President Trump’s schedule (EDT):
10:50 AM: Meets with Irish Prime Minister Varadkar
12:00 PM: Attends the Friends of Ireland Luncheon at The Capitol; and
6:00 PM: Participates in the Shamrock Bowl presentation by Irish Prime Minister Varadkar.
The House will recess this afternoon until March 25th. The Senate will go out tomorrow to return on March 25th also.
“China and U.S. to Push Back Trump-Xi Meeting to at Least April.” This just out Bloomberg article leads with:
A meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement to end their trade war won’t occur this month and is more likely to happen in April at the earliest, three people familiar with the matter said.Despite claims of progress in talks by both sides, a hoped-for summit at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort will now take place at the end of April if it happens at all, according to one of the people. China is pressing for a formal state visit rather than a lower-key appearance just to sign a trade deal, the person said.Xi’s staff have scrapped planning for a potential flight to the U.S. following a trip to Europe later this month, a separate person said. The people asked not to be named as the details are private.Fear of Trump Walking Out on Xi Haunts China as Talks Near EndU.S. stock index futures dropped on the news. China’s offshore yuan extended its drop to as much as 0.51 percent, the most since Feb. 1.U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer this week pointed to “major issues” still unresolved in the talks, with few signs of a breakthrough on the most difficult subjects including treatment of intellectual property. Chinese officials have also prickled at the appearance of the deal being one-sided, and are wary of the risk of Trump walking away even if Xi were to travel to the U.S.White House communications staff didn’t immediately respond to an early morning request for comment. The State Council in Beijing also didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
“Trump in ‘No Rush’ to Make Trade Deal With China.” Last night’s Wall Street Journal article led with:
WASHINGTON—President Trump warned Beijing Wednesday that he would not sign off on a trade deal that didn’t meet U.S. demands, in a sharp departure from his recent optimism.Following a White House meeting with his advisers, Mr. Trump told reporters that he was “in no rush” to make a trade deal, which he contrasted with what he said was Beijing’s impatience.“China very much wants to make a deal,” he said. Mr. Trump added that Chinese President Xi Jinping understands that he would walk away from a weak offer, as he had done last month in the Hanoi summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.Christopher Adams, formerly a Trump Treasury official and U.S. trade negotiator stationed in Beijing, said the president’s comments may reflect a negotiating tactic.“Trump can use this for leverage and could also be mindful he would be criticized for a weak deal,” he said.The Chinese Embassy in Washington didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.Prospects for a trade deal have been on a roller coaster of late. U.S. officials are trying to figure out whether special envoy Liu He, China’s vice premier and a close Xi ally, can press the vast Chinese bureaucracy to make the concessions sought by Washington.Those include firmer protection of intellectual property, a sharp reduction in subsidies and massive purchases of agricultural goods, services, natural gas and other products.
USMCA in the hands of Speaker Pelosi. This morning’s Politico Playbook states:
WHITE HOUSE TO PELOSI: MOVE NEW NAFTA WHENEVER YOU’D LIKE! … TRUMP is doing something you might not expect when it comes to moving the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade deal: He’s completely deferring to SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI’S schedule for passing it. The White House — which is requesting to speak on background on trade talks — says it is “deferential to Speaker Pelosi’s timetable.” It’s quite the move for TRUMP, who is banking on the USMCA as his chief legislative achievement this Congress.THE WHITE HOUSE’S DECISION TO put all of its cards in Pelosi’s hand is risky, of course, but it’s a recognition that she runs the place. But TRUMP bowing to Pelosi, and giving her the proverbial keys to rewriting NAFTA — something he’s talked about since the campaign days — is notable, especially as 2020 approaches. The White House believes that even though many of her members hate Trump, this deal is a win for them back home, which will force Pelosi to move. OF COURSE, Pelosi has far more experience in legislating than Trump does, so we’ll see how this all goes.THE WHITE HOUSE was heartened by Pelosi inviting ROBERT LIGHTHIZER to the Dem Caucus on Wednesday, but don’t read too much into that, senior Dem sources tell us. It wasn’t at all an endorsement of the USMCA, or anything of that nature. It was Pelosi allowing Lighthizer to make his arguments and allowing members to make a judgment either way. The meeting went well enough, but significant issues remain outstanding.– SOME INTEL: When thinking about the USMCA, and its prospects for success, you need to focus your thinking on one place: the House. The Senate needs to wait to see what the House can or cannot do with TRUMP’S trade deal.“Spectrum Auction Threatens Lives, Members Warn.” Last night’s CQ Roll Call article stated in its entirety:
Senior House members, citing a potential threat to the safety of millions of people, urgently asked a federal agency Wednesday to delay an auction of radio frequency spectrum that is slated to occur Thursday. If that spectrum is used for 5G wireless communications, as planned, it could interfere with government satellites’ ability to collect data in a nearby band — information on which accurate weather forecasts hinge, three House Appropriations subcommittee chairmen said in a letter obtained by CQ.Such information is “critical for national security as well as the protection of American lives and property,” they wrote to Ajit Pai, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, which plans to hold the auction. “Without this data, the Nation’s forecasting capacity would be reduced to the accuracy of the forecasts produced in the 1970s,” the Democratic appropriators wrote. “For example, the forecast for Superstorm Sandy would have predicted landfall in Maine 24 hours later than actual landfall occurred in New Jersey, roughly 300 miles away. This would have further imperiled millions of Americans.”The letter was written by Peter J. Visclosky of Indiana, chairman of the Subcommittee on Defense; Mike Quigley of Illinois, chairman of the Financial Services panel; and Jose E. Serrano of New York, chairman of the Commerce, Justice and Science subcommittee. The appropriators called for delaying the auction and requested information about the rationale for the FCC’s decision. They also sought assurances about any protections against interference with the collection of weather data. What’s more, they requested internal federal communications about the matter. Several departments and agencies reportedly have criticized the proposed auction.Government satellites need to be able to record data about ocean water vapor to accurately predict weather patterns, the appropriators wrote. Interference from communications in the part of the spectrum the FCC plans to auction off — between 24.25 and 25.25 gigahertz — could compromise those data collection efforts, they said. The military, too, relies on accurate weather information derived by those satellites to effectively employ forces. Also on Wednesday, leaders of the House Science Committee sent a similar letter expressing concerns to Pai, according to news reports. Texas Democrat Eddie Bernice Johnson, the committee chairwoman, and Frank D. Lucas, R-Okla., its ranking member, voiced concern that the FCC appears to be dismissing the views and concerns of NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Pentagon, National Academy of Sciences and the international community. News reports have indicated that officials at those federal organizations have expressed worries about the planned auction.Notwithstanding the widespread concerns, the FCC plans to move forward with Thursday’s auction, said Brian Hart, the commission’s spokesman, in a statement Wednesday evening. He called the auction an important step toward securing American leadership in 5G. He said the FCC coordinated its decision on the matter with other departments and agencies. And he said the FCC will protect other spectrum bands. “It is therefore perplexing to be asked to postpone this auction the day before it is going to start,” Hart said. “While our nation’s international competitors would undoubtedly be pleased if we delayed this auction of greenfield spectrum at the last minute, the FCC will move forward as planned so that our nation can win the race to 5G and the American people can quickly enjoy the benefits of the next generation of wireless connectivity.”
“Overview of Deduction for Qualified Business.” Yesterday’s 32-slide Joint Committee on Taxation presentation explains the 20% small business deduction created by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
“The Trump administration’s statistical malpractice on the Census.” Yesterday afternoon’s Washington Post op-ed by American Statistical Association Executive Director Ronald L. Wasserstein concluded:
Every decade, we count our citizens. That count is increasingly complex, as our population grows, moves and changes. But the system for counting cannot be subject to an administration’s whims. Counting everyone is a science. Failing to pretest, and deliberately risking data quality, is statistical malpractice.Ever since Census Director John H. Thompson quit on June 30, 2017 in protest over lack of funding for the 2020 Census, I’ve repeatedly warned that data quality will be hurt with far reaching consequences.
2020 Election: “Arizona’s 2020 Senate Race Already Looks Tough For Everyone.” Yesterday afternoon’s FiveThirtyEightarticle led with:
Signs point to the Arizona Senate special election being a key race in determining who controls the Senate in 2020. On the Republican side of the race to fill the late Sen. John McCain’s old seat, Sen. Martha McSally — who was appointed to McCain’s seat after losing her 2018 bid for the state’s other seat — is expected to run to finish off the last two years of McCain’s term. But she could face a formidable challenger in retired astronaut and Navy veteran Mark Kelly, who announced he’ll run for the seat as a Democrat last month. But Kelly could face his own adversary in the primary, so here’s a detailed look at the possible Democratic primary battle that lies ahead and an early look at the all-important general election.
2020 Election: “Democratic Big Money Flows Into Four Key States.” This morning’s Wall Street Journal article leads with:
WASHINGTON—As Democratic presidential candidates spend much of their time and money in the early primary states needed to win the nomination, the party’s biggest donors are training their sights on a different set of states, which they view as key to winning the White House.Two of the Democrats’ best-funded outside groups—both of which are backed in part by New York billionaire George Soros—are planning at least a $130 million campaign to attack President Trump and build support for Democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, where Mr. Trump narrowly prevailed over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. A third group, an $80 million voter-engagement effort, is at work in these and three other battleground states.Together, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida make up 75 of the 538 electoral votes. Mr. Trump won 304 votes to Mrs. Clinton’s 227, even though she won a majority of the popular vote. Democrats could prevail in 2020 by rebuilding most of what they had considered their “Blue Wall” in the middle of the country. If the other states vote as they did in 2016, and Democrats flip Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, they could lose Florida and still have enough electoral votes to win. Democratic governors flipped statehouses in elections last year in Wisconsin and Michigan, and held Pennsylvania.Mr. Trump’s re-election effort, which had raised more than $100 million by the end of last year, also plans to spend heavily in the four key states, as well as other battlegrounds, such as Ohio, campaign officials said.
