“Trump Plans to End Key Trade Preferences for India and Turkey.” This morning’s Bloomberg article leads with:
President Donald Trump has announced he plans to end key trade preferences for India and Turkey, in the latest move by the U.S. to counter what it calls unfair trade practices.
Trump notified Congress on Monday in letters of his “intent to terminate” trade benefits for both countries under the generalized system of preferences. The notification starts a 60-day countdown before the president can take the action on his own authority, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office said in a statement.
Their designation under the program allows duty-free entry of about 2,000 products including auto components, industrial valves, and textile materials. The president can still walk back his notice to terminate the preference programs if the two countries satisfy the concerns of his administration.
India was the largest beneficiary of the program in 2017 with $5.7 billion in imports to the U.S. given duty-free status and Turkey the fifth largest with $1.7 billion in covered imports, according to a Congressional Research Service report issued in January.
Titanium Section 232 investigation launched by the Commerce Department. That in yesterday’s press release. More in last night’s Wall Street Journal article.
Monthly Treasury Statement to be released at 2 PM today. Look for the January statement here. It was delayed by the government shutdown. CBO will post its Monthly Budget Outlook at 2 PM Thursday here.
Debt Limit X-Date of “this fall” estimated by the Bipartisan Policy Center. That in yesterday morning’s Roll Call op-ed. Exactly when will depend upon how taxpayers react to the Tax Cut and Jobs Act and on how expensive this year’s natural disaster prove to be. Congress is eyeing a budget resolution or other legislation that would raise the debt limit and the spending caps. The hard part will be to keep unrelated legislation off of it. The battle over this could easily run until September, but leaders hope to move it this spring.
President Trump’s Schedule (EST):
1:45 PM: Signs an Executive Order, a “National Roadmap to Empower Veterans and End Veteran Suicide.”
More in this morning’s Military Times article.
President Trump’s FY20 Budget is expected next Monday. Look for a $750 b. defense budget without raising the $576.156 b. defense budget cap with a massive $174 b. in Overseas Contingency Operations, while cutting nondefense discretionary spending, currently at $629 b., to its $542.096 b. cap. There’s now way either party in either house of Congress can live with that nondefense discretionary spending cut, so we will see a lengthy battle over the caps, which could be resolved this spring, or, more likely, in September.
“Senate Joins House in Staying Away From Earmarks.” This morning’s CQ Roll Call article stated:
Senate appropriators don’t plan to revive earmarks this year, following the House’s lead set late last week, Jennifer Shutt reported. “I don’t see that happening right now. The House has just spoken,” said Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard C. Shelby, R-Ala.
Shelby referred to a letter that House Appropriations Chairwoman Nita M. Lowey, D-N.Y., sent colleagues last week announcing that the chamber wouldn’t bring back such congressionally directed spending in fiscal 2020. Earmarks have been effectively barred in both chambers since 2011.
“I think if the House would have changed their rule, we would have had to reconsider,” said Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., a senior appropriator. “But I think it’s unlikely that the Senate takes the lead there.”
There is a small caveat, though: House Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Peter A. DeFazio, D-Ore., wants to use earmarks to garner support for raising the federal gasoline tax in order to fund an infrastructure package.
I’m well aware that earmarks have a bad reputation, but I’m in favor of them for the simple reason that they lubricate the legislative process, just the way motor oil lubricates you car engine. You can’t drive very far without it. Ever since earmarks were eliminated, Congress has had much greater difficulty in passing major legislation. I was pleased to find this December 27, 2018 Brookings article supporting my view.
“Internal Revenue Code Provisions Relating To The Financing Of Public Infrastructure.” Yesterday’s 39-page Joint Committee on Taxation pamphlet is background for tomorrow morning’s House Ways and Means Committee hearing. Congress is shifting into high gear on a $500 b. to $1 tr. infrastructure bill.
FDII and GiLTI Regulations released. International tax aficionados are feasting over these 177-pages of regulations that Treasury released last night. They will be published in tomorrow’s Federal Register.
2018 Election: North Carolina 9th District Special Election set. The State Board of Elections met yesterday and decided: A primary election will take place May 14. If a primary runoff is needed, it will be Sept. 10 with the general election Nov. 5. If no runoff is needed, the general election will be Sept. 10. Cook Political rates this race a tossup. Democrat Dan McCready won’t face a primary challenge, while a crowed Republican primary field could force a runoff if no candidate captures 30% of the Republican vote. Depending upon how the election on September 10 or November 5 goes, Republicans would need an 18 or 19 seat pickup to retake the House. Note that 31 House Democrats hold seats in districts won by President Trump in 2016. Cook Political gives Democrats the edge in holding onto their majority in the 2020 election.
