Serious investment thinking that doesn’t take itself too seriously.
The capital allocators examine trends in the sector
When the topic of an afternoon drinks in Mayfair after a rather splendid Christmas buffet with an investment bank was (the failure of) the audit of real estate companies, you know there is a big problem.
The general view at the start of 2025 was that whereas the US real estate market was poised for another year of steady growth, China was in the midst of a multiyear depression...
In previous market meltdowns, and as, once again, global systems, which have delivered prosperity, threaten to unravel, a humorous question asked on London trading floors was...
In a recent LinkedIn discussion, I quoted the classic Howard Marks line: “There’s no asset so good that it can’t be overpriced and become a bad investment, and there are very few...
It took Tariff Man and the high priests of MAGA exactly two months to achieve his macroeconomic trinity: A collapse in the price of money, the price of crude oil and the US...
“Phil, I’m a melting ice cube.” I was having lunch with a friend who holds a senior position at a large, dull asset manager. “Nothing works anymore. Nothing. Not on the portfolio...
A real estate developer who builds customized medical offices and life science labs for the world's most powerful Big Pharma/biotech start-ups at a time when AI will transform...
It’s 2020 and YYY’s value-add fund is in acquisition mode. The target return is set at 13%, and the manager presents a deal; a three-year business plan with 60% leverage and a...
I wrote a column on Vornado (VNO) as a buy at 18 in Sep'22 as it was slammed by the pandemic, its debt load and the Fed's draconian rate hikes. So VNO's price ascribed a $450 a...
Writing in the aftermath of one of the most contested election in modern US history most of the attention has been spent trying to predict the effects of Donald Trump’s...