Goldmines and landmines in the property market – The Property Chronicle
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Goldmines and landmines in the property market My latest thoughts on global property investment

The Macro View

High rise building with balconies

I am often asked by investors to articulate my ‘philosophy’ of real estate investing. Tough question. My ideal deal is one where it is possible to buy brick and mortar assets at 60–70% of replacement cost. This usually occurs in the aftermath of a banking crisis or economic shock. This was the case in Florida homes in 2009 or Spanish office space in 2010. Another strategy is to ‘buy, fix and sell’. This was my rationale for East Kent homes as a proxy for King’s Cross, the biggest retail and office development complex in Britain since Canary Wharf and the Docklands in the Thatcher era. Now that towns like Ashford and Folkestone are linked to Kings Cross St. Pancreas by high speed link, rents will rise, bank mortgages will rise, commuter traffic and capital values will rise in East Kent.

I believe the private and public property markets are rarely perfectly correlated, offering exceptional, if rare, opportunities for arbitrage in debt instruments or securitised property. Anybody who des not have a diversified portfolio of real estate investment trusts (REITs) is denying themselves the potential to make money in some of the world’s hottest real estate sectors and themes, easily accessed via an interactive brokers or e-Trade electronic brokerage account. For instance, I had profiled Prologis as the ideal New York REIT to benefit from the industrial boom. Prologis was up 28% in 2017. As I assure my parents, both avid property investors, if you think Wharton is expensive, try ignorance! The US desperately needs to build at least 50 million square feet of extra industrial space every year, thanks to the Amazonisation of the world. Even the US Air Force is leasing its vast spaces in Nevada to build mega 1 million square feet distribution and logistics centres. This is a 20% per annum growth opportunity for at least the next three years. Timing and the right entry price are everything in real estate investing, as is real time market intelligence. I avoid brokers and mortgage bankers like the plague, just as I do Third World guys who offer to sell me a BMW 7 series for 50,000 dirhams, quick quick Sahib!

As a partner in Asas Capital, I am proud to have raised the equity capital for a 630 room Park Regis four star hotel that will provide some of the Gulf’s most intelligent (they trusted me and their trust is sacred) investors a 15% cash dividend in US dollars and a potential 200% return on initial capital on the project’s eventual flotation or trade sale. Saudi Arabia wants 5 million extra Umra pilgrims by 2020 but Makkah has barely 12,000 branded four star hotel rooms. This was the macro opportunity of a lifetime and my partners at Asas Capital began work on this project in 2014, when oil was $114 and religious tourism assets dirt cheap.

I absolutely abhor speculative real estate investments or ‘buy to let’ in markets where a developer can arbitrarily raise service fees at will even when rents fall 20–30%. So an AED 2.5 million, 1000 square foot one-bedroom flat rents in the Burj Khalifa for AED 120,000 but service fees are AED 72,000. A 2% net rental yield makes no sense as if I wanted a bank deposit, I would get one.

The Macro View

About Matein Khalid

Matein Khalid

Matein Khalid is Chief Investment Officer of Asas Capital in the DIFC; he is responsible for global investment strategy and the development of the multi family office platform. He has worked in Wall Street money centre banks, securities firms and hedge funds in New York, London, Chicago and Geneva. In addition, he has been an advisor for royal investment offices in the Gulf for 8 years. Mr Khalid has four degrees in finance, economics, banking and international relations from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He is a director at the American College of Dubai and has taught MBA level courses in commercial/investment banking at the American University of Sharjah and British University of Dubai. He writes the Global Investing columns for Khaleej Times, Gulf Business and Oman Economic Review.

Articles by Matein Khalid

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