“U.S. Futures Point to Opening Gain as Mnuchin Flies to China for Trade Talks.” This morning’s Wall Street Journal article leads with:
U.S. stock futures edged higher Monday as U.S. officials arrived in Beijing to start another round of trade negotiations with China.After trading around the flatline for much of the morning, S&P 500 futures and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.2% apiece. Changes in futures don’t necessarily reflect moves after the opening bell.The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%, while major indexes in Asia ended mixed.Investors are starting the week with a close eye on trade talks between Washington and Beijing, with U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin landing in Beijing Monday and scheduled to meet with China’s vice premier later in the week.
Shutdown talks at an impasse. Yesterday, Senators Jon Tester (D-MT) and Richard Shelby (R-AL) were interviewed on Fox News Sunday:
CHRIS WALLACE:A congressional conference committee is up against the clock looking for a compromise on border security President Trump will sign to avoid another government shutdown in just five days.Joining us now, two leading members of the panel: the Republican chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Richard Shelby, and Democratic Senator Jon Tester.Gentlemen, welcome to “FOX News Sunday”.Senator Tester, let me start with you, has the conference committee reached agreement at least on the number of reported barriers? And these reports that it’s going to be south of $2 billion, is that true?SEN. JON TESTER (D-MT), BIPARTISAN CONFERENCE COMMITTEE:We are still in negotiations, Chris, and I think that when you’re talking about border security. It includes more than just a barrier. It includes technology. It includes what we are going to do with the ports, manpower, aircraft, the works.We are not to a point where we can announce a deal, negotiations are still going on. There are good people on this committee, so I have confidence that hopefully we’ll get something done very soon.WALLACE:Yes. Senator Shelby, I hope you heard Chief of Staff Mulvaney just before you say that apparently an issue has come up and at the talks are in jeopardy. Tell me what that is.SEN. RICHARD SHELBY (R-AL), BIPARTISAN CONFERENCE COMMITTEE:I think the talks are stalled right now. I’m hoping we can get off the dime later today or in the morning because time is ticking away. But we got some problems with the Democrats dealing with ICE, that is detaining criminals that come into the U.S. and they want a cap on them, we don’t want a cap on that.We haven’t, as Jon Tester said, we haven’t reached a number on the barrier yet, but we’re working and we’re hoping we can get there. But we’ve got to get fluid again. We got to start movement.WALLACE:I’m going to get to Senator Tester and this idea that the talks are stalled. But on this question of the number, you met with President Trump on Thursday and you came out and said that you were more optimistic than you have been. If — for the sake of this argument, for the sake of this discussion, if the number is $2 billion, substantially less than the $5.7 billion, did the president give you any assurance that he’s willing to go along with that number to avoid another government shutdown?SHELBY:Well, the president — our talks with the president are confidential, but I came out of the meeting thinking we could make a deal with the Democrats if they are willing to meet us halfway. Secondly, the president basically in the conversation gave us some latitude to talk and that’s what we’re trying to do to get to yes today?WALLACE:Senator Tester, what do you — do you agree with Senator Shelby that the talks are stalled, and specifically this deal of detention. There has been talk that Democrats want fewer detention beds, which raises the question if you can detain fewer people, doesn’t that mean you have to catch and release more, which raises the possibility more of them won’t show up for their court hearings?TESTER:Chris, it’s negotiations, OK? Negotiations seldom go smooth all the way through. It’s give-and-take. It’s compromise. It’s the way government is supposed to work.We got good people in this conference committee — Chairman Shelby, John Hoeven, Blunt, Capito, you know, Durbin, I can go down the list. The bottom line is, is that we got people who aren’t bomb throwers. They are people who know how to work together and get a deal.I’m not positive we’ll end up with a deal, but with this group of people and the folks from the House, I think we are going to end up with something that deals with detention beds, with barriers, with technology, with the challenges we have on the southern border in a common sense way.Chairman Shelby is correct. Time is of the essence, we need to move forward, we need to keep our eyes on this. But I’m very hopeful, not positive, but very hopeful we can come to an agreement.WALLACE:Why would you want to limit the number of detention beds if the idea is you want to detain them rather than catch and release them and then they emerge into the country?TESTER:I can tell you — until we get a final number, I’m not sure we are doing any of that.WALLACE:But on principle, why would you want –(CROSSTALK)TESTER:We’ve got to come to a final number and it’s a negotiated process. I think what everybody wants, including the people I serve with on both sides of the aisle, they want to make sure that southern border is secure, there’s many ways to do that — whether it’s detention, whether it’s technology, whether it’s a barrier.And I think that we’ll come up — we can’t do everything all at once by the way. We have to prioritize and move forward. And I think this committee is fully capable of prioritizing expenditures and hopefully will get something the House — that the House can pass, the Senate can pass and the president will sign.WALLACE:Senator Shelby, let me bring you back into this. Obviously, time is of the essence, the government runs out of money, at least some agencies do, at midnight Friday night and because a variety of rules, and I love — one of them is that the house actually wants time to read whatever you guys come up with. The thought has been that you have to make a deal, you have to announce something by tomorrow.Do you feel that’s the deadline, and how confident are you that you can reach a deal by tomorrow?SHELBY:Chris, that is a deadline. I’m not confident were going to get there. I’m hoping we will get there.But the House has some leeway as far as they’ve got rules. That’s true. They wave rules. Sometimes that’s difficult.But I think the next 24 — I said the other day, it was 72 hours. I think the next 24 hours are crucial. We could close some deals but they’ve got to be good to secure our borders.WALLACE:Let me just pursue that for a second. You’re saying it’s got to be a good deal, obviously.What if you can’t make a deal in 24 hours? Do you give up? Do you keep going? What happens?SHELBY:I don’t think we ever give up, but the president will have some options, perhaps we will have some options but short of a deal, they’re not good options.WALLACE:Let me just pick up on that with you, Senator Shelby. I’ll bring in Senator Tester in a moment. What is your attitude at this point towards a government shutdown? Is that just completely off the table?And there’s been talk that there are a lot of Republicans, particularly in the Senate, who really don’t like the idea of declaring a national emergency despite what Mick Mulvaney said, fearing that it will set a precedent for a Democratic president.SHELBY:Well, shutting down the government should always be off the table. We would like of it to be off the table. We’ve worked hard to fund the government. We’re going to continue to work hard in these negotiations. But the specter of a shutdown is always out there.WALLACE:And what about national emergency?SHELBY:Well, I think the president has some powers under the Constitution and also under the statute. But I would rather we reach a legislative conclusion to this. That’s our job. I’m going to do everything I can to do it, but we’ve got to do it both ways. It’s got to be a double-edged sword here.WALLACE:I — you know, the interesting thing is, Senator Tester, there was quite a lot of optimism as recently as this weekend that you guys were going to have a deal, you are going to announce something. Yes, the president was going to have to eat considerably less money for a border barrier.How much trouble is this in right now?TESTER:I think Chairman Shelby put his finger on it. I mean, if we stay focused on getting a deal and we negotiate in good faith on border security, I think we’ll end up with something that can work and keep the government open and give certainty for not only the public employees, but for the safety of the country. And I think that’s the bottom line.And nobody wants a shutdown. Nobody wants the president to use some kind of emergency powers. We just need to do our job and we can do it.And look, every negotiation — almost every negotiation out there hit bumps in the roads. There are bumps on the road but as long as we stay focused in a bipartisan way, bicameral way to get this done, I’m hopeful we can get it done.Is it a done deal? No, it isn’t, and we could end up in a train wreck. It’s happened before. But I don’t think anybody has an appetite for government shutdown and I think everybody wants to make sure borders are secured.WALLACE:Do you want to give me some odds on the idea that you get — is it 50/50, better, worse that you’re going to have a deal tomorrow?TESTER:I’m a farmer. I never make the right decision when I’m selling my grain. I’m not a good poker player either.WALLACE:OK.SHELBY:I will say 50/50 we get a deal. I hope and pray we do.TESTER:So, the glass is half-full.(LAUGHTER)More in yesterday’s New York Times article, Washington Post article, and Wall Street Journalarticle.
Shutdown talks at an impasse. Yesterday, Senators Jon Tester (D-MT) and Richard Shelby (R-AL) were interviewed on Fox News Sunday:
CHRIS WALLACE:A congressional conference committee is up against the clock looking for a compromise on border security President Trump will sign to avoid another government shutdown in just five days.Joining us now, two leading members of the panel: the Republican chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Richard Shelby, and Democratic Senator Jon Tester.Gentlemen, welcome to “FOX News Sunday”.Senator Tester, let me start with you, has the conference committee reached agreement at least on the number of reported barriers? And these reports that it’s going to be south of $2 billion, is that true?SEN. JON TESTER (D-MT), BIPARTISAN CONFERENCE COMMITTEE:We are still in negotiations, Chris, and I think that when you’re talking about border security. It includes more than just a barrier. It includes technology. It includes what we are going to do with the ports, manpower, aircraft, the works.We are not to a point where we can announce a deal, negotiations are still going on. There are good people on this committee, so I have confidence that hopefully we’ll get something done very soon.WALLACE:Yes. Senator Shelby, I hope you heard Chief of Staff Mulvaney just before you say that apparently an issue has come up and at the talks are in jeopardy. Tell me what that is.SEN. RICHARD SHELBY (R-AL), BIPARTISAN CONFERENCE COMMITTEE:I think the talks are stalled right now. I’m hoping we can get off the dime later today or in the morning because time is ticking away. But we got some problems with the Democrats dealing with ICE, that is detaining criminals that come into the U.S. and they want a cap on them, we don’t want a cap on that.We haven’t, as Jon Tester said, we haven’t reached a number on the barrier yet, but we’re working and we’re hoping we can get there. But we’ve got to get fluid again. We got to start movement.WALLACE:I’m going to get to Senator Tester and this idea that the talks are stalled. But on this question of the number, you met with President Trump on Thursday and you came out and said that you were more optimistic than you have been. If — for the sake of this argument, for the sake of this discussion, if the number is $2 billion, substantially less than the $5.7 billion, did the president give you any assurance that he’s willing to go along with that number to avoid another government shutdown?SHELBY:Well, the president — our talks with the president are confidential, but I came out of the meeting thinking we could make a deal with the Democrats if they are willing to meet us halfway. Secondly, the president basically in the conversation gave us some latitude to talk and that’s what we’re trying to do to get to yes today?WALLACE:Senator Tester, what do you — do you agree with Senator Shelby that the talks are stalled, and specifically this deal of detention. There has been talk that Democrats want fewer detention beds, which raises the question if you can detain fewer people, doesn’t that mean you have to catch and release more, which raises the possibility more of them won’t show up for their court hearings?TESTER:Chris, it’s negotiations, OK? Negotiations seldom go smooth all the way through. It’s give-and-take. It’s compromise. It’s the way government is supposed to work.We got good people in this conference committee — Chairman Shelby, John Hoeven, Blunt, Capito, you know, Durbin, I can go down the list. The bottom line is, is that we got people who aren’t bomb throwers. They are people who know how to work together and get a deal.I’m not positive we’ll end up with a deal, but with this group of people and the folks from the House, I think we are going to end up with something that deals with detention beds, with barriers, with technology, with the challenges we have on the southern border in a common sense way.Chairman Shelby is correct. Time is of the essence, we need to move forward, we need to keep our eyes on this. But I’m very hopeful, not positive, but very hopeful we can come to an agreement.WALLACE:Why would you want to limit the number of detention beds if the idea is you want to detain them rather than catch and release them and then they emerge into the country?TESTER:I can tell you — until we get a final number, I’m not sure we are doing any of that.WALLACE:But on principle, why would you want –(CROSSTALK)TESTER:We’ve got to come to a final number and it’s a negotiated process. I think what everybody wants, including the people I serve with on both sides of the aisle, they want to make sure that southern border is secure, there’s many ways to do that — whether it’s detention, whether it’s technology, whether it’s a barrier.And I think that we’ll come up — we can’t do everything all at once by the way. We have to prioritize and move forward. And I think this committee is fully capable of prioritizing expenditures and hopefully will get something the House — that the House can pass, the Senate can pass and the president will sign.WALLACE:Senator Shelby, let me bring you back into this. Obviously, time is of the essence, the government runs out of money, at least some agencies do, at midnight Friday night and because a variety of rules, and I love — one of them is that the house actually wants time to read whatever you guys come up with. The thought has been that you have to make a deal, you have to announce something by tomorrow.Do you feel that’s the deadline, and how confident are you that you can reach a deal by tomorrow?SHELBY:Chris, that is a deadline. I’m not confident were going to get there. I’m hoping we will get there.But the House has some leeway as far as they’ve got rules. That’s true. They wave rules. Sometimes that’s difficult.But I think the next 24 — I said the other day, it was 72 hours. I think the next 24 hours are crucial. We could close some deals but they’ve got to be good to secure our borders.WALLACE:Let me just pursue that for a second. You’re saying it’s got to be a good deal, obviously.What if you can’t make a deal in 24 hours? Do you give up? Do you keep going? What happens?SHELBY:I don’t think we ever give up, but the president will have some options, perhaps we will have some options but short of a deal, they’re not good options.WALLACE:Let me just pick up on that with you, Senator Shelby. I’ll bring in Senator Tester in a moment. What is your attitude at this point towards a government shutdown? Is that just completely off the table?And there’s been talk that there are a lot of Republicans, particularly in the Senate, who really don’t like the idea of declaring a national emergency despite what Mick Mulvaney said, fearing that it will set a precedent for a Democratic president.SHELBY:Well, shutting down the government should always be off the table. We would like of it to be off the table. We’ve worked hard to fund the government. We’re going to continue to work hard in these negotiations. But the specter of a shutdown is always out there.WALLACE:And what about national emergency?SHELBY:Well, I think the president has some powers under the Constitution and also under the statute. But I would rather we reach a legislative conclusion to this. That’s our job. I’m going to do everything I can to do it, but we’ve got to do it both ways. It’s got to be a double-edged sword here.WALLACE:I — you know, the interesting thing is, Senator Tester, there was quite a lot of optimism as recently as this weekend that you guys were going to have a deal, you are going to announce something. Yes, the president was going to have to eat considerably less money for a border barrier.How much trouble is this in right now?TESTER:I think Chairman Shelby put his finger on it. I mean, if we stay focused on getting a deal and we negotiate in good faith on border security, I think we’ll end up with something that can work and keep the government open and give certainty for not only the public employees, but for the safety of the country. And I think that’s the bottom line.And nobody wants a shutdown. Nobody wants the president to use some kind of emergency powers. We just need to do our job and we can do it.And look, every negotiation — almost every negotiation out there hit bumps in the roads. There are bumps on the road but as long as we stay focused in a bipartisan way, bicameral way to get this done, I’m hopeful we can get it done.Is it a done deal? No, it isn’t, and we could end up in a train wreck. It’s happened before. But I don’t think anybody has an appetite for government shutdown and I think everybody wants to make sure borders are secured.WALLACE:Do you want to give me some odds on the idea that you get — is it 50/50, better, worse that you’re going to have a deal tomorrow?TESTER:I’m a farmer. I never make the right decision when I’m selling my grain. I’m not a good poker player either.WALLACE:OK.SHELBY:I will say 50/50 we get a deal. I hope and pray we do.TESTER:So, the glass is half-full.(LAUGHTER)More in yesterday’s New York Times article, Washington Post article, and Wall Street Journalarticle.
I remain optimistic that another shutdown will be avoided because Republican members of Congress desperately want to avoid one and because, in my experience, talks on tough issues always look like they will fail, until, at the last minute, they don’t.
“Fed Official Calls for Revamp in the Way Financial-Sector Threats Are Assessed.” Yesterday morning’s Wall Street Journal article led with:
WASHINGTON—Global regulators must revamp the way they assess new threats to the financial system, as the tide of postcrisis rules crests and the financial sector evolves, a top Federal Reserve official said Sunday.“We cannot be complacent and assume that we are safe from all shocks,” Fed governor Randal Quarles, the central bank’s point man on regulation, said in remarks prepared for a conference in Hong Kong.Mr. Quarles chairs the Financial Stability Board, a panel of international policy makers established in 2009 to overhaul global financial regulations. It doesn’t have the power to order around member countries, which control their own financial rules. But the FSB is important because regulators use it to establish baseline international standards and pressure peers in other countries to adopt them.Mr. Quarles said the FSB must put more of its resources into identifying new vulnerabilities now that more than a decade has passed since the financial crisis and nearly all of the board’s postcrisis reform agenda is complete.“Filing Season Statistics for Week Ending February 1, 2019.” The first week of the IRS filing season recorded sharply lower tax refunds compared to last year, $8.713 b. as compared to $12.560 b. The Tax Policy Center noted, “It is too soon to know whether the declines are the result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the 35-day partial federal government shutdown, or both, or whether the trend will continue through filing season. “
“Trump to Sign Executive Order Promoting Artificial Intelligence” Yesterday’s New York Times article led with:
President Trump is expected to sign an executive order on Monday meant to spur the development and regulation of artificial intelligence, technology that many experts believe will define the future of everything from consumer products to health care to warfare.A.I. experts across industry, academia and government have long called on the Trump administration to make the development of artificial intelligence a major priority. Last spring, worried that the United States was not keeping pace with China and other countries, Jim Mattis, then the defense secretary, sent a memo to the White House imploring the president to create a national strategy on A.I.Now, Mr. Trump is about to take that step, though this “American A.I. Initiative” may not be as bold as some had hoped.
Washington Calendar, February 11 – February 15
Fed Gov. Bowman will speak at 11:15 AM EST today on “Community Banking” to the 2019 American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers in San Diego, CA. Watch it live here.
Fed Chair Powell will speak at 12:45 PM EST tomorrow on “Economic Development in High Poverty Rural Communities”
at the Hope Enterprise Corporation Rural Policy Forum in Itta Bena, MS. Watch it live here.
President Trump’s schedule (EST):
? AM Daily intelligence briefing;
12:30 PM Lunch with Vice President Pence;
3:00 PM Signs an executive order promoting artificial intelligence research;
8:15 PM Arrives in El Paso, TX;
9:00 PM Holds a “Make America Great Again” rally; and
10:00 PM Fox News interview with Laura Ingraham.
The Senate will return at 3 PM today, and, at 5:30 PM, will hold a cloture vote on S.47, the Natural Resources Management Act.
The House will return at noon today with votes postponed until 6:30 PM on five bills from the Suspension Calendar. No votes on Tuesday, when a pro forma session is possible. Wednesday until 3 PM Friday, the House will consider H.J.Res.37, Directing the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities in the Republic of Yemen that have not been authorized by Congress, and a bill or resolution to fund the government.
Monday 11 5 PM MARK-UP, H.J.Res.37, removal of U.S. troops from Yemen, House Rules
Tuesday 12 9:30 AM “Building Partnerships to Protect America’s Elections,” House Homeland Security
9:30 AM U.S. Indo-Pacific Command/U.S. Forces Korea, Senate Armed Services
10 AM Managing Pain During the Opioid Crisis, Senate HELP
10 AM Rising Rx Prices, witnesses, House Ways and Means
10 AM Sanctions and Economic Statecraft, witnesses, House Financial Services
10 AM “Trump Administration’s Family Separation Policy,” House Judiciary
10 AM FDA Operations, Commissioner Gottlieb, House Appropriations
10 AM “Climate Change: Preparing for the Energy Transition,” House Natural Resources
10 AM “Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program,” House Appropriations
10 AM GSA Public Buildings Service, House Appropriations
10:15 AM Underfunded Public Education, House Education and Labor
11 AM “Venezuela at a Crossroads,” House Foreign Affairs
11 AM Military Service Academies, House Appropriations
11 AM “Military Installations and Family Housing Shortfalls and Challenges,” House Appropriations
3 PM HUD’s Housing Contracts Management During Shutdown, House Appropriations
Wednesday 13 10 AM T-Mobile/Sprint Merger, their CEOs, House Energy and Commerce
10 AM Shutdown Impact on Aviation, House Transportation
10 AM “How Middle Class Families are Faring in Today’s Economy,” House Ways and Means
10 AM Homeless in America, House Financial Services
10 AM “Climate Change and Public Lands,” House Natural Resources
10 AM Library of Congress Budget Request, House Appropriations
10 AM MARK-UP, S.333, S.74, S.195, S.196, D.315, and H.R.504, Senate Homeland Security
10 AM Invasive Species, Senate Environment
10:15 AM America’s Infrastructure Needs, Senate Commerce
10:15 AM “H.R.7, the ‘Paycheck Fairness Act’: Equal Pay for Equal Work,” House Education and Labor
10:30 AM Pre-Existing Conditions Protections, bills, House Energy and Commerce
10:30 AM MARK-UP, S.Res.50 on nominations procedures, Senate Rules
11 AM Small Business Priorities, House Small Business
2 PM Banking Access for Cannabis-Related Businesses, House Financial Services
2 PM Military Service Academies Sexual Assault/Violence Report, House Armed Services
2 PM VA Long Term Healthcare Challenges, House Appropriations
2 PM Military Housing Privatization Initiative, Senate Armed Services
2:30 PM SBA Oversight, Senate Small Business
Thursday 14 9:30 AM Coast Guard Shutdown Impacts, House Oversight
9:30 AM Defense Authorization/Special-Ops/Cyber Command, Senate Armed Services
10 AM Energy Industry Cybersecurity, Senate Energy
10 AM Congo Ebola Outbreak/Emerging Health Threats, Senate Appropriations
10 AM T-Mobile/Sprint Merger, CEOs, House Judiciary
10 AM Affordable Housing in Rural America, House Financial Services
10 AM VA Inspector General, House Appropriations
