What are the regional effects of climate change on farmland / crop yields?
As can be seen from the green (benefiting from climate change) and red (suffering from climate change) areas on this map, organisations like the World Bank are forecasting different regional impacts of climate change on farmland.
These changes may be large. One study (Climate Change Induced Transformations, D Leclère , 2014) predicts palm oil yields will fall by -24% and barley yields will increase by 17%.
Warm country agriculture is likely to be a net loser; cool regions may benefit
Research suggests farming regions closer to the Equator will see potential crop yields fall in the face of temperature rises. Meanwhile farming regions closer to the North and South Poles should see potential yields rise via temperature and CO2 fertilisation benefits.
Is climate change already impacting yields?
As can be seen in the next graph, cooler areas such as New Zealand and Canada have seen yields grow in recent years. Meanwhile wheat yields in more tropical regions have not performed as well.