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GROWTH IS A BETTER STORY THAN VALUE Neither numbers, nor charts are sufficient in themselves: there must be a story!

The Economist

About a dozen times a year, Halkin Services holds a speaker event in London. The interests of our group of mainly financial professions are vast and wide, spanning macroeconomics and credit, global investment strategy and risk, intelligent technical analysis, gold and alternative investments, innovations in technology from biotech to electric vehicles. At a recent Halkin dinner, we invited Robin Griffiths, also a Halkin director, to reflect on his personal journey as an investment strategist and to articulate his key insights of multi-asset investing, shaped by over more than 50 years of experience.

He began with the observation that neither numbers, nor charts are sufficient in themselves: there must be a story! What he didn’t say, but inferred, is that growth is a better story than value. Specifically, he explained the ECU asset technical ranking model, whose recent outputs are shown in figure 1. His main rule for fundamental analysis is that investors should focus on stocks that are part of an index. If it is not in the index, for all practical purposes, it does not exist. Robin uses the 200-day moving average and the position of the current price in relation to it, as his starting point. Robin allocates equities to five categories (Strongest, Strong, Neutral, Weak, and Weakest). Investors should focus on the top 10 stocks. The central idea is to hold the assets for at least three months and not to worry about daily changes in prices during this period.

The Economist

About Peter Warburton

Peter Warburton

Dr Peter Warburton is director of Economic Perspectives Ltd, an international consultancy, and managing director of Halkin Services Ltd. He was economist to Ruffer LLP, an investment management company, for 15 years and spent a similar length of time in the City as economic advisor and UK economist for the investment bank Robert Fleming and at Lehman Brothers. Previously, he was an economic researcher, forecaster and lecturer at the London Business School and what is now the Cass Business School. He published Debt and Delusion in 1999. He has been a member of the IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee since its inception in 1997. He is a contributor to the Practical History of Financial Markets course run by Didasko, an education company, at Edinburgh University, and teaches occasionally at Cardiff Business School.

Articles by Peter Warburton

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