Why the Governor of Bank of england is happy – The Property Chronicle
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Why the Governor of Bank of england is happy

The Economist

This morning there will have been scenes at the Bank of England. Indeed there will have been jostling amongst the staff as they rush to be the one who presents the morning meeting. Whoever grabbed the gig will be facing a Governor who has a wide beaming smile as his mind anticipates raiding the well-stocked wine cellar later. Perhaps the cake trolley will be filled with everyone’s favourites as well. What will cause such happiness?

Sharp increase in July pushes house prices to highest ever levels ( Halifax )

Unwitting passers-by may hear a murmur which sounds like “The Wealth Effects! The Wealth Effects!” because that is exactly what it is. This mentality has seeped its way through the UK establishment now as the Deputy National Statistician Jonathan Athow parroted such a line during a recent online conference on how he plans to neuter the Retail Price Index.

What are the numbers? The Halifax reported quite a surge last month.

Following four months of decline, average house prices in July experienced their greatest month on month increase this year, up 1.6% from June and comfortably offsetting losses in 2020. The average house price

in July is the highest it has ever been since the Halifax House Price Index began, 3.8% higher than a year ago.

If we look at levels we get a context to the house price boom the UK has seen in recent decades as we note that an index set at 100 in 1992 was at 416.6 in July. Putting that another way the average price is now £241,604. Care is needed with such averages because they vary between different organisations quite a but partly because as you can see the numbers come in for some torture.

The standardised average price is calculated using the HPI’s mix adjusted methodology………The standardised index is seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Bureau of the Census X-11 moving-average method based on a rolling 84-month series. Each month, the seasonally adjusted figure for the same month a year ago and last month’s figure are subject to revision.

84 months!

Why?

As we switch to the question posed by Carly Simon we are told this.

The latest data adds to the emerging view that the market is experiencing a surprising spike post lockdown. As pent-up demand from the period of lockdown is released into a largely open housing market, a low supply of available homes is helping to exert upwards pressure on house prices. Supported by the government’s initiative of a significant cut in stamp duty, and evidence from households and agents

suggesting that confidence is currently growing, the immediate future for the housing market looks brighter






The Economist

About Shaun Richards

Shaun is an independent economist who studied at the London School of Economics. His speciality is monetary economics. Shaun worked in the City of London for several investment banks and then on his own account over a period of 15 years. After initially working in the government bond department at Phillips and Drew Ltd. he moved on into the derivatives arena with options of all types being a speciality.

Articles by Shaun Richards

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