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Political Insider

President Trump’s schedule (EST):

No public events are scheduled.

President Trump will delay his State of the Union speech until after the shutdown per this Tweet and that Tweet late last night.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will speak at 2 PM to the U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting in D.C.  Watch it live on C-SPAN3.

Two Senate shutdown end votes will very likely fall short starting at 2:30 PM today.  Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) agreed to vote first on the Republican plan as an amendment to the House-passed spending bill, H.R.268 ( CBO cost estimate), to be followed by a cloture vote on a Democratic amendment to fund the government through February 8th.  Each would require 60 votes to advance.

Politico’s Playbook reported this morning: 

WASHINGTON IS GETTING MORE SERIOUS ABOUT ENDING THE SHUTDOWN: Look around. SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI (D-CALIF.) and her Democratic leadership are cobbling together a $5-billion-plus border security offer — a big step for a party that said it wouldn’t negotiate with the government closed. Freshman Democrats seem more itchy to find a way to end this as the days go on.

THE WHITE HOUSE has put immigration policy changes on the table. SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY.) is off the sidelines. He met privately Wednesday afternoon with HOUSE MINORITY LEADER KEVIN MCCARTHY (R-CALIF.) in McCarthy’s Capitol office. REP. MARK MEADOWS (R-N.C.) was in a private chat yesterday afternoon with HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS CHAIRWOMAN NITA LOWEY (D-N.Y.) on the House floor.

… DO NOT EXPECT A RESOLUTION THIS WEEK: The House leaves by noon today. The Senate is expected to vote down both the clean stopgap bill and the president’s plan. The House has warned lawmakers that they could be called back within 24 hours to vote.

A Continuing Resolution to Fund the Government Through February 28th, H.J.Res.28, Passed the House Yesterday, 229-184The 1:44 PM vote won’t matter because the Senate won’t take it up.

The Consolidated Appropriations Act, H.R.648, Passed the House Yesterday, 234-180The 3:54 PM vote won’t matter because the Senate won’t take it up.   The $271.8 b. bill would have funded all remaining departments except for the Department of Homeland Security and The Wall.

“The Shutdown’s Economic Toll Equals the Average Hurricane.”  Check out the $26 b. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimate for a 4-week shutdown, nearly the $27 b. for an average hurricane as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.

Cancelled: “The Shutdown’s Impact on the Department of Treasury and American Taxpayers.”  Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee, originally scheduled for 10:30 AM today, has been cancelled because he refused to appear per Chair Neal’s statement.

CBO: “Baseline Budget Projections.” Yesterday’s 29-slide presentation explained how the Congressional Budget Office estimates its baseline outlay and revenue projections.  CBO will release its new projections at 10 AM next Monday.

CBO: “Federal Grants to State and Local Governments for Investment.”  Yesterday’s 13-slide Congressional Budget Office presentation detailed federal grants to state and local governments for infrastructure FY62-FY17, which totaled $302 b. in FY17, $124 b. for education and training, $114 b. for physical capital, and $64 b. for R&D.

“Proposals to keep older people in the labor force.”  This morning’s Brookings event (webcast here) featuring Martin Baily and NBER President James Poterba will reference this 21-page report by Alicia Munnell and Abigail Walters of the Boston College Center for Retirement Research.

Political Insider

About Pete Davis

Pete Davis

Pete Davis advises Wall Street money managers on Washington, DC policy developments that affect the financial markets. Visit his website here daviscapitalinvestmentideas.yolasite.com.

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