Serious investment thinking that doesn’t take itself too seriously.
Leading economists share their thoughts on money, rates and prices
Bond markets are on fire again. Looking back at the 2015-2021 period when I traded bond markets at a large bank, it was quite boring. Rates were mostly stuck around 0% at the front-end, and to make money you had to find small dislocations and monetize them with leverage hoping volatility would...
Rents have gone up, and they keep going up. This is a boon for the growing BTR/Multi-Family sector in the UK. However, the question is, how far can this really go? Eventually rents must hit a limit where further increases are just not possible.
Inflation is back! Or so the commentariat would have you believe. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 0.6 percent in August, significantly higher than the previous six monthly...
The Housing Act of ‘80 isn’t something many are likely to be overly familiar with. Yet, throughout the ‘80s, it "acted" to polarise public opinion like few other policies; of...
While the overall picture is clearly disinflationary, notably in Asia ex-Japan and US, core inflation is stickier in Europe and Japan. It is a concern that energy prices may have bottomed out and annual comparisons could turn unfavourable later in the year. Labour markets remain very tight and there is little sign of wage deceleration.
After more than two years of high inflation, the Federal Reserve finally has inflation back on target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) has grown at a...
The US economy was pushed to extremes during the pandemic recession and subsequent recovery. The unemployment rate peaked at 14.7 percent, the highest in the post-World War II...
If being entirely honest, we’d accept our wish-lists invariably include items that, without some huge leap of wealth, opportunity, or technology, will always remain beyond us....
When Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting mini-budget triggered a UK debt crisis in autumn 2022, the pound plummeted to almost parity with the US dollar. In 2023...
During the pandemic, a frequently re-iterated claim was that the contraction of the economy was not dramatically less severe in areas that adopted milder policies but reported...