Assuming the U.S. elections still happen in November 2020– how might that affect the U.S. economy and investment returns going forward?
While no one can yet predict the outcome of the November election – it may be instructive to look at what has happened over the past 40 years. Reviewing the 2-year election cycles to see what happened when
In all cases, when the GOP was in charge real GDP and Employment growth outperformed and usually at a 50% higher rate than when DEM was in control. Inflation (using CPI) was 13.8% higher when GOP had majoritycontrol, but was 79% higher when DEM had control of Executive, Senate or House. (Most believe high inflation is not a good thing).
Next the returns for private institutional real estate (represented by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries NCREIF – ODCE index) Barkley’s Bond Index, S&P 500 stocks and publicly traded real estate (represented by the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts FTCE-NAREIT index.