…and from place to place

 Our forecasts offer an economic outlook for the UK in terms of both time, out to 2030, and space, across its 12 regions. Among factors we consider are spatial differences in employment shares by sector, housing tenures and the affordability of both private rental and home ownership. Included too is the pay competitiveness of labour between public and private sectors. Regional wages appear is in terms of the ratio between the private and public sectors. The argument here is that regions where this ratio is higher than the national average will fare better in business growth thanks to the public sector crowding out the private sector less. Weight was also given to how well represented a region is by private enterprise, and how welcoming and appealing regions appear to be towards high fee-paying students from overseas. Room is given to regional ‘gravitational pull’, the lure for workers, both those within the UK and those looking to come here from overseas. 

By collecting together the 31 separate and specific elements which are baked into the ‘Regional growth future-ometer’, we assert that over the coming years, the regions of Central and Northern England (CaNE) will very likely most impressively top UK growth league tables. In identifying CaNE as a standout this should in no way be considered a slight on economic prospects elsewhere within the UK, as the UK economy in aggregate will grow ahead of expectations.

At the core of our argument is how certain regions happen to be favoured by their core positioning. Specifically, CaNE sits comfortably such that it has a near 360 degree radial connectivity in logistical terms to other parts of the UK. CaNE is also favoured because it is well-positioned to capitalise in the years ahead on the certain reshoring of productive capacity and shortening of supply-chains; moves driven by economic and environmental motives. With the UK also sure to see inventory management within it altered from just-in-time to just-in-case – requiring greater warehousing capacity – here too CaNE sits pretty well.