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THE DEBATE ON HIGHER RATES: LET BATTLE COMMENCE Dr Peter Warburton replies to Robin Marshall's response to his article on higher rates

The Economist

Peter Warburton replies to Robin Marshall’s response to his article.

I am grateful to Robin Marshall for his comments on my article. I would like to respond to his substantive points, as follows.

It is true that real yields on Tips have edged higher, towards 1%, but the real Fed funds rate remains zero, in terms of core CPI inflation, and negative, in terms of headline CPI inflation or producer price inflation. Historically, there has never been a conjunction of real rates at such lows when the unemployment rate is at or close to its cyclical nadir.  

The Economist

About Peter Warburton

Peter Warburton

Dr Peter Warburton is director of Economic Perspectives Ltd, an international consultancy, and managing director of Halkin Services Ltd. He was economist to Ruffer LLP, an investment management company, for 15 years and spent a similar length of time in the City as economic advisor and UK economist for the investment bank Robert Fleming and at Lehman Brothers. Previously, he was an economic researcher, forecaster and lecturer at the London Business School and what is now the Cass Business School. He published Debt and Delusion in 1999. He has been a member of the IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee since its inception in 1997. He is a contributor to the Practical History of Financial Markets course run by Didasko, an education company, at Edinburgh University, and teaches occasionally at Cardiff Business School.

Articles by Peter Warburton

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