The Fund Manager
The capital allocators examine trends in the sector
Latest Article
26th February 2024
Thank goodness sense has prevailed and the Government has withdrawn its ridiculous attempt to take the non-executives overseeing Carillion to court for alleged failures. Carillion failed ignominiously and it was no-one’s finest hour, so it was right that serious questions were asked about how that could happen, but it is a travesty that non-executives should find themselves in the dock if they have done their jobs properly.
It is now late 2023. The collapse occurred in 2018 and the judgements... Read More >
Recent Articles:
19th February 2024
I read with interest the recent article suggesting that paying “marriage value” to freeholders was unfair to leaseholders when enfranchising their flats.
It is a ridiculous and self-serving argument. The author’s thesis ignores the Read More >
22nd January 2024
The new year is a time for both reflection and anticipation. It seems to me it is one of the most important of years to do both thoroughly.
2023 is described by many of my friends and business associates as one of the hardest of their lives. Read More >
15th January 2024
There are a number of reasons for the current litany of gloom about China, but the actual state of the economy is way down the list. This is primarily because narrative and emotion dominate facts in the short- and medium-term. The narrative on Read More >
12th December 2023
Well, what a difference a year makes! Certainly when it comes to RICS Redbook valuations!
Valuations are down almost across the board as valuers have adjusted to the new normal of higher interest rates, lower availability of debt, and a Read More >
4th December 2023
Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the juiciest Big Tech short of them all? OMG Apple (AAPL)!
Let me dissect the case before I am roasted alive for investment heresy: AAPL trades at an even more expensive valuation multiple than Nvidia at 30X Read More >
13th November 2023
As the gods of war exact their grotesque ransom of human blood sacrifices in the Middle East, my mind resurrects the lyrics of a Vietnam era anti war John Lennon song from my boyhood. “All we are saying is, give peace a chance”. Something Read More >
30th October 2023
My bank – a global behemoth with Asian origins – refused to honour my transaction. This was despite multiple attempts, and an agent on the telephone telling me everything was okay at their end.
The six-hour round trip to view, test drive, Read More >
16th October 2023
Lord Rothschild's advice to "buy when there is blood on the street" is perfectly apt in the bombed-out carnage of US office REITs, where stocks have fallen on a quantum scale more than the value of the underlying brick and mortar. Vacancy rates Read More >
22nd September 2023
The property media grows in reach and influence as time ticks by. Headlines would have you believe that crashes are coming but at the same time housing is more and more unaffordable. In reality with recent wage inflation at 8.2% and CPI at least Read More >
18th September 2023
Any organisation, be it commercial or not-for-profit, needs to have a property strategy - a formal document that sets out how that entity considers its operational and, as applicable, its investment/freehold real estate.
Formulating and then Read More >
18th September 2023
Blackstone (BX) was founded with $500,000 in 1985 by two Lehman partners after a civil war at the I-bank forced its sale to American Express. BX had a meteoric rise from a small LBO boutique in Manhattan to the world's first true alternative Read More >
11th September 2023
Originally published July 2023.
Another instalment in a series of articles detailing how to design a secure, income-producing portfolio.
It was in the most unlikely of locales that I first learned how to win with hard assets. The year was Read More >
11th September 2023
Originally published July 2023.
Some listed Propcos are now a "buy" and here's why...
It is ironic that the thing the listed property sector seems to need more than anything else right now is a jolly good recession, isn't it?
There are Read More >
11th September 2023
Originally published July 2023.
The professional classes are currently, and rightly, obsessing about the impact that AI will have on the service sector as ChatGPT gets exponentially smarter. The current iteration of ChatGPT - the most popular Read More >
11th September 2023
In exactly twelve months, the Paris Olympics and Paralympics will be finishing. Between now and 8 September 2024, France will enjoy an exceptional sporting year. For starters, the 2023 Rugby World Cup (RWC) began last Friday, a taster of Read More >
11th September 2023
Three generations of Gulf Arabs have been enraptured with German luxury auto brands like Mercedes, BMW, Porsche and Audi.
But please, please, do not fall in love with German homes or CRE as the Fatherland faces the mother/mutti of all Read More >
14th August 2023
Every private banker and real estate broker I meet assures me that a soft landing is certain and Dubai property's meteoric ascent will continue, as if we did not live through two 60% drawdowns in 2009 and 2014.
My macro crystal ball told me Read More >
14th August 2023
There are many reasons why one could try to argue that a decent recession is on the way in the US; the economic engine room of the world.
I, though, like many others, have been surprised at the resilience of the US consumer and the relative Read More >
31st July 2023
It’s all a matter of judgement…
It was predictable for those of us with a few grey hairs that the woke agenda would eventually be checked by a good old dose of common sense, but I will admit that it has taken longer than I had expected Read More >
31st July 2023
2022/23 convinced me that fairytales only happen when I trade emerging markets FX, other than the Lizzie/Rishi's sterling bungee jump last September. But then Britain is now an EM for the first time since the Yorkist Edward IV defaulted on his Read More >
29th July 2023
Originally published May 2023.
Emergence of new currency blocs will change everything
There is a growing feeling that the economies of the west are going through some form of Paradigm shift, but that it isn’t going to be the one Read More >
29th July 2023
Originally published June 2023.
When the shōgun of value investing in Japan says "jump," my only possible response is "Hai, sensei! How high?” So, it is no coincidence that when the oracle of Omaha, Buffett-sama flagged Japanese trading Read More >
29th July 2023
Originally published June 2023.
Is anyone else uncomfortable with the recent legal judgement that says the Ministry of Defence (MOD) can enfranchise 8 “test properties” from the portfolio that it “sold” to Annington over 25 years Read More >
24th July 2023
Whopping pork pies.
If my Cypriot dad wanted to identify someone as “loose with the truth,” he would call him a Pattihari - Pattiha being the word for watermelon in the Greek-Cypriot dialect. The far from flattering moniker would Read More >
24th July 2023
My immediate response to the news that Lazard, the boutique investment bank, is to cut 10% of its staff amid a “dealmaking chill,” is that they should cut 10% off the fees they charge to their clients instead. Actually, they should cut a lot Read More >
18th July 2023
A friend of mine was bemoaning his recent travel experience in Berlin, apparently one of his favourite European Cities. He had not been for several years and was drawn to a conference in the City. He knew the old Teigel Airport well, and Read More >
17th July 2023
The medieval knights of Europe wreaked havoc on the Levant’s kingdom of heaven in their quest for the holy grail. The leveraged gunslingers of Wall Street wreak havoc in currencies and countries at the speed of light in their quest for Read More >
7th July 2023
Lehman Brothers was a legendary Wall Street partnership before a civil war over bonuses between its bankers and traders forced its sale to American Express in 1984 and led to its fatal failure a generation later in 2008. Morgan Stanley's merger Read More >
3rd July 2023
The average member of the RICS – the institution that regulates standards, values, and protocols across the profession – must be holding their heads in their hands right now. Has the leadership just shot itself in the foot again, or is it Read More >
3rd July 2023
In recent years the stock of care home beds has barely increased in the UK. Whilst there has been new supply created from new developments, and the very occasional repurposing of former other-use facilities, these have only just about kept Read More >
23rd June 2023
After years of asset price growth underpinned by ultraloose monetary policy, the party for commercial property seems to be over. A confluence of adversity is hitting the sector.
First came lockdowns with the locking up of customers that would Read More >
9th May 2023
"The Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill" is making its way through the legislative process and is now in the House of Lords. As one would hope from one’s government, there is a lot of good stuff in there.
There is, however, hidden in its Read More >
19th April 2023
Another instalment in a series of articles detailing how to design a secure, income-producing portfolio
Consider a hypothetical baby boomer named Chuck Price, an optometrist who turned 65 in 2020. Chuck has a spacious home in Connecticut and Read More >
17th April 2023
Chaotic systems can be described in many ways but the one I remember from my youth was dubbed ‘the butterfly effect,’ Loosely put, it describes the phenomenon that the flapping of a butterfly’s wings on one side of the world can Read More >
6th April 2023
Greater Tokyo, with 37.2 million people, is the world’s most populous urban area. After years of experiencing Japan only through the lens of Marunouchi, the ultra-modern city centre (https://www.propertychronicle.com/a-letter-from-tokyo/) my Read More >
21st March 2023
It’s not just salads going off during these unprecedented times
We are fairly certain that when writing The Walrus and the Carpenter, Lewis Carrol never imagined a time that we would talk about “lettuces and queens”. However, such is Read More >
21st March 2023
The big chill of recession and a banking panic now haunts black gold, exactly as it did in the last six months of 2008 when Brent crude plunged from $148 a barrel in July to barely $40 in December. Brent crude was $85 two weeks ago and plunged Read More >
14th March 2023
Another instalment in a series of articles detailing how to design a secure, income-producing portfolio
In my previous article, I mentioned the reality that investment advisors, especially those affiliated with a large financial institution, Read More >
14th March 2023
How do you know when you’ve gone far enough? That must be the question starting to dawn on the minds of central bankers in their current rate hike cycle. But having drifted so far from the normal rules based policy of monetary loosening during Read More >
8th March 2023
‘Wilful blindness’ describes the phenomenon of human beings not seeing what they don’t want to see. Not looking too hard might be another way of putting it. You and I can think of several examples if we try.
It’s that time Read More >
28th February 2023
The data and price action last week reinforce my conviction that Wall Street risk assets are now in a classic Catch-22, heads I win/tails you lose scenario. The strong economic growth data we saw in February and spike in inflation metrics Read More >
23rd February 2023
The latest IPD Monthly Index shows UK commercial property capital values declined by 14.2% in the calendar year 2022. Income was something of a saviour of total return though. This was not a great result for the investors, but it is Read More >
16th February 2023
Time to buy some discounts to NAV, Blackstone cede 11% and UK planning paralysis
What on earth is happening to our planning system? Is it absent without leave? I know it’s a bit of an overstatement to say that everywhere I go someone Read More >
9th February 2023
You can't have a soft landing and a Fed pivot.
Expected Fed funds rates by December 2023
Source: Refinitiv, Federal Reserve.
After a dismal 2022, markets are off to a flying start this year. Chinese and European equities are leading Read More >
8th February 2023
Below is a graph showing the total number of residential units by estimated completion date and stage of development across London. It is, of course, a ‘best guess’, particularly when you consider that some developments are still planning Read More >
2nd February 2023
An overview of the book by its co-author Edward Trevillion, published by Palgrave Macmillan.
The inspiration for this book came from updating Will Fraser’s text, ‘Principles of Property Investment and Pricing’, the last edition of which Read More >
31st January 2023
The significant broadening of the institutional real estate investment universe is a welcome feature of recent years. Societal change, e-retailing and the pandemic, among other factors, has rightly questioned the merit of a strict focus on the Read More >
23rd January 2023
How China’s reopening may light fires across the global economy.
At the beginning of 2023, if we have certainty about anything, it’s how uncertain the path is for the global economy – unlike in 2021 or 2022, when the destination Read More >
19th January 2023
The CIO of Odey Asset Management, shares his thoughts on recent events inthe UK economy.
There was a time when markets were in the ascendancy, when they ruled, rather than were ruled. One of the sadnesses for those of us who have been around Read More >
17th January 2023
I wrote a post on global equities and discussed Bob Iger's return to Walt Disney earlier this week. Coincidentally, I had lunch on Wednesday with an old friend who happens to be the savviest US equities investor I know in Dubai and we spent the Read More >
11th January 2023
For most companies, recessions cause a short-term dip in earnings and perhaps even dividends, but recessions are also an opportunity for the strong to take market share from the weak.
That’s because recessions cause more damage to weak Read More >
15th December 2022
My head is full of grizzly mania, the Russian bear is trapped in Ukraine's military bear trap and the black gold bears are laughing all the way to the bank as Brent tanks to $76 and West Texas settled at $71. Does this week define the new Read More >
13th December 2022
After reaching extraordinary valuations, zeitgeist stocks are yet to return to reasonable levels.
In the classic Christmas film Miracle on 34th Street, Kris Kringle is on trial for claiming to be the real Santa Claus. His defence Read More >
13th December 2022
Two once-in-a-generation disruptors joined forces this year. Black swan events are defined as ‘random, unexpected, but high-impact events’. Over the past 12 months, the property sector salons in Cannes, two winter MAPICs and the springtime Read More >
29th November 2022
Part 2: A growing institutional asset class.
Part one of this series began with a broad overview of the marina sector from a property perspective. It touched on the some of the main characteristics which are critical to marina valuation: Read More >
9th November 2022
Blackstone, the LBO boutique founded by legendary Lehman partners Pete Peterson and Stephen Schwarzman, was the flagship IPO of the credit bubble era in 2007. My RMs at Morgan Stanley Dubai told me that some of the biggest sovereign wealth fund Read More >
31st October 2022
The cockroach theory in Wall Street contends that for every one cockroach you see, there are 100 hidden in the woodwork. We saw four Big Tech cockroaches in this earnings season: Microsoft, Alphabet, Texas Instruments and Meta, which can be Read More >
27th October 2022
Originally published August 2022.
Did anyone notice a trend in the residential REITs’ 1st quarter 2022 earnings calls?
From a very high level, renowned C-suite executives from some of the top residential REITs across the country had very Read More >
25th October 2022
Originally published January 2022.
It’s been five years since Neil Turner stepped down from a senior real estate position in the City. He’s been spending time writing fiction, enjoying the Suffolk countryside and the occasional visit back Read More >
24th October 2022
Originally published September 2021.
If I could summarise my most successful investments in one equation it would look something like this:
Cash + Optionality + Astute Capital Allocation = Compounding Machine
Good businesses generate Read More >
20th October 2022
I have always fantasised about buying into a midtown Manhattan office building portfolio since New York City is the nerve center of global finance, banking, digital media, fashion, art and the coolest, most creative yuppies, the best and Read More >
27th September 2022
Brent crude was grossly overvalued at 124 in June and black gold has come down as supply angst is replaced by the very tangible reality of a China where 7% GDP growth is not going to come back for the rest of the decade. Thus demand destruction Read More >
20th September 2022
Our writer reports from court side.
Like many in Paris, I relished last week’s return of two of the most anticipated shows on earth: Top Gun: Maverick and Roland-Garros. Both events had waited a long time to properly open their doors to an Read More >
14th September 2022
"Our currency, your problem." John Connally, Treasury Secretary in the Nixon White House, uttered these words to the world's elite when he torpedoed the Bretton Woods regime's gold link to the US dollar in 1971. Fifty-one years later, the world Read More >
8th September 2022
It is perfectly logical that the summer rally in emerging market debt was aborted the moment Powell spoke at Jackson Hole and risk assets plummeted on the expectations of 'higher for longer' interest rates and QT, which means the global money Read More >
22nd August 2022
Welcome to a slightly delayed 2022 half-year review of the UK Dividend Stocks Portfolio.
My original plan was to review the portfolio in July, but work (mostly a slew of interim results that needed analysing) got in the way, so Read More >
2nd August 2022
The dividing line between Sunak and Truss has been economic policy. Sunak has tried to paint himself as the frugal guardian of the nation’s wealth, with the implication that Truss has got it wrong. The problem is, Rishinomics does not Read More >
26th July 2022
Originally published June 2022.
The UK’s commitment to deliver net zero by 2050 risks more than a cost of living and energy crisis.
By 1 April 2027, it will be illegal to lease a commercial property with an Energy Performance Certificate Read More >
25th July 2022
Originally published July 2022.
Just after the fall of the Berlin Wall, I moved to the city for what proved an intense and life-changing experience. Last week I travelled there for the first time since Covid, starting and ending in the Read More >
18th July 2022
After spending many years as an unloved also-ran, the FTSE 100 is finally getting its moment in the spotlight.
While it hasn't produced any growth in 2022, it has managed to fall by less than just about every other major index on the Read More >
13th July 2022
Originally published October 2021.
If there’s one thing you hear constantly in finance and investing, it’s stay liquid. That bit of advice is so common that most investors, from the smallest to the largest, tend not to question it. But Read More >
12th July 2022
Originally published March 2022.
Today, insurance, social security and modern medicine help us cope when something bad happens. As we manage risk in our day-to-day lives, we can afford to take fewer precautions than our forebears. They faced Read More >
29th June 2022
Rio Tinto's shareholders are probably very happy.
Thanks to significantly higher prices for its core products of iron ore, aluminium and copper, the company's 2021 dividend comes to more than $10.
That's almost twice the previous record Read More >
8th June 2022
(and what can you do about it).
Inflation is expected to exceed 10% later this year and could stay above 5% through 2023, 2024 and perhaps even longer.
And that may be optimistic, seeing as the UK's energy price cap is expected to be Read More >
19th May 2022
The rise of big tech stocks has been more about valuation than profits.
Originally published January 2022.
Ruffer LLP
A bubble in profitless tech and so called ‘meme’ stocks may be bursting in front of our eyes. But, so far, Read More >
28th April 2022
British American Tobacco (BAT) has been out of favour with investors since 2017 when its shares reached a record-high price of more than £56.
Over the next five years, BAT’s shares fell by as much as 50% as investors worried about the Read More >
26th April 2022
In the depths of addiction nothing else matters.
The pursuit is focused, relentless and uncompromising – dismissive of any potential consequences. So what happens when the addiction is to risk?
I learnt about the nature of addiction to Read More >
21st April 2022
Bust or buying opportunity?
In the new territories north of Hong Kong, a vast and lavish property development was planned: a wetlands restoration, hundreds of luxury townhouses, all surrounding the jewel in this property crown – a Palace of Read More >
13th April 2022
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 827.88 to 864.41 (4.41%) compared to the last month update. The Singapore REIT index rebounded off from the support level at 807 three times, broke the 836 resistance Read More >
11th April 2022
Do conventional bonds still deserve a place in portfolios?
Total return on 10-year US Treasuries, adjusted for US CPI inflation %
Global Financial Data, Refinitiv, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ruffer calculations, 24 month rolling total Read More >
7th April 2022
In June 2020, after 80 days of complete ‘confinement’, I wrote a piece about the “Coronavirus Time Machine”. Inspired by too much lockdown Netflix, the imaginary construct was that the unique pandemic moment could either rewind or fast Read More >
16th March 2022
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreased from 816.11 to 827.88 (1.44%) compared to the last monthly update. The Singapore REIT index rebounded off 800 in January 2022 and has stayed within the 800-836 range.Yield Read More >
16th March 2022
Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun.
Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards.
In today’s Read More >
16th February 2022
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreased from 853.35 to 816.11 (-4.37%) compared to the last monthly update. The Singapore REIT index broke the support level of 816 to a low of 799, but has since rebounded to Read More >
9th February 2022
Originally published December 2021.
During the Great Lockdown of 2020, les Echos reported the touristic town of Cannes was one of the five places in France worst affected, alongside Disneyland and Paris CDG airport. Last week, after two years Read More >
8th February 2022
Originally published November 2021.
It has been said and written with such earnest despair to have become practically axiomatic: 22 will prove a year of acute pressure on household finances across the UK, the first year of what could prove Read More >
6th February 2022
Originally published January 2022.
As investment managers, we’re used to being accused of seeing the glass as half-empty rather than half-full. It’s not that we’re inherently pessimistic, but our job is to protect our investors’ Read More >
20th January 2022
When I was on honeymoon in Venice, I spotted a pair of Chinese dragons, one chewing a toenail and the other picking its nose. Smart shop, Grand Canal – my wife, Jane, and I set an upper limit on what we’d pay. We later walked out with the Read More >
18th January 2022
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased slightly from 843.73 to 853.35 (1.14%) compared to the last month's update. Currently the Singapore REIT index is still trading with a range between 816 and 890.Yield spread Read More >
1st December 2021
Am I availing myself of any old sterling excuse?
In the interregnum between voting to leave the EU and actually doing so, I claimed the UK’s final exit would prove largely seamless. And, in being seamless, it would completely remove the Read More >
25th November 2021
The investment drama of a-weighting currency change.
I was presented very recently with a piece of investment bank ‘research’ that made a bold change in recommendation. The piece heralded the first time in five years that the particular Read More >
22nd November 2021
Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary, and others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s.
Source: Office of Read More >
9th November 2021
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased slightly from 842.13 to 872.79 (+3.64%) compared to the last monthly update. Currently the Singapore REIT index is still trading with a range between 816 and 890.Yield spread Read More >
28th October 2021
Originally published February 2021.
The word of this extraordinary winter in Paris has been couvre-feu. The very expression is still heavy with associations from the 1940s occupation, even if the order to “cover your fires!” was Read More >
27th October 2021
Originally published April 2021.
When thinking about successful emerging market investing, the following quote comes to mind: “In an unfamiliar culture, it is wise to offer no innovations, no suggestions, or lessons.” (Maya Angelou, Read More >
7th October 2021
The virus will cast a far-reaching shadow.
As we cross the 18-month mark of the pandemic, we are arguably reaching the point that the descriptor endemic may be a more appropriate term to employ. This is not meant to downgrade the ongoing Read More >
29th September 2021
The FTSE 100 and S&P 500 are trading at very different valuation levels.
US and UK large-cap investors have had very different experiences since the crash of 2009. Over these 12 years, the FTSE 100 more or less doubled, going from a low Read More >
28th September 2021
But what challenges await the US and the wider world?
Over a year after the Covid-19 pandemic spread across the world and crippled economic activity, a recovery is underway. The consensus among economists is for the recovery to be strong, Read More >
23rd September 2021
… was a famous quote of appreciation attributed to Martin Winterkorn, Volkswagen's former CEO, when closing the door of a KIA sedan at a car exhibition a few years ago. While Mr Winterkorn moved from the boardroom to the court room Read More >
23rd September 2021
Back to school, back to work, back to life.
La rentrée means much more than just ‘back to school’. The word also signifies a return to social and professional normality after an extended break. This September, after 18 months of Read More >
22nd September 2021
The Biden administration may yet rue its tax and spend agenda.
Writing a year ago, during the uncertain early days of the pandemic, we predicted that the US government would come to the rescue of the private sector in a manner that was likely Read More >
8th September 2021
“Rain does not fall on one roof alone.” (African proverb)
Albeit debating the reasons along ideological lines, the world is getting to grips that climate change is an undeniable fact. Apart from pandemics, the subject is likely to Read More >
1st September 2021
Poland offers attractive investment possibilities post-Covid.
We have now undergone a year and half of unprecedented interference in all aspects of our lives including, of course, in business. In an attempt to combat the serious consequences Read More >
17th August 2021
Originally published April 2021.
This year, a Paris property pioneer celebrates 50 years living and working in France. In half a century of developing office properties, the resilient Paul Raingold has navigated many cycles of boom, bust and Read More >
16th August 2021
What Blackstone's recent US housing deals tell us.
In late June 2021, Blackstone acquired Home Partners of America Inc (HPA), a company owning roughly 17,000 single-family homes across the US, which is as much of a rent escalation play as it Read More >
16th August 2021
Originally published April 2021.
Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.
Whichever side of the inflation debate Read More >
11th August 2021
Is this the digital worlds last frontier?
"We are all now connected by the internet, like neurons in a giant brain" –Stephen Hawking
Looking at a map depicting global internet user penetration verifies this thought, but also leaves an Read More >
2nd August 2021
A casual geographic inspection of property yields across the UK’s CRE – inclusive of its PRS – reveals a premium not merely outside London, but the entire South.
To be clear, this ‘Northern value discount’ does not capture poor Read More >
29th July 2021
Originally published January 2021.
A few months ago I came up with a simple way to categorise companies and their shares based on their most important attributes.
For me, those most important attributes are quality, defensiveness and Read More >
27th July 2021
There is a tendency to over-emphasise China at the expense of a full appreciation of the activities of other foreign actors, including entities from the European Union.
Investment inflows over the past 20 years introduced a steep change in Read More >
26th July 2021
Originally published January 2021.
Real estate distress cycles generally offer rich pickings to investors, but that’s unlikely to happen this time – and here’s why.
This article discusses the potential path for a distress cycle in US Read More >
22nd July 2021
Last week, I went to an airport. This was my first time since February 2020 – a period of over 500 days. I felt both excitement and trepidation at revisiting this once too-familiar routine. Just a few years ago, I might have passed through an Read More >
22nd July 2021
Could this provide a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario?
Economic commentators and central bankers seem at last to be taking inflation risk seriously, rather than assume that current inflationary pressures constitute a short-term phenomena as the Read More >
14th July 2021
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased slightly from 849.11 to 868.08 (2.23%) compared to the last monthly update. Currently the Singapore REIT index is still trading with a range between 816 and 880.Yield spread Read More >
12th July 2021
Surfing a wave of institutional adoption... and liquidity.
The best investments are often the least comfortable ones. This is certainly the case with our decision to add bitcoin exposure to Ruffer’s portfolios in November last year.
Many Read More >
28th June 2021
The brasserie next to my office is a classic. A chalkboard shows the plats du jour. The waiters in crisp black waistcoats glide between tables. The corner terrasse catches the lunchtime sun. Customers watch the world from wicker chairs facing Read More >
21st June 2021
I love companies that can grow for decades.
The best sort of growth reinforces the business model, which in turn makes future growth more likely. Network effects and economies of scale from greater purchasing power, or leveraging fixed Read More >
15th June 2021
“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the US economy will likely boom. This Read More >
3rd June 2021
Originally published in March 2021.
Like many readers, I took advantage of the best snow in years to go sledging with my daughters. As Daddy bombed down the hill like Bowser in Mario Kart, my mortality flashed before me and I realised I was Read More >
2nd June 2021
Originally published in April 2021.
Needless to say, covid-19 has caused significant dislocations in all aspects of our daily lives. One of these has been a major shift in working practices. Almost overnight, those of us who were primarily Read More >
2nd June 2021
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations among global real estate investors and their stakeholders have gained traction over the past few years due to the increasing attention on climate change, heightened by the Covid-19 Read More >
26th May 2021
The UK’s sailed through many a rough patch and come out all the better – so Brexit’s not a worry! But why the hell can’t we win the America’s Cup?
After too many years in the City, experience has taught me that stuff happens if Read More >
13th May 2021
This article was originally published in December 2020..
The spring lockdown did not stop UK M&A in its tracks, but activity slowed. Faced with the fog of economic uncertainty, some buyers put their chequebooks back in the drawer, and Read More >
12th May 2021
This article was originally published in January 2021.
Traditionally, real estate was often viewed as little more than a downside hedge for a diversified portfolio. This reflects its low correlation with equities and bonds and its perceived Read More >
12th May 2021
Working at home is something many of us have got used to – maybe too used to – over the past year. In a strange way we are recapitulating the experience of our ancestors. For most of human history, home working was the norm – whether Read More >
11th May 2021
The 60th week of a long holiday is about to start. France, the single most visited tourist venue on the planet, is having a vacation – from tourism. In 2019, France sat at the top of the global tourist visits league – as it has for decades. Read More >
11th May 2021
Many parts of the economy have suffered no ill effects from Covid – the US government should restrain its largesses
One year after the emergence of covid as a threat to our daily existence, a peculiar narrative has taken hold whereby the Read More >
5th May 2021
When the annual PERE/Sousou Partners 2021 compensation survey appeared in my LinkedIn feed earlier this year, I couldn’t help but notice the somber headline: Private real estate firms cancel bonuses during the pandemic!
Briefly Read More >
15th March 2021
“We don’t know what we don’t know,” as Donald Rumsfeld once said when asked whether intelligence gathered had been shared adequately across the US intelligence community. Applied to the economies of Africa, the meaning goes even deeper, Read More >
10th March 2021
With its resurrection following the Second World War and the unification of East and West, Germany has had a remarkable journey over the past 75 years. In particular its stable and reliable public service has been a model for others. This has Read More >
23rd February 2021
Öslem Tureci and Uğur Şahin – the founders of BionTech, which, together with Pfizer, pioneered one of the first covid-19 vaccines – are remarkable individuals in a wider sense. While their scientific research and business success, leading Read More >
15th February 2021
For almost a year, we have personally witnessed friends and colleagues sharing pictures of their working-from-home digs. At the onset of the pandemic, we would see shots of a laptop on a bistro table situated on patios, balconies or even Read More >
9th February 2021
What do investors want right now? Which are their preferred opportunities, and what do you need to know about them? This series sums up what one European investment adviser has gathered from his online meetings, conferences and other Read More >
4th February 2021
On 20 January 2021 the Czech lower house of parliament passed a bipartisan bill that, if enacted, would potentially pose a significant threat to one of the EU’s core elements, its single market with 450 million consumers.
If approved in the Read More >
3rd February 2021
This article was originally published in Winter 2019.
With Brexit uncertainty hitting London hardest and high-grade office supply tight in the capital, investors are looking to other UK cities
Brexit and now the general election have been Read More >
3rd February 2021
Consumers won’t turn back from e-commerce now – so what do institutional investors need to know about the logistics property market?
The influence of e-commerce on the daily life of many Americans became clear to me when my 92-year-old Read More >
1st February 2021
There are naturally those sceptical of any new way of thinking or challenge to the status quo. The notion of universal basic income (UBI) as a panacea to what ails society is of course an attractive one but is not a mast to which many advocates Read More >
1st February 2021
While some argue that covid-19 measures are the start of a permanent new universal basic income (UBI) to mitigate the risk that societies are entirely torn apart, others see UBI as a draw for (younger) people to migrate to cities. Another line Read More >
26th January 2021
With each economic crisis that has hit since 2008, we have witnessed the central banks of many developed nations engaging in ever more voluminous quantitative easing. Against this backdrop, we should not have been surprised that supporters of Read More >
26th January 2021
China’s position on the world stage is changing rapidly as it moves to become a strategic competitor to incumbent economic powerhouses. Not least because of the recent trade conflict between the US and China and its long-term fallout as well Read More >
15th January 2021
The global financial crisis had a significant influence on the present tax framework – so how might the battering now being taken by state finances manifest itself in tax policy?
As the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, Rishi Sunak, stood Read More >
14th January 2021
In the early years of my career, I wanted to start my own business. Stories of entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley captured my imagination, and in 1994 I took the plunge. In 2000 we sold our business to a public company, and promptly watched the Read More >
13th January 2021
China’s position on the world stage is changing rapidly as it moves to become a strategic competitor to incumbent economic powerhouses. Not least because of the recent trade conflict between the US and China and its long-term fallout as well Read More >
6th January 2021
This booming sector can help drive the UK recovery – and it’s hungry for space.
The search for a covid-19 vaccine has shone a light on the life sciences sector and the many research institutions around the UK that have committed Read More >
6th January 2021
After lumbering around the $1trn-$2trn assets under management mark for quite some time, central bank policies in the wake of the global financial crisis were a long-awaited shot in the arm for the private capital industry.
Faced with Read More >
8th December 2020
The consensus is that we are in a K-shaped recovery – that means winners and losers. We are not all in this together.
The unique shape of the covid-19 crisis and accompanying recession has meant some industries have thrived whilst others Read More >
7th December 2020
Last week we looked at historical lessons derived from prior pandemics. Today we will expand into determining the likely economic fallout of covid-19, consider the capital market feedback and map the way forward.
How do we value the covid-19 Read More >
3rd December 2020
Many people concerned about the possibility of inflation caused by the debasement of currencies, such as myself, were strongly influenced by the 2009 book by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time is Different, which catalogues the causes Read More >
30th November 2020
When looking at a chart of the S&P 500, you would think we were entering a depression or nearing the apocalypse. But what are the real impacts of a pandemic like covid-19? The stock market is an easy gauge to follow for sentiment, but how Read More >
26th November 2020
The global economy is facing years of uncertainty. The UN has warned of a lost decade as the scarring effects on the economy of covid-19 are worked through. Investors, government and the public sector need to come together to tackle this Read More >
24th November 2020
Consumers won’t turn back from e-commerce now – so what do institutional investors need to know about the logistics property market?
The influence of e-commerce on the daily life of many Americans became clear to me when my 92-year-old Read More >
21st November 2020
Why low bond yields may mean you need to rethink your portfolio construction.
The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets Read More >
11th November 2020
This article was originally published in October 2020.
I am ashamed to admit that after ten years living in UAE, I think I care less about my home country than I did. I love so much about it; don’t get me wrong. As the place where my Read More >
11th November 2020
Whatever the coronavirus has done to the global economy, the effects are likely to be fairly short-term – aside from in aviation.
At the start of 2020 we were convinced it would be a year of financial correction – a realisation of just Read More >
3rd November 2020
I believe it is now time to bottom fish in Singapore property developers and selected REITs on SGX. Why?
One, Singapore benefits from US supply chain reconfigurations away from China and Hong Kong’s pro-democracy political unrest. Two, Read More >
2nd November 2020
This article was originally published in autumn 2019.
I’m sure you will know that well-known fund manager Neil Woodford has recently fallen very much out of favour with investors. Reputedly in the wake of withdrawals by some big investors Read More >
29th October 2020
With offices, hospitality and retail all on the slide, industrial property looks set to become the best bet in global real estate.
While much of the global property market is in a bear market spiral, the pandemic has been a dramatic Read More >
26th October 2020
The nation is bouncing back faster than most in Europe and is increasingly attractive to investors.
Those looking for a glimmer of success amid global difficulty – and a good jurisdiction in which to invest – could do worse than Poland. Read More >
23rd October 2020
Source: Ruffer, MacroHistory database, TS Lombard
Chancellor Sunak will need a Plan B.
The coronavirus pandemic has hit public finances like a war. Across the world governments have scrambled to offset the economic and social impact of the Read More >
22nd October 2020
We all need reminding of why investment returns are so important for so many in the private sector. Until the 1980s most employees retired on pensions provided by their employers and related to their final salaries. Employers put aside and Read More >
16th October 2020
When I was a boy, there was a programme on the telly where a smiley Arthur Askey interviewed ‘ordinary people’. It was more of a challenge than a conversation – if the interviewee replied “yes”, “no”, or “dunno”, there would be Read More >
13th October 2020
A recent survey by valuation and research specialists Wüest Partner Germany provides useful insight into the range of real estate funds currently available for German institutional investors – and highlights the weighting given to German Read More >
13th October 2020
The world has been turned upside down by this pandemic, along with the prospects of many companies.
Perhaps some of your own holdings have soared to unexpected highs, or collapsed to unexpected lows. Several of my holdings certainly have. Read More >
8th October 2020
The European real estate market environment remains incredibly uncertain. While the severity of the current recession is significantly worse than the global financial crisis, real estate markets have, at worst, been subdued.
Outright distress Read More >
7th October 2020
‘New’ economy stocks have surged over the past five years, but unfashionable value may be about to have its moment in the sun.
US internet shares have been roaring ahead, particularly in recent months. The coronavirus crisis has Read More >
7th October 2020
“Back to life, back to reality” – prescient words written by Mr Jazzie B. OBE for his number one hit in the summer of 1989. Industries, livelihoods and, undoubtedly, future geopolitical direction currently ride on the answer to when Read More >
6th October 2020
Governments and central banks have had to resort to intervention on a massive scale – there will be a price to pay for the distortion caused.
Consequences. It’s always about the consequences. It’s a pleasure to write something for the Read More >
1st October 2020
Real estate probably isn’t one of the first industries that comes to mind when thinking about climate change – but it should be. Globally, the built environment is responsible for around 40% of energy-related carbon emissions, so getting to Read More >
29th September 2020
FTSE ST REIT Index increased slightly from 835.40 to 854.51 (+2.28%) on the month update.REIT Index has rebounded circa 45% as of 12 September from the bottom on 23 March 2020.Yield spread (reference to ten-year Singapore government Read More >
25th September 2020
In the 1990s, the South African property market was largely directly owned and managed by insurance companies and pension funds, while the listed market was in its infancy at the time. But over the last two-and-a-half decades, the landscape has Read More >
22nd September 2020
Housing activity – starts and permits – posted mixed results in August as declines in the multi-family segment offset gains in the single-family segment. Within the single-family area, there were gains in starts and permits with strength Read More >
22nd September 2020
Housing is needed. Green space is precious. And, after the coronavirus, some offices could be left empty. Anyone currently campaigning against the obvious solution of converting disused office space into housing would surely be Read More >
21st September 2020
The late Anwar Sadat, when president of Egypt, called 1973 his autumn of destiny. I call 2020 my autumn of destiny because four of the world’s top software/fintech will go public in IPOs in Hong Kong or New York. Each of these IPOs will be Read More >
16th September 2020
Summary
Xaar is a relatively young and small leading-edge technology business which I bought in mid-2018It’s a good example of how excessive R&D in highly cyclical businesses can produce bad resultsI sold because a 90% increase in Read More >
16th September 2020
The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25 million people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of Read More >
15th September 2020
There is talk that working from home has become so ingrained and old working arrangements so untenable in this new, socially distanced world that it will force city-centre offices to repurpose. When I hear such a claim that office blocks will Read More >
9th September 2020
Rapid changes are under way across the spectrum of different asset classes, and investors will need to adapt their approach.
Investors are working hard to assess what recent pandemic-driven changes will mean for different asset classes. In Read More >
9th September 2020
In the past 18 years, after a series of spectacular and occasionally failed rocket launches, Elon Musk’s SpaceX has emerged as Silicon Valley’s next colossus, a once in a generation business in the same league as an Amazon, a Google or a Read More >
3rd September 2020
“I don’t love the idea of being a house cat, but what’s the solution?”
When you are looking for someone to blame remember this: The Market is not stupid. Participants are.
When Fed heads and economists are warning of more Read More >
1st September 2020
Since the market crash of 2008/2009, The FTSE 100 and S&P 500 have produced very different results. Some of this is down to fundamental factors such as differences in revenue, earnings and dividend growth, but much of it is down to sentiment Read More >
26th August 2020
The dividend has continued to increase without interruption, up from 65c to 70c. That’s 11 years of increase, and compares with 5.966c in 2006.
Funds from operations (FFO) in the first half alone have increased by 4.1%, from 87c to 91c – Read More >
26th August 2020
Beware of hasty and alarmist predictions. This crisis does not call into question the sector’s fundamentals and key trends. The current period is however a good opportunity for a strategic deepening of landlord-tenant relations.
In such Read More >
25th August 2020
FTSE ST REIT Index has little changes from 837.43 to 835.40 (-0.35%) on the month update.REIT Index has rebounded c43% as of July 12 from the bottom on Mar 23, 2020.Yield spread (reference to 10-year Singapore government bond of Read More >
18th August 2020
Source: FactSet, data to 31 July 2020. Download the data set
The US internet shares have been roaring ahead, particularly in recent months. The coronavirus crisis has accelerated the shift toward online retail and smart communications, Read More >
12th August 2020
WACC is an acronym that stands for “weighted average cost of capital” and this is one of the most important metrics we use in the REIT sector.
The WACC is similar to the required rate of return that an investor expects from his investment Read More >
31st July 2020
After a roller coaster first half of 2020, now seems like a good time to review the CAPE ratio for the FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and, for US-focused investors, the S&P 500.
FTSE 100 CAPE ratio review
The FTSE 100 has had a tough time over the Read More >
30th July 2020
In the past 18 years, after a series of spectacular and occasionally failed rocket launches, Elon Musk’s SpaceX has emerged as Silicon Valley’s next colossus, a once in a generation business in the same league as an Amazon, a Google or a Read More >
28th July 2020
It is not news that the coronavirus has changed the real estate industry, in some cases irrevocably. The move towards home working has raised some questions over how offices will operate, while our dependence on efficient supply chains has seen Read More >
23rd July 2020
FTSE ST REIT Index up 823.64 to 837.43 (+1.67%) on the month update.REIT Index has rebounded c43% as of July 12 from the bottom on Mar 23, 2020.Yield spread (reference to 10-year Singapore government bond of 0.896%) has tightened from Read More >
21st July 2020
Income-hungry investors beware: coronavirus fallout makes High Yield even higher risk
Value investing is dead! Warren Buffet knows nothing! Long live drawing random Scrabble tiles out of a bag to pick stocks!
So says day-trading Read More >
17th July 2020
With all that is distracting commentator’s attention there is one issue that is travelling below the radar, but if in years to come we look back on the Covid 19 era and the final months of President Trump’s tumultuous reign, the success or Read More >
16th July 2020
There is barely a facet of life that has been unaffected by the coronavirus pandemic. One of its most visible impacts has been on the use of real estate – shops and pubs have shut, offices stand empty and housing market activity has slowed to Read More >
15th July 2020
Investing is about competing visions of the future. Different perspectives on the outlook at a macro, market and asset level are embedded in estimates of an asset’s value. Given the long-term nature of real estate, understanding structural Read More >
14th July 2020
If you think about German banking, your first thoughts are likely Deutsche Bank’s history of negative headlines and crashing stock price over the last many years. There is a widely held perception across the financial markets that Germans are Read More >
14th July 2020
ARTICLE ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 27TH OCTOBER 2017
Given time, most industries develop a jargon which allows participants to exude a professional glow and some degree of intellectual superiority when addressing outsiders (especially when poised to Read More >
1st July 2020
* FTSE ST REIT Index up 745.45 to 823.64 (+10.49%) on the month update.
* Index has rebounded c41% as of June 12 closed after hitting the recent high of 878 (c.50% rebound from the bottom).
* Yield spread (reference Read More >
1st July 2020
Call it what you will. The Covid-19 pandemic. The Great Lockdown. The Coronavirus Recession. Whatever label you give it, it remains unprecedented. Never in history has more than 60% of the global population come under this kind of lock-and-key Read More >
30th June 2020
In over 30 years of involvement in US real estate, I have never encountered a dilemma in institutional office investment similar to what we are experiencing today. About half of my peers at Barings, and around the industry, are expecting a Read More >
19th June 2020
Once a month we will bring you an interesting chart with a short commentary. Our aim is to illuminate the corners of financial markets.
This time really is different - US unemployment is ‘off the scale’
The sheer scale of the Read More >
16th June 2020
This article goes back to basics and outlines why a consistent record of dividend payments is the first thing I look for in a company, and why dividend cover is the first of many ratios in my investment spreadsheet.
Dividends make up the Read More >
9th June 2020
Coronavirus was the catalyst for the market turmoil, but it was the pathology of the financial world, and its interaction with the markets – not a prediction of a pandemic – which gave us our dispositions. The sharp falls, and the buoyancy Read More >
13th May 2020
Balance sheets show the trade-off between resilience and optimisation
% of companies with net cash
Source: CLSA, Factset as at 21 April 2020
As we highlighted last month, coronavirus is especially dangerous for patients with Read More >
20th April 2020
In engineering, noise is a disturbance around a signal and engineers have become good at extracting signals from the noise. In investing, noise comes in many forms and actions are determined by noise, signals or a combination of Read More >
17th April 2020
In this article I look at the S&P 500’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, the impact on CAPE valuations and what that means for the index’s expected ten-year returns.
The world is in the grip of a rapidly expanding pandemic Read More >
17th April 2020
The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.
S&P performance until surpassing -20% threshold, number of trading days
It was the avalanche we have long feared. From record Read More >
16th April 2020
The economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic should not be underestimated.
It is, in my opinion, likely to produce a severe recession in the UK as well as a global recession, and has already led to a swathe of dividend cuts and suspensions Read More >
16th April 2020
As I mentioned in my last missive, markets are reacting to expectations of the future rather than the horrors of the present. At the time of writing, despite its welcome recovery, the FTSE 100 remains 25% below its 2020 high, but in the thick of Read More >
3rd April 2020
When the elements speak, elemental forces are unleashed, and it is important, in the middle of this storm, to capture the right tone of voice. Any false attempt to give reassurance, to boast about early success, to bury oneself in clichés, is Read More >
1st April 2020
Investors who rely on dividends for a large part of their income should prepare for significant dividend cuts and suspensions in 2020.
In recent weeks, stock markets around the world have crashed as a direct result of the coronavirus Read More >
26th March 2020
Jo Welman’s thoughts about the macro investment outlook communicated to his investment clients:
At the close of business last night the FTSE 100 had fallen 43% in 2020 and the FTSE 250 which includes medium sized companies had fallen even Read More >
16th March 2020
Unless you are a hermit living in a very remote cave, I’m sure you’re aware of the coronavirus pandemic.
And if you have any interest in investing, then you also probably know that stock markets around the globe have suffered what can Read More >
20th February 2020
What on earth is going on?
MSCI developed markets growth versus value
Source: Minack Advisors †Ratio of growth/value one year ahead forecast EPS *Growth/value indices for MSCI developed markets
Gravity is a universal constant. But Read More >
13th February 2020
Lisbon, Portugal’s capital, is the best performing property market in Western Europe, a magnet for investors from the EU and 8,000 plus non-EU citizens who have taken advantage of the minority Socialist government’s “golden visa” program Read More >
21st January 2020
The looming crisis in list stocks and bonds is driving interest in alternatives – but their inherent illiquidity can defeat risk managers’ comprehension.
Alternatives is becoming a busy market. It would appear the global asset allocation Read More >
3rd January 2020
WeWork’s ill-fated IPO is the tip of an iceberg
WeWork revenue and operating losses and 'valuation' (US$)
Riddle me this. We eat $229,000 every hour, every day, year after year. We are in nearly 500 places at the same time. We lose a Read More >
2nd January 2020
Long-term property returns derive from income and its compounding potential – that’s precisely what REITs were created to deliver
During the first half of 2007, Apple launched its first iPhone and the UK government introduced the REIT Read More >
20th December 2019
As a group, UK housebuilders have produced astonishingly good financial results over the last decade.
This has given their shareholders equally astonishing returns, with average share price gains from the largest housebuilders at close to Read More >
19th December 2019
Pumping cash into the economy was meant to make us all better off. Instead the money got locked into stocks and bonds to enrich the wealthy, while austerity made everyone else poorer
The editor of this esteemed publication recently asked me Read More >
17th December 2019
The markets go from strength to strength as the real world around them struggles to stay standing – surely this can’t last?
There’s a childhood game, whose name changes each generation – currently called Jenga. It starts as a wall of Read More >
21st November 2019
US Companies are paying shareholders more than they can afford
Dividends and buybacks have exceeded free cash flow levels since 2013
Source: Capital Group. Universe is made up of 2,902 non-financial US-based companies that represent Read More >
8th November 2019
The Restaurant Group (which I’ll shorten to TRG) joined the model portfolio in early 2016, shortly after the company published some very upbeat 2015 results.
Revenues were up 8% while earnings and dividends per share were up 13%, continuing Read More >
29th October 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:A summary of Fund performanc
A summary of Fund performance
The table below shows the average Q3 2019, YTD 2019, 3 and 5 year returns for the mandates in our database. As can be Read More >
29th October 2019
They’ll soon be two-fifths of consumers, so financial advisers must learn to see the world their way
In today’s world things change fast, and it can be hard to keep up with new trends and the opportunities they bring, especially in the Read More >
21st October 2019
Bavarian logistics property company VIB Vermoegen is using an admirable combination of trusted partnering and smart geographical thinking
I want to talk here about a blue banana, but so as not to confuse you, let me explain first that this is Read More >
15th October 2019
Property investors have an unfortunate habit of not looking very far ahead
The real estate sector has a propensity to underestimate change, perhaps because change has historically been at a rather glacial rate within the industry. In my 30 Read More >
8th October 2019
There’s a childhood game, whose name changes each generation – currently called Jenga. It starts as a wall of wooden bricks, and successive players remove individual pieces until the loser takes one out, and down falls the edifice. Its drama Read More >
3rd October 2019
REITs are becoming what they always should have been: low-leveraged balance sheets and long-term income streams with a sustainable, growing dividend
Three features stand out for me in the quoted property sector this year. First, the Read More >
23rd September 2019
Investors chasing growth stocks creates both danger and opportunities
PE premium for UK growth stocks over UK value
Stock market manias always start with some grounding in solid fact, before investors get carried away and drive up Read More >
20th September 2019
Cross-border transactions now account for a third of property deals, and the most transparent markets hold the most appeal
Investment in many mature real estate markets is booming and this has been the case for about ten years now. At the Read More >
29th August 2019
A continuing upward trend makes this a good defensive asset class amid global uncertainty
Early this summer the FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts index broke through the 875 level after 10 years of resistance, with a Read More >
31st July 2019
A five-year review of the real estate debt demand
Twenty-nineteen marks five years since Laxfield Capital, a commercial property lending company, released their first report on the demand for debt in the UK property market. Such a report, Read More >
24th July 2019
Common difficulties and how to avoid them
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are a favourite asset class for income seeking investors looking for regular dividends. However, there are a number of difficulties regularly experienced by Read More >
11th July 2019
Above-average returns seem likely for the FTSE 100
Over the last 25 years or so, the FTSE 100 has repeatedly zig-zagged between 3500 and 7000, swinging back and forth between bull market and bear market.
As I write, the UK large-cap index Read More >
9th July 2019
When the Governor of the Bank of England speaks, it is always worth listening to, and he is on to something when he writes about market liquidity; he is surely right to flag the dangers of the narrow exit doors in a crowded investment room. We Read More >
21st June 2019
In the face of declining retail property values and highly leveraged companies, a new structure might be needed
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have been a huge success globally, providing an income-producing, liquid, tax-efficient Read More >
18th June 2019
Politics, emigration and the modern family are only a few of the challenges of wealth and succession planning today
There is no lack of data on the vast, and growing, amounts of wealth set to be passed from generation to generation in the Read More >
17th June 2019
The percentage of unprofitable companies listing on public markets has never been higher.
Percentage of US IPOs which are loss-making
This is the year of the tech unicorn IPO. So far we have had Uber, Lyft, Beyond Meat and Pinterest; Read More >
13th June 2019
Poor old Sainsbury’s. Its share price is currently lower than at any time over the last 25 years and appears to be in free-fall.
But how can this be? Surely Sainsbury’s is a defensive dividend payer with a long record of unbroken dividend Read More >
12th June 2019
‘If membership of the Eurozone had been confined to the original ‘Deutschemark Block’ - Germany, France, Holland, Belgium and Luxembourg which met the Euro’s initial convergence criteria - the Euro could have been a success. However Read More >
6th June 2019
Have you been to The Bahamas?
I was just in beautiful Nassau. And there’s no description for those waters other than 'exquisite.'
In fact, it's hard to take your eyes off of the stunning array of blues and greens, while you breathe in Read More >
29th May 2019
As you might very well know, real estate investment trusts, also known as REITs, are legally required to pay out no less than 90% of their taxable income. That’s how they’re structured to operate in the U.S., and they’re not allowed to Read More >
24th May 2019
By Brad Thomas and Michael Boyd
Sometimes, you’ve got to switch it up to keep your portfolio properly diversified. That’s why this isn’t the first time we’ve sung the praises of buying into alternative asset classes.
When people Read More >
22nd May 2019
UK long dated index-linked bond price
Image Source: Ruffer LLP and Bloomberg (UK 2055 index-linked bond)
We live in extraordinary times, and looking at recent political developments, both here and abroad, there is a risk that they Read More >
17th May 2019
A version of this article first appeared in the May 2019 edition of the Forbes Real Estate Investor.
Every May for the past 20 years, I’ve made a pilgrimage up to Las Vegas. I call it a pilgrimage because it’s a long flight with Read More >
8th May 2019
For most investors 2018 was a year to forget and from peak to trough, the FTSE All-Share index lost about 16% of its starting value.
For many this was too much to take and several subscribers informed me of their decision to exit the stock Read More >
3rd May 2019
Much has happened since my last Brexit forecast but I reckon that odds on the core Brexit outcomes might have remained remarkably stable. The ‘No Deal’ option has evaporated for the time being while according to hints in the weekend's press, Read More >
23rd April 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:
1) A summary of Fund performance
The table below shows the average March 2019, Q1 2019 and 5 year returns for the mandates in our Read More >
19th April 2019
Most investors found 2018 to be a bumpy ride and I was no exception.
The market price of my portfolio declined by more than 10% during the year, which was mildly annoying. But that’s not really what I’m talking about.
When I talk about Read More >
17th April 2019
Rightmove is an incredible business. In the 11 years since it listed on the stock exchange its:
Revenues have gone up by more than 370%, going from £57 million to £268 millionEarnings have gone up by more than 1100%, going from 1.4p per Read More >
16th April 2019
Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)
The FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REITs Index) continued its bullish rally, raising from 832.03 to 842.91 (+1.31%) as compared to my last post on Singapore REIT Read More >
12th April 2019
‘Timing is everything’ runs the investment cliché – actually it’s not: being right is better. In any event, spare a thought for the writer of this investment review who has been told that it must be in final form by 27 March. Of all Read More >
1st April 2019
Real estate share prices have been implicitly forecasting property declines that are yet to materialise – what’s going on?
The most noticeable impact of the EU referendum in June 2016 upon the UK real estate sector has been the sharp Read More >
27th March 2019
BAE Systems is an obvious choice for dividend investors.That's because:
(1) BAE Systems is the UK's largest defence manufacturer which should make it a relatively defensive company (governments may cut defence spending during Read More >
21st March 2019
I might look very silly by the end of the month but there will not be a no deal Brexit. Neither side can afford this outcome. Sadly my crystal ball doesn’t run to how soft the Brexit will be, but what we do know is that a process of Read More >
14th March 2019
The FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REITs Index) continued its bullish rally, raising from 832.03 to 842.91 (+1.31%) as compared to my last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Feb Read More >
6th March 2019
Excerpts of this article appeared in the March 2019 edition of the Forbes Real Estate Investor.
March is one of my favorite months in the year, especially because that’s when the biggest college basketball tournament takes place, and Read More >
1st March 2019
As readers know, I’ve shown time and again how REITs are a great source of generous, safe, and growing income over time, and a favorite among high-yield investors – a group that includes those with low-risk tolerances such as retirees Read More >
15th February 2019
Once a month we will bring you an interesting chart with a short commentary. Our aim is to illuminate the corners of financial markets.
TINA turning?
Rising returns on cash may cause investors to withdraw from riskier assets such as Read More >
12th February 2019
When considering the investment risks that would arise from the implementation of an anti-capitalist labour manifesto, we should start by considering both the likelihood of this outcome and the form of Brexit that will provide the economic and Read More >
29th January 2019
Having completed another satisfying, successful year as a U.S.-based REIT analyst, I found myself again curious and wanting a closer look at REITs in the European continent – which is geographically slightly larger than the U.S., but sports a Read More >
18th January 2019
“I thought you chaps at Ruffer said that you’d never lose money for me – what’s gone wrong?”
The weakness in markets reflects the passing of an inflexion point of mood: from a sensation that we’ve been living through extremely Read More >
18th January 2019
For income-hungry investors that have hoovered-up corporate debt in recent years, this really matters.
Call me nostalgic, but investment grade (IG) credit just isn’t what it used to be.
Theoretically, IG bonds and borrowers are highly Read More >
10th January 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:
1) A summary of 2018 performance
The table below, shows the average 2018 performance per mandate, and is ranked by 2018 returns with 2017 and 2016 figures for comparison. Read More >
7th January 2019
As we ended 2018, I noticed a quite compelling place that REITs serve in a well-balanced diversified portfolio. While Real Estate Investment Trusts (commonly referred to as REITs) tend to get attention due to their yields, investors would be wise Read More >
1st January 2019
The American economy is booming thanks to President Trump’s pro-growth policies, and now the President can set his sights on ensuring that prosperity reaches every nook and cranny of the country.
In a move designed to help underperforming Read More >
28th December 2018
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) has increased from 767.98 to 783.05 (+1.96%) compared to my last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on 5 November 2018.
Currently the index is trading in a Read More >
17th December 2018
The U.S. hasn’t seen a large and protracted trade war since the early 1930s, which coincided with the Great Depression. With the U.S./China trade war escalating through most of 2018 it has been a confusing and scary time for all investors. Read More >
3rd December 2018
Last week, in these pages, I talked about what I’ve discovered over several decades in Real Estate. Not only these days as a U.S.-based writer, covering Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), but also in my time as a developer, investor, and Read More >
27th November 2018
The Singapore REIT sector has broken down from a consolidation pattern and starts a down trend. Let’s look at the technical analysis and fundamental analysis for the Singapore REIT sector in this month’s update.
Technical Analysis of FTSE Read More >
26th November 2018
In 2009, prior to becoming a REIT analyst, I was a real estate developer. This means that I was working in the trenches trying to develop sites for companies like CVS, Dollar General and Advance Auto Parts. It wasn’t easy to grasp the impact of Read More >
15th November 2018
Recently I was reading an article by LBX Investments explaining that “autonomous vehicles are expected to eventually have a transformative impact on our economy, our society, and numerous industries, including commercial real estate and by Read More >
9th November 2018
In a recent interview with NAREIT Scott Crowe said that “year-to-date the global real estate market has been relatively flat; however Europe has been relatively strong”. He explained that “in Europe, for the moment at least, the European Read More >
1st November 2018
For today’s look into REITs, we’ll uncover the meaning and benefit of a “moat” surrounding a given investment. I’ll also offer my list of the 12 most “moat-worthy” REITs.
Let’s start upstream.
In a Harvard Review article, Read More >
18th October 2018
As a committed, passionate, and experienced REIT analyst, part of my steadfast research includes observing principles I can rely on time after time, to deliver alpha and deliver results - and then, share my findings. That’s part of why I Read More >
12th October 2018
Retirement satisfaction is positively correlated with income, net worth, health, and stable income streams.
Reports state that investors, who record the lowest levels of worry, don’t have the highest income prior to retirement. However, Read More >
4th October 2018
Just over a thousand kilometers southeast of London sit the mountainous, chilled vistas of Davos, Switzerland. And while I’ve never skied there, I’ve enjoyed invitations to the major economic gatherings in that beautiful, small, yet Read More >
3rd October 2018
So far, in my previous articles, I have introduced the 3 most important financial ratios for analysing and shortlisting REITs, and also the FTSE ST REIT index to gauge the Singapore REITs market sentiment. Moving forward, I will give an overall Read More >
1st October 2018
This monthly report from Consilia Capital on fund performance looks at a number of different topics.
August performance - which strategies performed best?
Global real estate securities funds returns August 2018
Source: Consilia Read More >
26th September 2018
In 2016, my co-author and I decided to publish a book called The Intelligent REIT Investor. The book was published just in time, as U.S. REITs were elevated to a new real estate sector in the closely watched Global Industry Classification Read More >
20th September 2018
President Trump announced new tariffs this week on around $200 billion in Chinese goods, and Mr. Market just shrugged it off, as The Art of The Deal was old news.
In fact, tough negotiation was a common thread running through President Read More >
7th September 2018
Returning recently from the EPRA (European Public Real Estate Association) conference in Berlin I was struck by the accelerating pace of change that is now (finally) underway within the UK REIT sector. A sector, it is fair to say, that has not Read More >
6th September 2018
In this article I will share the three most important financial ratios when analysing and shortlisting REITs. I call them the three musketeers of REITs. The 1st musketeer’s name is Yield, he gives you money; the 2nd musketeer’s name is Read More >
6th September 2018
Raising capital for real estate funds has been tougher over the past two years – declining to $124bn in 2017 from $128bn in 2016 and $137bn in 2016 and 2015. By contrast, however, real estate debt managers are seeing allocations increase. In Read More >
22nd August 2018
Most retail (i.e. non-institutional) investors tend to hold their real estate allocation through a collective investment vehicle, or fund. For listed real estate Read More >
21st August 2018
First, let me offer up my thanks. It’s been over a week since my introductory article appeared here, and I’ve been hearing the response was very good. I’m so grateful. Thank you.
This week I want to touch on “risk” … when Read More >
13th August 2018
Please allow me to skip a fuller introduction of myself - time is short, your time valuable, and article word counts understandably limited.
First, thank you for including me in The Property Chronicle. I am honored and humbled to share my Read More >
8th August 2018
In my last article for The Property Chronicle, I gave an overview on:
The definition REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust)
The reasons to invest in REITs as an alternative to physical real estate investment
The Benefit and drawback on Read More >
18th July 2018
What are REITs?
REITs are collective investment schemes that invest in a portfolio of income generating real estate assets. The assets of REITs are professionally managed and rental income generated from assets are distributed back to unit Read More >
18th May 2018
The UK’s listed real estate sector was hard hit by the taper tantrums of 2015. It tried to recover but any hope of a return to the bull market conditions which prevailed from the lows of 2009 were snuffed out by Brexit. The sector hasn’t been Read More >
19th January 2018
Real estate debt funding globally is a huge machine – turning over $400bn annually in the US, and approximately €225bn in Europe, of which the UK makes up roughly 25-30%. The European figure, however, is a very broad estimate because at any Read More >
26th September 2017
UK lending teams reconvening after the summer this autumn and scrutinizing unspent budgets will be looking warily with their credit committees at the challenge of successful deployment in Q4.
Most debt investors would acknowledge that there is Read More >
26th September 2017
Much is being said and written about the lack of affordable housing in the UK. Since the trough in the first quarter of 2009 following the financial crisis, the average UK house price has risen by 40%. To buy a home in London, young first time Read More >
17th August 2017
The UK stock market has recovered from its spring snooze and despite worries over the effects of Brexit on UK growth the indices are but a stone’s throw from their all time highs. But this hides frenetic activity under the surface with Read More >
18th July 2017
Previously in this column we looked at what appeared to be the start of a new trend of M&A in the property sector, following the bids for Market Tech and Kennedy Wilson Europe. However, the trend has in fact not materialised.
It seems that Read More >
14th July 2017
In the last few weeks central bank watchers claim to have detected a new mood emerging from this summer’s gathering of the clan. A desire to follow the Fed down a path which leads to ‘normalisation’ of interest rates and the unwinding of QE Read More >
6th July 2017
It is almost a decade since the beginning of the end of the debt-driven property boom. Back then, British banks supplied 72% of the finance to the market, Germans and CMBS supplied most of the remainder, and little else could compete.
Anyone Read More >
22nd May 2017
Everyone knows that it is not possible to turn base metal into gold and yet there is often a degree of alchemy involved in finance. In the case of property, the alchemists would have us believe that if it were only possible to find the right Read More >
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