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Fortune tellers, economists, astrologers, forecasters and other fellow travellers Wanting to forecast and foretell the future is hardwired into our DNA

The Economist

The Brexit referendum in the UK taught me a great number of different things. The most important one of which is that I never quite realized just how many experts there are out there willing and able to offer an opinion, write a headline, and drop a forecast at a moment’s notice.

One of the most insidious bi-products of the recent spate of referentitis that has broken out like a contagious rash in the UK, is the almost daily publication of forecasts relating both to the economy as well as the real estate market. These forecasts seem to come at you in a fast and furious manner. They come in every flavour, colour and hue under the sun and normally point to a vision of the future that appears to pass every conceivable statistical test apart from the most important one, that of good sense and sound mind. There is no doubt that the entire forecasting industry seems to have been re-energised by all things Brexit and managed to prove, once again, that anything can be forecast so long as you make enough assumptions about the world around you and ignore all the soft stuff that defies quantification but actually makes a difference.

The Economist

About Joe Valente

Joe Valente

Joe Valente, Managing Director, is the Head of Research and Strategy for the European Real Estate Group at JP Morgan Asset Management. Joe and his team are responsible for identifying strategic investment opportunities for institutional and high net worth investors. Before joining JP Morgan, Joe was responsible for the investment strategy at Allianz Real estate. The strategy team was responsible for defining and helping to implement the global real estate investment strategy for the Group. Prior to this he was a director and Global Head of Research at DTZ. During this time he led a team of 150 analysts worldwide. He was responsible for the house view on global markets as well as advising a large number of investment clients on global real estate investment markets.

Articles by Joe Valente

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