

An old doctrine of municipal control, embedded in a 100-year-old court case out of Ohio (Euclid v Ambler Realty) established separation of uses. That was perfectly fine in an era which needed a municipal tool to, say, separate hazardous and noxious manufacturing fumes...
Time to end zoning across the USA

Six US real estate themes for 2025
Trump, AVs, data centres, alternative sectors, distress, and more. As we look ahead to 2025, I’ll give the same caveat I gave last year: nobody can predict the future. If I knew were interest rates were headed, I’d be trading bonds, not writing a...
Six US real estate themes for 2025

US homes have been getting more affordable since the 70s
When the shortage bros accidentally demonstrate that zoning is a trivial part of the story. Random Walk will make it two antagonistic posts in a row. Enjoy. housing shortage steelman payment-to-income ratios skyrocketing totally stagnant, if not lower debunking the...
US homes have been getting more affordable since the 70s

The best-case scenario for Trump’s second term
“God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.” — Otto von Bismarck Happy Thanksgiving, folks! A friend asked me to write an optimistic post about the best-case scenario for the upcoming Trump presidency. So here is that post....
The best-case scenario for Trump’s second term

Commercial real estate turning a corner (and other real estate charts)
Commercial real estate turning a corner? CMBS special servicing rates keep rising (and that’s good) net-new distress is smaller conditions are getting Sloos desiderata on REITs, who loaded-up for a mortgage origination binge that wasn’t, permits per capita, and the...
Commercial real estate turning a corner (and other real estate charts)