Real estate, alternative real assets and other diversions

Silver linings in the property market

Residential Investor

A ray of hope for the central London property market

The prime central London market has been a tough place over the last year, with a continuing decline in both flats and houses. Against the trend of the past four years, flats in 2018 declined more than houses – off 8.4% as opposed to 6.2% for houses. Since 2014 flats are off 21.7% and houses by nearly 25%.

Here at Property Vision, an independent buyer’s adviser business, we annually publish a prime central London index. Created by economists from the London School of Economics, using Property Vision’s own market database and cross- checked against LonRes, a premier data source for housing information, this index aims to be as comprehensive as possible. In this way, unlike most estate agent indexes, which are based on a periodic valuation of a basket of property, the Property Vision index is based on actual sales at the point of exchange. To deal with the issue of size, we adjust for lease length and express results as price per square foot.

Here at Property Vision, an independent buyer’s adviser business, we annually publish a prime central London index. Created by economists from the London School of Economics, using Property Vision’s own market database and cross- checked against LonRes, a premier data source for housing information, this index aims to be as comprehensive as possible. In this way, unlike most estate agent indexes, which are based on a periodic valuation of a basket of property, the Property Vision index is based on actual sales at the point of exchange. To deal with the issue of size, we adjust for lease length and express results as price per square foot.

Falling prices are only part of the picture. Falling turnover is the source of what can only be described as a recession in the wider ecosystem of the property market: decorators,

 removalscompanies, suppliers of kitchens and bathrooms and estate agents to name a few. Foxtons’share price is 20% of what it was four years ago and that of Countrywide (which own, amongst others, Hamptons and John D Wood) is priced for bare survival. Over the last year, turnover is down 20% between £5m and £10m, and 30% over £10m. Compared with 2013, the volume of transactions is down 50% and 70% over the same period. Thank you, George Osborne – and,  this year,Brexit.






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