A few thoughts on coronavirus and the recent stock market crash
16th March 2020
Unless you are a hermit living in a very remote cave, I’m sure you’re aware of the coronavirus pandemic.
And if you have any interest in investing, then you also probably know that stock markets around the globe have suffered what can Read More >
The Green Line: Gravity – suspended until further notice
20th February 2020
What on earth is going on?
MSCI developed markets growth versus value
Source: Minack Advisors †Ratio of growth/value one year ahead forecast EPS *Growth/value indices for MSCI developed markets
Gravity is a universal constant. But Read More >
The Aga Khan and Lisbon’s fabulous property market
13th February 2020
Lisbon, Portugal’s capital, is the best performing property market in Western Europe, a magnet for investors from the EU and 8,000 plus non-EU citizens who have taken advantage of the minority Socialist government’s “golden visa” program Read More >
The diary of an alternative assets dealer
21st January 2020
The looming crisis in list stocks and bonds is driving interest in alternatives – but their inherent illiquidity can defeat risk managers’ comprehension
Alternatives is becoming a busy market. It would appear the global asset allocation Read More >
Has We killed the unicorns?
3rd January 2020
WeWork’s ill-fated IPO is the tip of an iceberg
WeWork revenue and operating losses and 'valuation' (US$)
Riddle me this. We eat $229,000 every hour, every day, year after year. We are in nearly 500 places at the same time. We lose a Read More >
Grow rich slowly with REITs: collecting and compounding in an uncertain world
2nd January 2020
Long-term property returns derive from income and its compounding potential – that’s precisely what REITs were created to deliver
During the first half of 2007, Apple launched its first iPhone and the UK government introduced the REIT Read More >
Is it too late to invest in UK housebuilders?
20th December 2019
As a group, UK housebuilders have produced astonishingly good financial results over the last decade.
This has given their shareholders equally astonishing returns, with average share price gains from the largest housebuilders at close to Read More >
The great mistake – QE and austerity
19th December 2019
Pumping cash into the economy was meant to make us all better oﬀ. Instead the money got locked into stocks and bonds to enrich the wealthy, while austerity made everyone else poorer
The editor of this esteemed publication recently asked me Read More >
Can anything wobble this market?
17th December 2019
The markets go from strength to strength as the real world around them struggles to stay standing – surely this can’t last?
There’s a childhood game, whose name changes each generation – currently called Jenga. It starts as a wall of Read More >
UK regional cities are a good investment bet
10th December 2019
With Brexit uncertainty hitting London hardest and high-grade office supply tight in the capital, investors are looking to other UK cities
Brexit and now the general election have been driving the current state of uncertainty in the UK Read More >
The Green Line: How Corporate America stole its own future
21st November 2019
US Companies are paying shareholders more than they can afford
Dividends and buybacks have exceeded free cash flow levels since 2013
Source: Capital Group. Universe is made up of 2,902 non-financial US-based companies that represent Read More >
The Restaurant Group: Weak profitability, long leases and high debts
8th November 2019
The Restaurant Group (which I’ll shorten to TRG) joined the model portfolio in early 2016, shortly after the company published some very upbeat 2015 results.
Revenues were up 8% while earnings and dividends per share were up 13%, continuing Read More >
Consilia Capital Real Assets Funds Report Q3 2019
29th October 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:A summary of Fund performanc
A summary of Fund performance
The table below shows the average Q3 2019, YTD 2019, 3 and 5 year returns for the mandates in our database. As can be Read More >
Make way for Generation Z
29th October 2019
They’ll soon be two-fifths of consumers, so financial advisers must learn to see the world their way
In today’s world things change fast, and it can be hard to keep up with new trends and the opportunities they bring, especially in the Read More >
The Blue Banana of Sensible Expansion
21st October 2019
Bavarian logistics property company VIB Vermoegen is using an admirable combination of trusted partnering and smart geographical thinking
I want to talk here about a blue banana, but so as not to confuse you, let me explain first that this is Read More >
Beware of long-term value drivers
15th October 2019
Property investors have an unfortunate habit of not looking very far ahead
The real estate sector has a propensity to underestimate change, perhaps because change has historically been at a rather glacial rate within the industry. In my 30 Read More >
Lessons from the fall of a superstar fund manager
10th October 2019
I’m sure you will know that well-known fund manager Neil Woodford has recently fallen very much out of favour with investors. Reputedly in the wake of withdrawals by some big investors said to be worried by poor performance, he even suspended Read More >
Investment Management Review – October 2019
8th October 2019
There’s a childhood game, whose name changes each generation – currently called Jenga. It starts as a wall of wooden bricks, and successive players remove individual pieces until the loser takes one out, and down falls the edifice. Its drama Read More >
The demise of retail is reshaping the REIT sector
3rd October 2019
REITs are becoming what they always should have been: low-leveraged balance sheets and long-term income streams with a sustainable, growing dividend
Three features stand out for me in the quoted property sector this year. First, the Read More >
Mad for growth
23rd September 2019
Investors chasing growth stocks creates both danger and opportunities
PE premium for UK growth stocks over UK value
Stock market manias always start with some grounding in solid fact, before investors get carried away and drive up Read More >
Global capital flows into real estate: transparency is a key to inward investment
20th September 2019
Cross-border transactions now account for a third of property deals, and the most transparent markets hold the most appeal
Investment in many mature real estate markets is booming and this has been the case for about ten years now. At the Read More >
Still going strong: Singapore REITs
29th August 2019
A continuing upward trend makes this a good defensive asset class amid global uncertainty
Early this summer the FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts index broke through the 875 level after 10 years of resistance, with a Read More >
How the debt markets have changed since 2014
31st July 2019
A five-year review of the real estate debt demand
Twenty-nineteen marks five years since Laxfield Capital, a commercial property lending company, released their first report on the demand for debt in the UK property market. Such a report, Read More >
The big four – REIT dangers to watch out for
24th July 2019
Common difficulties and how to avoid them
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are a favourite asset class for income seeking investors looking for regular dividends. However, there are a number of difficulties regularly experienced by Read More >
Is the FTSE 100 attractively priced despite its near-record level?
11th July 2019
Above-average returns seem likely for the FTSE 100
Over the last 25 years or so, the FTSE 100 has repeatedly zig-zagged between 3500 and 7000, swinging back and forth between bull market and bear market.
As I write, the UK large-cap index Read More >
Ruffer Investment Review – July
9th July 2019
When the Governor of the Bank of England speaks, it is always worth listening to, and he is on to something when he writes about market liquidity; he is surely right to flag the dangers of the narrow exit doors in a crowded investment room. We Read More >
The end of the UK interest rate cycle
25th June 2019
Plus, reassessing the relationship between UK interest rates and REITs
The perceived wisdom has always been that reducing, and indeed low, UK interest rates are good for real estate in general. Equally, UK real estate investment trusts Read More >
Can REITs keep up with the current demands of UK shopping centres?
21st June 2019
In the face of declining retail property values and highly leveraged companies, a new structure might be needed
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have been a huge success globally, providing an income-producing, liquid, tax-efficient Read More >
The multifaceted problem of wealth transfer
18th June 2019
Politics, emigration and the modern family are only a few of the challenges of wealth and succession planning today
There is no lack of data on the vast, and growing, amounts of wealth set to be passed from generation to generation in the Read More >
The Green Line: A 21st century fairy tale
17th June 2019
The percentage of unprofitable companies listing on public markets has never been higher.
Percentage of US IPOs which are loss-making
This is the year of the tech unicorn IPO. So far we have had Uber, Lyft, Beyond Meat and Pinterest; Read More >
Is Sainsbury’s worth its heavily discounted share price?
13th June 2019
Poor old Sainsbury’s. Its share price is currently lower than at any time over the last 25 years and appears to be in free-fall.
But how can this be? Surely Sainsbury’s is a defensive dividend payer with a long record of unbroken dividend Read More >
China’s Winning the War that the U.S. is Ignoring
6th June 2019
Have you been to The Bahamas?
I was just in beautiful Nassau. And there’s no description for those waters other than 'exquisite.'
In fact, it's hard to take your eyes off of the stunning array of blues and greens, while you breathe in Read More >
2 Preferred Possibilities That Might Be Worth a Look
29th May 2019
As you might very well know, real estate investment trusts, also known as REITs, are legally required to pay out no less than 90% of their taxable income. That’s how they’re structured to operate in the U.S., and they’re not allowed to Read More >
Taking Weyerhaeuser to the Woodshed
24th May 2019
By Brad Thomas and Michael Boyd
Sometimes, you’ve got to switch it up to keep your portfolio properly diversified. That’s why this isn’t the first time we’ve sung the praises of buying into alternative asset classes.
When people Read More >
Heads you win… tails you win?
22nd May 2019
UK long dated index-linked bond price
Image Source: Ruffer LLP and Bloomberg (UK 2055 index-linked bond)
We live in extraordinary times, and looking at recent political developments, both here and abroad, there is a risk that they Read More >
Betting on Retail
17th May 2019
A version of this article first appeared in the May 2019 edition of the Forbes Real Estate Investor.
Every May for the past 20 years, I’ve made a pilgrimage up to Las Vegas. I call it a pilgrimage because it’s a long flight with Read More >
The 2018 stock market correction and the art of being patient
8th May 2019
For most investors 2018 was a year to forget and from peak to trough, the FTSE All-Share index lost about 16% of its starting value.
For many this was too much to take and several subscribers informed me of their decision to exit the stock Read More >
Consilia Capital Real Assets Monitor – Quarterly Performance Review
23rd April 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:
1) A summary of Fund performance
The table below shows the average March 2019, Q1 2019 and 5 year returns for the mandates in our Read More >
Learn from my mistakes and avoid these three value traps
19th April 2019
Most investors found 2018 to be a bumpy ride and I was no exception.
The market price of my portfolio declined by more than 10% during the year, which was mildly annoying. But that’s not really what I’m talking about.
When I talk about Read More >
Rightmove’s shares could be good value if you don’t care about dividends
17th April 2019
Rightmove is an incredible business. In the 11 years since it listed on the stock exchange its:
Revenues have gone up by more than 370%, going from £57 million to £268 millionEarnings have gone up by more than 1100%, going from 1.4p per Read More >
SINGAPORE REITS #10
16th April 2019
Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)
The FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REITs Index) continued its bullish rally, raising from 832.03 to 842.91 (+1.31%) as compared to my last post on Singapore REIT Read More >
12th April 2019
‘Timing is everything’ runs the investment cliché – actually it’s not: being right is better. In any event, spare a thought for the writer of this investment review who has been told that it must be in final form by 27 March. Of all Read More >
Property’s broken crystal ball
1st April 2019
Real estate share prices have been implicitly forecasting property declines that are yet to materialise – what’s going on?
The most noticeable impact of the EU referendum in June 2016 upon the UK real estate sector has been the sharp Read More >
BAE Systems’ dividend yield is high, but is it good value?
27th March 2019
BAE Systems is an obvious choice for dividend investors.That's because:
(1) BAE Systems is the UK's largest defence manufacturer which should make it a relatively defensive company (governments may cut defence spending during Read More >
Safe as houses?
25th March 2019
Over almost 30 years UK house price gains have outperformed the best of British businesses. What next?
Index performance rebased to 100 in January 1990 %
What’s your biggest financial asset? For most Britons, it’s their Read More >
Why I am buying sterling, selling euros
21st March 2019
I might look very silly by the end of the month but there will not be a no deal Brexit. Neither side can afford this outcome. Sadly my crystal ball doesn’t run to how soft the Brexit will be, but what we do know is that a process of Read More >
SINGAPORE REITS #9
14th March 2019
The FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REITs Index) continued its bullish rally, raising from 832.03 to 842.91 (+1.31%) as compared to my last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Feb Read More >
March Madness: REIT Bracketology Begins
6th March 2019
Excerpts of this article appeared in the March 2019 edition of the Forbes Real Estate Investor.
March is one of my favorite months in the year, especially because that’s when the biggest college basketball tournament takes place, and Read More >
REITs & Recessions – A Historical Reminder
1st March 2019
As readers know, I’ve shown time and again how REITs are a great source of generous, safe, and growing income over time, and a favorite among high-yield investors – a group that includes those with low-risk tolerances such as retirees Read More >
The Green Line – February 2019
15th February 2019
Once a month we will bring you an interesting chart with a short commentary. Our aim is to illuminate the corners of financial markets.
Rising returns on cash may cause investors to withdraw from riskier assets such as Read More >
REIT VIEW: EUROPEAN REITS OUTLOOK A closer look at REITs in the European continent
29th January 2019
Having completed another satisfying, successful year as a U.S.-based REIT analyst, I found myself again curious and wanting a closer look at REITs in the European continent – which is geographically slightly larger than the U.S., but sports a Read More >
Ruffer Investment Review The purpose of this review is to present a balance between the acknowledgement that we have let people down in 2018, and to state that we are fully prepared for the battles ahead – which we are.
18th January 2019
“I thought you chaps at Ruffer said that you’d never lose money for me – what’s gone wrong?”
The weakness in markets reflects the passing of an inflexion point of mood: from a sensation that we’ve been living through extremely Read More >
Triple B or not triple B? That is the question… Growing risks in corporate debt markets spell big trouble – and big opportunities
18th January 2019
For income-hungry investors that have hoovered-up corporate debt in recent years, this really matters.
Call me nostalgic, but investment grade (IG) credit just isn’t what it used to be.
Theoretically, IG bonds and borrowers are highly Read More >
Consilia Capital Real Assets Monitor Annual Performance for 2018
10th January 2019
The report is divided into the following sections:
1) A summary of 2018 performance
The table below, shows the average 2018 performance per mandate, and is ranked by 2018 returns with 2017 and 2016 figures for comparison. Read More >
2019 STRATEGIES: WINNING WITH REITs & INFRASTRUCTURE Investors would be wise to recognize REITs’ valuable and defensive nature
7th January 2019
As we ended 2018, I noticed a quite compelling place that REITs serve in a well-balanced diversified portfolio. While Real Estate Investment Trusts (commonly referred to as REITs) tend to get attention due to their yields, investors would be wise Read More >
President Trump’s EO is yet another boost for the US economy Brad Thomas' view on the investment initiative designed to create new “opportunity zones”
1st January 2019
The American economy is booming thanks to President Trump’s pro-growth policies, and now the President can set his sights on ensuring that prosperity reaches every nook and cranny of the country.
In a move designed to help underperforming Read More >
Singapore REITs #6 The market update for December
28th December 2018
FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) has increased from 767.98 to 783.05 (+1.96%) compared to my last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on 5 November 2018.
Currently the index is trading in a Read More >
What The Trade War Means For REIT Investors A look at what could happen to REITs should current negotiations fail and the trade war escalate well into 2019
17th December 2018
The U.S. hasn’t seen a large and protracted trade war since the early 1930s, which coincided with the Great Depression. With the U.S./China trade war escalating through most of 2018 it has been a confusing and scary time for all investors. Read More >
Peering REIT into the Future A look at five technology REIT favourites and where they could be heading
3rd December 2018
Last week, in these pages, I talked about what I’ve discovered over several decades in Real Estate. Not only these days as a U.S.-based writer, covering Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), but also in my time as a developer, investor, and Read More >
Singapore REITs #5 The market update for November
27th November 2018
The Singapore REIT sector has broken down from a consolidation pattern and starts a down trend. Let’s look at the technical analysis and fundamental analysis for the Singapore REIT sector in this month’s update.
Technical Analysis of FTSE Read More >
Lessons From A Battle-Tested REIT Analyst Reflections on the dark days of the financial crisis
26th November 2018
In 2009, prior to becoming a REIT analyst, I was a real estate developer. This means that I was working in the trenches trying to develop sites for companies like CVS, Dollar General and Advance Auto Parts. It wasn’t easy to grasp the impact of Read More >
Demand For Data Fuelling Communications-Based REITs Where automated-driving technology might be taking us
15th November 2018
Recently I was reading an article by LBX Investments explaining that “autonomous vehicles are expected to eventually have a transformative impact on our economy, our society, and numerous industries, including commercial real estate and by Read More >
REIT Investing Around The Globe A look at British Land Company, one of UK’s oldest property groups
9th November 2018
In a recent interview with NAREIT Scott Crowe said that “year-to-date the global real estate market has been relatively flat; however Europe has been relatively strong”. He explained that “in Europe, for the moment at least, the European Read More >
12 of the Greatest Moat-Worthy REITs An analysis of what gives some REITs a competitive advantage
1st November 2018
For today’s look into REITs, we’ll uncover the meaning and benefit of a “moat” surrounding a given investment. I’ll also offer my list of the 12 most “moat-worthy” REITs.
Let’s start upstream.
In a Harvard Review article, Read More >
A REIT way to invest Competitive advantage in the REIT market
18th October 2018
As a committed, passionate, and experienced REIT analyst, part of my steadfast research includes observing principles I can rely on time after time, to deliver alpha and deliver results - and then, share my findings. That’s part of why I Read More >
Retire Rich With These 5 Highly Predictable REITs Picking attractive dividend-paying stocks on sale
12th October 2018
Retirement satisfaction is positively correlated with income, net worth, health, and stable income streams.
Reports state that investors, who record the lowest levels of worry, don’t have the highest income prior to retirement. However, Read More >
Understanding REITs: The DAVOS Way DAVOS as an acronym helps me narrow down the world of REITs into an index, to make a point.
4th October 2018
Just over a thousand kilometers southeast of London sit the mountainous, chilled vistas of Davos, Switzerland. And while I’ve never skied there, I’ve enjoyed invitations to the major economic gatherings in that beautiful, small, yet Read More >
Singapore REITs #4 A market update
3rd October 2018
So far, in my previous articles, I have introduced the 3 most important financial ratios for analysing and shortlisting REITs, and also the FTSE ST REIT index to gauge the Singapore REITs market sentiment. Moving forward, I will give an overall Read More >
Consilia Capital Real Assets Fund Monitor Listed RE Pension Fund Performance
1st October 2018
This monthly report from Consilia Capital on fund performance looks at a number of different topics.
August performance - which strategies performed best?
Global real estate securities funds returns August 2018
Source: Consilia Read More >
Thinking Like An Intelligent REIT Investor Is the thrill of victory worth the agony of defeat?
26th September 2018
In 2016, my co-author and I decided to publish a book called The Intelligent REIT Investor. The book was published just in time, as U.S. REITs were elevated to a new real estate sector in the closely watched Global Industry Classification Read More >
Trump Tariffs and REITs The Art Of The Chinese Tariff Deal
20th September 2018
President Trump announced new tariffs this week on around $200 billion in Chinese goods, and Mr. Market just shrugged it off, as The Art of The Deal was old news.
In fact, tough negotiation was a common thread running through President Read More >
All change in UK REIT Land In the last 25 years, the US has moved from under parity to be 11 times the size of the UK market
7th September 2018
Returning recently from the EPRA (European Public Real Estate Association) conference in Berlin I was struck by the accelerating pace of change that is now (finally) underway within the UK REIT sector. A sector, it is fair to say, that has not Read More >
Singapore REITs #3 The three most important financial ratios when analysing and shortlisting REITs
6th September 2018
In this article I will share the three most important financial ratios when analysing and shortlisting REITs. I call them the three musketeers of REITs. The 1st musketeer’s name is Yield, he gives you money; the 2nd musketeer’s name is Read More >
Debt Funds – The Balance of Benefits A balanced view of this market shift and how risks and benefits are shared.
6th September 2018
Raising capital for real estate funds has been tougher over the past two years – declining to $124bn in 2017 from $128bn in 2016 and $137bn in 2016 and 2015. By contrast, however, real estate debt managers are seeing allocations increase. In Read More >
Report on Real Estate Fund performance for July 2018 Consilia Capital Real Assets Funds Monitor - Focus: 10 years on from Lehmans
22nd August 2018
Most retail (i.e. non-institutional) investors tend to hold their real estate allocation through a collective investment vehicle, or fund. For listed real estate Read More >
U.S. REITS AT A GLANCE: THE RIGHT RISKS WITH BLUE-CHIPS Being realistic about your ability and readiness to stomach big swings in the value of your investments
21st August 2018
First, let me offer up my thanks. It’s been over a week since my introductory article appeared here, and I’ve been hearing the response was very good. I’m so grateful. Thank you.
This week I want to touch on “risk” … when Read More >
U.S. REITS At A Glance: From REIT to Shining REIT The world of U.S. Real Estate investing
13th August 2018
Please allow me to skip a fuller introduction of myself - time is short, your time valuable, and article word counts understandably limited.
First, thank you for including me in The Property Chronicle. I am honored and humbled to share my Read More >
Singapore REITs #2 On top of individual REITs counters, retail investors also need to be aware of the Overall Market Sentiment by looking at the Singapore REITs Index
8th August 2018
In my last article for The Property Chronicle, I gave an overview on:
The definition REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust)
The reasons to invest in REITs as an alternative to physical real estate investment
The Benefit and drawback on Read More >
Singapore REITs – Why, which and when? Why you should include REITs in your current property portfolio
18th July 2018
What are REITs?
REITs are collective investment schemes that invest in a portfolio of income generating real estate assets. The assets of REITs are professionally managed and rental income generated from assets are distributed back to unit Read More >
Listed Real Estate is in remarkably good health The UK economy is either growing or capable of pumping out reliable income streams
18th May 2018
The UK’s listed real estate sector was hard hit by the taper tantrums of 2015. It tried to recover but any hope of a return to the bull market conditions which prevailed from the lows of 2009 were snuffed out by Brexit. The sector hasn’t been Read More >
A slow dance towards transparency Is the real estate debt funding industry ready to change?
19th January 2018
Real estate debt funding globally is a huge machine – turning over $400bn annually in the US, and approximately €225bn in Europe, of which the UK makes up roughly 25-30%. The European figure, however, is a very broad estimate because at any Read More >
“No, what I meant was…” Interpreting fund manager euphemisms
27th October 2017
Given time, most industries develop a jargon which allows participants to exude a professional glow and some degree of intellectual superiority when addressing outsiders (especially when poised to charge for their services). This is notably true Read More >
Underwriting to the downside… Why current debt market conditions are both a difficulty and an opportunity
26th September 2017
UK lending teams reconvening after the summer this autumn and scrutinizing unspent budgets will be looking warily with their credit committees at the challenge of successful deployment in Q4.
Most debt investors would acknowledge that there is Read More >
How can REITs reduce their discounts in the absence of M&A activity? M&A is not coming to the rescue of investors just yet, but there are new trends beginning in the listed REIT sector
18th July 2017
Previously in this column we looked at what appeared to be the start of a new trend of M&A in the property sector, following the bids for Market Tech and Kennedy Wilson Europe. However, the trend has in fact not materialised.
It seems that Read More >
Premium income or discounted ‘growth’? The latest on the real estate investment trusts
14th July 2017
In the last few weeks central bank watchers claim to have detected a new mood emerging from this summer’s gathering of the clan. A desire to follow the Fed down a path which leads to ‘normalisation’ of interest rates and the unwinding of QE Read More >
Mind the bank-shaped gap Our debt markets expert Emma Huepfl considers the latest trends in transacted lending
6th July 2017
It is almost a decade since the beginning of the end of the debt-driven property boom. Back then, British banks supplied 72% of the finance to the market, Germans and CMBS supplied most of the remainder, and little else could compete.
Anyone Read More >
Whither the open-ended funds? Adrian Elwood discusses alchemy in finance and the illusion of liquidity
22nd May 2017
Everyone knows that it is not possible to turn base metal into gold and yet there is often a degree of alchemy involved in finance. In the case of property, the alchemists would have us believe that if it were only possible to find the right Read More >