As the pandemic is slowly brought under control, a changed world will emerge that offers new investment opportunities.
Few people will be sorry to see the end of 2020, and many have subdued expectations for next year. I am forecasting Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 to experience the two consecutive quarters of negative growth that mark a technical recession. However, the main cause of that recession – covid-19 – will as 2021 progresses have far more obstacles thrown in its path, as vaccines and new treatments are rolled out. Governments will be able to gradually lift the restrictions that strangled growth in 2020. Next year will see a growing recovery for the economy, and I see five interesting new opportunities emerging for property investors.
1. The snow shovel recovery
Starting from Q2 of 2021, I expect the UK to experience a snow shovel-shaped recovery. Q2 will be flat, as the business world takes stock after a difficult winter and plans for the future but is initially reluctant to recruit and invest again. Meanwhile, warmer weather and distribution of the vaccine will finally bring the pandemic down to a manageable level. This will clear the path for a more perceptible, Asia-led global economic recovery in Q3. Then in Q4 we shall see far greater momentum, as more consumers gain the confidence to live life in a manner resembling the pre-pandemic world.
2. The vultures circle