2017 has been a wonderful year for major emerging markets, thanks to a 7% fall in the US Dollar Index, no hard landing in China, the end of recessions in Brazil and Russia, falls in inflation that enabled central bank easing and stimulated domestic demand, even a significant rise in crude oil and industrial metals. Like Sherlock Holmes’s dog that did not bark, the worst case geopolitical scenarios priced into emerging markets did not happen. Donald Trump did not order a preemptive strike on North Korea, despite Little Rocket Man’s nuclear/missile threats. The new American president also did not initiate a trade war with China and Mexico. Saudi Arabia and Russia stabilised the global oil market. India’s BJP successfully passed several structural economic and political reforms.
The end of easy money Why emerging markets will pay a high price
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