Serious investment thinking that doesn’t take itself too seriously.
Short post today. This is just a fun chart that (a) speaks to the difficulty of forecasting, and also probably (b) the incentives inherent to sell-side research. Earnings estimates (the coloured lines) are almost always revised downwards: Man Group The downward slope of the colored lines...
"The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street” is the affectionate nickname of the Bank of England, as respected an institution as Britain ever had. Calling something as “safe as the Bank...
Centuries are a bit like late-blooming teenagers; they don’t really develop their full character until their mid-twenties. The electric, modern age of the 20th century didn’t...
I’ve taken part in industry events recently discussing target rates, discount rates, hurdle rates and their relationship to yields—partly in the context of the RICS recommendations on use of DCF in valuations following the Pereira-Gray report.
My father always encouraged me not to join a political party, nor to reveal my voting preferences for fear of being unable to engage across the political spectrum.
Signs of slowdown, and some scepticism that AI capex will generate enough returns anytime soon A change to the zeitgeist, and it’s definitely gloomyhealthcare makes all the jobs,...
Distressed Office sales are the most common saleschecking in on vacancy and absorption ratesthe fabric of American life, forever changed (by longer distance living)not all...
As you know, I’m a techno-optimist. I particularly love AI and have huge hopes that it will dramatically improve our lives. But I am also concerned about its risks, especially:...
Housing and Taxation: The self over all others Whilst taxes levied on UK residential property are never out of season for the "water cooler conversation", the discussion is...
In today’s dispatch: banks are lending lessbanks are also generating less revenue, and NIM continues to slide (for now)are Zombie banks good?bank exposure to non-bank lending is...