CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook will be released at 10 AM Today Here.  Congressional Budget Office Director Keith Hall will hold a press conference at 11 AM.  Watch it live on C-SPAN.  With a strong than expected second half of 2018, will CBO level adjust going forward or lower its forecast for 2019 beyond because of the shutdown and capacity constraints?  We’ll find out soon.  I expect CBO’s deficit forecast to rise.

A February 15 shutdown?  I don’t expect it.  The American public is overwhelmingly against another shutdown, and their elected leaders in Washington, with the possible exception of President Trump, are overwhelmingly against it.  There’s an obvious deal to be had: more than $5.7 b. for “border security” and status for Dreamers.  President Trump remains unpredictable, but I believe he’s looking for an out that will keep Fox News off the warpath.  If Mr. Trump uses a “national emergency” declaration to move funds from the Army Corps of Engineers or elsewhere to fund The Wall, it will be held up in litigation immediately.

“U.S. economy lost at least $6 billion to government shutdown: S&P.”  Friday’s Reuters article led with:

The U.S. economy lost at least $6 billion during the partial shutdown of the federal government due to lost productivity from furloughed workers and economic activity lost to outside business, S&P Global Ratings said on Friday.

FOMC will meet January 29-30 with 2 PM Wednesday press conference.  I will forward a transcript of Chair Powell’s press conference late Wednesday afternoon as soon as it becomes available.

“Federal Reserve Board appoints Stacey M. Tevlin as director of the Division of Research and Statistics.”  That in Friday morning’s Fed press release.

“Expecting a Big Tax Refund? Don’t Be So Sure.”  Sunday morning’s Wall Street Journal article led with:

WASHINGTON—The first tax-filing season under the 2017 tax law opens Monday, and there’s a crucial unknown for most Americans: Just how big will their refunds be?