The UK Housing Market in 2019 – The Deep Trends (Part one) – The Property Chronicle
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The UK Housing Market in 2019 – The Deep Trends (Part one)

The Economist

PART I: The Global Macro Factors

Time and again, I am asked: What about the future? What can you tell me about what will happen tomorrow? Next week? Next month? Next year? 

In this series, I will be doing just that and forecasting the near-term future of housing prices here in the UK and for 2019. In the dangerous game of divining the UK housing market for the upcoming year, I will break down all the key factors that could have a significant impact and explain the trends that seem to be arising and their significance.

So, firstly, some definitions and ground rules:

House prices – This will be taken to mean the median price change of residential property, in aggregate, not weighted by value. So, if a £1m house goes down 10% and £100k house goes up 10%, the median change is 0%, not -9%. 

The UK– Meaning all of what is currently considered the United Kingdom, regardless of what happens with any EU issues around Northern Ireland and Scotland. 

2019– The timespan beginning 1 January 2019 and ending 31 December 2019. 

What do we know about the inputs that will be affecting our forecast and defining our trends?

Well, from a macro perspective, I will analyse the external influences on the UK housing market. That is to say, the major factors affecting strategy and decision-making within the market, which are beyond our control.  The specific factors I will focus on for the purposes of this series are: global economic outlook; UK economic outlook; inflation; interest rates; auto-correlation of activity; and, supply and demand. 

From a micro perspective, I will consider individual expectations of the housing market, as well as trends such as changes in fashion and personal wealth. 

The Economist

About Gavriel Merkado

Gavriel Merkado

Gavriel Merkado is Founder and CEO of REalyse, the UK's leading real estate data system. Having previously worked in quantitative strategy with several hedge funds before moving into real estate with companies like Quintain and Essential living he sought to find a way to bring the data analytics capabilities of finance to the world of property. The award winning REalyse platform is now in use by leading financial and real estate firms alike.

Articles by Gavriel Merkado

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