What Pepys teaches us about bounce back – The Property Chronicle
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What Pepys teaches us about bounce back

The Economist

After digesting the initial shock of the coronavirus and its economic disruption, analysts are starting to assess the longer term impact of the pandemic. Not surprisingly, there has been much speculation about how the world could emerge, often on the basis of changes in behaviour as a result of the pandemic. But such shifts are rare and experience suggests that once the virus is under control, people will return to offices, shops and bars surprisingly quickly. 

One of the problems with analysing the coronavirus outbreak is a lack of precedents. There have been many disease outbreaks over the recent past, though nothing as severe since the Spanish Flu a century ago. Our UK macroeconomists recently looked even further back to the Great Plague in the 17th century, which although lacking in meaningful economic data, does have important documentary evidence from the Diary of Samuel Pepys. 

The 1665 plague outbreak was proportionately far more deadly than its 2020 counterpart, but the enforced changes were similar. Pepys was clearly affected – moving from the City to the suburbs at Greenwich; staying away from his office; noting the falloff in shoppers at the Royal Exchange; and even avoiding the pub (albeit reluctantly and not altogether). But it is also striking how quickly his behaviour reverted once conditions eased.

The Economist

About Andrew Burrell

Andrew Burrell is Capital Economics’ Chief Property Economist and runs their highly-regarded UK, European and (newly-launched) US Commercial Property Forecasting Services.

Articles by Andrew Burrell

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