The Professor
Our professorial contributors illuminate the latest academic research in real estate and economic policy
Latest Article
15th April 2021
When Marco Polo returned to Europe from his journey around Asia he brought back many things. One that attracted much attention at the time and went on to have a profound influence on European civilisation was an example of a kind of ceramic completely unknown to Europeans at the time. That was porcelain. He had no idea of how it was made and over the following centuries, as small amounts of this kind of ware made their way to Europe, all kinds of strange theories multiplied as to what porcelain... Read More >
Recent Articles:
13th April 2021
The state of New York is an economic disaster area.
New York is ranked #50 in the Economic Freedom of North America.New York is ranked #48 in the State Business Tax Climate Index.New York is ranked Read More >
8th April 2021
A senior official in the Indian government recently revealed to Reuters that the government would soon propose a law banning the trade and possession of cryptocurrencies. India has quickly become a global cryptocurrency hub, with 8 million Read More >
7th April 2021
The late Everett Dirksen, a long-serving Minority Leader of the Republicans in the US Senate, is famously quoted as saying a billion here, a billion there, and soon we’re talking real money. That was back in 1969. At the time, a billion Read More >
6th April 2021
Despite the pandemic, restrictive government policies, and the worst economic contraction in history, US household net worth rose again in the fourth quarter to a new record. Household net worth rose to $130.155tn, up 5.6% from the previous Read More >
22nd March 2021
Nicholas Kristof is elated. Of course, there lies the problem with elation found in the overly emotional. It’s not always grounded in reality.
To see why, consider what has the New York Times columnist overjoyed. It’s the $1.9tn Read More >
11th March 2021
The prevailing build-to-rent (BTR) model has been seen in various jurisdictions across the US, UK, Canada, Japan, Australia and Singapore in recent years. This unique format has been modelled as ‘multi-family real estate investment trusts Read More >
11th March 2021
During the early 20th century, ‘natural’ ice was in decline. ‘Artificial’ or ‘manufactured’ ice was taking its place. Men continued to carve ice out of ponds and lakes during the winter, for storage in great ice warehouses to meet Read More >
2nd March 2021
Private real estate partnerships tend to outperform institutional real estate investments by a significant margin for several reasons. First, they include a greater proportion of higher risk investments and value-add opportunities while Read More >
1st March 2021
For decades, those of us sceptical of our central banks’ monetary experiments have tried to punish them for their excesses – rein them in, have them follow a stated rule, or at least provide a way for us critics to opt out of their system. Read More >
25th February 2021
David Attenborough, a well-known BBC film presenter and climate activist, has a fantastic quote about growth and economists. It’s so captivating that I suspect it lies at the foundation for ridiculing every sensible environmental comment by Read More >
23rd February 2021
This integrated approach offers a handy way to tailor risk/return solutions in the current market.
Back in 2003, Susan Hudson-Wilson, Frank Fabozzi and Jacques Gordon wrote an influential academic paper entitled “Why Real Estate?”, which Read More >
19th February 2021
A physical market cycle analysis of four property typesacross 54 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 4Q2020.
GDP ended 2020 at a negative -3.5% annual growth rate, after the largest decline (2Q20) and bounce-back (3Q20) in history. Read More >
8th February 2021
Many consider Vasily Grossman’s Life and Fate to be the greatest Russian novel of the 20th century. A searing portrait of Stalinist Russia, Life and Fate on its very first page exposes the bitter truth about authoritarianism: “Everything Read More >
4th February 2021
It’s time to drop the material uncertainty clause for most property valuations – the market has largely adapted to covid now.
In late October 2020, I was presenting a paper at an international Zoom conference and suggesting that, even in Read More >
28th January 2021
The past year has seen unprecedented change as all have faced up to the challenge of the pandemic. It has created challenge and not a little confusion, but it has also provided time and space to evaluate what really matters in life and the Read More >
21st January 2021
Everywhere we look, the world looks bubbly.
Politically, we may point to the anger bubbling among people who feel like they were robbed of power ‒ or their opponents who want to wield that power for their own, not exactly goodhearted Read More >
19th January 2021
… and why other property professionals get lumped with the bad guy roles.
This article was originally published in April 2019.
“I don’t build in order to have clients, I have clients in order to build!” raves Howard Roark, the Read More >
3rd December 2020
During the last four years, the prospects for freer world trade have been in retreat. Now, with a new broom about to sweep into the White House, there is renewed hope for progress both in bilateral and multilateral trade Read More >
1st December 2020
Equity investors might need to top up funds by tens of billions in Germany and the UK, thanks to covid.
Declines in capital values and more conservative lending in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis created a major Read More >
30th November 2020
A physical market cycle analysis of four property types across 54 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 3Q2020.
The V-shaped recovery happened (-32% GDP in Q2 then +33% GDP in Q3) but only for a portion of the economy. Any business Read More >
25th November 2020
I yield to no one in my admiration for the office as a social centre, but it's no place actually to get any work done. – Katharine Whitehorn, View from a Column (1981)
The king is dead; long live the king. The dominance of centralised Read More >
12th November 2020
As I write this, we still don’t know who won the presidency. It is, however, time to declare at least one winner. After almost sixty years of fighting, it’s clear that the War on Drugs is almost over and drugs have won. As the Read More >
11th November 2020
“I’d rather be dumb and antifragile than extremely smart and fragile” – Nassim Taleb, in Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (2012), p4
Looking beyond covid-19 (see our previous article), the future performance of real estate Read More >
10th November 2020
According to NPR, Ant Group, a massive Chinese financial technology company, was suddenly halted from listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange just days before its IPO date. NPR reports: “What was supposed to be the world’s largest initial Read More >
9th November 2020
On the ghoulishly appropriate date of 31 October – Halloween – Boris Johnson announced new lockdown measures. “These measures above all will be time-limited,” the prime minister assured the people. “They will end on Wednesday 2 Read More >
28th October 2020
This article was originally published in January 2020.
As UK agriculture faces major funding changes, one important resource should not be overlooked in developing sustainable farming systems
Those who remember farming in the decades after Read More >
27th October 2020
Early in the pandemic I advised readers to zone out, take a break, and read fiction and other works of art that have stood the test of time. There’s only so much crazy we can deal with and there’s only so much mental benefits to be had from Read More >
22nd October 2020
Market transparency determines the relative usefulness of different types of data. The application, veracity and appropriateness of comparable data are not universal.
Property valuation is deceptively complex; its appearance of simplicity Read More >
20th October 2020
Last week in parliament, Matt Hancock explained to the house why, “on the substance”, the central claim of the Great Barrington Declaration was “emphatically not true”.
“Many diseases never reach herd immunity – including measles, Read More >
19th October 2020
The morning after Trump was elected, people in my university class were crying.
Fair enough, you think: you’ve heard about the emotional fragility of today’s youth, and perhaps you’ve read Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt’s Read More >
12th October 2020
Ordinary valuation methods prove inaccurate when the measures they’re based on are in such a state of flux – it’s time to turn to a different methodology.
In ordinary circumstances (anyone remember those halcyon days of steady state Read More >
8th October 2020
I visited South Africa for the first time in September of 2006, thanks to Grietjie Verhoef and a great number of hosts around the country, for nearly two-and-a-half weeks. In that time I watched some South African TV in English, and when English Read More >
7th October 2020
Industrial and logistics (I&L) REITs in the Pacific Rim played an added-value and strategic role in multi-asset portfolios, according to our new analysis published in the Journal of Property Investment & Finance.
E-commerce is Read More >
6th October 2020
Retailing is going through a structural change and asset values are tumbling as the effect of falling rents and a lack of investment appetite feeds through to the market value of the properties. The impact of the covid restrictions has been to Read More >
30th September 2020
Matthew Piepenburg and Thomas Lott, two hedge fund managers with Ivy League pedigrees, have issued a stark warning in their latest book Rigged to Fail. Published in February 2020, the book is as timely as it is easy to read. Although it missed Read More >
30th September 2020
As the real estate industry looks to learn from the fallout of covid-19, one issue which should be at the top of the list is to recognise the glaring mathematical limitations in the traditional performance measurement models. Engineering a Read More >
15th September 2020
Certainly, some advances have been made in the residential sector, where agents are interested in selling more properties to private outfits – ImmoScout24 , Rightmove and idealista are just some platforms. But Rightmove, for example, was Read More >
4th September 2020
BACKGROUND
There has been much discussion and commentary concerning the presumed, hoped for, and anticipated days when we are in post-pandemic times. Questions abound, such as: When will life be back to normal? Will the rebound from the Read More >
3rd September 2020
When we examine the major donors to worthwhile causes, especially schools of business within universities, why are some of the largest donors so often real estate professionals? This fact alone should wake up those universities who do not pay Read More >
2nd September 2020
ARTICLE ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED APRIL 2018
John Shotto Douglas, the ninth Marquess of Queensberry, has two major claims to fame. First he was the nemesis of gay author Oscar Wilde who sued him for libel after he had publicly objected to the liaison Read More >
10th August 2020
Price discovery in the private real estate market is always a challenge when there is a sudden change in the market as we have now with COVID-19. As happened during past recessions, the number of transactions grinds almost to a halt Read More >
4th August 2020
As coronavirus (covid-19) is reshaping the real estate landscape, property professionals need to rethink their approach to extreme risk events. It is now evident that mainstream risk management techniques are insufficient to deal with irregular Read More >
10th July 2020
Bemoaning the decline of the UK high street is pointless – it’s basic economics that land use changes according to need, and that means flats and cafés in place of shops
For the past ten to fifteen years, commentators and local Read More >
8th July 2020
As placemaking is rapidly changing the urban landscape, the way we view real estate value needs to adapt to meet evolving community demands,wherepeople create places where they want to actually live, play and work. Increasingly, space in Read More >
21st May 2020
The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) tracks the performance of over a half trillion dollars of commercial real estate in the US. Because the properties are marked to market every quarter for financial Read More >
7th May 2020
Proptech evangelists would have you believe that emerging digital technologies can and will be applied imminently to any real estate use, in the process resolving all of the industry’s current inefficiencies overnight. However, as the saying Read More >
10th April 2020
Around the world, landlords of all types are being asked by tenants, or even required by governments, to waive rents, grant rent holidays or write off arrears as tenants struggle to stay in business and household incomes fall or Read More >
2nd April 2020
At some time last year, a bat passed on a mutated virus to a trafficked pangolin (a scaly ant-eater) in a wet market in Wuhan, China. Now, that same virus has spread to unknown thousands of people across the globe and there is only Read More >
2nd April 2020
Introduction
I think that it is fair to say the effect of the coronavirus worldwide is something that is unprecedented in our careers. I know that there are a few survivors of the “Spanish flu” of 1918/19 who are still alive but for most Read More >
20th February 2020
Within the field of postgraduate education there has been a growing interest in providing (and undertaking) part-time courses, which are of the same academic standard and rigour as full time courses, but allow students to “earn while they Read More >
7th February 2020
Simple comparison in property valuation involves greater complexity than some may assume – and it’s getting harder.
Comparison is the lynchpin of all valuations. In property, we use the term ‘comparable’ to describe the Read More >
28th January 2020
A single page of comic art can command prices of up to $1m – this isn’t just a market for sentimental collectors
“Everything you can imagine is real,” Pablo Picasso once said. Nothing could better sum up the appeal of collecting comic Read More >
17th January 2020
WeWork, with its space-as-a-service model, began a chain reaction that will have a lasting impact on the commercial property market
The term ‘smart building’ first appeared in an Iron Man comic from 1994, according to Propmodo’s Franco Read More >
6th January 2020
EPRA’s new best practice recommendations for NAV calculations, which kick in this January, introduce three discrete NAV measures to replace the old ones. Are you ready?
It is well known that the UK listed sector (in aggregate) currently Read More >
3rd January 2020
Simple comparison in property valuation involves greater complexity than some may assume – and it’s getting harder
Comparison is the lynchpin of all valuations. In property, we use the term ‘comparable’ to describe the transaction of Read More >
19th December 2019
The demise of high street retailing in the UK has been a subject of national concern for some time – and even mainstream TV and radio has covered the issue from a variety of angles. The very public failure of big-name brands such as Read More >
28th November 2019
Since the GFC, Spain has seen a dramatic change in the commercial real estate debt market. Not only has the consolidation of banks helped the sector to deal with non-performing loans more effectively and restore confidence in the banking market, Read More >
25th November 2019
Government policies and elections affect house prices, but in what way and by how much? A new report from Birmingham City University researchers reveals why property professionals should take note when elections are in the air
The period of Read More >
1st November 2019
UK legislation enforcing minimum emissions standards for existing buildings can no longer be ignored
“A change in the weather is sufficient to recreate the world and ourselves,” or so said Marcel Proust 99 years ago. I wish he had Read More >
31st October 2019
The commercial property sector has slacked on sustainability, but smart monitoring offers cost savings which could change that
For everyone except Donald Trump – who seems to have buried his head under a rock for the past 50 years – Read More >
28th October 2019
The new CRREM tool reduces the risk of properties being ‘stranded’ by non-compliance with changing regulations
Climate change represents an enormous challenge for real estate, requiring adjustments at numerous levels. The property Read More >
11th September 2019
Since the 1950s, accessibility using some form of time/distance measure has been considered a determinant of land use in American city and transportation planning theory and practice. But, due to the functionalist orientation of education and Read More >
19th August 2019
How sporting terms enter the mainstream
In 1976, a Canberra cricketer who had moved there from Western Australia complained about the quality of the local pitches, which were not like those in his native Perth where “the ball bounced truly Read More >
8th August 2019
Architectural character on the big screen
As revealed in the last edition of The Property Chronicle, it’s pretty clear that in Hollywood movies of the past, architects have traditionally been cast as the Good Guys: creative, socially Read More >
6th August 2019
Why the industry must be an active force in driving change
“Sustainable investment is about the responsibility and potential the real estate industry holds to reach climate and environmental sustainability targets. In a rapidly urbanising Read More >
30th July 2019
But first, the industry must digitise
News broke in March 2019 of the first successful global blockchain real estate transaction. It included participants from established organisations, such as Ashurst, Baker McKenzie, Barclays, Clifford Read More >
18th July 2019
Is there anything else British universities can do to prove the worthlessness of a degree?
It appears not, as this week it was revealed that grades have been artificially inflated across the country’s academic institutions, with almost Read More >
12th June 2019
More people. More cities. More buildings. More infrastructure.
Infrastructure is turning out to be an asset class that, while appearing mostly immeuble, is fundamentally different from real estate requiring, among many things, strong and Read More >
11th June 2019
The Physical Market Cycle Analysis of 5 Property Types in 54 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
The economic expansion has been solid with 1Q GDP growth at 3.1%, which also drove continued job and wage growth so far in 2019. Trade Read More >
2nd April 2019
The United States has experienced over 40 years of diminished economic growth. While different data sources and analyses yield different estimates, they all confirm several decades of slow economic growth. Earlier, from the 1890s to 1972, Read More >
21st March 2019
(How Much Is) That Doggie in the Window? - Bob Merrill (January 1953)
As the quote above reminds us, retail is all about enticing shoppers to part with their money to buy the goods on display. Historically, retailers have displayed their Read More >
4th March 2019
I started perusing The Property Chronicle a few months ago when I came across a good piece by John Ratcliffe. This morning I knew I had to respond to Yolande Barnes' What do we mean by #RethinkRealEstate?
She's a professor of real Read More >
4th March 2019
The Physical Market Cycle Analysis of 5 Property Types in 54 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
The 2018 economic expansion continued at a moderate pace with a slightly higher GDP growth rate than the past five years. Employment growth Read More >
1st March 2019
Congratulations from us all at The Property Chronicle to our fantastic contributor Nick French, who is getting married this Sunday. We hope you have a wonderful day! Read More >
28th February 2019
These last six months have been full of terrific opportunities for this travelling academic to feed her real estate addiction.
First up was a trip home to Madison for the Wisconsin Real Estate Alumni Association. Since I hold three Read More >
26th February 2019
What do we mean by #RethinkRealEstate?
If you are wondering what your life is about and want to get rather philosophical about it all, there is nothing quite like acquiring a new job title –particularly when you have to make it up yourself. Read More >
23rd January 2019
Real Estate Physical Market Cycle Analysis - 5 Property Types - 54 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
It appears mid-term elections should not substantially change the pro-growth policies being pursued by the current administration, thus Read More >
19th December 2018
Having conducted a number of Strategic Foresight exercises for various universities over the past year, I am shocked and concerned how ill-prepared students on Built Environment programmes are, with notable exceptions, to ride the rising global Read More >
10th December 2018
Most of us probably go through periods of serious scepticism regarding the nature and practice of democratic government. Indeed, having lived and worked in Singapore for a spell during the ‘reign’ of Lee Kuan Yew, I found myself Read More >
13th November 2018
It has become almost a commonplace to suggest that the professions are at a watershed - or even under siege. That, with the new culture of accountability in society, there is a ‘crisis of trust’ in their conduct and a serious questioning of Read More >
1st November 2018
Some years ago I was given the responsibility for taking a cache of legal documents from the Wellington offices of Weatherby’s, the administrative arm of British racing, to the British Racing Museum at Newmarket. The material related to one of Read More >
19th October 2018
Victorian bankers rarely wrote mortgages. As a contemporary bankers manual explained: ‘house or shop property, even of a superior class, is not a desirable security...on the grounds of its uncertainty of sale’.(1) Until the 1980s, UK clearing Read More >
10th October 2018
At the start of a new academic year, it is worth reflecting that Higher Education is facing a future that is both more challenging than at any point in the last century but also presents more opportunities for innovative organisations than ever Read More >
8th October 2018
The inaugural officially-recognised test match between Australian and English cricket teams took place in March 1877 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), where Australia beat a professional team led by James Lillywhite by 45 runs. Reciprocal Read More >
21st September 2018
Having just delivered a panegyric on “Cities of Tomorrow” at a recent conference on Urban Sustainability, and praising the growing practice of ‘Citizen’s Juries’ across many countries in the world, I was momentarily thrown by a query Read More >
12th September 2018
The Prime Minister continues to cling to the nonsensical view that foreign students should be counted in the immigration numbers. The policy was based on data since proven to be false, the PM’s assertion that 100,000 students overstayed their Read More >
10th September 2018
"The future is not some place we are going, but one we are creating." - John Schaar, Legitimacy in the Modern State (1981)
Although the quote above isn't directly related to the topic of climate change, it fits the ongoing debate about our Read More >
10th September 2018
The decade since the Global Financial Crisis has seen sharp increases in asset prices apparently driven by low interest rates. These low interest rates have been caused by quantitative easing, and lower interest rates have caused lower discount Read More >
6th September 2018
In a new four-part series, David Shiers looks at how the design of the built environment has evolved to take account of ‘Green’ issues and considers what may lie ahead in the way we experience the buildings in which we live and work.
With Read More >
23rd August 2018
In 1895 a solitary American jockey, the African American Willie Simms, rode in British racing. His unusual riding style—virtually crouching along the horse’s neck with short stirrups, high knees, and a tight rein—was in contrast to that of Read More >
15th August 2018
By strange and satisfying serendipity the other day, my opponent in a seniors golf match against another club was someone I’d last met back in the early 1980s when we were both members of what we liked to think was an elite fraternity in the Read More >
14th August 2018
The result of the 1886 Cambridgeshire horse race shows that St Mirin was beaten a neck by Sailor Prince and that the losing horse carried a pound overweight. Jockey, Fred Archer, rider of second-placed St Mirin, blamed himself for the defeat as Read More >
1st August 2018
(Article originally published Summer 2018)
Part one: What do recent rises in interest rates mean for property prices?
US 10-year Treasury Bill rates have been at an all-time low, having fallen below 2% for the first time in 2017.
UK Read More >
20th July 2018
One of the wonderful perks of being an academic is that most of us have the summers “off”. They are not really off, as many of us work hard on our research or take students on summer tours to study real estate... but that is often in a fun Read More >
16th July 2018
Worrisomely, I have been somewhat conflicted over the past few weeks. Academically and philosophically, I am engrossed in conjuring up a Keynote Address for an international conference in the autumn proselytising “A Commons Transition” in Read More >
3rd July 2018
Some in the west might deem sumo a freak show in which obese children and even more obese adults are paraded to an admiring audience, but is it any more freakish than seven foot basketballers or 300 pound gridiron footballers who can run even Read More >
18th June 2018
Prelude
More than two millennia ago, the celebrated Roman poet Publius Vergilius Maro, more familiarly Virgil, pronounced: “The greatest wealth is health.” Arguably, such a sagacious statement really needs no elaborate explanation or Read More >
15th June 2018
An old adage had it that “no-one got into Real Estate because they were good at maths”. If it was ever true that you didn’t need good numeracy skills in the property industry, it certainly isn’t now and one of the major challenges Read More >
14th June 2018
Most times teams do their utmost to win matches but on occasions the rules and organisation of a competition can tempt them to do otherwise. Take the 1994 Shell Caribbean Soccer tournament in which teams were divided into groups of three where Read More >
11th June 2018
“Imagine ahead - plan backwards” has long been my idiosyncratic mantra for exploring the future horizons facing global real estate; in contrast, conceptually, to the more traditional conjecture regarding industry vogues and emerging business Read More >
14th May 2018
Until the 1980s the official list of Olympic gold medallists was one shy of being complete. The records did not include Australian marksman, Donald Mackintosh’s victory in shooting at the Paris Olympic Games of 1900. However, diligent research Read More >
11th May 2018
In 1977, a then 16-year old William Hague said that his generation wanted the national government to “...get out of the way, not intervene, not interfere in their lives” and hoped that future Prime Ministers would promote a truly free-market Read More >
2nd May 2018
US 10-year Treasury Bill rates have been at an all-time low, having fallen below 2% for the first time in 2017. UK government bond (10 year) yields have also been lower than they have been at any time and 10 year Treasuries in Australia are Read More >
20th April 2018
We have always been told that success in the real estate world is down to "location, location, location". Yet for students aspiring to join the profession a more important mantra is "prepare, prepare, prepare". Competition for property related Read More >
9th March 2018
"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing."
Oscar Wilde, Lady Windermere's Fan, 1892, Act III
I know that the quote above is semantically looking at the words “price” and “value” in a deeper and Read More >
28th November 2017
The stamp duty — a tax to be paid on the transfer of certain legal documents — has a long history in England. It was first introduced in 1694 to help finance the war against France. Although initially thought as a temporary solution, the tax Read More >
11th October 2017
According to Savills, 2016 and the World Bank, the global real estate market is worth $217tr, 75% of which is residential property. Annual real estate trading has averaged $683bn annually since 2007 and reached $900bn in 2015. This represents Read More >
5th June 2017
After graduating from the London School of Economics in 1994 with a degree in Government and History, I spent three years with Credit Suisse Financial Products in London and Tokyo before studying Shipping, Trade and Finance for a year at business Read More >
12th May 2017
2017 seems to mark a turning point. Proptech has been building such mass and momentum that it will change the world.
Will we soon be able to buy a house with the click of a button? My report PropTech 3.0: the future of real estate, published Read More >
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