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Wall Street carnage and Walt Disney

I will never forget last week’s stock market carnage. Global equities lost $5.2 trillion in value. The Dow Jones plunged 2000 plus points, with two 1000 point falls, its worst week since the post-Lehman meltdown in October 2008. The Chicago Volatility Index (VIX) has tripled to 34 as I write as fear replaced greed with a vengeance. The 2/10 US Treasury note spread has widened to 75 basis points, a telltale signal that investors fear inflation risk. Like Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke... Read More >

Recent Articles:

Oil refinery at night The bullish case for Saudi Arabian stock market 6 reasons why the world financial markets will embrace this unloved stock market in 2018
2018 is the year the world financial markets will embrace the unloved, underowned Saudi stock market, whose TASI index is down 42% since mid-2014. Why? One, the kingdom has reassumed its role as OPEC’s swing producer after it cut its output by Read More >
Eagle The spike in three month LIBOR is bad news for borrowers Why the world is on the eve of a major rise in interest rates
I had projected a bloodbath in the US Treasury bond market since late 2016, when it was obvious that Trump’s tax reform would double the US budget deficit at the same time as the Federal Reserve prepared to 'normalize' or shrink its balance Read More >
Burj Khalifa in Dubai and aeroplane GII’s Amazon logistics deal is strategic winner for Dubai! Plus my thoughts on the forthcoming oversupply problem in Dubai's residential market
Dubai-based Gulf Islamic Investments (GII) acquired a one million square foot Amazon logistics centre in Dortmund, Germany for $144 million. This deal is a testament to the boutique global merchant bank created in Dubai by GII’s co-founder/CEO Read More >
Dubai skyscrapers with palm tree Dubai property market trends in 2018 What the new year has in store for the UAE's real estate
The rise in Brent crude to $60 a barrel and the trade volume ballast generated by the world’s first post Lehman synchronised economic recovery is hugely positive for UAE economic growth in 2018. After all, the UAE is unique because Abu Read More >
High rise building with balconies Goldmines and landmines in the property market My latest thoughts on global property investment
I am often asked by investors to articulate my 'philosophy' of real estate investing. Tough question. My ideal deal is one where it is possible to buy brick and mortar assets at 60–70% of replacement cost. This usually occurs in the aftermath Read More >
Computer screen showing stock price movements Greed and fear in the global stock market What the week's news means for investors
US and global equities surged on news that the US House of Representatives passed the tax reform bill, Cisco and Walmart posted blowout earnings and a potential bidding war emerged for Fox’s media assets. The rally on Thursday followed a week Read More >
Close up detail of banknote The end of easy money Why emerging markets will pay a high price
2017 has been a wonderful year for major emerging markets, thanks to a 7% fall in the US Dollar Index, no hard landing in China, the end of recessions in Brazil and Russia, falls in inflation that enabled central bank easing and stimulated Read More >
Dubai skyscrapers with palm tree Why the Emaar development IPO will make money for investors The latest in UAE property development news
Emaar Properties will sell 20% of its UAE development portfolio in an initial public offering in November. This is the first IPO in the UAE capital markets in the last three years and follows bellwether offerings such as Emaar Malls and Emaar Read More >
Mount Fuji with Cherry Blossom, view from Lake Kawaguchiko, Japan The Japanese stock market is not yet overvalued Why a yen hedged Japanese equities portfolio is absolutely essential
Japan experienced two “lost decades” of deflation and financial distress after its stock market and property market bubble burst in 1990. The Nikkei Dow index experienced one of history’s longest, most savage bear market, falling from Read More >
Cranes outlined against the sunset Saudi Arabia and the crude oil price surge Why September was an historic month for the global crude oil market
September 2017 was an historic month for the global crude oil market. West Texas rose to $52 and Brent rose to $58 as financial markets finally accepted that Saudi Arabia has been successful in brokering high compliance rates with last year’s Read More >
Numbers on a digital screen The bloodbath in bitcoin has only just begun Why cryptocurrencies are doomed to fail
Jamie Dimon, the unanointed king of Wall Street and chief executive of New York banking colossus JP Morgan did not mince his words. He called bitcoin “a fraud”, a speculative bubble comparable to the Dutch tulip mania of the 17th century and Read More >
Digital screen with abstract reflections The bullish case for Japan’s undervalued stock market Why Japan is the cheapest developed world stock market in 2017
The North Korea crisis has led to a 1000 point decline in the Nikkei. Japan is the cheapest developed world stock market in 2017. Any spasm of risk aversion leads to a rise in the Japanese yen and a correction in its Nikkei Dow averages lower. Read More >
London street with phone box and bright lights The anatomy of a British pound collapse Our Macro commentator on the outlook for sterling
It took a North Korean ballistic missile launch and Hurricane Harvey’s devastation of the $500 billion Houston/Galveston/Corpus Christi economy to push sterling higher to 1.2950 against the US dollar. While the British pound is the most Read More >
A pile of gold coins and bars The US dollar plunge and emerging market currencies Matein Khalid brings us the latest currencies news
The US dollar plunged after Janet Yellen did not talk about Fed monetary tightening and Mario Draghi did not protest 1.19 Euro at the Jackson Hole central banking symposium. This is a green light for the carry trade in emerging market currencies. Read More >
Skyscrapers seen from above The Trump White House and US stock market risk With the Volatility Index at 14, Wall Street’s pendulum of greed and fear has unquestionably tilted to fear
Trump’s post Charlottesville remarks, the Barcelona terrorist attacks and Cisco’s results unnerved the US stock market bulls last week. Friday was a surreal moment in the history of Wall Street. It was entirely rational for traders on the New Read More >
Chess pieces on a chessboard Global political instability: a threat to the markets? A macro view of volatility and market resilience
The old stock exchange cliché goes “markets go up like an escalator, go down like an unhinged elevator”. The world learnt this lesson the hard way as geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea escalated to nuclear brinkmanship. Read More >
Computer screen showing stock price movements Ten macro reasons to buy Brazil shares Our Macro View commentator explains why he's buying into the emerging market
“Brazil is a country of tomorrow and always will be.” General Charles de Gaulle dissed Latin America’s largest economy with Gallic disdain. Quelle horreur! Yet I have been fascinated by the magical land of samba, carnival, Pele, Gisele, Read More >
A chart showing upwards progression The hunt for value in global equities Matein Khalid explores the dramatic shift in the US stock market from growth/momentum to value shares
The US stock market has been resilient to the political and policy firestorms created by the Trump White House. Trump’s failure to enact tax reform or a major fiscal stimulus has restrained but not destroyed the 'animal spirits' of the Wall Read More >
Brown bear in forest London property faces a bear market in 2018 Why the UK is heading for a period of stagflation
Prime London home prices (Mayfair, Kensington, Belgravia, Chelsea) are now down 20% from their pre-Brexit peaks. Theresa May’s general election gamble and the surprising success of the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn has negatively impacted Read More >
Abstract digital numbers Europe faces macro storm clouds this autumn My predictions for the next few months
European equities were the classic 'pain trade' of 2017, the bull market’s wall of worry was scalable, even a slam dunk. Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen were defeated in the Dutch and French election, reducing political risk in Europe. Greece Read More >
A house roof with two dormer windows and the sun shining between them The Canadian house price bubble has now burst Plus the latest on Morgan Stanley and emerging markets
The Canadian housing bubble has gone so ballistic that the Ontario government is considering a 15% tax on foreign buyers to cool down the speculative spiral in Toronto condominiums. The smart money on Wall Street’s latest trade is to short Read More >
Three dollar bills tucked into the top of a hardback book Wall Street: a hawkish Federal Reserve and the US dollar comeback Also in this week's column: investing in Fox News and the Standard Oil twins
Dr Janet Yellen surprised the financial markets with her hawkish take on interest rate policy and inflation even as the FOMC raised the Fed Funds rate for the fourth time since December 2015. Despite successive weak CPI and auto/retail sales Read More >
Digital screen with abstract reflections The fallout from the UK election is self-evident Plus: the latest on investing in Singapore and the future of the US Dollar Index
Like David Cameron’s Brexit referendum, Theresa May gambled her political career on her decision to hold a snap election to consolidate the Tory majority in the House of Commons. With 318 seats, Mrs May’s gamble backfired and the Tories are Read More >
Sunlight coming through high rise buildings Can UAE emerge as an aircraft leasing hub? Plus my thoughts on Central Europe and the dollar
I was stunned to read a Boeing report that forecasts that the global passenger jet fleet will more than double to 45,250 by 2035. Given that almost 20,000 of the world’s in-service aircraft will be retired or converted to freighters in the next Read More >
Aerial view of a city Saudi Arabia and the age of shale In this week's update on global asset markets, Matein Khalid considers shale, European equities, and the emerging market of Argentina
Saudi Arabia engineered a short covering rally and cyclical bottom in Brent crude with its 15 May agreement with Russia to roll over last November’s oil output cuts for another nine months. The kingdom has, in essence, resumed its traditional Read More >
Digital tablet, mobile phone, credit card with lens flare What Trump’s political scandal means for investors The latest on the White House's influence on the financial markets, from Matein Khalid
Image (c) iStockphoto The financial markets have finally cottoned on to the increasingly sordid political realities created by the Trump White House. Trump could well be impeached for obstruction of justice if he tried to pressure FBI Director Read More >
Chess pieces on a chessboard The latest on oil and gas shares Plus, Matein Khalid shares his thoughts on investing in the Japanese stock market
The 11% fall in the price of crude oil in the past month on panic selling in the energy futures pits of New York, London and Singapore has unnerved the world’s leading oil and gas exporters. Saudi Arabia will both extend last November’s OPEC Read More >
Blurred photograph of crowds walking through London What next for G-10 currencies and crude oil?
The euro, the French stock market, OAT-German debt interest rates spreads, the Volatility Index (VIX) and the ghosts of Vichy, Oradour and Algérie française convince me that Emmanuel Macron will be the next President of France on Sunday. So I Read More >
Pile of euro coins on a chart France’s election and global financial risks
The French election is a game changer for global financial markets for multiple reasons. One: the worst case scenario of far right (Le Pen) and far left (Melenchon) as second round candidates for the Elysee Palace on May 7th is no longer a Read More >
Numbers on a digital screen Emerging markets: an update
Emerging market equities have been the darling asset class de jour in 2017, mainly in Asia and Latin America, despite the March FOMC rate hike, a US Dollar Index at or above 100 and a mini-swoon in crude oil after a Saudi-Russian output cut spat. Read More >
Dubai skyscrapers with palm tree Market View: Dubai property is in a bear market
I find it laughable when investment bankers come to my office and try to assure me that warehouse and logistics space in Dubai is a “defensive” investment. Mathematical reality does not support this argument. Rents in Jebel Ali Free Zone Read More >
Globe showing South America Macro Ideas: The bullish case for emerging markets and European equities
Emerging market equities have outperformed the S&P 500 index and the flagship asset class index fund (symbol EEM) is up 12.5% in 2017. The US dollar and the ten-year US Treasury bond yield have both fallen since the March 14 FOMC rate hike, Read More >
China skyline Market View: Are Chinese shares in a stealth bull market?
Chinese equities have risen steadily higher in 2017 in a stealth bull markets, despite $700 billion in capital flight last year, a fall in the renminbi to 6.90, periodic liquidity squeezes in the Shanghai money market, draconian credit controls, Read More >
Oil refinery at night Market View: What next for crude oil, silver and copper equities? 
I doubt if West Texas crude oil rebounds beyond $52 in the short term without clear evidence that Saudi Arabia and its GCC allies can persuade Russia, Iraq, Algeria and Iran to keep their output cut promises amid a global glut and resurgent US Read More >


Investor's Notebook

Smart people from around the world share their thoughts

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The Macro View

The week's financial news and how it connects across all asset classes

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Fintech, proptech and what it all means

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A sideways look at the world of wine

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The Fund Manager

Real money - the capital allocators

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The Architect

Some of the profession's best minds

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The Auctioneer

What's going on in the auction world

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Residential Investor

Making money from residential property investment

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The Professor

Analysis and opinion from the academic sphere

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Face to Face

Jonathan Davis interviews a leading figure in the property world

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The Farmer

Land economy, agriculture, conservation, soil & property rights

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The Analyst

Spotlight on real estate equities

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The History Man

A look back at previous cycles, events, characters

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The Economist

Money, rates and prices

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The Agent

Reflections on estate agency, today and in past times

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Political Insider

The inside scoop on Westminster and Whitehall

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Editorial Notes

The latest thoughts from the editorial team

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