The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures changes in housing costs in ways that change slowly and arrive too late. Studies from the BLS, Federal Reserve Banks and prominent economists find lags of 12-18 months before changes in rents and/or house prices finally get reported as higher or lower housing inflation in CPI or PCE inflation […]
americas
All Housing is Still Affordable Housing: “Seen and Unseen” Edition
A little more than a year ago I wrote a piece in this space called “All Housing is Affordable Housing.” The claim was that the essential step toward reducing the housing shortage was to make it legal to build new affordable housing. I did an estimate of the break-even cost for a new apartment in […]
So Why Aren’t We Paying Down the National Debt
If you believe the media hype, a storm awaits America. The US government will have to fight off neo-Nazi religious fanatics, massive climate change, financial armageddon, mass species extinction, alien invasion, dollar dominance collapse, Russia and/or China, near-earth celestial objects, new pandemics, systemic racism, and evil billionaires, likely all at the same time. While more […]
Secession is here: States, cities and the wealthy are already withdrawing from America
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican from Georgia, wants a “national divorce.” In her view, another Civil War is inevitable unless red and blue states form separate countries. She has plenty of company on the right, where a host of others – 52% of Trump voters, Donald Trump himself and prominent Texas Republicans – have endorsed various forms of secession in recent years. […]
The myth of voting with one’s wallet
Originally published September 2020. Do Americans “vote with their wallets?” This near-ubiquitous cliche seems at first to pass the test of common sense. Why wouldn’t people vote for the candidates under whom they’ll do the best financially? A wealthy voter should favor the candidate who will lower their taxes. A chronically unemployed voter should support […]
The Fed Is Bankrupt
ederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently testified before Congress on the current state of the US economy. In addition to monetary policy, Powell was questioned about the Fed’s regulatory proposals regarding cryptocurrencies and climate-related financial risks. Barely mentioned, however, was the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed has experienced significant operating losses over the last six months, which have […]
When Federal interest payments come to exceed the military budget
Time to stop defending the rest of the world. A new year dawns bright, with the US hurtling over the fiscal cliff. The lame duck Congress voted for a pork-packed $1.7tr budget bill. As the saying goes, it’s only money! At a time of enormous domestic need, Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell pushed an extra $45bn for Ukraine, declaring […]
The war on woke capitalism
Here’s what they get wrong. Ron DeSantis, Florida’s Republican governor and likely future presidential contender, has opened up a new front in his party’s war on “woke capitalism”. He is proposing to change the rules around how public bodies within Florida borrow from the markets by issuing bonds. The proposal is that they would no longer […]
The diversity dodge
Elite universities have embarked on a quest for diversity. They have devoted hundreds of millions of dollars to obtaining a diverse faculty. Many universities now require applicants for faculty positions or promotion to file diversity statements — statements attesting to the author’s commitment to diversity and the actions he has taken or will take to advance it. At my […]
S&P 500 CAPE valuation and forecast for 2023
Like most stock market indices around the world, the S&P 500 did not have a particularly good 2022. Shortly after reaching a new all-time high in 2021, the index went from 4,766 at the start of 2022 to 3,840 by the end, recording a capital loss for the year of 19.4%. From its all-time high […]