Real estate, alternative real assets and other diversions

The Short Term and Long-Term Effects of the Coronavirus (Covid 19) on Commercial Real Estate

The Analyst

No one can accurately predict how long the Coronavirus will last or when effective vaccines can be rolled out, so all we can do is speculate, based on some logic and our past experience with SARS, which seems less serious and less deadly than this new potential pandemic.

Logic and history suggest that the most immediate effects will be 1) significant interruption of all supply chains, 2) significantly less travel, and a fear of all crowded venues, 3) likely over-reactions in the capital markets affecting stocks and our estimation of wealth, 4) possible government interventions to assist affected industries, especially in China.

How will each of these affect real estate markets? Starting with the most obvious:

The Analyst, zLead Article, zNewsletter

About Norman Miller

Dr. Miller is the Hahn Chair of Real Estate Finance at the University of San Diego (USD), and Vice-President of the Homer Hoyt Institute, a think tank of global real estate scholars and industry research directors. As Senior Vice President of Research for Collateral Analytics he helps develop real estate analytic products and tools to support financial institutions, banks andinvestors including valuation models, mortgage risk products, and using machine learning for data analytics.

Articles by Norman Miller

Subscribe to our print magazine now!