How far will UK house prices fall? – The Property Chronicle
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How far will UK house prices fall?

The Economist

Monopoly houses balanced on one pound coins

Sometimes you spot something that you cannot let pass and that has happened this morning. There is an interesting article in the Financial Times Alphaville section by a couple of portfolio manager’s at Man Group suggesting inflation is coming. So far so good with the only issue being they are a couple of months or so behind us on here. But there is a catch as I have replied.

Thank you for the article. However I do have an issue with this.

“We are unprepared for inflation and few of us alive have ever experienced what it’s like to trade in an inflationary environment”

Anyone who has bought a house in the UK and quite a few other places has learned to do this as prices rose so much.  It is simply that (supported by the FT economics editor)it was decided by the establishment to exclude such things from the inflation data. Then when forced to try to reflect it they use fantasy imputed rents which are never paid.

In the Euro area they continue to ignore this subject in their inflation measure CPI ( HICP) as even some ECB policy makers have noted recently.

So yes there has been inflation it is just that the major inflation indices have been designed to look away now.

This is an issue which I would shout from the rooftops if I could as it explains why so many feel that inflation indices do not reflect their own circumstances. As an example ECB policy maker Phillip Lane pointed out that when asked people thought that housing costs were 33% of their expenditure but that the Euro area consumer inflation measure (HICP) only counted 6% or so ( actual rents). This has different impacts as Italy has seen very little house price growth but the Netherlands had an annual rate of 8% in May compared to this.

In May, HICP-based prices of goods and services in the Netherlands were 1.1 percent up year-on-year, versus 1.0 percent in April.

Even Statistics Netherlands points it out.

Unlike the CPI, the HICP does not take into account the costs related to home ownership.

UK House Prices

After years and indeed decades of house price rises in the UK ( there were some falls in 2008/09 but the last major fall was 1990-92). We now face a situation which will send a chill down the spine of the Bank of England so let me hand you over to The Nationwide from earlier this week.

UK house prices fell by 1.4% in the month of June, after taking account of seasonal effects, following a 1.7% fall in May. On a seasonally adjusted basis, house prices in June were 3.2% lower than in April.

That will cause scenes at the Bank of England and that is before we get to this.

Annual house price growth slowed to -0.1%, from 1.8% in May. This is the first time that annual house price growth has been in negative territory since December 2012.

There is significance in that timing because that was the time the Funding for Lending Scheme was introduced. It was badged as being for smaller businesses for deflection but quickly saw mortgage rates fall around 0.9% by my calculations and later the effect went as high as 2% according to the Bank of England. By that route net mortgage lending went positive in the summer of 2013 and the house price carousel started to build again.

London

As a London boy ( lives in Battersea, born at Waterloo) this especially caught my eye in the Nationwide report.

Annual house price growth in London edged higher, with prices up 2.1% in Q2. Average prices in the capital are now just 3% below the all-time highs recorded in Q1 2017 and 55% above their 2007 levels (UK prices remain 19% higher than their 2007 peak).

Not only do we get an idea of the scale of the house price move that our official statisticians have turned their blind eye too.But then we have the claim that there is annual house price growth in London. I am rather dubious based on this from Daniel Farey-Jones who has been looking at actual rents as shown below.

Bloomsbury, down 30% to £1,517………Belgravia, down 20% to £4,312…………Mayfair, down 31%

We are in the Des Res zone so let us have some examples from more “street” areas.

Elephant (& Castle), down 20%………Marylebone, down 20%……..Borough Market, down 33%…….Fitzrovia, down 25%……Clerkenwell, down 20%

I think we get the idea and there is even something for Gerry Rafferty fans.

Baker Street, down 28%

You used to think that it was so easy

You used to say that it was so easy

But you’re trying, you’re trying now

Another year and then you’d be happy

Just one more year and then you’d be happy

But you’re crying, you’re crying now.

These are to some extent anecdotes and there will be bias in the selection but even so there is a clear message which does not sit well with the Nationwide claim about house price rises in London. At a minimum some renters may be looking at selling. That of course has its own issues with as we noted with the Bank of England data on Monday.

The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase fell to a new series low in May, of 9,300 (Chart 5). This was, almost 90% below the February level (Chart 5) and around a third of their trough during the financial crisis in 2008.

The Bank of England






The Economist

About Shaun Richards

Shaun is an independent economist who studied at the London School of Economics. His speciality is monetary economics. Shaun worked in the City of London for several investment banks and then on his own account over a period of 15 years. After initially working in the government bond department at Phillips and Drew Ltd. he moved on into the derivatives arena with options of all types being a speciality.

Articles by Shaun Richards

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