Investor’s Notebook
The latest thoughts from the buy side of real estate investment
Latest Article
12th August 2020
Everyone loves an underdog. Most certainly so when it’s wrapped up with extraordinary financial returns, scary new technologies like Bitcoin, and an establishment villain that everyone despises.
In Bitcoin Billionaires: A True Story of Genius, Betrayal and Redemption, the best-selling author Ben Mezrich attempts all of that. A look at Mezrich’s dozens of books reveals an obsession with drama, a flair for eccentricity, and a large portion of the unbelievable.
Most people know him... Read More >
Recent Articles:
27th July 2020
From the beginning of this virus, political elites have used the language of war. The invisible enemy would be contained, suppressed, and beaten into submission. Then….it would go away.
The tactics would be travel bans, shutdowns, Read More >
22nd July 2020
The coronavirus economic shock has already caused UK house prices to wobble – and they may yet tumble if the narrative worsens. As the virus changes society and the way we live, it will inevitably change the factors that drive the demand and Read More >
20th July 2020
THE IMPACT of the coronavirus crisis on London is becoming clear to see. Yesterday the Evening Standard laid bare the scale of the economic devastation to the British capital. Let’s take the headline numbers: “50,000 West End Read More >
20th July 2020
ARTICLE ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 2018
In my last article I set out my company’s broad approach to investing in commercial property and in Poland in particular. I thought it might be interesting for anyone considering investing in Poland Read More >
14th July 2020
If food waste were a country, it would be the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (8% of annual global greenhouse gases come from food waste).1
One-third of all food produced globally is wasted, representing a total value of about Read More >
10th July 2020
Social distancing has turned our lives upside down and at short notice businesses adapted to remote working, moving office life into the home.
Some are beginning to speculate that this could spell the end of offices, but many people are still Read More >
8th July 2020
Even for the most absentminded amongst us (myself included), life offers unforgettable moments. Some are historically and globally impactful: Neil Armstrong’s ‘giant leap’, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, or the COVID-19 pandemic we Read More >
7th July 2020
Last month WeWork surveyed the heads of real estate from 69 global corporations asking how they envisioned the world of work in this new COVID-19 age. Three themes emerged:
+ Acceleration of how flex space might be Read More >
25th June 2020
With a desire to both quantify and limit various aspects of private real estate funds’ risk, funds’ documentation is written so that risk is unbundled and limited. Examples of this would be using “up to 60% leverage”, “up to Read More >
24th June 2020
ARTICLE ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 25TH SEPTEMBER 2017
Shipping carries over 90% of world trade. Until anti-gravity transport is invented nothing will replace it. This island race has salt water and shipping in our veins and history. As befits our Read More >
23rd June 2020
ARTICLE ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 22ND SEPTEMBER 2017
I started my real estate career in the early 1980s, so over 30 years ago! I have been involved in many areas of UK real estate during that period, both cosseted in booms and fighting for survival Read More >
10th June 2020
One of the first things that we learn in life is the alphabet. Through it, we form words and are able to communicate with one another using a common language. In investing, it would be useful if one of the first things that Read More >
28th May 2020
Real estate is the embodiment of the tangible. Its substance gives us a sense of security and durability, and this applies to both private residential and commercial real estate. Yet the real estate industry is ultimately based on services – Read More >
6th May 2020
Originally published February 2018.
The UAE's appetite for attracting the great and the good (and sometimes the bad and the ugly) remains impressive. This week, Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, hosted the first Milken Read More >
4th May 2020
Poland’s commercial real estate sector has just recorded what some reporters are calling it's "best-ever" first-quarter, which is quite something to achieve over the precise period in which the world was waking up to the horrors of Read More >
16th April 2020
Having recently completed proptech investments in Unissu and Dashflow, I was interested to read Andy Saull’s article, “Proptech disruption won’t hit any time soon”, in the last issue of Property Chronicle. It introduced me to the Read More >
8th April 2020
Since the financial crisis in 2008, interest rates have been low and borrowing costs for commercial property similarly low. With such low rates, relatively high yields and seemingly ever-increasing values, many have chosen to use Read More >
27th March 2020
What do investors want right now? What are their preferred opportunities, and what do you need to know about them? This series sums up what one investment adviser has gathered from roadshows, conferences and meetings across Europe.
Heard in Read More >
23rd March 2020
Awards are show business, mining a deep human need or peer approval. Formed and shaped for profit by producers. Staged and fronted by directors nurturing sector nabobs. Marketed and sold with ‘your rivals are on board’ whispers to sponsors. Read More >
20th February 2020
The new decade that was ushered in by the usual dazzling Burj Khalifa fireworks provoked some reflection on my part, for it was 10 years ago this year that I made the move to the Gulf.
Back then it was a leap into the unknown, where Read More >
27th January 2020
A famous quotation, probably erroneously dedicated to the financier J. P. Morgan, is that, when asked for an outlook on the stock market, he replied, “it will fluctuate”. The real estate market tends to fluctuate too, between two Read More >
23rd January 2020
To stop small clubs going under requires not extra cash but an independent body charged with developing the game as a whole
After death throes worthy of a B-movie murder scene and with a parliamentary committee picking over the bones and Read More >
22nd January 2020
What do investors want right now? Which are their preferred opportunities, and what do you need to know about them? This new series sums up what one investment adviser has gathered from roadshows, conferences and meetings across Europe
Heard Read More >
13th January 2020
Investment pouring in from the south hasn’t yet brought down northern England’s higher yields.
It has been widely reported for several years now that rental yields are typically higher in the north of England than they are in the Read More >
13th December 2019
Watch share prices, brace for a bang.
“If something is true, no amount of wishful thinking will change it. - Richard Dawkins
Real estate currently beats any but the riskiest investment classes – doesn’t it? Provided interest rates Read More >
11th November 2019
The new PM shares his 19th-century predecessor’s charm, but on statesmanship skills it’s another matter
Our new prime minister is said to be an admirer of Winston Churchill, but a better model for Boris Johnson would be Lord Read More >
4th November 2019
Should letting agents be worried about the impact of new legislation?
The Tenant Fees Act 2019 or, as it’s more often referred to, the tenant fee ban, is a piece of legislation that came into effect on 1 June 2019 and basically prohibits Read More >
11th October 2019
It is exactly 20 years ago that Prologis stormed into Europe and transformed the landscape of property funds, announcing it had raised $1.07bn of equity for its first European fund. This was a game-changer for the European markets, and not just Read More >
2nd August 2019
Farming in the UK is changing faster than anyone realises. There will be winners – and losers…
The UK farming industry is facing a period of radical change that most farmers are underestimating both in extent and speed. There will be Read More >
23rd July 2019
With the PSOE coming out on top, Spanish prospects are only looking up
Pedro Sanchez’ gamble to call a snap election has paid off. His PSOE (the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party) has become the biggest party in parliament, with its share Read More >
16th July 2019
How forging a new path in the property market can reap big rewards
I have several guidelines to which I have mostly adhered when investing. Amongst others, this includes targeting high yielding properties: properties with sustainable income Read More >
12th June 2019
Back in 2007, left behind by the likes of the US, the UK and (shock horror!) France, the German government moved with its customary celerity to create its own REIT sector. A year before, and two years after Emmanuel Valavanis and I had set up Read More >
7th June 2019
In the following monthly series of articles Oliver Ash tells the story of his initial steps in the field of real estate, how this took him overseas to a new life, how he navigated the financial crises of 1991 and 2009, how real estate operations Read More >
31st May 2019
With the bull market scaling new heights and global growth re-accelerating, I explained last month why this situation is likely to continue (see Why The Bulls Are Back In Charge). But I noted at the end of that paper that, as Read More >
30th May 2019
Waves of political and economic uncertainty have become something of a norm for markets in recent years. Against a backdrop of significant events – from US-China trade tension to Brexit - investors are taking extra caution with their asset Read More >
29th April 2019
How to earn double-digit returns from Polish property
As readers of my articles might recall we have, for many years, been earning double-digit returns from our property investments in Poland. There are many factors which have contributed to Read More >
11th April 2019
How the peaceful Gulf state became one of the dominant economies in the world in under half a century
Here in the United Arab Emirates 2018 was the Year of Zayed, 12 months of commemoration to celebrate a century since the birth of the Read More >
21st March 2019
In 2012, one of the first companies I invested in as a defensive value investor was Centrica, the company behind British Gas.
It seemed like a good idea at the time. Centrica was a leading player in the defensive utilities sector, with a Read More >
1st March 2019
The MSCI All Country World Index is up some 250% since the financial crisis. But was there ever a cycle in which investors were more skeptical about the market’s upward momentum, where stock valuations had to climb so many “walls of Read More >
8th February 2019
Why was our “Solving for 2019” audience less worried about recession but more cautious on equities?
At our flagship annual conference for the EMEA region, “Solving for 2019,” it is now tradition for my colleague Joe Amato to ask the Read More >
21st January 2019
If there is one useful conclusion for investors from the crazy year that has just ended, maybe it is this: as they say in Hollywood, “Nobody knows anything.” After all, if the richest and best-informed studio moguls spend tens of millions of Read More >
17th January 2019
Macro: A Soft Landing
1. A Soft Landing for the U.S. and the Wider World
We anticipate that U.S. GDP growth will slow from 3.5% to around 2.0 – 2.5% in 2019, and some of the tail risks associated with the U.S. – China trade dispute will Read More >
9th January 2019
- Global Real Estate Sector robust in 2018
- Fed policy will drive equity markets in 2019, including Real Estate
- UK performance hit by Brexit and structural change in UK Retail
The Global Real Estate Sector showed a Total Return in Read More >
4th January 2019
There were plenty of headwinds facing the property sector in 2018, with Brexit and broader geopolitical turmoil causing investors to pause for breath. Whilst buying decisions have in some cases been put on hold, commercial and residential real Read More >
21st December 2018
Across Asia Pacific, conversations surrounding flexible space are typically one-sided and largely concentrate on co-working.
Given the current stage of development in this region, it is somewhat understandable that discussions on flexible Read More >
Bucking the trend in bricks and mortar retail An expert view of retail in Central and Eastern Europe
21st November 2018
The health of bricks and mortar retail, and the resulting impact on retail property owners, have rarely been out of the news in 2018. In many western markets the pace of structural decline in retail has accelerated, and this has brought enormous Read More >
8th September 2018
Perhaps the long hot summer in continental Europe is not the most prudent time to review how fast transactions take to conclude. However, with the benefit of over 30 years of experience in Europe I am convinced the average time from the start of Read More >
24th August 2018
The Global Real Estate Sector has shown a Total Return of +7% YTD for a Sterling investor, compared to -1% for UK Real Estate Sector, or +2% for the FTSE All Share. The major contributor at the time of writing has been the US Real Estate Sector Read More >
8th August 2018
Fitting in as a fifty-something in a country so diametrically different from one’s own is no easy thing. Apart from the obvious; you know, driving on the wrong side of the road, cars having no indicators (at least seemingly so), magnets fitted Read More >
3rd August 2018
Ten years ago, I had just extricated myself from almost a decade as a tax lawyer in the City, mostly advising on structured real estate finance deals, and started work as finance policy director at the British Property Federation. The next Read More >
2nd August 2018
A global economic crisis, rising regional political tensions, and a dismal outlook to the macro economic stance all make for an exceptionally tumultuous atmosphere to navigate through. Nevertheless, the United Arab Emirates led by its Read More >
28th June 2018
Since the peak of the property cycle in 2007, First Property Group plc has grown its net asset value at an annualised rate of some 25% per annum and either maintained or increased its dividend payouts each year. Most property companies either Read More >
5th June 2018
The UK results season for the March year ends has not generated much investor interest - to the extent a frustrated senior equity fund manager confronted me as I walked past Mortons demanding 'where are the Emerging Majors?!' He was referring to Read More >
29th May 2018
If your perception of business in the Middle East is one of men in sunglasses discussing arms deals and oil trades, then you’d be wrong. Well, that’s not to say this doesn’t go on, but a visit to Dubai, and in particular DIFC, the vibrant Read More >
3rd May 2018
My company, First Property Group plc, is an active investor in Poland, having commenced our operations there shortly after it joined the EU in 2004. Not many investors have successfully navigated the Polish property investment proposition. In a Read More >
25th April 2018
In 1986, a well-known African-American economist travelled to South Africa for a conference on the role of business in helping to overcome racial divisions in that country. Three years later, Professor Walter E. Williams of George Mason Read More >
19th April 2018
I have been active in the European real estate markets for over 30 years with a focus on the more liquid north-western countries. I have worked for agencies (Knight Frank and CBRE), an accountancy practice (Touche Ross & Co) and investment Read More >
14th April 2018
As Sydney Harbour fills up with the tears of lachrymose cricketers, transgressors of a law of the game, rather than of the land, one can’t help but think how hysterical the response has been, and ask why. How does the game of cricket, (cricket Read More >
28th March 2018
Comparing returns, and risk, for debt markets across Europe has historically been nigh-on impossible due to a lack of data. But new research from CBRE will help existing and new lenders determine strategy from a position of greater understanding. Read More >
13th March 2018
In January I highlighted the underperformance of the North America listed Real Estate Sector in 2017 but that it still didn’t offer great value – however with interest rates set to move higher in 2018 I looked forward to some interesting Read More >
12th March 2018
I've recently been involved in a few subletting transactions relating to offices in London. These transactions were time-critical, but very time-consuming, and the pain of securing superior landlord consent for the subletting at times made me Read More >
8th March 2018
“No, Your Highness, you’re NOT allowed any more pudding! And while we’re at it, why haven’t you finished your prep?!”
Not words you’d imagine many royal or senior Arabs to hear very often, as another tray of baklava arrives to Read More >
1st March 2018
Nominally at least, both Ghana and Nigeria are in the midst of an economic uptick. The latter is forecast to grow at 2% per annum this year as against 0.6% in 2017 and -1.6% the year before (its first recession in a quarter century). Ghana Read More >
23rd February 2018
I have, for the last 18 years, had the pleasure of running First Property Group plc, a small listed property company with a market value of £52 million, which I founded and which invests in the UK, Poland and to a small extent in Romania. My Read More >
16th February 2018
I have been active in the European real estate markets for over 30 years with a focus on the more liquid north-western countries. I have worked for agencies (Knight Frank and CBRE), an accountancy practice (Touche Ross) and investment banks Read More >
9th January 2018
The global listed real estate sector
In 2017 the FTSE EPRA NAREIT Global Index showed a total return of 5% for a sterling investor, although currencies were again a big factor (e.g. for a US$ investor the global total return was a healthy Read More >
3rd January 2018
The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) region has historically been a source of capital raising and outflow of funds that invested in everything global. Sovereign wealth institutions in the region are among the wealthiest in the world, and the Read More >
14th December 2017
Since 2013 I have been Bursar and a Fellow of Corpus Christi College, part of Cambridge University. Before that I spent 26 years in finance, predominantly in equity capital markets at Citigroup (where I led the ECM business for Europe, Middle Read More >
13th December 2017
12 December marks Kenya’s 54th year of independence. It is also the day on which opposition leader Raila Odinga intends to hold his own inauguration as the ‘People’s President’, rival to re-elected President Uhuru Kenyatta. Without naming Read More >
28th November 2017
President Robert Mugabe announced his resignation on Tuesday 14 November after 37 years in power, the last three of which included the dismissal of vice-presidents and ruling party stalwarts: Joice Mujuru in 2014 and most recently, Emmerson Read More >
Retirement living – the next crisis and opportunity What is the future for this major growth market?
20th November 2017
A key priority for government is to build new homes, particularly social housing, but the demographics point to another major shortfall over the next 20 years. According to McCarthy & Stone (MCS), the retirement living sector leader, of the Read More >
6th November 2017
From Abu Dhabi to the world: this is the motto of Etihad Airways, the UAE national carrier. This rings true on many fronts as Abu Dhabi has been aspiring to be the Middle East and regional hub for everything from regulated financial services Read More >
17th October 2017
Ironically, being a Muslim woman sitting in the backseat of a male driven Uber, in London, I was tickled to hear the radio announcement that HRH King Salman had finally decided to lift the moratorium for females to get behind the wheel. As with Read More >
27th September 2017
As I read the billion dollar bids for land in Singapore and new launches of private apartments selling out in three days, I began to wonder whether the government has expanded the retail-driven Great Singapore Sale to the residential property Read More >
26th September 2017
Much is being said and written about the lack of affordable housing in the UK. Since the trough in the first quarter of 2009 following the financial crisis, the average UK house price has risen by 40%. To buy a home in London, young first time Read More >
18th September 2017
Crisis? What crisis?!
Results from the listed home builders this summer describe a sector in rude health, particularly in the mid-market house price range of 250k-350k. Redrow for example reported sales up 21%, PTP up 26%, EPS up 27%, DPS up Read More >
14th August 2017
Continental carry trade
The big takeaway from the interim results season is the recovery in continental property markets. It’s been a decade since the listed sector in Europe signalled such a positive outlook in spite of some mixed Read More >
4th August 2017
Stock markets in India have been soaring as the economy enters a prolonged period of political and economic stability. At elevated valuations, near term returns seem uncertain but investors should focus on riding the megatrends.
India’s per Read More >
3rd July 2017
Halfway through 2017 the global listed sector is performing better than I had expected, up over 7% Total Return in USD terms, although much of this is down to dollar weakness with the sector up just 2% in sterling and flat in euros. But the big Read More >
27th June 2017
Above: a view of Yangon CBD, March 2012
Real estate is the ultimate wealth creating machine. I have had the privilege of covering real estate markets from the perspective of a valuer, a policy-maker, an equity analyst, a real estate fund Read More >
12th June 2017
Two months ago the view from Berkeley Square was cautious, particularly on Brexit and retail, but one could see 'clear blue water' (even if bitter tasting!). After a disastrous Tory manifesto and even worse campaign, the waters are muddied and in Read More >
19th May 2017
Chaos in Washington and dollar weakness, combined with the Macron win, has had a major impact on markets. For a sterling investor, the global real estate sector is flat YTD, but the Americas is down 6% compared to Europe up over 8% including Read More >
24th April 2017
Well, if 'a week is a long time in politics' (and even longer in UK politics!), it’s also a long time for the listed global real estate sector. Ironically as a property developer moved into the White House last autumn, the sector badly Read More >
17th April 2017
The West End has been a joy to drive around this Easter as half of London (and most of the property industry) has been away! As well as being able to secure reservations in some fine restaurants, it has also provided some time to reflect…
On Read More >
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