We would be forgiven for thinking that we are all doomed if you read all the press at the moment.  However, hidden amongst the gloom spewed out through the BBC and other blood thirsty press reports, was a chink of some hopeful, if not good, news last week. The Bank of England and the City are already cautiously noting that the first economic upswing, as we start to head out of lockdown, is more pronounced than people had anticipated. Early days of course – there is also a lot of bad news to read as many jobs are sadly lost and businesses fail. Further, we know the Government has had to invest an unprecedented amount of public money into the Treasury to shore up the country that will need to be repaid somehow. However, difficult though it might be to read, some business casualties like Laura Ashley and Debenhams had had their day and Covid-19 did not cause their demise. This vicious and unprecedented pandemic will be the cause of some ailing (and some not so ailing) firms to fail but it will also bring opportunities to other more resilient businesses and investors as, as in nature, it will be survival of the fittest – some may argue that is not an altogether bad thing.

The Cabinet Office Guidance on 7 May encouraging reasonable behaviour in contracting sparked many references to property transactions. The property world has had its fair share of casualties together with many battles to fight with tenant friendly commentaries suggesting all tenants, residential and commercial, should be let off payment obligations whilst they are out of work or not trading.

Not all Landlords are the greedy Rachmans of our day and, if we aren’t careful, this Landlord bashing can appear to be no more than class warfare fanned by the left wing press. Some landlords are bad, some are good. They reflect the rest of the world. If you are a pension fund landlord your collections could be paying a miner in Wales his pension and options to waive rent have serious consequences for others depending on that money.

If you are a charity with property rentals needed to help fund the good works, again your options to release tenants from obligations are limited. When residential tenants are furloughed from work on 80% salaries whilst outgoings are dramatically reduced, this is arguably not such a bad deal as to justify people stopping to pay rent. Certain protections against evictions were necessary short term when we were at the height of  the pandemic to stop the unscrupulous but we have to get everyone back to normal asap and that includes property.

The use of mediation to enable safe conversations early with business partners and property owners/co-investors to reach pragmatic compromises and avoid disputes seems an obvious path to take when Covid issues arise.  The use of a mediator and their dispute resolution techniques, even at a pre-dispute stage, allows commercial factors to feature in solutions –  not just the legal rights and wrongs. Such early, safe, conversations can avoid a dispute altogether, something the courts are keen to promote at the moment. It’s a cheap and quick process and organisations such as IPOS Mediation (formerly In Place of Strife) can set them up within days.  It’s also a product with an 85% rate of success so, on any commercial analysis, it’s worth trying.

“Save the high street” is a common call locally. Ironically, the high streets in many towns have rallied like never before, providing essentials when a queue at the supermarket is either impossible or unwanted, reminding their neighbourhoods why a local butcher, greengrocer, baker or cheesemaker is needed and providing far tastier produce than your average supermarket. Lockdown, for some of these businesses, could be their saviour as people decide not to go back to their old ways. Business rates need to be reviewed for sure, but the local high street is hopefully here to stay and this time of lockdown has been a timely reminder to us all of their benefits.

On property sales, anecdotal evidence read recently from one SW London estate agent, tells us that the first week back to viewings was like the week after Christmas. People have had enough time at home to discuss and decide to upsize, downsize, break up even, or change their location to bring about an upsurge in enquiries and surveys.

Economics may be tough to predict at present but if you are mid-transaction for a deal that seemed a good price in February but which might seem a bit daunting now, how will you feel in 6-12months’ time? Who knows how much the bounce back will affect the market or how the Government will seek to recover all of the £billions spent through taxes  – perhaps interest rates may have to rise so we may have less to invest elsewhere? However, there will have to be stimuli to encourage us back to trading again in all markets. The car industry, retail and aviation are already talking about this. Stamp duty freezes, business rate cuts and tax incentives for downsizers are obvious first ports of call for the Government to stimulate the property market.

The truth is that a crystal ball is needed at present to verify any forecasts for the next year or so but we were getting into good economic shape as a country before this happened and so are better placed than most in Europe to deal with the huge repayments needed as a country. As always, some investors will do well looking for the bargains that will inevitably be out there from desperate sellers and buyers who have to move or sell. That may sound harsh but it is business the world over and just because we have suffered an awful pandemic, doesn’t change that reality. People, hopefully, will have had time to reflect on past behaviours and, having seen many close to us affected by this time of lockdown, will act more reasonably and treat others fairly. Nonetheless the business world is, and will always be, a tough place. There will be individual winners and losers but it won’t all be downside and as we saw in the 2008 financial crisis, some businesses will fail but we won’t be able to blame it all on the pandemic, some of it will be pure bad luck or natural wastage.

A final anecdote told to me last week was of a property investor who lost out on a project in early March as lockdown threatened and sellers got cold feet. He was devastated as it had been his long held dream to build a property portfolio for his retirement and this was the first step towards that dream. Three months on, and with time to think and reflect with his wife and extended family, that investment is now going to be a place abroad and a different pace of life. He says that, without a forced step off the business ladder, he might be knee deep by now in surveyors, lawyers and architects’ papers. So not all downside!