a year in which, amid the many surprises that have made mugs of forecasters, the big Read More >
27th December 2019
As the global commodity price cycle begins its downward swing, Russia is set to be hit hard, forcing Putin to reassert himself – unless the West acts first
The impending worldwide recession will act as the final stage in the decline of Read More >
24th December 2019
If the property boom-bust cycle has permanently come to an end, what will that mean for investors?
I have previously written about the impact of low interest rates and quantitative easing on the Japanese economy in the 1990s and 2000s and how Read More >
23rd December 2019
It’s hard to know if debt refinancing at today’s rates is a gross distortion of reality or the shape of things to come
Are interest rate cycles a thing of the past? Have we entered an age of permanently cheap capital? It is astonishing to Read More >
20th December 2019
As a group, UK housebuilders have produced astonishingly good financial results over the last decade.
This has given their shareholders equally astonishing returns, with average share price gains from the largest housebuilders at close to Read More >
20th December 2019
After a difficult year for the global economy, is the turning point drawing close?
Twelve months ago, many in the property industry were concerned about an approaching downturn for the global economy. Sadly, those fears about 2019 proved to Read More >
19th December 2019
The demise of high street retailing in the UK has been a subject of national concern for some time – and even mainstream TV and radio has covered the issue from a variety of angles. The very public failure of big-name brands such as Read More >
19th December 2019
A political leader who has just secured a large majority has rarely regretted doing too much, too quickly. Boris Johnson’s extraordinary opportunity for radical reform of the structures of government and economy must not be wasted. The Read More >
19th December 2019
Pumping cash into the economy was meant to make us all better off. Instead the money got locked into stocks and bonds to enrich the wealthy, while austerity made everyone else poorer
The editor of this esteemed publication recently asked me Read More >
18th December 2019
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Charles Dickens’s chronicle about Paris and London at the time of the French Revolution in the 1790’s captures my feelings about the Arab capital markets in 2019. The best of times? Saudi Read More >
17th December 2019
Could this year be an inflection point for three key structural trends in the UK and European real estate markets?
The evolution of the European real estate markets is increasingly being influenced by structural trends, in particular the Read More >
17th December 2019
Policies, events and innovations intend to deliver predefined goals or solve existing problems, but unintended consequences often determine the outcome. Hence traders thrive on spotting unintended consequences and taking positions before the Read More >
17th December 2019
The markets go from strength to strength as the real world around them struggles to stay standing – surely this can’t last?
There’s a childhood game, whose name changes each generation – currently called Jenga. It starts as a wall of Read More >
16th December 2019
I have been thinking a lot about the James Bond villain Auric Goldfinger in 2019 – and why not? Spot gold has generated a stellar 17% profit in 2019 to date, despite King Dollar, the fall in the Volatility Index to 13 (minimal fear, maximum Read More >
16th December 2019
With so much capital chasing anything with a decent yield and without excessive risk, property remains attractive – but are these shares as cheap as they look?
The property sector has enjoyed a 10% rally over the last few months, advancing Read More >
16th December 2019
The rise of co-working and northshoring, along with increased infrastructure investment, are benefiting regional cities at the expense of London
While continental European real estate has become ever more expensive since the Brexit Read More >
13th December 2019
Following the deaths of property tycoon Charles Rudd and his CEO Nick O’Keeffe in a sailing accident, William Rohm has travelled to Liverpool to sign-off the life insurance claims. After meeting Rudd’s company secretary Guy Danvers, Rohm Read More >
13th December 2019
Anyone under the age of 40 will have little experience of the nationalised British Rail and few people know which parts are now in private hands and which parts are either completely nationalised or are tightly controlled by the Department of Read More >
13th December 2019
Watch share prices, brace for a bang.
“If something is true, no amount of wishful thinking will change it. - Richard Dawkins
Real estate currently beats any but the riskiest investment classes – doesn’t it? Provided interest rates Read More >
12th December 2019
Oliver Fenn-Smith has almost 30 years’ experience in the commercial and residential property sectors in the West End of London and is chief executive of The Portman Estate. The 110-acre estate has been privately owned by the Portman family Read More >
11th December 2019
Among the maelstrom of election news stories that broke yesterday was one that will be music to the ears of many free-marketeers. Responding to a question from a member of the public, Boris Johnson said that the BBC licence fee should be Read More >
11th December 2019
It’s time for another revitalising stroll, enjoying the stunning views and butterflies of this southern English isle
It’s not every day that you head to the station and buy a single ticket to Lymington Pier. This is the point where a Read More >
9th December 2019
In my previous life as a RE Fund Manager, I was not very interested in meeting other professional investors. But one of the best bits about being proprietor of The Property Chronicle is that I get to meet with, and hear what is on the minds of, Read More >
6th December 2019
In the past there has been scepticism about climate change. The scientific evidence has put paid to that. It is unequivocal.
Now, instead, the scepticism appears to be about whether economic growth can be achieved alongside addressing climate Read More >
6th December 2019
I was a tad unnerved by the thousands of views and hundreds of responses to my article that “This crazy bull market will crash and die in 2020”. Guess what? The Dow is down 700 points in the past two sessions – so my warning was priceless Read More >
6th December 2019
I just read a piece in Urban Land Magazinetitled "ULX: Smart Buildings." Smart in the UK typically means fashionable and expensive. In the US, it's clever or intelligent. It would be great if a building met both Read More >
6th December 2019
At the dawn of the 2020s, China is facing challenges that are perhaps the most serious since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976.
Until relatively recently, these were predominantly home-grown problems gathering momentum slowly over the last Read More >
5th December 2019
Nato’s birthday celebrations were marred by a row between two of the guests, Presidents Macron and Trump, over both the health of the military alliance and France’s decision to hit US firms with a new digital tax. This row has at least drawn Read More >
5th December 2019
Globalisation is under attack in ways which would be scarcely imaginable even just a few years ago. That the President on the USA now proudly brands himself ‘Tariff Man’ is testimony to this fact.
But it’s not just sloganeering – Read More >
4th December 2019
Labour’s plans to reduce rail fares by 33% takes from the poor to pay for the travel of the rich while inevitably providing less money for maintenance and upgrades.
As usual, with Labour’s giveaways of other people’s money, they are Read More >
3rd December 2019
November was a beautiful month for bulls on the North Sea Brent futures contracts traded on the London IPE and Chicago Merc. After all, Brent crude surged from $58 in late October to almost $64 now as I write. The wet barrel market prices in a Read More >
2nd December 2019
Trading sterling based on the eccentricities of UK polling data has been historically a mug’s game – an existential reality magnified by the traumatic fall in cable after the June 23 2016 shocker on the Brexit referendum. So I had a 1.30 Read More >
29th November 2019
Risk sentiment has improved further during the last month as the heightened recession fears that built over the summer are gradually getting priced out. Global equities have risen back towards their January 2018 highs, led by the US market; and Read More >
29th November 2019
I had recommended SAP shares at €82 in the Gulf financial press in early 2018 as its then CEO Bill McDermott committed the firm to the digital transformation of the UAE at Dubai’s World Government Summit. I published a second article on Read More >
29th November 2019
Recently released Government housebuilding data contains a pleasant surprise – the number of new dwellings in England was over 241,000. This is the highest rate of housebuilding in England since the target for 240,000 new homes a year for the Read More >
29th November 2019
This article is a republished version of one that appeared earlier in the year. Why? Because there’s another reason to sing about the virtues of Italian wines; the Trump administration have recently introduced a 25% tariff on all wines from Read More >
28th November 2019
One of the Conservatives’ key election pledges has been to cut business rates. In many ways, this is understandable, given the significant financial burden they represent for many small companies, especially retailers.
Despite the gross Read More >
28th November 2019
Imagine a British election that’s not – first and foremost – about Brexit. Given the one we’re having right now it’s tough, isn’t it? There are younger voters, now in their early 20s, who have gone to the ballot box a handful of Read More >
28th November 2019
I first encountered Lebanon as a teenager after the fabled Choueifat College opened its first UAE campus in Sharjah, fleeing the civil war in the Chouf. My ignorance of the country I was to know and love as my own patrie was monumental. When a Read More >
27th November 2019
It’s a dark day for Londoners.
Uber – the ride-hailing app which launched in the city in 2012 and has since revolutionised transport across the world’s major cities – has been handed an effective ban from operating in the capital by Read More >
26th November 2019
This morning has seen the first set piece speech of the new ECB President Christine Lagarde and it would not be her without some empty rhetoric.
The idea of European renewal may, for some, elicit feelings of cynicism. We have heard it many Read More >
25th November 2019
This Christmas, 126,000 children in England will be living in temporary accommodation, having been made homeless with their families. The failure by successive governments to build enough social housing has made it impossible for low income Read More >
25th November 2019
Government policies and elections affect house prices, but in what way and by how much? A new report from Birmingham City University researchers reveals why property professionals should take note when elections are in the air
The period of Read More >
21st November 2019
US Companies are paying shareholders more than they can afford
Dividends and buybacks have exceeded free cash flow levels since 2013
Source: Capital Group. Universe is made up of 2,902 non-financial US-based companies that represent Read More >
20th November 2019
Continuing this series on his life in property, Oliver Ash tells us about settling into his new life in Paris, and the peculiarities of some of his colleagues.
So I got the job at Hampton’s in Paris. The golf connection seemed to have Read More >
19th November 2019
The rural economy has extraordinary potential. Food production will always be the backbone of any farm, but landowners are now increasingly likely to be building affordable homes, renting holiday cottages, running renewable energy Read More >
18th November 2019
Boris Johnson’s decision to postpone next year’s planned cut in corporation tax is risky – both as a piece of politics and as economics. If anyone can sell it, I suspect that he can, but it’s still not necessarily a good move.
To Read More >
15th November 2019
After property tycoon Charles Rudd and his CEO, Nick O’Keeffe, are lost in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, Will Rohm has travelled north to sign-off the resulting big-money life insurance claims. Following a meeting with Company Read More >
14th November 2019
November 2019 is the thirtieth anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall that led to the collapse of the Soviet occupied, neo-Stalinist DDR and the eventual reunification of Germany forty-five years after the nightmarish end of the Third Reich. Read More >
14th November 2019
As ecological fears drive big changes in motor cars, now could be your best – and perhaps last – chance to invest in an unethical fire-breather
I don’t suppose for one moment that luxury and sports cars will become extinct, but for how Read More >
13th November 2019
This is the first in a series of articles covering some of the predominant issues regarding financial and economic statistics. This post seeks to introduce why and how statistics matter for investors.
The Why is simple: Read More >
13th November 2019
Archaeologists have been thrilled at some unique finds in a sixth-century princely burial site near Southend-on-Sea
In 2003 archaeologists from the Museum of London Archaeology excavated a small plot of land in Prittlewell, Essex, for Read More >
12th November 2019
At face value, high quality purpose-built units – complete with gyms, communal areas and concierge services – would appear to offer what the rental market has long demanded.
Whilst still in its relative infancy, build to let and co-living Read More >
11th November 2019
I literally laughed when I heard that Goldman Sachs put a valuation range of $1.6 to $2.3 trillion on the Saudi Aramco IPO. One, a valuation range of $700 million only means the Goldie analyst bankers (deal promoters?) are clueless about what Read More >
11th November 2019
The new PM shares his 19th-century predecessor’s charm, but on statesmanship skills it’s another matter
Our new prime minister is said to be an admirer of Winston Churchill, but a better model for Boris Johnson would be Lord Read More >
8th November 2019
Saudi Aramco is the biggest, most profitable company in history ($110 billion revenues in 2018, $40 billion more than Apple). It has been the economic engine of the Arab world’s preeminent superpower since Chevron geologists struck the mother Read More >
8th November 2019
The Restaurant Group (which I’ll shorten to TRG) joined the model portfolio in early 2016, shortly after the company published some very upbeat 2015 results.
Revenues were up 8% while earnings and dividends per share were up 13%, continuing Read More >
8th November 2019
Insofar as age has been an issue in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, the focus has been the advancing years of two of the frontrunners.
Seventy-six-year-old Joe Biden’s circuitous soliloquies and memory lapses leave many Read More >
7th November 2019
Introduction
The world can be viewed through the lens of economics and real estate markets in that whatever we do requires space, and whenever processes change it has both positive and negative impacts. You show me a more Read More >
6th November 2019
The governmental art of calling for an independent study is making sure you’ll get the answer you want before it begins.
Much of that depends, of course, on appointing the right person to carry out the research. The ‘independence’ part Read More >
6th November 2019
Unleashing innovation is the key to a new, improved British agricultural policy
As discussions on the future of UK agriculture continue, many have given voice to their dreams – and indeed their nightmares. The vision of the Department Read More >
5th November 2019
Benn Zemek is the Chief Financial Officer of the Battersea Power Station project. Benn joined the project in early 2013, shortly after acquisition by the Malaysian consortium (SP Setia, Sime Darby Property and EPF). He has since played a key Read More >
5th November 2019
Global population will soon start to fall, making much farmland redundant
The world is heading for demographic change more quickly than many foresee, bringing challenges of a kind not faced since the fall of the Roman Empire. We will Read More >
4th November 2019
Should letting agents be worried about the impact of new legislation?
The Tenant Fees Act 2019 or, as it’s more often referred to, the tenant fee ban, is a piece of legislation that came into effect on 1 June 2019 and basically prohibits Read More >
3rd November 2019
In 1945 and again in 1974, the Tories lost an election they had been certain to win. Why? And is it about to happen again?
If Boris Johnson loses the election on 12 December, it will be in the long tradition of Conservative governments that Read More >
1st November 2019
UK legislation enforcing minimum emissions standards for existing buildings can no longer be ignored
“A change in the weather is sufficient to recreate the world and ourselves,” or so said Marcel Proust 99 years ago. I wish he had Read More >
31st October 2019
After all the uncertainty in the UK we will have some sort of progress in that we will have an election putting the voters at least briefly in charge. Whether that will solve things is open to debate but let us take a look at what the economic Read More >
31st October 2019
The commercial property sector has slacked on sustainability, but smart monitoring offers cost savings which could change that
For everyone except Donald Trump – who seems to have buried his head under a rock for the past 50 years – Read More >
31st October 2019
Glory be, the International Energy Agency has declared that climate change is nearly solved – and it won’t require us all returning to medieval lifestyles or overthrowing globalised industrial capitalism, as Greta and Extinction Rebellion Read More >
30th October 2019
‘Rebalancing Britain’ is a major collaboration between CapX and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation focusing on how the Government should tackle the longstanding imbalances in the British economy. The project focuses not only on the Read More >
30th October 2019
What do high-net-worth individuals look for in a financial services provider?
It’s fair to say that now is an exciting, if challenging, time for the UK financial services sector. The market is moving at a rapid pace as new technologies and Read More >
29th October 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:A summary of Fund performanc
A summary of Fund performance
The table below shows the average Q3 2019, YTD 2019, 3 and 5 year returns for the mandates in our database. As can be Read More >
29th October 2019
They’ll soon be two-fifths of consumers, so financial advisers must learn to see the world their way
In today’s world things change fast, and it can be hard to keep up with new trends and the opportunities they bring, especially in the Read More >
28th October 2019
The new CRREM tool reduces the risk of properties being ‘stranded’ by non-compliance with changing regulations
Climate change represents an enormous challenge for real estate, requiring adjustments at numerous levels. The property Read More >
25th October 2019
Today has brought a flurry of information on the state of play in the UK housing market as we wait to see how the slow sown in house price growth is developing. We start by noting that according to the official series things may have changed a Read More >
24th October 2019
“Daddy, Daddy. Can we clean your car?”My then three and five-year-olds came bouncing up full of enthusiasm.
“How much?” I asked.
“£1”. Their opening offer.
50p. My counter offer.
“Deal”.
And Read More >
24th October 2019
The actual first rule of Fight Club is to get your retaliation in first.
It is this which explains the two linked stories today. Why are tech companies employing the likes of Nick Clegg and David Cameron? One is simply awaiting the Read More >
23rd October 2019
The credit crunch era has seen some extraordinary changes in the establishment view of monetary policy. The latest is this from the Peterson Institute from earlier this month.
On October 1, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government raised the Read More >
23rd October 2019
So after death throes worthy of a B movie murder scene and with a Parliamentary Committee picking over the bones and extracting embarrassing platitudes from EFL and FA executives, it looks like Bury FC are finally gone – kicked into hell by a Read More >
23rd October 2019
Britain’s housing crisis is unique in the Western world: in the 1970s, the average buyer needed under three gross annual salaries for a house. Now they need over seven.
In my recent book Raising the Roof, co-authored with Jacob Read More >
23rd October 2019
A planned new regulatory system aims to raise standards in a rapidly changing marketplace
Is competency finally going to be as important as competition in the UK residential estate agency market?
When in 1979 the Estate Agents Act Read More >
22nd October 2019
A recent legal case proves such restrictions on land are not necessarily an obstacle to development
Restrictive covenants on land can rob it of development value, burdening a potential site with limits on use and effectively handing control Read More >
21st October 2019
Bavarian logistics property company VIB Vermoegen is using an admirable combination of trusted partnering and smart geographical thinking
I want to talk here about a blue banana, but so as not to confuse you, let me explain first that this is Read More >
18th October 2019
Today I wish to address what is one of the major economic swizzles of our time. That is the drip drip feed by the establishment and a largely supine media that inflation is good for us, and in particular an inflation rate of 2% per annum is a Read More >
18th October 2019
It is not only Extinction Rebellion who say the UK should no longer try to get our growth rate up. The Green Party and many others are inclined to agree. But there are very strong reasons for believing that this is not the right approach – Read More >
18th October 2019
Political risk factors have put the UK property market on pause, especially in London – but there are rewards to be had
Political risk factors have put the UK property market on pause, especially in London – but there are rewards to be Read More >
17th October 2019
Do you know much about Dar es Salaam? Perhaps you might only be vaguely aware of this remote coastal city in Tanzania. But by the time your grandchildren are your age, more people will live there than in all of France.
Population Read More >
17th October 2019
How technological advances will reshape the real estate sector
Without new data systems to monitor and respond to market forces, property companies will fall behind the curve as new technologies are adopted. Real estate has always been a Read More >
15th October 2019
Property investors have an unfortunate habit of not looking very far ahead
The real estate sector has a propensity to underestimate change, perhaps because change has historically been at a rather glacial rate within the industry. In my 30 Read More >
15th October 2019
When two businessmen are drowned in a sailing accident in Liverpool Bay, Insurance Investigator William Rohm is sent north to sign-off the claims. It should be routine. But as one of the dead men is multi-millionaire Charles Rudd, a property Read More >
14th October 2019
Short on London, long on Europe was the traders’ cry after the referendum – but things didn’t quite work out as expected
Three years on from the referendum, we still cannot fully apprehend the effect of Brexit on the European real Read More >
11th October 2019
At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, the market mood is sombre. It does, however, remain reasonably steady amidst a turbulent sea of macro factors.
Hong Kong is an important market for wine and the ongoing protests are a concern. The Read More >
11th October 2019
It is exactly 20 years ago that Prologis stormed into Europe and transformed the landscape of property funds, announcing it had raised $1.07bn of equity for its first European fund. This was a game-changer for the European markets, and not just Read More >
10th October 2019
According to a recent article, the latest thing to worry about is the water content of food. That’s not to say the water in the food itself, but how much was used in production.
It’s a superficially appealing complaint, but one that Read More >
9th October 2019
In September, parent company WeCo pulled its IPO and announced that Adam Neumann would step down as CEO, as the conflict of interest between Adam Neumann’s funding requirements and Softbank’s valuation concerns came to an end. Here, we look Read More >
9th October 2019
More likely those yield falls are just an anticipation that policy-makers will cave in and cut interest rates
US political adviser James Carville is reputed to have said: “I used to think that, if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come Read More >
9th October 2019
For the first time ever, September’s UN General Assembly Meeting included a high-level meeting on universal health coverage (UHC), a broad initiative to promote policies that lead to better health outcomes.
The unprecedented advances in Read More >
8th October 2019
Today is my little boy’s sixth birthday. And as I sit here waiting for him to get home from school, ready for the joy and the chaos of his party, I can’t help but smile at his presents and the ever-so predictable train set.
He absolutely Read More >
8th October 2019
Exploring the outcome probabilities of the UK’s split from the EU
Febrile. That’s the word most commonly deployed to describe the state of British politics since the EU referendum of 2016. I recall being on College Green – that patch of Read More >
8th October 2019
There’s a childhood game, whose name changes each generation – currently called Jenga. It starts as a wall of wooden bricks, and successive players remove individual pieces until the loser takes one out, and down falls the edifice. Its drama Read More >
7th October 2019
My personal collecting habits go back to the early iteration of Panini football sticker albums. Before the days of internet and easy access to ‘missing’ stickers, the endless frustration of yet another Glen Hoddle or my fifth Peter Shilton Read More >
5th October 2019
A few years ago I was on Bloomberg one morning and said something like, stocks looked overly expensive and should be due a correction if it wasn’t for the support they were getting from company buybacks and the low relative yields on bonds. Read More >
4th October 2019
Alexander Chartres of Ruffer tells Property Chronicle how past crises inform the wealth manager’s outlook as the world economy approaches a turning point
On the wall of Ruffer’s office in a modern glass block on London’s Victoria Street Read More >
4th October 2019
The 21st century global economy is characterised by a number of trends, including the growth of cross-border trade in services, among others such as e-commerce. For Britain, focusing on services plays to its strengths as a largely services-based Read More >
3rd October 2019
It’s going to be relatively short comment today – I just spent the last 1 ½ hours standing all the way from Southampton to the City. SouthWest Rail decided to reduce the busiest Up train of the day to 5 carriages. I suppose Read More >
3rd October 2019
REITs are becoming what they always should have been: low-leveraged balance sheets and long-term income streams with a sustainable, growing dividend
Three features stand out for me in the quoted property sector this year. First, the Read More >
2nd October 2019
Suddenly the alternative assets world has become much more difficult. Three fund management companies, GAM, Woodford and H20, have scared the little cotton socks off investment committees, prompting an outbreak of extreme caution. These three Read More >
1st October 2019
Global financial markets seem increasingly disconnected from real world events – keep your eyes on the macro trends
I’ve spent 35 years in finance, and much of the market activity I’m watching just doesn’t make sense any more. Am I Read More >
30th September 2019
John McDonnell has promised that a Labour government would reduce the average full-time working week to 32 hours within a decade, with no loss of pay. This would allow many people to work four days a week, rather than five or more, and enjoy a Read More >
30th September 2019
How seriously should we take warnings that prices could fall by a third or more?
It goes without saying that we are in a period of extreme uncertainty. The main cause, of course, is Brexit, and the question of whether Britain can achieve an Read More >
27th September 2019
Against a backdrop of Westminster turmoil, the British economy has proven itself to be more robust than many predicted. But with many expecting a global economic downturn, it’s difficult to quantify the impact the current uncertainty is having Read More >
26th September 2019
Tim Green speaks to Caroline Rouse, chief financial officer at Noé Group
Caroline Rouse has more than 25 years experience as a finance director within the commercial and residential property sectors and is CFO at the Noé Group, a Read More >
26th September 2019
Episode one of our new crime thriller serial, set in the world of property
Will Rohm was hoping his drive north would be fast and uneventful and that this case would be trouble-free too. It was a big-money life insurance claim but if he could Read More >
25th September 2019
With British Land and Landsec both reputedly ripe for new leadership, how do the legacies of chiefs Chris Grigg and Rob Noel compare? And what’s next?
Ignore gallery chatter that Landsec will either bloom or wilt when 55-year-old chief Read More >
24th September 2019
Back in sticky, sweaty July, discussion over lunch turned to techniques for getting back to sleep at 4am. I confessed that my trick is to watch old political footage on YouTube, including conferences and US Presidential speeches.
Worse Read More >
23rd September 2019
Investors chasing growth stocks creates both danger and opportunities
PE premium for UK growth stocks over UK value
Stock market manias always start with some grounding in solid fact, before investors get carried away and drive up Read More >
23rd September 2019
With Bordeaux and Burgundy offering lacklustre returns, the trading focus has moved to Piedmont, Champagne and the Rhone Valley
The second quarter of 2019 was largely tranquil for the fine wine market, with trade bobbing along nicely but no Read More >
20th September 2019
Cross-border transactions now account for a third of property deals, and the most transparent markets hold the most appeal
Investment in many mature real estate markets is booming and this has been the case for about ten years now. At the Read More >
20th September 2019
On 28 August, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced he––with the Queen’s approval––was going to suspend Parliament between 10 September and 14 October.
The decision has been seen by many as an attempt to move the UK one step Read More >
20th September 2019
Why did the Fed Ease?
Last night’s Fed decision was anything but unanimous with 10 of the 17 members dissenting – views ranging from no cut to a larger ease. Powell described a “solid outlook” for the US economy but warned of Read More >
20th September 2019
It’s not such a crazy question. For the last hundred years or so – as long as aircraft have been an important part of economies – governments have claimed ownership of the airspace above our heads. Individuals or corporations may own land Read More >
19th September 2019
On Wednesday 19th September, The Property Chronicle attended the launch of the much anticipated Brunel Building, the latest building designed by Derwent London.
The Brunel Building is an architectural landmark for Paddington, providing a Read More >
19th September 2019
Although the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for last week’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing plant, the audacious operation looks like the handiwork of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is Read More >
18th September 2019
Last Monday, the Government capitulated to the Opposition’s attempt to bind its hands on Brexit via Hilary Benn’s bill (now the European Union (Withdrawal) (No.2) Act 2019) mandating it to seek and agree an extension of Article 50.
Having Read More >
18th September 2019
In the 34 months since November of 2016 the U.S. unemployment rate has declined -1.2% through August 2019. Across the counties that President Trump campaigned in, the average decline has been roughly -1% (through July 2019).
In Read More >
18th September 2019
As We Co, the parent of flexible office provider WeWork, prepares to now IPO later this year after postponing its September launch, many in the property industry are still struggling to define WeWork: is it a competitor, a client or just a Read More >
17th September 2019
Tech-driven real estate brokerage Purplebricks released its 2019 results last week. After a failed U.S. expansion, the core U.K. business is still growing and remains profitable, but is facing headwinds in a soft property market. The results Read More >
17th September 2019
We all know the classic four categories on the risk-return graph, Core, Core+, Value-Add and Opportunistic. These investment strategies are widely used, but are also arbitrary as investors define Core, Core+, Value-Add and Opportunistic Read More >
16th September 2019
Proper regulation is needed, while far-reaching leasehold reform must accompany changes to the building safety regime
Residential property management is broken and the regulation of managing agents long overdue. Not just from a financial Read More >
13th September 2019
A good walk is a tonic, but it must meet certain criteria – and here’s one that ticks all the boxes
There’s plenty of evidence linking walking with wellbeing. It’s partly about giving the lungs a good workout and unleashing those Read More >
13th September 2019
With an election on the way, all parties will be looking for ways to fund their pledges. The IPPR has a proposal that should appeal to parties on both the left and the right: reform our tax system so that those who earn their income from wealth Read More >
12th September 2019
By Richard Barkham, Global Chief Economist; Neil Blake, Global Head of Forecasting; Wei Luo, Associate Director, CBRE.
The UK’s long-term average share of global real estate investment is about 13%. Until early 2016, the level of UK Read More >
12th September 2019
The political drama in Westminster last week was pure Sophocles, as nemesis gutted Boris Johnson’s hubris. Boris Johnson’s agenda for a “do or die” hard Brexit was killed by two humiliating defeats in the House of Commons parliamentary Read More >
11th September 2019
The House of Commons has again opted against providing the two-thirds support needed to hold an early general election. However, it will be hard to avoid one for much longer. And although the outcome remains far from clear at this stage, it’s Read More >
11th September 2019
Since the 1950s, accessibility using some form of time/distance measure has been considered a determinant of land use in American city and transportation planning theory and practice. But, due to the functionalist orientation of education and Read More >
11th September 2019
There has been no shortage of serious-sounding warnings about the profound threats to capitalism in recent years. I would know. I’ve written some myself — including for this website.
You don’t have to look far to find cause for alarm. Read More >
10th September 2019
Wall Street folklore contends that four data points reflect the interrelationship between the price of money, interest rates, the price of currency (US Dollar Index), the price of gold and price of crude oil, the four heartbeats of global Read More >
10th September 2019
So now we know for sure. Thanks to Grant Shapps, Westminster’s biggest open secret is finally out there. HS2 is actually going to cost considerably more than we were told four years ago.
For us at the TaxPayers’ Alliance, this is a Read More >
6th September 2019
With the support of the Atlas Network, CapX is publishing a new series of essays on the theme of Illiberalism in Europe, looking at the different threats to liberal economies and societies across the continent, from populism to Read More >
5th September 2019
Last week South Australia announced it would be lifting its ban on the growth of genetically modified organisms (GMO). Starting December 1st, 2019 farmers in this state will have the ability to choose what types of crops they want to grow. The Read More >
4th September 2019
Today marks 80 years since the UK and France declared war on Nazi Germany following the invasion of Poland. Much is rightly said about the heroism of our armed forces, and the doughty attitude of civilians. Perhaps less heralded is the way Read More >
4th September 2019
Unskilled immigration is a problem, we are told.
People argue about how to restrict unskilled immigration, and by how much: lots of people favour points-based immigration systems so we can restrict unskilled immigration while continuing to Read More >
3rd September 2019
John McDonnell’s latest bright idea is that private sector tenants should have the right to buy the homes for below the market price. As perfect an example of McDonnell’s incapacity to think through an economic problem would be difficult to Read More >
3rd September 2019
What do low-income voters in deprived areas want post-Brexit? How can political parties unlock opportunities for people on low incomes?
Three years after the EU Referendum in 2016, our political system is experiencing a crisis of Read More >
30th August 2019
40 odd years ago, Jon Hunt hit upon the idea of shaking up the Estate Agency business, creating an organisation that was very much out of his mould. I don't know him per se but by all accounts he is a dominant individual with an acute Read More >
30th August 2019
With shorter construction times and cheaper manufacturing costs, are prefabricated homes set to become a trend that developers and investors alike should pay attention? The REalyst investigates whether modular homes are indeed becoming valuable Read More >
30th August 2019
Whilst many of us were baking in in the sunshine on bank holiday Monday, the Berlin Senate cooked up its freeze for residential rents in Germany’s capital. That rocked the sector on Monday, neutered by a dead cat bounce yesterday, and steady Read More >
29th August 2019
“So many of the parishes in our district are merrily approving more houses around their village,” an official from Oxfordshire fumed to me last month, “and that’s against Council policy!” I had to pinch myself: living in London, it’s Read More >
29th August 2019
A continuing upward trend makes this a good defensive asset class amid global uncertainty
Early this summer the FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts index broke through the 875 level after 10 years of resistance, with a Read More >
28th August 2019
As the global economy slips into the deep pit of despair, many market commentators are crying out for global central banks to wake-up and save the day. While many are intensely commenting on policymakers in Washington and the Global Trade Read More >
22nd August 2019
Last week saw the long- trailed publication of the Regulation of Property Agents Working Group report, introducing a raft of proposals to regulate sales, letting and leasehold managing agents in what has until now been essentially a collection Read More >
21st August 2019
Successful political parties are coalitions of interests. The Labour Party was founded as the Labour Representation Committee in 1900 to bring the socialist movement together under one banner to fight parliamentary Read More >
20th August 2019
Newspaper headlines over the weekend had suggested that the new Chancellor, Sajid Javid, was planning to switch the liability for stamp duty from house buyers to sellers. Thankfully, Javid has now quashed this story in no Read More >
20th August 2019
When winter bites, there are few better places to escape to than New Zealand. I’m just not too sure about the names of the sports teams. ‘Tall Blacks’ and ‘White Caps’ anyone?
A degree of smugness accompanies those who leave these Read More >
19th August 2019
In April of this year, Government made clear its intention to consult on the abolition of Section 21 of the Housing Act 1988, more commonly known as ‘no fault evictions’. Its stated objectives; to ensure that tenants have the security they Read More >
19th August 2019
How sporting terms enter the mainstream
In 1976, a Canberra cricketer who had moved there from Western Australia complained about the quality of the local pitches, which were not like those in his native Perth where “the ball bounced truly Read More >
19th August 2019
How did WeWork get such a high valuation if its making such big losses?
After some debate in the office and lots of commentary from various talking heads about the subject, I sat down and read the company’s S-1 filing and kept reading Read More >
15th August 2019
Burgundy continues its slide, but Bordeaux might be coming into its own.
In the same way the media in March was completely dominated by Brexit, so was the wine market. Instead of squabbling and jostling for position, however, the main players Read More >
14th August 2019
Over the last few weeks of protests in Hong Kong, culminating in the violence in the Legco building last week, most people have rightly concluded that:
at best, the end of the ‘one country two systems’ m.o. will be Read More >
14th August 2019
Pesticides and GM crops: the facts
We live in a world of instant communication and 24-hour news, where the power of social media alone means any story can be transmitted at the press of a button. Such technology is both exciting and fantastic Read More >
13th August 2019
Uncompromising in his vision, architect Peter Zumthor faces his toughest challenge to date
Not long after his celebrated thermal baths were completed, Peter Zumthor, a reclusive Swiss architect, gave a rare lecture at the Royal Institute of Read More >
12th August 2019
Those who live in glass houses may not have enjoyed a recent verdict. But legal protection for privacy has not been weakened – quite the reverse.
You will probably have read in the newspapers about the flat owners in the all-glass Neo Read More >
9th August 2019
The Centre for Cities recently suggested England should end its housing crisis by ‘turning Japanese’ and copying their planning system.
One can see the attraction. Japan uses a system of zoning where the government sets out in Read More >
8th August 2019
What poor countries really need more of is supermarkets.
That’s the conclusion to draw from the latest leaked report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Of course, it’s not what the usual environmentalist suspects are Read More >
8th August 2019
Architectural character on the big screen
As revealed in the last edition of The Property Chronicle, it’s pretty clear that in Hollywood movies of the past, architects have traditionally been cast as the Good Guys: creative, socially Read More >
7th August 2019
Just days in to the Johnson Premiership and there should be little doubt where we are heading. Dominic Cummings may revel in his contempt for Westminster Village groupthink, but this time the Prime Minister’s special adviser might have to Read More >
7th August 2019
Farms are peculiar assets. Returns are undeniable – but inaccessible. And subsidies, it seems, only make things worse.
Farms are capital-intensive businesses, with land, buildings, fixed equipment, working capital for labour, livestock, Read More >
6th August 2019
The Bank of England’s latest round of bank stress tests in November 2018 painted a reassuring picture of bank resilience. The message was that the UK banking system is now so strong that it can come through another crisis that is more severe Read More >
6th August 2019
Why the industry must be an active force in driving change
“Sustainable investment is about the responsibility and potential the real estate industry holds to reach climate and environmental sustainability targets. In a rapidly urbanising Read More >
31st July 2019
Having spent the first part of July in Shanghai and Hong Kong the differences between these Chinese mega cities are stark.
Shanghai with 23 million people dwarfs Hong Kong’s population of 7.5 million. It is also less crowded and Read More >
31st July 2019
Weebles Wobble but they don’t fall down..”
In the headlines this morning
Blain’s Financial Porridge Podcaston Website (Subscribe to Audioboom podcast or go via Spotify or iTunes (Other channels Read More >
31st July 2019
A five-year review of the real estate debt demand
Twenty-nineteen marks five years since Laxfield Capital, a commercial property lending company, released their first report on the demand for debt in the UK property market. Such a report, Read More >
30th July 2019
But first, the industry must digitise
News broke in March 2019 of the first successful global blockchain real estate transaction. It included participants from established organisations, such as Ashurst, Baker McKenzie, Barclays, Clifford Read More >
29th July 2019
As the new Chief Secretary to the Treasury (CST), Rishi Sunak has one of the toughest jobs in government. The CST’s main responsibility is the control of public expenditure – even more challenging than usual given the political Read More >
29th July 2019
With the recent interest in Mars’ mineral resources, how far are we really from realising interplanetary living?
I’ll admit, I did listen to the Bowie classic to get some inspiration for this article. Although the lyrics seemed to be Read More >
26th July 2019
Robert Jenrick, the new Secretary of State for Housing, wrote a striking call in 2017 to boost home ownership by building homes on government land and selling them at cost to the under-40s of that area. In the South East, that could mean a 75% Read More >
26th July 2019
As she exits the political stage pursued by a blond bear, Theresa May’s mind will inevitably turn to the question of ‘what next’?
As for the immediate future, she might follow John Major’s example. Hours after losing the top job in Read More >
26th July 2019
Despite the best possible conditions, hundreds of species of bird are dying out before our very eyes. It may be too late for some – but action can still save others.
It is possible that part of my life’s work in conservation on the Read More >
26th July 2019
No one wants the internet to be a source of harm. Our industry has always carried with it the optimism with which the internet was born. The ability of a single individual to speak to the whole world, to be connected with the all the learning Read More >
25th July 2019
Never in my life. Will I again witness such moments of utterly magical sporting drama. If a scriptwriter had penned the conclusion to the 2019 Cricket World Cup, they would have been laughed out of court. And told to pull themselves together. Read More >
25th July 2019
“In general, life is better than it ever has been,” P. J. O’Rourke wrote in All the Trouble in the World. “If you think that, in the past, there was some golden age of pleasure and plenty to which you would, if you were able, Read More >
25th July 2019
The hidden benefits of Britain’s new railway are vast. The only problem is they’re hidden
In recent months there has been no shortage of ill-thought through articles in the British press urging the cancellation of High Speed 2, a Read More >
24th July 2019
Brent crude oil plunged almost 4% from $67 to $63.50 a barrel after both President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo signaled progress in reducing geopolitical tensions with Iran in the Gulf. Iran Foreign Minister Javed Zarif's Read More >
24th July 2019
Boris Johnson will survive the first hundred days of his Premiership if he delivers a Brexit divorce deal. There will soon follow opportunities for other events - a Budget, a Queen’s Speech, a General Election – to set out detailed plans Read More >
24th July 2019
Common difficulties and how to avoid them
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are a favourite asset class for income seeking investors looking for regular dividends. However, there are a number of difficulties regularly experienced by Read More >
23rd July 2019
Britain’s housing crisis is uniquely severe. We build houses more slowly than anyone else, we have seen a fastest house price rise than any developed country, and our homes are the most expensive houses compared to the average salary.
Quite Read More >
23rd July 2019
With the PSOE coming out on top, Spanish prospects are only looking up
Pedro Sanchez’ gamble to call a snap election has paid off. His PSOE (the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party) has become the biggest party in parliament, with its share Read More >
22nd July 2019
Populism is in the ascendancy in today’s political environment. Loosely defined as any ideology that separates ‘the people’ from a ‘corrupt elite’, populism has existed in various forms over the last century. While it’s often Read More >
19th July 2019
One of the many problems with John McDonnell is that he doesn’t understand how markets work.
His latest outlandish claim is that Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister will increase the value of the pound. And this really, really, Read More >
19th July 2019
Homeownership in the U.S. is still being held back by two key demographic and lifestyle trends.
The millennial generation has delayed marrying and delayed starting families, both traditional trigger points for moving out of multifamily rental Read More >
18th July 2019
Fifty years ago today, Neil Armstrong, Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin and Michael Collins took off from Cape Canaveral in a Saturn V rocket as tall as a football pitch is long. Five days later they stepped out onto the surface of the moon, the first Read More >
17th July 2019
Figure 1 shows the CBRE ‘real time’ G7 economy tracker, made up of the best and most timely monthly economic data.
The main developed economies (U.S.A., Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, U.K.) known as the G7 have slowed Read More >
17th July 2019
New research shows that lending at the end of a cycle always leads to disaster. The industry just can't seem to help itself
The CRE property lending industry seems to be magnetically attracted to accelerating its lending activity towards the Read More >
16th July 2019
How forging a new path in the property market can reap big rewards
I have several guidelines to which I have mostly adhered when investing. Amongst others, this includes targeting high yielding properties: properties with sustainable income Read More >
16th July 2019
Unless there’s an extraordinary upset in the Tory leadership election, Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister next week. What kind of government are we going to get?
Could this be the start of something extraordinarily significant, Read More >
16th July 2019
The S&P 500 index trades at 2990 as I write. The risk-reward calculus on the broad index no longer flashes a buy signal to me. The economic data around the world has deteriorated at an accelerating pace, as the decline in global PMI’s, 9% Read More >
12th July 2019
There is a big difference between being pro-freedom and being pro-business, and the public health debate illustrates this point very well.
Whilst advocates of authoritarian ‘nanny-state’ programmes often like to paint a picture of a Read More >
12th July 2019
The crypto-bulls have regained their mojo now that Bitcoin is at $11600, though $2000 below its most recent peak. While financial history tells me parabolic moves always end in tears, the current euphoria does not surprise me. Facebook’s Libra Read More >
12th July 2019
Whichever candidate takes the keys to Number 10 later this month, the change of Conservative leader and Prime Minister looks set to mark the end of the net migration target.
As politics move on, those looking to advocate for a fresh approach Read More >
12th July 2019
Most large funds hate development risk – but there are real success stories out there. You just have to avoid the more spurious schemes…
Monday morning’s first call is from an old market chum asking if I’ll meet his latest client. He Read More >
11th July 2019
Nonfarm payrolls rose to 224,000 in June, the highest since January, thus popping the bond market consensus that the Federal Reserve would turn ultra-dovish at the July FOMC. Average hourly earnings are up 3.1% on an annual basis, another nail Read More >
11th July 2019
The internet has opened a huge window onto the range of products and services available to consumers, and revolutionised the way we purchase them. In the UK alone, E-commerce sales have rocketed up fifty-six per cent from £375.1 billion Read More >
10th July 2019
Widespread disaffection, income-inequality, Brexit and Donald Trump – will it get better?
I sense that summer 2019 in London is going to be a disruptive hell.
Climate change protests in April were both extraordinarily polite and Read More >
9th July 2019
When the Governor of the Bank of England speaks, it is always worth listening to, and he is on to something when he writes about market liquidity; he is surely right to flag the dangers of the narrow exit doors in a crowded investment room. We Read More >
9th July 2019
In some quarters the proposed solution to Britain’s housing problems is lots and lots more social – ie below market rate – housing.
For the more extreme, this should mean local councils building, owning and renting out the dwellings. As Read More >
8th July 2019
When I stepped out of the lift and onto the trading floor at Hoare Govett in Heron House 35 years ago, I am certain that employee wellbeing was not at the top of the senior partner’s agenda. Whilst the stresses and strains of the Read More >
8th July 2019
Governor Chris Patten and the Prince of Wales watched forlornly as the Union Jack slid down its flagpole for the last time as Hong Kong morphed from Her Majesty’s Crown Colony to a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of the People’s Republic Read More >
8th July 2019
A ray of hope for the central London property market
The prime central London market has been a tough place over the last year, with a continuing decline in both flats and houses. Against the trend of the past four years, flats in 2018 Read More >
8th July 2019
We’ve sized up the opportunity in the suburbs and analysed the resurgence of the commuter town. In this article, the REalyst weighs in on the facts and figures, looking at how suburban demographics are shaping the rental market on Read More >
5th July 2019
How Brexit and the minority government pose a problem for international investors
Three factors continue to cause political instability in the UK.
The first and most important is that Britain is being run by a minority Read More >
4th July 2019
That the robots are coming for all our jobs is entirely true. That this is a problem is less clear – after all, we’ve been trying to kill off jobs since we first started automating anything at all by replacing fingernails with knapped flint. Read More >
4th July 2019
“I know of no country in which there is so little independence of mind and real freedom of discussion as in America.”
In the headlines this morning
Subscribe to podcast
Happy birthday America! This morning’s intro-quote is over Read More >
4th July 2019
To be sure, UK politics are in flux. A vocal huddle of mostly Remain protesters, and occasionally Leavers, have occupied a spot opposite the Houses of Parliament for the past two years. Voters have voiced at the ballot box their anger at the Read More >
3rd July 2019
As the current political impasse continues, the situation bears a resemblance to the events of 1931. As King George V once did, will the Queen advise?
On 24 August 1931, King George V called for a meeting at Buckingham Palace. There attended Read More >
2nd July 2019
New figures released show High Street estate agents taking an increasingly large market share as online operators continue to crumble.
According to the fortnightly update from The Advisory, a consultancy that monitors housing market Read More >
2nd July 2019
The wine world’s spin doctors are up to their usual hype. But last year’s weather has made for a fascinating vintage.
It’s that time of year again, when the latest claret vintage roars into view. There is the usual trumpeting, words Read More >
1st July 2019
Much as I believe in Samuel Johnson’s maxim, that a man bored of London is bored of life, I still find an escape from London invigorating. It offers clarity as well as new insights. Accordingly I recently escaped with a few friends for an Read More >
28th June 2019
US equities markets went ballistic after the Federal Reserve confirmed Wall Street consensus that it will cut the overnight borrowing rate by 50 basis points if the economy weakens. This did not surprise me. The current Fed Funds target rate is Read More >
27th June 2019
A new survey by one of the sector’s most respected lenders, Paragon, suggests large scale landlords are now a bigger force in the buy to let sector following the exit of some small amateur landlords.
Paragon’s survey is small - just 200 Read More >
27th June 2019
Rumours of the agency’s demise are premature. And even if such disruptors fail, the fortunes they are spending on marketing could change customers’ expectations forever.
If you believe everything you read in the media, you could be Read More >
26th June 2019
“France has no friends, only interests…”
In the headlines this morning.
When the Fed Chairman has to say he’s “insulated from short-term political pressures”, then you know his ears are bleeding from a full up-to 11 Trump rant. Read More >
26th June 2019
It is no secret that the United Kingdom’s economy is imbalanced. London and the South East are head and shoulders above the country’s other regions with respect to economic indicators like gross value added per capita and median real Read More >
26th June 2019
The Property Chronicle speaks to Jim Nolan, CEO and founder of Black Dog Hill
Operating since 2007, Black Dog Hill is a family-run vineyard in Ditchling, Sussex. The Nolan family didn’t have to travel far to find one of the world’s Read More >
25th June 2019
It is commonplace to say that the pace of technological change is speeding up. From Twitter to online shopping our everyday lives are, apparently, being transformed.
One of the central puzzles of modern economics is that this change is not Read More >
24th June 2019
The chiffchaff, willow warbler and wood warbler are not easily distinguished from one another, except, as discovered by the curate of Selbourne, Gilbert White, at the end of the 18thcentury, by their respective songs.
To the casual birder Read More >
24th June 2019
Plus, is the AirBnB boom coming to an end?
I write this camping beneath the canvas cover of a tent – a novel experience for me. I should add, though, the healthy caveat that I am glamping. Essentially, a luxurious form of camping. Camping Read More >
21st June 2019
In the face of declining retail property values and highly leveraged companies, a new structure might be needed
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have been a huge success globally, providing an income-producing, liquid, tax-efficient Read More >
20th June 2019
Why high-net-worth individuals are struggling to secure mortgages
It might seem counterintuitive to some, but high-net-worth (HNW) individuals often face difficulties when securing mortgages.
In February 2019, Butterfield Read More >
19th June 2019
Emoov and Countrywide: what a pair, observers might say.
They present a tale of two failures - although, in the case of Countrywide, it’s still theoretically possible that victory could be snatched from the actively-snapping jaws of Read More >
19th June 2019
It is impossible to analyze the real time dynamics of the global oil market without a grasp of the myriad domestic/regional economic, diplomatic and national security dilemmas that govern the formulation of Saudi Arabia’s oil pricing strategy. Read More >
19th June 2019
On his immensely popular HBO show last Friday, the host of Real Time with Bill Maher observed, “Not every movie set in the future has to be a super clean utopia or a smouldering post apocalypse.” “Isn’t there something in Read More >
19th June 2019
Post war British economic policy and house-building
Macroeconomic policy frameworks followed by governments have definite impacts on all sectors of the economy including the housing sector. Post Second World War the British government was Read More >
18th June 2019
I had forecast a collapse in the Pakistani rupee to a 160 – 180 range against the US dollar and a plunge in the Karachi stock market index to 32000 after PMLN Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was sacked by the Supreme Court at the behest of the Read More >
18th June 2019
Politics, emigration and the modern family are only a few of the challenges of wealth and succession planning today
There is no lack of data on the vast, and growing, amounts of wealth set to be passed from generation to generation in the Read More >
17th June 2019
With so much negativity around CVAs, are they the only answer?
Increased footfall, falling unemployment and rising wages meant that the stars should have aligned for the UK’s high street retailers in the first quarter of 2019. Yet Read More >
14th June 2019
Tim Green speaks to Richard James, Chief Financial Officer of Savills Investment Management
Richard James is the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Savills Investment Management (Savills IM), the wholly owned but independent investment Read More >
14th June 2019
Watch the video trailer for the latest edition of our magazine. The new issue is out now and includes a selection of brilliant articles from our expert contributors.
Subscribe now!
The latest issue of the magazine includes:
World’s Read More >
13th June 2019
Poor old Sainsbury’s. Its share price is currently lower than at any time over the last 25 years and appears to be in free-fall.
But how can this be? Surely Sainsbury’s is a defensive dividend payer with a long record of unbroken dividend Read More >
12th June 2019
Back in 2007, left behind by the likes of the US, the UK and (shock horror!) France, the German government moved with its customary celerity to create its own REIT sector. A year before, and two years after Emmanuel Valavanis and I had set up Read More >
12th June 2019
‘If membership of the Eurozone had been confined to the original ‘Deutschemark Block’ - Germany, France, Holland, Belgium and Luxembourg which met the Euro’s initial convergence criteria - the Euro could have been a success. However Read More >
12th June 2019
Thanks to the orchestrated bullishness of a dozen Wall Street sell side analysts and the mother of all short covering rallies, Uber has managed to claw back its losses from 38 to its IPO offer price of $45 though the latest management disaster Read More >
12th June 2019
More people. More cities. More buildings. More infrastructure.
Infrastructure is turning out to be an asset class that, while appearing mostly immeuble, is fundamentally different from real estate requiring, among many things, strong and Read More >
11th June 2019
The Physical Market Cycle Analysis of 5 Property Types in 54 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
The economic expansion has been solid with 1Q GDP growth at 3.1%, which also drove continued job and wage growth so far in 2019. Trade Read More >
10th June 2019
Unusual, yet awe-inspiring, the Ronchamp chapel has to been seen to be believed
I must confess that I am slightly privileged by the fact that, working constantly with architects, I am occasionally offered trips to see buildings of interest, Read More >
7th June 2019
In the following monthly series of articles Oliver Ash tells the story of his initial steps in the field of real estate, how this took him overseas to a new life in Paris, how he navigated the financial crises of 1991 and 2009, how real estate Read More >
7th June 2019
The dynamics of the UK’s housing crisis are well-documented: millions prevented from getting on the housing ladder, sky-high rents for often woefully inadequate accommodation and, underpinning it all, a planning system seemingly designed to Read More >
7th June 2019
President Trump’s visit has been the excuse for another burst of scaremongering about what a US-UK trade deal might mean for the NHS. You might expect dire warnings about ‘profits before people’ or ‘the Americanisation of healthcare’ Read More >
6th June 2019
“Every unresolved problem eventually creates something worse to solve it…”
In the headlines this morning...
I switched on the TV this morning and watched Naga sitting on the Brek-drek couch in Normandy, then a cut-away to a Piper at Read More >
6th June 2019
Have you been to The Bahamas?
I was just in beautiful Nassau. And there’s no description for those waters other than 'exquisite.'
In fact, it's hard to take your eyes off of the stunning array of blues and greens, while you breathe in Read More >
5th June 2019
Citigroup, the third largest US money center bank, owns subsidiaries in Latin America whose pedigrees go back almost a century. For instance, Banamex, Citi’s subsidiary in Mexico, is the second largest corporate/retail bank south of the Rio Read More >
4th June 2019
One cynical – but useful – view of modern technology is that it allows us to play through the scams and mistakes of the last few millennia at warp speed. Bitcoin and associated cryptos have gone through every fraud that anyone’s been able Read More >
4th June 2019
Thoughts for the month ahead: Yipes! President Trump shocked the markets on May 10th by doubling down on tariffs against all Chinese imports. Last Friday, he again shocked everyone by threatening 5% tariffs, starting June 10th, Read More >
3rd June 2019
“Is it OK to still have children?”
That’s a question that bothers the environmental consciousness of Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Comedian Bill Maher thinks that he has the answer. “The great under-discussed factor in Read More >
31st May 2019
No you have not missed a footie championship. The heading refers to the EU Parliamentary Elections last week, in which I stood and following which have been returned to Brussels as an MEP, for the Brexit Party, representing London.
I Read More >
30th May 2019
If investor confidence was affected by the stock market slides of ‘Red October’, it seemed to have returned with the arrival of spring 2019 and a highly anticipated series of IPOs. Following Lyft’s going public in March, around $5.1 Read More >
30th May 2019
Waves of political and economic uncertainty have become something of a norm for markets in recent years. Against a backdrop of significant events – from US-China trade tension to Brexit - investors are taking extra caution with their asset Read More >
29th May 2019
As you might very well know, real estate investment trusts, also known as REITs, are legally required to pay out no less than 90% of their taxable income. That’s how they’re structured to operate in the U.S., and they’re not allowed to Read More >
27th May 2019
The number of people leaving the capital hit a 10-year high in 2017, with 292,000 people deciding that they had enough of the Big Smoke. With much talk of London affordability and sizing-up opportunities in the suburbs, are we seeing a Read More >
24th May 2019
By Brad Thomas and Michael Boyd
Sometimes, you’ve got to switch it up to keep your portfolio properly diversified. That’s why this isn’t the first time we’ve sung the praises of buying into alternative asset classes.
When people Read More >
24th May 2019
When France built its high-speed rail network, it revolutionised the way we looked at train travel. What takes 4-5 hours by long-distance bus from Brussels to Paris can now be completed in just over an hour with a Thalys train. Dumping slow Read More >
23rd May 2019
Fifteen years ago this month, on May 1, 2004, the European Union welcomed eight new member states. The “Eastern Enlargement” saw Eastern European and Baltic countries join the EU. Since then, other countries further to the east like Romania Read More >
22nd May 2019
UK long dated index-linked bond price
Image Source: Ruffer LLP and Bloomberg (UK 2055 index-linked bond)
We live in extraordinary times, and looking at recent political developments, both here and abroad, there is a risk that they Read More >
20th May 2019
Despite the global fame of its brand ambassadors Leonardo DiCaprio and Snoop Dog, Alternative faux meat specialist Beyond Meat (symbol BYND) electrified Wall Street with its white-hot IPO. The recent panic in financial markets and rising Read More >
17th May 2019
A version of this article first appeared in the May 2019 edition of the Forbes Real Estate Investor.
Every May for the past 20 years, I’ve made a pilgrimage up to Las Vegas. I call it a pilgrimage because it’s a long flight with Read More >
17th May 2019
There is often a great desire for the keen student of architecture to see buildings in the flesh rather than as idealized photographic images which are so accessible in books and, especially now, on the internet. So how do you see the Read More >
17th May 2019
Last year I was asked to give a presentation on the challenges facing Western policymakers. We ranged widely across a depressing set of subjects, from stagnating incomes to inequality, public sector austerity, job insecurity and the rise of Read More >
16th May 2019
Few tears will be shed for the disappearance of a considerable portion of Sir Philip Green’s fortune. According to The Sunday Times rich list, his Arcadia empire now has no net value. For many, this will be seen as a timely Read More >
15th May 2019
When Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss made the bold call for one million homes to be built on the green belt, some were quick to point out that such a policy wouldn’t necessarily receive a warm welcome from voters.
Will Tanner, Read More >
15th May 2019
For a year or more after the 2017 election, your columnist’s most frequently asked question from politicians, journalists and many others, was why the polls have remained so stable, in spite of all the political turbulence. That has completely Read More >
14th May 2019
As we look forward over the coming year, British agriculture is having to manage uncertainty – much like any other sector. Britain’s departure from the EU is not the only issue. Farms are also having to take on board the full implications of Read More >
11th May 2019
Most of the people alive now are incredibly fortunate compared to almost all of their ancestors. According to the World Bank, less than 10 per cent of the world’s population is now living in absolute poverty, at the edge of bare subsistence. Read More >
10th May 2019
Data is all the buzz around real estate, but how do we categorise it, what data do we need, what are the concerns and why should I care about the content of the local water supply before I consider whether to purchase a real estate Read More >
10th May 2019
‘In the early morning the shirt factory horn called women from Creggan, the Moor, and the Bog.’
The lyrics of Phil Coulter’s popular song, ‘The Town I Iove so well,’ evoke a time when Derry, under fire in the early days of Northern Read More >
9th May 2019
On Friday, Uber will aim to raise as much as $9 billion on the New York Stock Exchange in an IPO that could give the ride-hailing company a market valuation of nearly $90 billion. What is expected to be the biggest US IPO of the year so far has Read More >
9th May 2019
Summary: Last summer saw 44,740 ‘new builds’ constructed in the UK - a 12% increase to the previous quarter. But, does this indicate a seasonal pattern in the property market? The REalyst digs deeper into the data to determine the Read More >
8th May 2019
For most investors 2018 was a year to forget and from peak to trough, the FTSE All-Share index lost about 16% of its starting value.
For many this was too much to take and several subscribers informed me of their decision to exit the stock Read More >
7th May 2019
The Uber IPO is absurdly overvalued on NASDAQ
Uber Technologies goes public in the most controversial and global tech IPO since Facebook seven years ago. Uber bulls claim that the ride sharing colossus is another embryonic Amazon, a Read More >
5th May 2019
The Committee On Climate Change is the panel of experts that is supposed to give impartial advice, based on the very best science, to the politicians. The problem is that they don’t appear to understand the underlying science being discussed. Read More >
4th May 2019
How will we cope with the costs of an ageing population? Yesterday, in an article for The Daily Telegraph, David Willetts made the case that this will soon become the issue in British politics.
His piece was prompted by a new report from Read More >
4th May 2019
The shale revolution in the United States has been of huge significance. Not only is that nation meeting its own energy needs but it has started exporting both oil and gas. It is astonishing to consider that only a decade ago few had heard of Read More >
3rd May 2019
A recent Supreme Court case in the UK could have a serious impact on some long-term investors’ plans
Not every legal case is relevant to property investors, but be assured this column is devoted to showcasing only those recent decisions Read More >
3rd May 2019
Much has happened since my last Brexit forecast but I reckon that odds on the core Brexit outcomes might have remained remarkably stable. The ‘No Deal’ option has evaporated for the time being while according to hints in the weekend's press, Read More >
1st May 2019
Thought for the month ahead: While many Americans focus on who the Democrats might nominate for president next year, President Trump and China's President Xi hope to conclude a trade deal. The markets are counting on it Read More >
30th April 2019
One of the great success stories of the modern world has been the sustained increases in life expectancy we have seen in recent decades, and which are projected to continue for the foreseeable future.
The fact we are living longer, healthier Read More >
29th April 2019
How to earn double-digit returns from Polish property
As readers of my articles might recall we have, for many years, been earning double-digit returns from our property investments in Poland. There are many factors which have contributed to Read More >
26th April 2019
Labour’s latest housing wheeze is a plan to scrap a scheme that allows office and industrial buildings to be converted into homes without planning permission. This will apparently put an end to “slum housing and rabbit hutch flats” and Read More >
25th April 2019
The millennial generation are ever so different, apparently. As they grow up, we’re told, an intergenerational shift is underway.
Those under the age of 35 not only think differently to the rest of us, claimed Matthew d’Ancona Read More >
25th April 2019
Some managers of physical stores are getting paid for online sales too – and landlords want a slice of the action
While in Downtown Los Angeles a few weeks ago, I saw a large sign – like an oasis in the desert – for Dunkin’ Donuts Read More >
23rd April 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:
1) A summary of Fund performance
The table below shows the average March 2019, Q1 2019 and 5 year returns for the mandates in our Read More >
21st April 2019
The choice, apparently, is simple: capitalism or the planet.
In a television clip that quickly went viral last week, Guardian columnist George Monbiot said that the way to prevent climate breakdown was to “change the system”:
We have Read More >
19th April 2019
Most investors found 2018 to be a bumpy ride and I was no exception.
The market price of my portfolio declined by more than 10% during the year, which was mildly annoying. But that’s not really what I’m talking about.
When I talk about Read More >
19th April 2019
My heart goes out to the people of France. The image of the burning cross taken from the air above the enflamed cathedral of Notre Dame is shattering. Its ruination, though, is causing immediate redemption. People all over France are pledging Read More >
18th April 2019
The Centre for Social Justice recently released an in-depth survey of people across Britain that found family breakdown was one of the most significant determinants of poor life outcomes.
When someone experiences trauma in childhood, linked Read More >
18th April 2019
‘Cash is king and the cash flow statement is arguably the most important of a company’s three main financial statements. We explain the relationship between profit and cash and how cash management is vital to keep companies in business.’ Read More >
17th April 2019
Rightmove is an incredible business. In the 11 years since it listed on the stock exchange its:
Revenues have gone up by more than 370%, going from £57 million to £268 millionEarnings have gone up by more than 1100%, going from 1.4p per Read More >
16th April 2019
The Government has decided, for reasons unknown, to effectively abolish the assured shorthold tenancy, leaving the assured tenancy as the only viable form of renting.
That sounds pretty trivial, but it is not far off a return to the situation Read More >
16th April 2019
Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)
The FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REITs Index) continued its bullish rally, raising from 832.03 to 842.91 (+1.31%) as compared to my last post on Singapore REIT Read More >
15th April 2019
The kings of Siam used to gift a white elephant to courtiers to whom they took a dislike. The elephants would be incredibly costly to maintain as they required special food and housing and it was illegal for the owner to sell them or to put them Read More >
12th April 2019
In Berlin, support is growing for a referendum on mass property expropriation. In a move reminiscent of East Germany’s communist past, the referendum’s supporters aim to seize property from all private landlords who own more than 3,000 Read More >
12th April 2019
‘Timing is everything’ runs the investment cliché – actually it’s not: being right is better. In any event, spare a thought for the writer of this investment review who has been told that it must be in final form by 27 March. Of all Read More >
12th April 2019
Labour is said to be considering whether the Bank of England should be mandated to limit house price growth. According to The Guardian, this would be done not via interest rates but via mortgage regulation as overseen by the financial policy Read More >
11th April 2019
While homeowners will pay a premium for their new build properties, a lower percentage of tenants will not. But does the data agree? In this month’s Market Mover, Gav delves deeper into the inconsistencies we’ve found in the ‘new build’ Read More >
11th April 2019
How the peaceful Gulf state became one of the dominant economies in the world in under half a century
Here in the United Arab Emirates 2018 was the Year of Zayed, 12 months of commemoration to celebrate a century since the birth of the Read More >
10th April 2019
While China is up a stellar 30% since New Year’s Day 2019 and the post Bolsonaro rally in Brazil has been a license to print money in the Bovespa, the broader emerging markets have been a sucker’s bet in the past decade relative to the Read More >
10th April 2019
As the Brexit crisis continues, many have expressed astonishment that the Labour Party has not (yet) been able to build up a substantial lead in voting intention polls. Their surprise is understandable – the government’s handling of Brexit Read More >
10th April 2019
Last week, I wrote about the cost of food in the United States between 1919 and 2019. Using historical data, I showed that, on average, basic food items have become much cheaper relative to the wages of unskilled laborers. I focused on unskilled Read More >
8th April 2019
Campaigning groups like Generation Rent and Shelter like to think they are simultaneously edgy and radical; likewise some think tanks believe themselves to be lofty, worldly and above the fray of day-to-day politics.
So why, when it comes to Read More >
6th April 2019
The National Minimum Wage is 20 years old today. Despite the controversy surrounding its inception, it is now widely accepted across the political spectrum. As I noted recently, it looks as though Philip Hammond wants to increase it Read More >
5th April 2019
Not long after his celebrated thermal baths were completed, Peter Zumthor, the idiosyncratic reclusive Swiss architect, gave a rare lecture in the elegant basement lecture hall at the RIBA. I had only recently qualified and I was eager to Read More >
5th April 2019
With everything going on in Westminster at the moment, it’s easy to forget that Brexit was meant to be about taking back control. Some people dismiss that idea as mere campaign rhetoric, of course. Others see it as little more than jingoism. Read More >
4th April 2019
Source: LonRes
What does the chart show?
It’s easy to fixate on what’s happening now and block out the – even most recent - past. And this is never truer than when it comes to the housing market.
In prime central London Read More >
3rd April 2019
‘China’s decision to stop importing waste materials from Europe for recycling has brought the problem of dealing with refuse into sharp focus. Waste-to-energy technology offers the potential for not only disposing of rubbish but using it to Read More >
2nd April 2019
The United States has experienced over 40 years of diminished economic growth. While different data sources and analyses yield different estimates, they all confirm several decades of slow economic growth. Earlier, from the 1890s to 1972, Read More >
2nd April 2019
Summary:
With the number of BTR developments expected to increase by 180% in the next 6 years, is this a golden opportunity for developers? The REalyst takes a closer look, using the REalyse platform to find potential BTR Read More >
1st April 2019
Real estate share prices have been implicitly forecasting property declines that are yet to materialise – what’s going on?
The most noticeable impact of the EU referendum in June 2016 upon the UK real estate sector has been the sharp Read More >
29th March 2019
Recent declines in US government bond yields have led to a flood of articles discussing the likelihood of a US recession over the next 12-18 months. This is understandable, first given the relatively strong correlation between yield curve Read More >
27th March 2019
BAE Systems is an obvious choice for dividend investors.That's because:
(1) BAE Systems is the UK's largest defence manufacturer which should make it a relatively defensive company (governments may cut defence spending during Read More >
26th March 2019
Today is Venice’s birthday. According to legend, the city was founded exactly 1,598 years ago today. A small, independent trading state beyond the reach of any overbearing European power, it flourished for many centuries.
Young Venice not Read More >
21st March 2019
I might look very silly by the end of the month but there will not be a no deal Brexit. Neither side can afford this outcome. Sadly my crystal ball doesn’t run to how soft the Brexit will be, but what we do know is that a process of Read More >
21st March 2019
In 2012, one of the first companies I invested in as a defensive value investor was Centrica, the company behind British Gas.
It seemed like a good idea at the time. Centrica was a leading player in the defensive utilities sector, with a Read More >
21st March 2019
(How Much Is) That Doggie in the Window? - Bob Merrill (January 1953)
As the quote above reminds us, retail is all about enticing shoppers to part with their money to buy the goods on display. Historically, retailers have displayed their Read More >
20th March 2019
“There seem to be more banks in Germany than bicycles in Beijing…”
In the headlines this morning...
Unfortunately, a number of readers responded to yesterdays not-terribly-serious Morning Porridge by asking what I really think Read More >
19th March 2019
Tim Green speaks to Sandy Gumm, Chief Operating Officer of Prestbury Investments LLP
Sandy Gumm is an Australian-qualified chartered accountant. She is chief operating officer of Prestbury Investments LLP, which is investment adviser to Read More >
18th March 2019
You could be forgiven for not having noticed, but last week the Chancellor delivered his Spring Statement.
This is essentially just a response to the biannual fiscal updates which the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is mandated to Read More >
16th March 2019
Wednesday’s Spring Statement was always likely to be a sideshow compared to the Autumn Budget, even if Brexit hadn’t taken centre stage. But the Chancellor still managed to say a few interesting things, including on “tech and the Read More >
15th March 2019
While the UK’s impending exit from the European Union may have dampened demand in UK property, particularly in the City, the same is not uniformly true elsewhere, and this year is nevertheless set to be strong if European investors are Read More >
14th March 2019
Amazon’s Echo speaker and similar smart speakers have recently been added to the basket of goods the Office for National Statistics uses to calculate inflation. It’s another useful reminder of how we tend to overstate inflation and thus Read More >
14th March 2019
The FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REITs Index) continued its bullish rally, raising from 832.03 to 842.91 (+1.31%) as compared to my last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Feb Read More >
12th March 2019
The housing minister describes being stopped in the street by people wanting to thank him for Help to Buy. ‘Several people have stopped me and thanked me for it, because it gives young people access to homes that otherwise they would not Read More >
12th March 2019
Last quarter’s reports showed Leeds lagging behind the upward house price curve, while Birmingham and Manchester prices steamed ahead. In this month’s Market Mover, REalyse’s CEO and Statistical Mastermind, Gavriel Merkado, takes a closer Read More >
12th March 2019
The outsourcing firm Capita doesn’t seem to have done very well in its Army recruitment contract, according to a scathing report from MPs.
This is actually one of the advantages of outsourcing to a private sector organisation, being Read More >
11th March 2019
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If you're interested in real estate, architecture, investing, classic cars and wine, then you'll love the Property Chronicle Read More >
10th March 2019
One doesn’t expect to find the Guardian extolling the virtues of capitalism, but yesterday’s long-read on Aldi may be the exception that proves the rule.
The story of the deep discounting supermarket and its near identical rival, Lidl, is Read More >
9th March 2019
A recent study estimates that the full burden of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump fell on American consumers. As reports claim that the Department for International Trade (DIT) intends to cut 80-90 per cent of the Read More >
8th March 2019
I keep hearing it said that we should not re-regulate private renting, or if we do then we need to be very careful about it, lest landlords disinvest. This would exacerbate supply issues in places like London, it is claimed. One policy type told Read More >
7th March 2019
Shortly after 1.30pm next Tuesday afternoon, "The Roar" will signal the start of four days of compelling sport. 60,000 voices greeting the start of the Cheltenham Festival as the runners are sent on their way for the meeting's opening contest, Read More >
6th March 2019
Excerpts of this article appeared in the March 2019 edition of the Forbes Real Estate Investor.
March is one of my favorite months in the year, especially because that’s when the biggest college basketball tournament takes place, and Read More >
5th March 2019
Housebuilders Make Money
This week saw three of the biggest housebuilders in the UK deliver increases in the number of homes they built and the profits they made. Bovis sold 3,759 homes; Taylor Wimpey 15,275 homes and Persimmon 16,449 homes Read More >
5th March 2019
There are two types of invertebrate on our farm that I refer to as “the enemy”. They are the fly and the liver fluke, one an external parasite and the other an internal one, each the bane of the health of our cattle and sheep across the Read More >
4th March 2019
Purplebricks, the online estate agent, was in the headlines last week for all the wrong reasons: shares nose-dived by 40%, revenue forecasts came in short of £35m and management resigned. But could this all have been avoided with the help of Read More >
4th March 2019
I started perusing The Property Chronicle a few months ago when I came across a good piece by John Ratcliffe. This morning I knew I had to respond to Yolande Barnes' What do we mean by #RethinkRealEstate?
She's a professor of real Read More >
4th March 2019
"U.S., China Close In on Trade Deal." Sunday afternoon's Wall Street Journal article led with:
China and the U.S. are in the final stage of completing a trade deal, with Beijing offering to lower tariffs and other restrictions on Read More >
4th March 2019
The Physical Market Cycle Analysis of 5 Property Types in 54 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
The 2018 economic expansion continued at a moderate pace with a slightly higher GDP growth rate than the past five years. Employment growth Read More >
1st March 2019
As readers know, I’ve shown time and again how REITs are a great source of generous, safe, and growing income over time, and a favorite among high-yield investors – a group that includes those with low-risk tolerances such as retirees Read More >
1st March 2019
The MSCI All Country World Index is up some 250% since the financial crisis. But was there ever a cycle in which investors were more skeptical about the market’s upward momentum, where stock valuations had to climb so many “walls of Read More >
1st March 2019
1. It’s time to take responsbility
Unease about big tech’s impact on society is driving a movement towards responsibility. Fifty-one per cent of Americans think that major technology companies should be regulated more than they currently Read More >
1st March 2019
“Dydd Gwyl Dewi Hapus”
In the headlines this morning...
A moment of frostiness in the Blain household this morning after I failed to provide my very Welsh “She-Who-Is-Now-Mrs-Blain” with Daffodils for St David’s Day. Cup of tea Read More >
1st March 2019
Marcus Phayre-Mudge of BMO and Adrian Elwood of Clerkenwell Capital tells Property Chronicle that there are plenty of alternatives to back beyond shopping centres.
Investors in listed European property companies may feel at a disadvantage. A Read More >
28th February 2019
These last six months have been full of terrific opportunities for this travelling academic to feed her real estate addiction.
First up was a trip home to Madison for the Wisconsin Real Estate Alumni Association. Since I hold three Read More >
27th February 2019
A new report from the Social Market Foundation, suggesting building co-living spaces for sale to mitigate the housing crisis, has attracted the usual backlash.
Much of the opposition to tiny homes, co-living facilities and the like comes from Read More >
26th February 2019
What do we mean by #RethinkRealEstate?
If you are wondering what your life is about and want to get rather philosophical about it all, there is nothing quite like acquiring a new job title –particularly when you have to make it up yourself. Read More >
26th February 2019
Austerity, welfare, pensions – all our fiscal dilemmas could be easily solved by printing money. This is the conclusion of a fashionable strand of macroeconomics called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) — but does it stand up to scrutiny?
At Read More >
25th February 2019
Writing in a blog for the New Economics Foundation (NEF), Alfie Sterling has made the striking claim that fixing the public sector finances has “suppressed the economy by almost £100 billion”, or “around £1,500 for every Read More >
25th February 2019
A new report from the lengthily titled Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee has made for some exciting headlines this morning. Beware, Britain could be about to turn into a nation of “ghost towns” unless we take urgent action Read More >
25th February 2019
PART III: the UK Macro and Micro Factors
Following on from Part 2 of The UK Housing Market in 2019: the Deep Trends, where I analysed domestic macro factors in the forecasting the near-term future of house prices here in the UK and for 2019, Read More >
22nd February 2019
Despite giddy excitement in Westminster regarding the formation of The Independent Group, the most sobering news of the week was the announcement that Honda would be closing its Swindon factory in 2021, taking 7000 jobs with it.
The news Read More >
22nd February 2019
This past holiday season, as with many other times of the year, the difference between making or losing money online came down to one thing for many retailers: How effectively and efficiently they handle returns of merchandise.
Returns are as Read More >
22nd February 2019
“She was a Stradivarius of an Airplane!”
In the headlines this morning...
Some marvellous stuff in the papers this morning and on the screens – slight delay to the porridge this morning is because we watched the USAF RAF flypast from Read More >
21st February 2019
President Trump's schedule (EST):
11:30 AM: Daily intelligence briefing;
12:15 PM: Lunch with Acting Interior Secretary Bernhardt; and
6:15 PM: Reception for National African American History Month.
China Read More >
21st February 2019
And then there were eleven. The “Independent Group” of MPs can, for the time being, field a cricket team. They now hold more seats in the House of Commons than the Democratic Unionist Party. They are not so much a third way as the fourth Read More >
21st February 2019
Summary:
Will overseas investment into UK property continue at the same rate as recent years as we career towards the Brexit deadline? Our REalyst analyses the future of overseas investment into UK properties and weighs up the Read More >
20th February 2019
The Federal Government in D.C. is closed today because of an ice and snow storm.
"Federal Reserve Board offices in Washington, D.C. are closed due to inclement weather.
The FOMC minutes will be released as scheduled at 2:00 p.m. The daily Read More >
20th February 2019
“A February Super Snow Moon? Its warmer than a Scottish Summer out there...”
In the headlines this morning...
I note with some delight Bernie Sanders plans to stand for US President. One of my US chums sent me the story of the Read More >
20th February 2019
The German authorities have recently banned short selling in a company called Wirecard – this is the wrong decision.
It misses the point of what markets are actually about, namely finding the correct price for something. If that happens to Read More >
20th February 2019
In our last article we looked at how Ship Owners were attracting financial investments through innovating their product offering and slowly catching up with the digital age. This commentary will now focus on the softer skills required in dealing Read More >
19th February 2019
FOMC Minutes -- 2 PM Wednesday
Fed Monetary Policy Report -- 11 AM Friday
2019 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, NY:
Fed Vice Chair Clarida, 12 PM Friday, "The Federal Reserve's Review of Monetary Policy Strategies, Tools, and Read More >
19th February 2019
“Any customer can have a car painted any colour they want, so long as it is black.”
In the headlines this morning
Reasons to be cheerful….? Can’t really think of anything this morning. Just more snapshots on why we should remain Read More >
18th February 2019
“Once I built a tower, now its done, Brother, can you spare a dime?”
In the headlines this morning
Another fascinating weekend… It’s a holiday in the US, and much of UK is off for mid-term. I’m still trying to digest the Read More >
18th February 2019
PART II: the UK Macro Factors
Following on from Part 1, where I analysed global macro factors in the forecasting the near-term future of house prices here in the UK and for 2019, I will now shift my focus to the meaty questions: what Read More >
15th February 2019
Once a month we will bring you an interesting chart with a short commentary. Our aim is to illuminate the corners of financial markets.
TINA turning?
Rising returns on cash may cause investors to withdraw from riskier assets such as Read More >
15th February 2019
The equity rally is likely just the start of a volatile adjustment to a new fundamental reality.
“Investors who sit out now could miss a chunk of this year’s returns.”
Those were the last words that I wrote in one of our CIO Weekly Read More >
15th February 2019
Not as glamorous as Brooklyn, as cool as Staten Island, or as private as Manhattan… ”*
*In the headlines this morning
Bit of jolt to stock market’s yesterday – US Retail Sales crash, Trade War concerns, slowdown in China, Read More >
14th February 2019
“I was going to buy you a thousand red-roses my darling Mrs Blain.. but they were a bit expensive.. ”
In the headlines this morning: https://morningporridge.com/stuff-im-watching
There was a girl selling very expensive roses Read More >
14th February 2019
Last week, polling for CapX found broad agreement that there is a housing crisis in Britain, though people in all regions thought it was less bad in their local area, with politicians the most likely culprits in the eyes of voters.
This week Read More >
13th February 2019
Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR) reported strong H119 earnings growth on the back of its growing portfolio, contracted RPI-linked rental uplifts, and well-controlled costs. The Q219 DPS was increased by 3.2%, in line with RPI. Rental growth also Read More >
13th February 2019
PART I: The Global Macro Factors
Time and again, I am asked: What about the future? What can you tell me about what will happen tomorrow? Next week? Next month? Next year?
In this series, I will be doing just that and forecasting the Read More >
12th February 2019
When considering the investment risks that would arise from the implementation of an anti-capitalist labour manifesto, we should start by considering both the likelihood of this outcome and the form of Brexit that will provide the economic and Read More >
12th February 2019
As the political, financial and cultural centre of the United Kingdom, is London too dominant? This report explores how London's relationship with the UK has changed and sets out new thinking on how the capital can better connect with its nation Read More >
11th February 2019
The availability of German real estate has fallen, illustrated by a 5.3% year-on-year decline in 2017 residential permits. Since then, there has been little to no movement, with the German Federal Statistical Office reporting a 0.5% increase in Read More >
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Face to Face
In-depth interviews with leading figures in the real estate/investment world.
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